After oil: how Russia's wealth will grow


Difficult times are coming for Russia. OPEC experts are increasingly inclined to believe that the "coronacrisis" has become a powerful catalyst for the phase-out of fossil fuels. For our country, which last year accounted for almost 60% of exports, 45% of the federal budget and about 20% of GDP for oil and gas, these are bad news.


Despite the OPEC + deal, concluded following the disappointing results of the "oil war", prices for "black gold" remain at the level of $ 40 per barrel. No one is dreaming of the former $ 150 per barrel, world demand has fallen by a third and may no longer recover. A new reality has come.

Of course, there is no talk of a complete rejection of oil. The cheaper raw materials will be more in demand in developing countries: India, Asia and Latin America, Africa. Moreover, inexpensive oil will even contribute to the economic development of these poor states. Also, do not forget that "black gold" is not only fuel, but also an irreplaceable raw material for petrochemical products. Therefore, there is no need to talk about a world without oil in the foreseeable future.

However, the so-called “golden billion” is taking a different path. The EU has announced plans to completely phase out fossil fuels in 30 years. Renewable energy sources are actively developing in the EU and the USA, and more and more are moving from ICEs in cars to electric motors. Germany, the locomotive of the European economics, from the atom and coal is moving towards the widespread use of natural gas, and in the medium term - towards the "green hydrogen". The most developed regions on the planet, the United States and the EU, are increasingly greening, setting the tone for fashions that others will later follow.

All this forces the largest players in the energy market to revise their development strategies. For example, Shell and BP are scaling back investments in hard-to-recover oil projects. For Rosneft, this new reality does not bring anything good: the feasibility of developing the Arctic shelf and the Bazhenov formation becomes a big question. The affairs of Gazprom on the European market already do not look the best. It is quite obvious that the former economic model of the Russian Federation is beginning to exhaust itself faster and faster. This does not mean that it is time to bury us, but the need for change is no longer in doubt. What can become our "new oil"?

At first, we need a forced decoupling from the raw material dependence, created artificially. The emission of each ruble is carried out by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation against the US dollar received from exports. Since 60% of exports are accounted for by oil and gas, this is how the notorious "dependence on raw materials" is formed: any negative changes in the global situation will immediately affect us.

Secondly, only the lazy does not speak about the vital necessity of the reindustrialization of Russia. It's time to move from words to deeds.

Thirdly, the domestic agricultural sector is gaining more and more strength, which we will discuss in detail told earlier. Despite the "coronavirus", Russia is setting new records for the export of grain, fish, meat, sugar, and so on. China is a growing market, where chicken meat is in great demand due to the effects of African swine fever. The PRC accounts for about 40% of the global demand for ice cream. At the end of last year, domestic confectioners became the first in sales of chocolate in the Middle Kingdom. This in turn pulls out the indicators of the sugar industry. But the main export commodity of Russia in the field of agriculture is, of course, grain. According to forecasts, our country will account for more than a fifth of world production, which causes great concern among Western competitors.

Summing up, we can say that not only oil and gas can increase our common welfare. The main thing is to work.
23 comments
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  1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 30 July 2020 11: 43
    -1
    As expected, the gas-oil needle got hooked and does not work, to the natural joy the development of other areas of the economy began .. More such news and new directions ... But in the country gas consumer networks are not developed, the field of activity is extensive, GAZPROM only to work ...
  2. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 30 July 2020 11: 51
    +4
    Russia sets new records for the export of grain, fish, meat

    Capelin fish, which cost a penny in the USSR, now costs 360 rubles per 1 kg. Salmon, which, as they say, is very rich in Russia - from 200 for pink salmon, up to 500 for coho salmon. Ice in general for 1 thousand rubles. Beef meat - 500 rubles / 1 kg, a little cheaper - lamb. This is very expensive for an average salary of 20-25 thousand rubles.
    With grain, yes, better. But it is heard from everywhere that the seed grain fund comes to the Russian Federation from abroad. If this is true, then what could be the result of the next sanctions? It is high time to have their own seed stations, and for this to develop science, which is now in a mendicant position.
    And more jobs not only in large cities, but also in small ones.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 30 July 2020 11: 57
      +3
      Quote: Bulanov
      But it is heard from everywhere that the seed grain fund comes to the Russian Federation from abroad. If this is true, then what could be the result of the next sanctions? It is high time to have their own seed stations, and for this to develop science, which is now in a mendicant position.

      It's like that. That is why it is said that we must work in this direction ...
      1. Digital error Offline Digital error
        Digital error (Eugene) 30 July 2020 13: 22
        +1
        Quote: Marzhetsky
        we need to work in this direction

        You can work in different ways - in particular, on galleys it is much more efficient to row than to plow. From the President's Address to the Federal Assembly, 2001:

        We still live primarily in a "rental" rather than a productive economy. Our economic system, in fact, has changed little. Where does the main money come from? On oil, on gas, on metals, on other raw materials. The resulting additional income from exports is either eaten away, or feeds capital outflows, or, at best, is invested in the same resource sector. Last year, more than 60 percent of the total investment in industry was directed to the fuel and energy complex. This happened, in particular, because export earnings could not find effective application in other sectors of the economy Russia.

        http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/36350/print

        After 11 years, the task was set to create and modernize 2020 million jobs by 25, and after another 8 years, the task was to increase the number of people employed in small and medium-sized businesses, including individual entrepreneurs and self-employed, to 2030 million people by 25.
        I am afraid that now, thanks to the will of 78%, 19 years of stability in this matter could last until 2036, if not until 2070:

        https://ria.ru/20200306/1568258719.html

        However, as the majority decided, it should be so - this is precisely what democracy consists of. request
    2. Lawyer Offline Lawyer
      Lawyer (Olaf) 31 July 2020 07: 18
      -4
      Grain fund - okay, you can do it yourself.
      And what to do with the depleting soils of the Kuban, from which these crops are exported?
      Yes, and all this is small, food in the world is made more and more, and prices for raw materials and grain are not so high.
      And storing wheat is harder than oil while waiting for the price.
      1. Citizen Mѣshkov (Sergѣi) 2 August 2020 00: 14
        0
        Is agriculture just grain? There is also meat and milk, fruit and vegetable ...
  3. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 30 July 2020 13: 45
    +3
    The development of the agricultural sector is good, it is the country's food security and it is very important. But countries that focused on agriculture never achieved anything. Only a developed industry, the production of goods with high added value, can make the country developed and promising.
    1. Lawyer Offline Lawyer
      Lawyer (Olaf) 31 July 2020 07: 21
      -4
      And someone encroaches on the security of the country AT ALL? For what?
      Feed 140 million idlers chasing each other with machine guns like miners and tractor drivers?
      Donbass produces a lot of products now?
      And the stupid West or East simply dreams that the entire Russian Federation would sit on his neck, otherwise they have few Africans.
      1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 31 July 2020 07: 33
        +6
        Mr. Olaf, don't drive. Everyone remembers perfectly well how in the 90s rotten meat with an expired shelf life was supplied to the Russian Federation, and a lot of valuable things were exported from Russia, and for a pittance. Donbass is a Russian land, it was part of Russia even at a time when the UKROPs grazed Polish pigs as part of the Commonwealth and we, on our own land, will figure out how we should live and what to do, without Olafof, and Mykol.
        1. Lawyer Offline Lawyer
          Lawyer (Olaf) 31 July 2020 14: 38
          -3
          I have not seen this rotten meat, since I have already left your sad land, but it seems to me very strongly that it has rotted in Russian refrigerators, this time. Valuable, you say? This is you, probably, about the summary of the commission of Marina Salier, eh? Or, again, the West did not give, although you paid?
          In addition to rotten meat, the West sent bags of sugar, flour, washing powder and gave money HUMANITARALLY, without return!
          Although, of course, also with cut American paper. :(
          It is not the first time for them to deceive the Russians - it is enough to look at the list supplied to the RSFSR by the ARA organization.
          About Lend-Lease I generally keep quiet - they made me pay more, you bastards!
          Although it is not clear why it is the Russian Ivan with American stew and American boot, fighting for the Smolensk village, must also pay the Yankees for stew and boot, eh?
          And also nasty aerocobras. In general, only Pokryshkins could fly on them.
          1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
            Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 3 August 2020 08: 31
            +4
            When it seems that you need to be baptized, this time. And what, Russia did not have its own washing powder, or the West spread rot on domestic producers, through the corrupt officials of the Russian Federation ?! Sugar in Russia has always been full of its own, and now, like dirt, something, and sugar beets in the Russian Federation grows well. So keep quiet. A little more than 4000 Sherman tanks were delivered to the USSR, the only western tank that was worth something. Everything else is junk. The Yankees categorically refused to supply the B-17 to the USSR. More pilots crashed on Airacobras than died from German fire, the Air Force of England refused this flying coffin altogether. The fact that Soviet pilots flew well even on lousy planes speaks of their high flight training. If you are rude to the Russian Federation, then The Hague can become the second Hiroshima. As for the borders of Ukraine, which you allude to, Russia recognized them on the condition that:
            1) Ukraine is a neutral state ... So what ?! Ukraine gathered in NATO under Yushchenko ...
            2) Ukraine fulfills the treaty of friendship with the Russian Federation ... So what ?! Ukraine has never even betrayed thieves who fled from the Russian Federation to the Russian Federation, let alone the bandits who fought against the Russian Federation in Chechnya, such as Korchinsky, Bobrovich, Mazur and the like, and altogether. For the war against the Russian Federation in Ossetia in 2008, officers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces received apartments from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine ... So after Ukraine did not fulfill its part of the agreement, the Russian Federation has every right to score on its part of the agreement and withdraw its recognition of the Bandera borders.
        2. Lawyer Offline Lawyer
          Lawyer (Olaf) 31 July 2020 14: 43
          -3
          Yeah I do not mind.
          If you like to feed Donbass too - your business.
          But let's first take a look at the borders that the Russian Federation recognized during the division of the USSR.
          But if you don't pay attention to these little things, you can end up in The Hague and pay compensation for digging someone else's garden for another 50 years.;)))
          Although fools need to be taught, of course.
          So go ahead, carry on.
          1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 2 August 2020 13: 53
            0
            Olaf-Moishe, sit in your new homeland and do not vilify Russia, since you have left, leave the mood to crap with you, so forget Russia and you will not have to throw shit ...
  4. Coronacrisis has become a powerful catalyst for the phase-out of fossil fuels.

    - this is bullshit.
  5. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 30 July 2020 18: 37
    +1
    But the main export commodity of Russia in the field of agriculture is, of course, grain. According to forecasts, our country will account for more than a fifth of world production, which causes great concern among Western competitors.

    - Ha ... - That's right ....:
    - Let's grow a rich grain harvest ...;
    - We will buy American and Chinese combines, grain trucks (there are already a lot of these Chinese trucks in the Omsk region ... - they carry Omsk wheat with might and main ... - from grain conveyors to Omsk elevators and mills) and other harvesting equipment ..;
    - Let's fill up all this harvesting and transport equipment with expensive diesel fuel and gasoline ....;
    - So we will "get hold of" ... - when we sell this Russian grain abroad ...
    - Pupkin's arithmetic:
    - The cost of Russian grain itself (taking into account the competitiveness among other suppliers) - minus the cost of American and Chinese combines and other harvesting and transport equipment (and plus to this minus - also imported spare parts and components) ... - and minus the cost of fuel and lubricants for all this harvesting and transport equipment ... - I will not mention the overhead costs of processing grain at elevators and grain acceptance ... - where there are also a lot of imported equipment ...
    - And what is there in the bottom line ???
    - The story with the Russian pipeline gas is almost repeated; what is shipped to Europe, China and ... and to the moon ...
    - It turns out that "good" is a business ... - to drive Russian grain for export ... - Hahah ...
  6. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
    Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 30 July 2020 22: 41
    -2
    It is quite obvious that the former economic model of the Russian Federation is beginning to exhaust itself faster and faster.

    You are confusing something. This liberalism has exhausted itself.

    Despite the OPEC + deal, concluded following the disappointing results of the "oil war", prices for "black gold" remain at the level of $ 40 per barrel.

    Again, they confused something. The guarantor said that if the price is below 80, the world economy will collapse.

    What can become our "new oil"?

    So already decided. People are our new oil. It was not for nothing that Mishustin was appointed prime minister, he has experience in the production of new oil.
    PS It is not clear how the author received the positive prize.
    1. 123 Online 123
      123 (123) 31 July 2020 10: 25
      0
      Again, they confused something. The guarantor said that if the price is below 80, the world economy will collapse.

      The guarantor is rarely wrong. In some places this is happening right now. winked

      US economy collapses by record amount in QXNUMX
      The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a record fall in the US economy in the second quarter - almost 33% in annualized rates.

      https://www.rbc.ru/economics/30/07/2020/5f22bc5d9a79475c618f3376
      1. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
        Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 31 July 2020 13: 28
        -3
        What good news. Is it so sausage for them from falling oil prices? The ruble is falling for joy, I guess.

        https://www.mk.ru/economics/2020/07/31/kurs-dollara-prevysil-74-rublya.html
        1. 123 Online 123
          123 (123) 31 July 2020 13: 57
          0
          What good news.

          Glad you liked it. good

          Is it so sausage for them from falling oil prices?

          No, it is their sausage from the virtual economy and medicine, turned into a means to make money. In pursuit of inflated numbers on the monitor, they did not forget why it exists.
          The tale of hardworking Protestant "gnomes" who have been building economic strength bit by bit for centuries is crumbling before our eyes. Hope this doesn't hurt your peace of mind too much?

          The ruble is falling for joy, I guess.

          No, not from joy, but rather from the instability of the dollar-based financial system. The dollar exchange rate is more and more detached from reality, it is growing, as well as capitalization and other virtual "icons" for believing adepts. As a result, the value of companies is breaking records, the dollar is uncontrollably torn up, while the economy is crumbling. The inflated financial bubble should blow off steam. yes
          As for the ruble exchange rate, they are not particularly struggling to maintain it, a low exchange rate is beneficial to the government, makes it cheaper to fulfill social obligations, stimulates production growth, and makes exports more profitable. Believe it or not, the dollar against the euro is also falling. Surely for the joy? Or because of the oil price? winked
          1. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
            Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 31 July 2020 15: 08
            -2
            Quote: 123
            No, it is their sausage from the virtual economy and medicine, turned into a means to make money. In pursuit of inflated numbers on the monitor, they did not forget why it exists.
            The tale of hardworking Protestant "gnomes" who have been building economic strength bit by bit for centuries is crumbling before our eyes. Hope this doesn't hurt your peace of mind too much?

            Am I confused, oil is virtual? The guarantor said that if oil is below 80, the world economy will collapse. Have the Protestant gnomes stopped mining virtual, blown oil?

            Quote: 123
            No, not out of joy, rather, from the instability of the dollar-based financial system.

            Doesn't it overshadow the holiday on your street?

            Quote: 123
            The dollar exchange rate is more and more detached from reality, it is growing, as well as capitalization and other virtual "icons" for believing adepts.

            You are saying that the rate is falling, at least against the euro. You will decide.

            Quote: 123
            As for the ruble exchange rate, they are not particularly struggling to maintain it, a low exchange rate is beneficial to the government, makes it cheaper to fulfill social obligations, stimulates production growth, and makes exports more profitable.

            Yes Yes. And the problems of blacks (in the sense of citizens), whose incomes have been falling for the sixth consecutive year due to the weakening of the national currency, are the problems of citizens.
            1. 123 Online 123
              123 (123) 31 July 2020 16: 47
              +2
              Am I confused, oil is virtual?

              You write - got confused. In order not to get confused. yes The oil is real, the economy is mostly not. The superstructure turned out to be many times larger than the production basis. Virtual oil trading greatly exceeds its real amount.

              The guarantor said that if oil is below 80, the world economy will collapse. Have the Protestant gnomes stopped mining virtual, blown oil?

              Actually, the guarantors say a lot of things, one, for example, talked about a gas station torn to shreds, but this is so, by the way ...
              Do you think that everything is fine with the world economy now? Or does everything happen at the same time? Today oil at 79, extinguish the lights, snap fingers and the apocalypse in the morning? Large systems are inert.

              Have the Protestant gnomes stopped mining virtual, blown oil?

              As it turns out, they do it badly, they tried to establish production, you can see the result right now. The dwarfs turned out to be not so hardworking, they prefer something easier, print and trade money.

              Doesn't it overshadow the holiday on your street?

              Holidays on our street happen regardless of stock quotes overseas.

              You are saying that the rate is falling, at least against the euro. You will decide.

              As I say, the exchange rate becomes unstable, therefore, less convenient for international settlements. I can repeat - yes "the dollar exchange rate is increasingly detached from reality." It grows against the ruble, falls against the euro, then rises again. The landmark becomes blurred. It is very uncomfortable. There is no stability.
              The real cost of something becomes generally difficult to understand. The dollar is less and less reflective of real value. American exchanges are turning into cheats. Look at Tesla, the gnomes printed a lot, a lot of money, a snap of your fingers - and voila, fellow stocks are skyrocketing. The amounts received are comparable to the GDP of other countries. And people are looking at all these miracles, they have been working for decades to earn that kind of money, and not everyone will succeed, but here it’s done.
              Do you think someone likes it? And Musk is not alone, there are a lot of such companies. The Fed said - the dough is not measured, we will take everything ... endlessly. These are the rules of the game.

              Yes Yes. And the problems of blacks (in the sense of citizens), whose incomes have been falling for the sixth consecutive year due to the weakening of the national currency, are the problems of citizens.

              Do you think that the problems of blacks, in the sense of blacks, the sheriff "cares about"? This I mean that it is not worth making Mordor out of Russia, where people are rotten, and the light-faced elves take care of their citizens around the clock.
              Russia's financial capabilities are not so great. The situation cannot be remedied within the framework of the existing global financial system.
              How do you propose to return the ruble exchange rate to its previous positions? Sell ​​gold reserves? So we do not get them for nothing, unlike the USA, we first need to earn them, send something for export. We do not have a free emission center.
  7. 123 Online 123
    123 (123) 31 July 2020 11: 02
    +1
    The comments have already said everything about coronavirus as a catalyst, I will not repeat myself.

    However, the so-called “golden billion” is taking a different path. The EU has announced plans to completely phase out fossil fuels in 30 years.

    The tradition is fresh and hard to believe. Not all plans are destined to become reality.

    Germany, the locomotive of the European economy, is moving from the atom and coal to the widespread use of natural gas, and in the medium term - to the "green hydrogen". The most developed regions on the planet, the United States and the EU, are increasingly greening, setting the tone for fashions that others will later follow.

    The wizard of the emerald city sold to the light-faced elves a patent for the production of "green hydrogen" on an industrial scale? Some of the "most developed regions on the planet" turn green and pale for a slightly different reason. There, the economy has gone down by 30% and people are dying in hundreds of coronavirus every day.

    First, we need a forced decoupling from the artificial dependence on raw materials. The emission of each ruble is carried out by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation against the US dollar received from exports. Since 60% of exports are accounted for by oil and gas, this is how the notorious "dependence on raw materials" is formed: any negative changes in the global situation will immediately affect us.

    You seem to like the dependence, you just want it to look decent, apparently, the dependence on the volume of non-commodity exports sounds more decent to you. We need a forced decoupling from the dollar, the creation of an independent emission center. Otherwise, the problem cannot be solved.

    Secondly, only the lazy is not talking about the vital necessity of the reindustrialization of Russia. It's time to move from words to deeds.

    But in my opinion, only the lazy one speaks, and the laziest one. Others can go online and watch without getting up.
    Export of raw materials is not slow, but growing.

    https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/130853/

    Industrialization? It has been going for a long time.

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzQ0mjgA028ALJi83Oi6pDg

    Something is being done without the participation of the state, for private investment (there are several objects in the CIS).

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FpNq8kGMwBwBmEFpHDX1tOE6EXT5M0YW/view

    https://c4bb.ru/company/B2BGLOBAL/Karta_zavodov?utm_source=POPUP&utm_medium=MAP&utm_campaign=NEW
  8. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 2 August 2020 06: 05
    0
    A lot of good things are planned until 2030. But if all this is not entrusted to the government, then all this will remain good wishes.