Moscow - Minsk: three very bad outcome scenarios

Continuing for several days in a row to remain almost the main news In the domestic information space, the detention of 33 Russians in Belarus is still being discussed by our media and various experts in a relatively calm and restrained tone. The majority of those who speak out on this topic are inclined to consider what is happening as another “father’s vybryk”, one of the many that have become, alas, his anti-Russian demarches. Simple explanations are certainly good ...

However, if we do not intend to be content with them, but want to get to the bottom of what is happening, then first of all we will have to admit the obvious: everything here is far from being so unambiguous and straightforward as it might seem at first glance.

These are not games anymore

Perhaps the main problem in assessing the actions of Alyaksandr Lukashenka (and there can be no doubt that everything that happens is his initiative) is that, whatever one may say, but the actions of the Belarusian leader, who is diligently spinning hysteria around “ Russian militants ”, are not just hostile towards our country much more than all the similar steps he had taken earlier. They are categorically illogical! Moreover, they are frankly suicidal. This is if we consider the situation within the framework of the usual categories of relations between Minsk and Moscow, as well as events in various countries of the “post-Soviet space”. The state led by him in front of everyone is not just moving smoothly, but rather rapidly flies in the direction of the very, that neither is the classic "Maidan" - a textbook "color revolution", prepared and directed by Western "champions of democracy" according to the scenario "falsification elections ”.

The scale of popular protests, for the first time in many years, expressed with an unprecedented openness and mass character for Belarus, is absolutely unprecedented. As a matter of fact, the fire is already burning - all that remains is to pour "gasoline" into it from the heart and there is no doubt that experts in such actions are not just ready, but are in positions in the same Minsk. The only state that Lukashenka, in principle, could count on if the situation develops according to the worst scenario is Russia. And now, instead of, even if for a while, even if following not extremely dubious in his case "brotherly feelings", but the elementary instinct of self-preservation, curtail Russophobic rhetoric for a while and take at least half a step towards Moscow, the "father" publicly brings charges against it , which may well serve as a pretext for starting a war.

At the time of this writing (on the evening of August 2), all hopes that Alexander Grigorievich was "darkened", and the extremely ugly story with the massive and absolutely unreasonable detention of Russian citizens will end with a "happy ending" that will allow both countries without losing face , pretend that nothing actually happened, smashed to smithereens. Alas, Dmitry Peskov, who expressed hope on behalf of the Kremlin that “the Belarusian special services will figure everything out and let the Russians go,” turned out to be useless as a visionary. The Minsk Themis showed the maximum severity towards our compatriots - at the request of the local Investigative Committee and the sanction of the prosecutor's office, they were taken into custody, that is, arrested. In relation to them, in the most complete seriousness, a process has begun, in common parlance called "stitching a case." This is not about accusations of terrorism, as some of our media have already rushed to announce. Investigators and judges “try on” Articles 13 and 2, part 293 of Articles of the Criminal Code of Belarus to the detained employees of Russian private security companies trying to get to new places of work. Taken together, it sounds like "preparing to participate in riots." And "pulls", respectively, for 8 years behind bars - according to local laws, responsibility for "cooking" is no different from punishment for a committed act.

If it comes to retraining from the second to the first part of the same article (and this may well happen), then we will talk about terms of 15 years. An even more unpleasant detail is the desire of the Belarusian side to involve Kiev in this case, where they are already more than actively demanding the extradition of most of the detainees. And obviously not for awarding certificates of honor for strengthening friendship between peoples ...

Pre-election PR? No, political piracy ...

At least a dozen of those arrested in Belarus were declared by the Prosecutor's Office to be “non-existent” and the SBU “citizens of Ukraine” who “participated in the activities of terrorist groups and committed war crimes in Donbass”. As far as we know, Kiev presented Minsk to a completely official request for the extradition of not only them, but 28 out of 33 our compatriots in custody. Will he be satisfied? It is difficult to say - especially considering that the list of “militants” was transferred to the Foreign Ministry by the “non-existent” just at the initiative of the Belarusian side: “to check for involvement in crimes”. Well, that's where we went to great lengths. Note that Dmitry Peskov's statement that Moscow “does not recognize the Ukrainian citizenship of the detainees” and considers all of them to be Russians, is being ignored demonstratively.

In fact, we are talking about a clearly planned and carefully prepared hostage-taking, carried out in the best traditions of "gentlemen of fortune" flying under the black flag. But the subject of bargaining here is clearly much more weighty than the usual suitcases in such cases, tightly packed with dollar bills. Lukashenko himself does not dare to deal with the citizens of Russia - therefore, he attracts Ukrainian "law enforcement officers" who are thirsty for "Moscow blood" as potential executioners for them. At the same time, it is quite obvious: he personally does not believe in the tales of “another two hundred Russian militants” secretly wandering around Belarus with the most ill intentions. Likewise, in the ravings of his own head of the Security Council, Andrei Ravkov, about "secret camps near Pskov and Nevel", where a whole horde of similar adversaries trains, "learning sniper skills and explosives." Otherwise, the "dad" should have been recognized as hopelessly insane, but this, of course, is not so. Far from it.

Already someone, and Alexander Grigorievich, knows for certain how bad things are in his country with real "pro-Russian forces" capable of at least some kind of consolidated and serious actions. So much so that he had to appoint poor Babariko to the role of the "Moscow candidate", from whom he is the same "Kremlin agent" as, excuse me, from Andrei Makarevich. One hundred percent nationalist and the best friend of the Zmagars. With fake "Wagnerians" - absolutely the same story. And the versions put forward by some that Lukashenka was “disoriented” and “framed” by some of his “pro-Western advisers” who deceived the gullible president with stories about “specialists from PMCs” sent from Moscow to his heart do not stand up to criticism either.

You should not make a naive fool out of Alexander Grigorievich. Before us is the most experienced, as they say, hardened politician with vast experience and absolute awareness of the surrounding realities. His talk about the "innocent soldiers" and the "dirty intentions" of those who allegedly "sent them to Belarus" are just part of the game, undoubtedly started by him. Speaking about the "terrorist intentions" of the detainees, Lukashenka himself acts in the best traditions of terrorists: he simply needed hostages to ensure the pre-election "victory over Moscow", so he captured them. The employees of the private security company would not have turned up, one must think, at the worst, mushroom pickers dressed in camouflage would have come down. It did not come to this solely because of the excellent awareness of the Belarusian special services about the transit routes of some of our fellow citizens, who have rather specific professions, who are forced to fly through Minsk to countries where it is simply impossible to get from Russia.

Now, actually, about the possible scenarios. In fact, Lukashenko accused Russia of attempting a coup d'etat in his own country. And, judging by his actions, he intends to exploit this topic to the end. In principle, further steps in the development of the situation in the current vein may well be the rupture of diplomatic ties and the extreme aggravation of interstate relations. But Alexander Grigorievich, most likely, does not need this.

So, scenario one - from the "dad": Moscow, fearing the prospect of extraditing its citizens to the executioners from Kiev, is making really serious concessions. At least in matters of energy supplies. Until the abolition of the "tax maneuver" or other equally large-scale steps that, according to Lukashenka, are capable of ensuring the further more or less comfortable existence of the "Belarusian emirates" at the expense of the Russian budget. Alexander Grigorievich, having "won" the elections, appears before his own people as an almost omnipotent ruler of epic proportions, capable of both preventing confusion and the Kremlin "bending" at its own will. What are the prospects for Russia? It is extremely difficult to express censorship here. In any case, there is no need to speak of any international authority and weight of a country that allows it to take its citizens hostage, and resignedly fulfills the demands put forward.

Scenario Two - half-hearted: Lukashenka uses the current situation to further whipping up the atmosphere in the country, introducing, if not a state of emergency during the elections and some period after their holding, then something very similar to him. Under the pretext of possible "mass riots", which will certainly be arranged by "sent Cossacks", if not "tighten the screws" to the limit, freedom of assembly, movement of citizens and all other "freedoms" still nominally available in Belarus are limited. In the eyes of the West, at the same time, a cunning "dad" who openly conducts the most real political repression, looks like a "fighter against Russian aggression." This, again, in his sincere conviction, will "write off" everything that is happening there now, and even some much tougher things, to which things may well come to, if the people nevertheless take to the streets after a predetermined "will ". Well, and Moscow ... You can make peace with Moscow and then. They will endure! They didn’t tolerate that.

scenario third - the most negative: Alexander Grigorievich really decided to "surrender" the country to the West. Quite a possible option, no matter how incredible it may seem at first glance. After all, some specific firms have methods of persuasion and coercion that even some presidents cannot resist. The examples of Kuchma and Yanukovich (who sincerely believed in Western "guarantees" and almost lost their heads) are proof of this. Again, faced with a choice between the inevitable "Maidan" with absolutely unpredictable consequences and the "civilized" transfer of power to a Western-appointed successor (not Tikhanovsky or Tsepkalo, of course, but at least the same Makei), Lukashenka can "float" ... And why shouldn't the overriding condition for such a deal be a complete break in relations with Russia, moreover, the creation of a situation after which reconciliation between Moscow and Minsk (regardless of the names of the leaders there) will become extremely problematic? In this format, you can expect anything, up to and including the extradition of the arrested Russians (or some part of them) to Ukraine.

I must say that the third scenario today is practically not considered by anyone and is not taken into account. And in vain ... No matter how late it was later. In any case, time will tell, however, there are no good options for the development of relations between present-day Minsk and Moscow.
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  1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Alexander) 3 August 2020 09: 20
    The crafty one follows in the footsteps of Yanukovych, further in Belarus everything will be the same as in Ukraine.
  2. Igor Pavlovich Offline Igor Pavlovich
    Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 3 August 2020 09: 24
    I absolutely do not understand the hype around mercenaries at the state level - no one in Russia has canceled the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation Article 359. Mercenarism

    1. The recruitment, training, financing or other material support of a mercenary, as well as its use in armed conflict or military operations -
    are punished with imprisonment for a term of four to fifteen years ...

    etc. etc.
    Foreign citizens - all the more, nafig, from the beach - deportation, and let the "foreign" state deal with them - feed them with gruel, issue prison uniforms and pay for maintenance services in remote places at the expense of their "foreign" citizens, not Russian. am
    1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
      Sapsan136 (Alexander) 3 August 2020 10: 23
      This is on condition that these persons did harm to Russia, but there is no court. If the Evil One extradits the citizens of the Russian Federation to Bandera, even if neither he nor his subjects come to the Russian Federation anymore, they may not be welcomed like that.
    2. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 3 August 2020 12: 27
      I believe that their attitude to your point of view will be indicated here repeatedly, I will try to supplement it and, so to speak, look at the problem from a slightly different angle.

      I absolutely do not understand the hype around mercenaries at the state level - no one in Russia has canceled the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation Article 359.

      Are you proposing to extend Russian jurisdiction to the territory of a neighboring state? It's time for you to the "Peacemaker". laughing Contents of Art. 359 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, it would be fascinating to discuss, for example, with Yarosh, for his participation in the Chechen war (and this is the territory of Russia) he will be warmly welcomed. Ukrainian Themis, which is typical, has no claims to him.
      Are you proposing to try for alleged crimes committed abroad? At the same time, you prefer not to notice the crimes committed by foreigners here. Do you dream of bringing order to a particular country? It will not work, this phenomenon is not limited to state borders, sorry for the tautology. Believe it or not, the horses haven't canceled this article either:

      Article 447
      1. Recruitment, financing, material support, training of mercenaries for the purpose of using in armed conflicts of other states or violent actions aimed at overthrowing state power or violating territorial integrity, as well as the use of mercenaries in military conflicts or actions

      That does not prevent the appearance of any Estonian "volunteers" and "Texas Rangers".
      It is impossible not to comply with any norms, while demanding their observance from others. Yarosh does not telepath on a birch, he was not sent to the cellars of the Lubyanka. If you intend to solve the problem, does it not seem logical for the Ukrainian side to take the first step?
  3. beeper Offline beeper
    beeper 3 August 2020 11: 02
    Unfortunately-third option!
    IMHO - "Cunning" AHL (with the older sons, already well attached to the helm of the authorities, and the youngest) has long been held hostage and sings to the tune of its pro-Western Russophobic environment, which (no longer hiding at all!) Surrenders RB to its Washington hucksters.
    By provocation with the captured Russian citizens, the accomplices in a bandit manner "knit in blood" - they cut off all escape routes to the AHL, knowing full well its crafty hypocrisy and opportunistic skills of repeated "changing shoes in a jump"! winked

    And this anti-Russian "process" (which has noticeably accelerated since the spring of 2014) has been well-nourished by the Kremlin and only recently limited the (already pupated) Belarusian "AntiRussia" in its immense subsidies ?!
    Apparently, the "cunning" Moscow "strategists" were never taught anything by the sad "experience" with the allegedly "pro-Russian" Judeo-Mazepa Yanyk and the many ten-year-old (together, five billionaires "declared by" pechenyushnitsa "Vika Nuland!) Russian sponsorship of the transformation of" independent "Ukraine into a Russophobic pro-American" AntiRussia "??! request

    The hype with horror stories about the alleged "Russian interference in the Belarusian elections" is also needed by the Washington puppets as an informational "smoke screen".
    With these anti-Russian insinuations sucked out of their fingers, they "fill the tanks" with Russophobic biased Western inhabitants (the so-called "world community") - to cover up the impudent large-scale American interference in the presidential elections and the violent pro-Western "reformatting" of Belarus!
    It's exactly the same illogical and completely absurd for common sense, the Kiev Maidan junta accuses Russia of allegedly organizing a bloody Kiev coup d'état - "Euromaidan"! fool

    The insidious Washington neo-colonialists are known for using the same "working methods" of Maidan coups over and over again, only slightly applying to local specifics; "and" rasping ", known from the first" color revolutions ", from the pro-American militants of the Serbian" Otpor "!)
    In Belarus, the Washington DCs are acting according to the same patterns, while still keeping within their "algorithm of colonial democratization." And the AHL is just a "sacrificial pawn (not even an" officer ")" on their "chessboard", all the moves have already been planned question questions ??! winked ) ... alas!
    It's a pity, of course, because Luka had a considerable Chance to really enter Russian and World History from a capital letter (at one time I even thought that the AHL could, until August 2008 was his sincere sympathizer, and until the spring of 2014 he believed that he was still not entirely hopeless), and not so ungrateful to "plunge" into the "N-note with half-erased small print", under the line at the very bottom of the page ... sincerely It's a pity - not this, as it turned out, a small-town fool who stupidly missed such an Opportunity , but for the People and the State it is insulting!
  4. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 3 August 2020 11: 12
    Fourth option. Personal opinion, I do not impose on anyone.

    Border conditions:
    1. Lukashenka is not an idiot.
    2. Lukashenka wants to stay in power.

    The election results will be falsified. In any case, everyone on the Internet is talking about it. As a result, the West does not recognize the legitimacy of Lukashenka and the country will begin to shake the Maidan.
    In an effort to seize the initiative, Lukashenka is trying with all his might to knock weapons out of the hands of the opposition and shows the West that he is a pro-Western politician. He wants the West to recognize the election results and then there will be no Maidan in the country.
    So my conclusion is completely opposite. Lukashenka seeks to avoid Maidan and therefore pursues an anti-Russian policy. Hence the provocations and the possible closure of the border with Russia.
    Conclusion - in order to preserve his personal power and prevent Maidan, Lukashenka will increasingly slide into the position of anti-Russia. The example of Yanukovych is in front of his eyes and does not attract at all. And there are no pro-Russian forces in Belarus. As was not seen in Ukraine.
  5. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 3 August 2020 11: 16
    Let me suggest a fourth option, Latin American, or Arabic, so to speak. Part of the military command, loyal to the Belarusian people and the Union State, arrests Lukashenko and forces him to resign. Provisional power passes into their hands, martial law is declared for 1 year to prepare new elections, and at this time the 5th column of pro-Western NGOs is eliminated. In any case, under such a scenario, Belarus will not repeat the fate of neighboring Ukraine and will not allow Ruins in its homeland. And Russia knows how to be generous ...
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 3 August 2020 13: 21
      The fourth option is a good way out, good compared to the first three, of course. A forester who will disperse both the Germans and the partisans is an acceptable solution to the problem. The military has motivation, if we put aside "duty, honor, the fate of the country" and so on, they cannot help but understand that if the country goes "western rails", their careers can be given up. But I doubt whether there will be a "passionate core" in the orderly ranks of an army that has not fought for 30 years. No. Who else? The Ministry of Internal Affairs cannot do that. KGB? Look at this shame, a new leader. Surely, the monument to Dzerzhinsky turned over from such a sight in the storeroom.
      And what is most sad, apparently, the Maidan cannot be avoided.
  6. Yes, what is there to pickle? We chop off from Russo-Belov Mogilev, Vitebsk and Gomel regions, where RUSSIANS live, and there - an iron wall on the cordon and walk, Papa, to Europe.
  7. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 3 August 2020 12: 33
    In fact, all this hype is clearly orchestrated by the enemies.

    Either earlier, for others, "the investigation will figure it out", then "come on, come on, come on" .....

    The hype goes on, and the authorities sneeze at it. Have you bought gas? - bought. Have you bought fighters? - bought. Have you bought it yet? - bought.
    All. Money doesn't smell.
  8. kot711 Offline kot711
    kot711 (vov) 3 August 2020 12: 41
    Why Russophobic? Hatred of Russian oligarchs does not mean Russophobia. He understands what will happen if the so-called "unification" happens. Although his statement about "non-Russian wars" and "NATO will defend" does not inspire respect for him, it is clear that he has started some kind of "cunning plan" of his own.
  9. Valentine Offline Valentine
    Valentine (Valentin) 3 August 2020 14: 06
    Well, our eyes have opened, and we no longer have "brothers"? That's nice, now no one will stick a knife in our back, except for the Central Asians, from whom we can also expect everything ... But what about our super analysts, special services, for so many years he crap in our pockets, and we almost they wore it on their hands, lisped with him, pleased him, and he gave us a huge fig.
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 3 August 2020 17: 53
      And who said that the "super-analysts" did not foresee this? It seems to me that recently this was discussed here ...
  10. Tektor Offline Tektor
    Tektor (Tektor) 3 August 2020 18: 22
    It would be necessary to denounce the Union State, exclude Belarus from the EAEU and impose economic sanctions before the August 9 elections.
  11. yaelxninsh Offline yaelxninsh
    yaelxninsh (Janis Elksninsh) 3 August 2020 20: 37
    It looks like Ukraine's close contact with Belarus has long been. They shared with them plans to start military operations throughout the territory of the Russian Federation. In Belarus, they do not want to participate on the side of the Russian Federation. They insured themselves by the arrest of Russian citizens.
    1. Essex62 Offline Essex62
      Essex62 (Alexander) 4 August 2020 03: 00
      Only the platoon was slowed down, but the noise. Although, of course, on the eve of the offensive of the horses, which is broadcast from every Russian iron, every combat unit counts.
      But the Maidan must be extinguished in the bud. No one, of course, will either plant or even give up 404 of our fighters. Dad bargains for something from our bourgeois swamp. Well, what to do, there is no oil and gas in Belarus, on which, in fact, our zero is kept. Remove this support from under the current Russian government, the Maidan will flare up here too. Already zaluzhnye will try to swing, there would be significant reasons.
  12. art_2 Offline art_2
    art_2 (Mikhail Yuryevich Artemyev) 4 August 2020 10: 31
    Yes, Putin, at the moment when the whole of Russia is rebelling against him, contrived to quarrel with the last ally. How will England not accept?
  13. Valery V. Offline Valery V.
    Valery V. (Valery V.) 4 August 2020 12: 39
    And I am sure - Lukashenka reached an agreement with VVP, and everything that happens is a pre-planned performance. In order to give Lukashenka the image of a defender of national interests and the bravest leader ("he is not afraid of Putin himself !!"). As a result, the electorate, ready to vote for his rivals, smoothly flows into the camp of his supporters. And the United States, looking at Lukashenko's bickering with the Russian Federation, will no longer call him "the executioner of the Belarusian people", and after the victory (of course, whose victory) they will not start a Maidan ..
  14. vladimir mudov Offline vladimir mudov
    vladimir mudov (vladimir mudov) 5 August 2020 13: 31
    What do you think, does the MINSK MONSTER ARREST cowardly Putin right in his Moscow bunker? What the "chatterbox, scoundrel and criminal" Kvachkov did not do, the MINSK MONSTER will do, albeit an even bigger WEEK, but stronger than Putin and Kvachkov!
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