What Russia and Belarus will lose from the rupture of economic ties


Very soon, on August 9, the next presidential elections will be held in Belarus. Much will depend on their outcome in further relations between Minsk and Moscow. President Lukashenko can hardly be called “pro-Russian,” and in recent years he has broken many plates with the Kremlin. However, it is not a fact that his replacement, who could come as a result of the “Belarusian Maidan,” if the West does not recognize the election results, will be better for us.


Since the Kremlin has no "candidate" for it, any alternative to Lukashenko will be pro-Western, which means that Belarus will follow the path of Ukraine, tearing political, military and economic ties with Russia. What can our countries lose?

Moscow and Minsk are closely interconnected. Belarus is an important transit route to Europe, accounting for 4% of Russian exports. However, the scale of economies and the degree of dependence on each other are incomparable.

At firstBelarus is heavily dependent on Russian gas, purchasing 20 billion cubic meters annually. Moreover, its GTS belongs to Gazprom. For political reasons, Minsk may refuse purchases and switch to the use of "European gas". But first, he will have to nationalize the GTS by paying Gazprom the $ 5 billion stipulated in the agreement, as well as returning all his investments. After that, it will be possible to switch the pipeline to reverse mode, pumping gas from Ukraine, Poland or Lithuania, if an interconnector is made.

Another question is that there is no free gas there for Belarusians. Two years later, Warsaw completely abandons purchases from Gazprom, in exchange for expanding the capacity of the LNG terminal and building the Baltic Pipe. The surplus will be sold with pleasure, but with an extra charge. Then Minsk needs to keep its fists for Nord Stream 2 so that the Germans can achieve the lifting of the restrictions on the Third Energy Package. There will be “blue fuel”, but the intermediary's margin will not go anywhere.

Secondlydependence on Russian oil remains. Yes, demonstration purchases from alternative suppliers are underway, but you have to pay more for it. Only Moscow "according to Friendship" supplies raw materials at a price lower than the world one. With the loss of the “allied discount”, the products of Belarusian refineries will no longer have a competitive advantage over European ones. The profitable business will be done away with, it is predicted that at least one refinery will stop working.

Thirdly, the rise in the price of energy resources will painfully hit the rest of the Belarusian economy. So, agriculture feels quite comfortable only on cheap fuel and lubricants, as well as inexpensive electricity obtained from gas generation. With the severance of trade relations, Minsk will also lose access to the Russian market, which accounts for over 40% of exports.

It turns out that Belarus will lose much more than Russia. But will that stop her pro-Western politicians? The example of Ukraine shows that it is not.
19 comments
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  1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 31 July 2020 14: 54
    -4
    You are itching to do everything. You keep coming up with scenarios of how to tear the economy of Belarus to shreds, with the help of Russian oligarchs. Oh well.

    ... now I'm over 30, it's time to dream.
    1. polev66 Offline polev66
      polev66 (Alexander) 31 July 2020 15: 03
      0
      Where is at least one word in the article about the oligarchs?
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. Alexey Semenenko (Alexey Semenenko) 7 August 2020 13: 25
        -2
        Don't you see? And they are.
    2. Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
      Cheburashk (Vladimir) 31 July 2020 16: 07
      +1
      Perhaps you meant the struggle between the businesses of Russia and Belarus? And what is the Belarusian economy in general? Is it one that is very volatile and, in fact, not modernized? There will be no need to tear such an economy, which will soon have no sales markets (and this is how the majority works for a warehouse).
      And Beltransgaz has not yet bought out Gazprom, what were the salaries there? How did people say later when they compared salary? So no one will grab and tear what has already been torn apart!
    3. King3214 Offline King3214
      King3214 (Sergius) 31 July 2020 16: 11
      -1
      Would it be more pleasant for you if the European oligarchs would tear the Belarusian economy to shreds?
      In Ukraine, they said so, it is more pleasant for them that their industry, built with the money of the entire USSR, was destroyed by the USA and the EU.
    4. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 31 July 2020 16: 12
      -1
      Am I making up? I actually love Belarus, my paternal ancestors are from there.
    5. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 31 July 2020 18: 22
      -1
      You are itching to do everything. You keep coming up with scenarios of how to tear the economy of Belarus to shreds, with the help of Russian oligarchs. Oh well.

      The collective farmer will ruin everything anyway. He doesn't need help. Each cockroach has a slipper. smile
    6. You will tear yourself up, this way Carlito Ukraine has already passed.
  2. Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 31 July 2020 16: 01
    +1
    Here, in my opinion, one important question still arises: this is Kaliningrad. If Belarus becomes pro-Western, then what will hinder it simply out of harm or something else to make it as difficult as possible to cross its territory towards Kaliningrad. Plus, Lithuania, too, will not miss such a chance to spoil Russia. And the airspace can also simply be closed.
    But these are my assumptions. I would be glad if I am mistaken.
    And one more: The anaconda loop is a US plan to strangle Russia. Read, do not be lazy, very interesting !!!!!!!!!
    1. King3214 Offline King3214
      King3214 (Sergius) 31 July 2020 16: 13
      -1
      Does Belarus border on Kaliningrad? Do you have your cards?
      1. Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
        Cheburashk (Vladimir) 31 July 2020 22: 21
        +1
        Dear, but the transit through Belarus does not go to Kaliningrad ????? Not? Or do people use the teleport? So do not juggle !! And read carefully what I wrote. There is nothing about the common border !!!!!!!!!
  3. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 31 July 2020 16: 50
    +1
    Our media have done a lot to show Lukashenka not from his best side. It began with exotic products that Lukashenka allegedly personally supplied to our country. Something also floats to the West from our country. But this does not mean that the president is in charge of this. What is happening in Belarus now goes beyond reason. Perhaps people are fed up with one personality. Even in the movies, the same actors get bored. I do not know.
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 31 July 2020 18: 37
      +2
      Our media have done a lot to show Lukashenka not from his best side.

      Lukashenko himself did a lot to show himself not from his best side. yes

      It began with exotic products that Lukashenka allegedly personally supplied to our country. Something is also sailing from our country to the West.

      Isn't that so? The country has long turned into an offshore, the entire sanctioning system goes through it.

      But this does not mean that the president is in charge of this.

      Who? It may not be he who leads, but everything is done with his blessing. Do you think that a person who personally runs around the cowshed knows nothing? Are we talking about the same Lukashenka? Is this the same "tough business executive"?

      What is happening in Belarus now goes beyond reason.

      This is to the very point. good The chairman went crazy.

      Perhaps people are fed up with one personality. Even in the movies, the same actors get bored. I do not know.

      Good actors in films do not get bored; they become popular favorites. Apparently he's not that good ...
      1. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 1 August 2020 05: 59
        +1
        When I was little, I also believed that the king glued stickers on Moroccan oranges.
        1. 123 Offline 123
          123 (123) 1 August 2020 07: 37
          +1
          When I was little, I also believed that the king glued stickers on Moroccan oranges.

          And when I was little, I kept thinking, why is it written Moros, if they are Moroccan? laughing
          Coming back to the topic, do you think he doesn't know? The country is not that big, 9,5 million, according to official data, of which 700 thousand are in our country, 300 thousand in Poland, a total of 8,5 million. This is not China or India, and the territory is not Russia or Brazil. It is not difficult to fly around on a service helicopter. It turns out that while he runs through the cowsheds and factories, they pull the smuggling by? Oh, how bad it turns out. no Everyone deceives him, cannot keep track of everything. Maybe it's time for him to retire?
  4. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 31 July 2020 17: 26
    0
    With the severance of trade relations, Minsk will also lose access to the Russian market, which accounts for over 40% of exports.

    I'm afraid that this will not be limited, a significant part of exports are petroleum products, without Russian oil, exports to Europe are also questionable. In the meantime, without any restrictions, for the 1st quarter of 2020, exports are approximately 15%, imports are approximately -20%.
    By the way, I looked at the data on trade in Belarus, exports to the Russian Federation are not 40, but about 50%, to Ukraine about 10%. Exports to Russia decreased by about 7%.

    Exports are growing significantly, Tunisia 11 times, Benin 6,9 times, Cameroon 3,3 times, South Africa 3,5 times. Surely, this is not potatoes or oil, the defense industry is working. laughing
    Follow the link section - Data on foreign trade of the Republic of Belarus for individual countries in January - May 2020.

    https://www.belstat.gov.by/ofitsialnaya-statistika/realny-sector-ekonomiki/vneshnyaya-torgovlya/
  5. Potapov Offline Potapov
    Potapov (Valery) 1 August 2020 08: 39
    0
    Live how you want. But shit on each other's heads, not us ... Our oligarchs are not a gift, although they are colorful, but their own lackeys are given to live for now ...
    1. The comment was deleted.
  6. zenion Offline zenion
    zenion (zinovy) 1 August 2020 16: 25
    -1
    It turns out that you need to please the West, not the Belarusians. Written in Russian.
  7. Alexey Semenenko (Alexey Semenenko) 7 August 2020 13: 24
    -1
    The author "forgot" to say that Russia will lose ...