BiznesAlert: "Water war" in Crimea will cost Russia dearly


The quality provision of the Crimean Peninsula with water is still in question. Russia is taking steps to resolve the problem, but mostly these are temporary measures that do not give the expected results. A war over water is not excluded, but now the Russians are using different methods of persuading Ukraine and the international community. Krzysztof Nezipor, an analyst and expert at the Center for Oriental Studies, talks about this in an interview with the Polish edition of BiznesAlert.


According to publicly available data, the situation with the water supply in Crimea is very difficult. At the beginning of July, there were about 82 million cubic meters of water in the Crimean reservoirs. For comparison, a year ago, when they talked about the difficult hydrological situation on the peninsula, these reservoirs contained about 200 million cubic meters of water. This means that the water supply has been cut by more than half in a year. Crimean authorities report annually the difficulties associated with water shortages - all of which indicate that the problem is becoming more serious every year, and efforts to change the situation are not bringing the expected benefits.

Despite financial investments in the construction of hydrological structures, the "water problem" has not yet been resolved. The Russians perform the simplest, least expensive, but also ineffective actions - the construction of artesian wells and the filling of reservoirs with water from them. In the short term, this measure works, but when played in the long term, it will have disastrous consequences for the entire ecosystem of Crimea. Massive drilling of wells will lead to a decrease in the level of groundwater and, as a result, to soil salinization. Ultimately, this will make the region's land unsuitable for agricultural activities.

In this regard, the Polish expert does not rule out a "water war" between Russia and Ukraine - Moscow may try to seize the Kakhovskoe reservoir. This was recently discussed by retired servicemen from the United States and Ukraine. The large-scale military exercises Kavkaz-2020, which will take place in September, may also be a reason for the start of hostilities. All types of the armed forces of the Russian Federation will have to take part in the attack on the reservoir. In addition, Russia will have to reckon with the possibility of confronting the Ukrainian army, which is already in a completely different state than in 2014 - since then, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have undergone a deep modernization. According to military experts, such a military operation could take several months.

But the situation is further complicated by the fact that the Kakhovsky Canal itself is in an unsuitable technical state - it has not been re-equipped since Soviet times, which means that up to 50 percent of the water will “disappear” during its transportation. That is, just getting the Kakhovskoye reservoir and the canal is only half the battle. The other half is launching and supporting their activities. Thus, a "water war" in Crimea can be very costly for Russia.
Photos used: Angu / wikimedia.org
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  1. Dima Dima_2 Offline
    Dima Dima_2 (Dima Dima) 29 July 2020 13: 42
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    It's time to build a water bridge)
    1. Larisa Larisa Offline
      Larisa Larisa (Larisa Larisa) 30 July 2020 00: 54
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      laughing from where to where?
      1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 30 July 2020 11: 14
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        Drinking water pipelines for the place of gas pipelines, business is no less profitable ... In Israel they will understand this ... For Crimea, too, but a wider field, - Central Asia with fertile agriculture, but an arid climate. Not to turn Siberian rivers there, but to build water pipelines ...
    2. Oleg Shlyapin Offline
      Oleg Shlyapin (oleg shlyapin) 4 August 2020 16: 32
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      Better to catch a water comet and throw it to the Crimea laughing
  2. beeper Offline
    beeper 29 July 2020 14: 44
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    Why is only the military option being considered, and precisely according to the most obvious losing patterns imposed (by the "roots" of the "blockade of Crimea" of 2014, when fugitive Crimean Turkomans, coupled with the Zapadenskaya Banderva, blew up the power transmission towers and blocked the North Crimean Canal) from overseas ??!
    After all there is a decades-old example of a successful solution by the Israeli authorities of the water problem in similar (aggressive blockade of the country from land), much more harsh, atmospheric conditions! yes
    After all, the Russian Federation has good relations with Israel, why not urgently agree with the Israelis on consultations and effective assistance in the fastest solution of the problem of water supply to Crimea by the construction of desalination plants - I am sure that Tel Aviv will not refuse Moscow - our countries are more than any other, in the first turn, our people and numerous family ties are connected - in Israel there is a large lobby of Russian-speaking "alims" with their offspring, will they really remain indifferent to the troubles of the Crimeans ?! wink
    This is also a good reason for the development of mutually beneficial long-term cooperation between Russia and Israel, not only in the production and operation of desalination plants, not to mention the fact that even the purchase of such desalination plants for very fabulous ones (if one of the manufacturers, using "force majeure ", he wants to make money infinitely) money, in the end it will be more profitable than a military adventure with an attempt to seize and defend, to keep in a working condition, the SC channel with unclear (and, most likely, very deplorable, since such a long communication, with hostile local authorities and part of the population are very vulnerable to sabotage, not to mention new "strict sanctions" and, already indisputable, "the stigma of the aggressor country"!) results!
    Constructive peaceful solutions are always more profitable than military adventures!
    IMHO
    1. Sergey Tokarev Offline
      Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 29 July 2020 16: 14
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      And where did the Kherson villagers look when the Tatars staged a blockade with raguli? Hoping to export to Europe? Russia without Ukrainian "experts" will figure out where to get water.
  3. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker 29 July 2020 14: 49
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    6 years have passed, "and things are still there". There was an article here about a fight to the bitter end. And I said that Putin does not know how to fight. This article is a confirmation of my words. He does not know how to fight, there is not enough education, to solve the water problem. Crimea squeezed out (I did the right thing), but education is not enough or the family does not allow to calculate what and how. First it was necessary to squeeze the water, Mariupol and Odessa, and then conclude the Minsk agreements! Putin is turning into a second Yeltsin before our very eyes.
    1. Sergey Tokarev Offline
      Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 29 July 2020 16: 20
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      Will you wring out the entire Dnieper together with the natives? When they kill each other, the last ancient plant will rise, the water in the Dnieper will be cleared of drains and corpses, then it will be possible to squeeze out the Dnieper water.
    2. Oleg Shlyapin Offline
      Oleg Shlyapin (oleg shlyapin) 4 August 2020 16: 45
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      Remind me how the "wringers" of Odessa ended their life? laughing I propose to come in person and squeeze out, and not give advice on the internet. laughing
  4. Bulanov Offline
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 29 July 2020 15: 01
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    It is cheaper to lay a pipe from the Volga-Don canal than to feed the prisoners.
    1. Sergey Tokarev Offline
      Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 29 July 2020 16: 24
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      It's not cheaper to feed them. And there will be no one to take prisoner.
      1. Oleg Shlyapin Offline
        Oleg Shlyapin (oleg shlyapin) 4 August 2020 16: 31
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        Specify - who are you feeding now? laughing
  5. Yuri 5347 Offline
    Yuri 5347 (Yuri) 29 July 2020 15: 11
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    ... well, nonsense))) mattress toppers are attributed to other methods, which they resort to themselves!
  6. King3214 Offline
    King3214 (Sergius) 29 July 2020 16: 05
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    Polish media is the sister of Ukrainian media. Two people who went crazy with Russophobia were empty-headed. It's not even worth wasting time.
    1. Oleg Shlyapin Offline
      Oleg Shlyapin (oleg shlyapin) 4 August 2020 16: 30
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      I ask the question as an artist to an artist - name 5 Ukrainian media resources known to you. And also - do you talk and talk Poland and ukraine? wassat
      1. King3214 Offline
        King3214 (Sergius) 4 August 2020 19: 17
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        About 10 years ago, Ukrainian media were monitored. A rich experience. I agree with the editor-in-chief of Echo of Moscow Venediktov - There is no journalism in Ukraine. There are no journalists either. There is only propaganda and propagandists, also a respected and necessary profession. But she has different tasks than journalists and journalism ...
        But understanding such "subtle" differences is not for Ukraine and its population.
  7. Larisa Larisa Offline
    Larisa Larisa (Larisa Larisa) 30 July 2020 00: 51
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    Putin is unable to capture anyone and anything.
    1. Oleg Shlyapin Offline
      Oleg Shlyapin (oleg shlyapin) 4 August 2020 16: 29
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      Well, I suggest the RF Aerospace Forces to bomb the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant immediately. laughing
    2. King3214 Offline
      King3214 (Sergius) 4 August 2020 20: 55
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      Especially when you don't need it.
  8. Sapsan136 Offline
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 30 July 2020 08: 30
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    In fact, Ukraine, having cut off the water to Crimea, is digging its own grave. Russia is not obliged to supply Ukraine with water from its rivers, and in Belarus they overdid it with the drainage of land and dry winds and tornadoes began in the Gomel region. Drought was noted in 10 regions of the Republic of Belarus. This year in Belarus there is a lot of rain and the problem, for a while, receded, but the situation is such that Minsk will solve its problems, it does not have enough water itself, and Ukraine, having ruined relations with its neighbors, will bite its elbows on the banks of the rapidly shallowing Dnieper.
    1. Oleg Shlyapin Offline
      Oleg Shlyapin (oleg shlyapin) 4 August 2020 16: 28
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      Wonderful! Start blocking the tributaries of the Dnieper. You can also spin the moon in the opposite direction. I sincerely wish you success in this field. laughing
      1. Sapsan136 Offline
        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 5 August 2020 09: 44
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        We will do without the Moon, and soon you will go to Poland to buy some water. laughing
        1. Oleg Shlyapin Offline
          Oleg Shlyapin (oleg shlyapin) 5 August 2020 13: 41
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          Soon is when?
          1. Sapsan136 Offline
            Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 5 August 2020 14: 13
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            Everything ends someday and you have to pay for everything in this life, and you will pay, do not hesitate, pay dearly, for EVERYTHING.
  9. Oleg Shlyapin Offline
    Oleg Shlyapin (oleg shlyapin) 4 August 2020 16: 24
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    A war for water is not excluded.

    Wonderful! To do this, the Russian Federation will have to capture not only the gateway through which water was supplied from the Kakhovsky reservoir to the North Crimean canal. By the way, the sluice is inoperative, and the canal has been damaged by the roots of sprouted trees in 6 years. According to Ukrainian estimates, the restoration will require $ 5 billion. This again - if he, the gateway, in the event of war, is not blown up.

    Second, to supply water to the Crimea, powerful pumps are needed. the level of the surface of Crimea is higher than the level of mainland Ukraine. For the operation of these locks, the most powerful in Ukraine and the third in the world in terms of capacity Zaporizhzhya NPP was used. It is 6 times more powerful than the 4th Chernobyl power unit, the accident of which is considered the biggest man-made disaster of the XNUMXth century. In addition, it is located on the bank of the Kakhovskoe reservoir, from which water was supplied to the North Crimean canal.

    And thirdly, the volume of water supplied to the Crimea was 30% of all water from the Dnieper. This is 380 tons per second or almost 12 cubic kilometers of water per year. So, there is no real alternative to this water and there will not be in principle. It will not be replaced or compensated by any wells or transfers from the Kuban.
  10. Oleg Shlyapin Offline
    Oleg Shlyapin (oleg shlyapin) 4 August 2020 16: 38
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    Quote: pishchak
    by the Israeli authorities of the water problem in similar (aggressive blockade of the country from land)

    I wonder what the reaction should be for a country from which you, acting as one of the guarantors of territorial integrity, took away part of its territory, unleashed a war, killed 16 people, crippled 000 people, and wounded over 25 people. displaced 000 people and caused losses of $ 60? Well, I'm really interested.
  11. Oleg Shlyapin Offline
    Oleg Shlyapin (oleg shlyapin) 4 August 2020 16: 40
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    Quote: pishchak
    The Russian Federation has good relations with Israel

    Perhaps that is why the Israeli Air Force periodically strike Russian "Shells" in Syria? laughing
  12. Oleg Shlyapin Offline
    Oleg Shlyapin (oleg shlyapin) 4 August 2020 21: 42
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    Quote: King3214
    About 10 years ago, Ukrainian media were monitored. A rich experience. I agree with the editor-in-chief of Echo of Moscow Venediktov - There is no journalism in Ukraine. There are no journalists either. There is only propaganda and propagandists, also a respected and necessary profession. But she has different tasks than journalists and journalism ...
    But understanding such "subtle" differences is not for Ukraine and its population.

    May I give you some advice? Try a brain transplant. sad
  13. Oleg Shlyapin Offline
    Oleg Shlyapin (oleg shlyapin) 5 August 2020 17: 02
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    Quote: Sapsan136
    Everything ends someday and you have to pay for everything in this life, and you will pay, do not hesitate, pay dearly, for EVERYTHING.

    That's for sure. Take care of the gold and foreign exchange reserve, after The Hague will have something to pay reparations. laughing