Russian-Turkish confrontation: why are we retreating in all directions?

Today, when the sudden aggravation of the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border is actively discussed and condemned in many countries, it is worth looking at this conflict from a slightly different angle. In fact, everything that happens is, first of all, another “glove” thrown into the face of Moscow by Ankara. To a number of Russian-Turkish "fronts" already existing today, one more is added.

And we are retreating again, no matter how painful it would be to admit this unpleasant truth. What lies behind those far from positive processes for our country, which the further, the more clearly visible in its relations with Turkey? The indecision of the Kremlin? Some kind of his "cunning plan"?

From Syria to Libya

Even if we briefly and superficially analyze at least the main events and milestones of Russian-Turkish relations of recent times, we can say that the period of “intensive development of comprehensive cooperation” between our states ends with the supply of Ankara S-400 Triumph air defense systems and the launch of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline ". Incidentally, it should be noted that the Turkish side benefited from all this, thus obtaining both the most advanced air defense systems and the guarantee of “blue fuel” supplies, as well as opportunities for very fruitful bargaining with Washington and Moscow at the same time. Moreover, as in politicalAnd in economic areas. After that, something completely different begins. Ankara, at first rather cautiously and moderately, and then more and more brazenly intervenes in the conflict on the territory of Syria, trying to squeeze Russia there. Everything comes to the almost open confrontation between the military of the two countries in Idlib and the aggravation of the situation to the brink of an armed clash between them.

It seems that one can find a way out, at least by temporarily reducing tension, however, it is perfectly clear that sooner or later a new escalation will begin there, since the interests of Damascus (and, accordingly, the Russian side) in this region diverge from Turkish plans and intentions in the most dramatic way. At the same time, Ankara draws a rather peculiar lesson from the Syrian events and makes a retaliatory move already in Libya, moreover, taking advantage of this, in fact, using our own methods. Having entered into an alliance with the Government of National Accord seated in Tripoli, Recep Erdogan openly intervenes in the ongoing civil war in the country, while opposing the Moscow-supported Libyan People’s Army led by Field Marshal Haftar.

The rhetoric that has been sounding all this time from Ankara is becoming increasingly anti-Russian - the local leader begins to speak with our country a language that can hardly be called anything other than ultimatum and threatening. At the same time, by the way, he “checks for strength” the readiness to confront the countries of the European Union and his own adversaries over NATO, starting the expansion of the appropriation of resources on the Mediterranean shelf. Quite expectedly, things are not going further than loud statements with “expressing concern” and general phrases about “Turkey’s inadmissibility”. Russia, however, at the official level is limited to about the same rhetoric. It is quite natural that every time Turkey does not “get its hands on” after its next aggressive demarche, it strengthens its own impunity and begins to become even more impudent. The transformation of the Hagia Sophia into a mosque is, of course, “Turkey’s internal political affair”, in which “no one, including us, should intervene,” as Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin said.

Nevertheless, the position voiced by the Russian Orthodox Church seems to be closer to the truth, where Erdogan’s trick was called not just “a threat to the whole Christian civilization”, but also specifically “a blow to world Orthodoxy”. And there is nothing to try to find solace in the fact that the most painful incident in Istanbul echoed in the hearts of representatives of Greece, relations with which the Turks today are exacerbated to the limit. The challenge was first and foremost not to this small European country, but to a state claiming a central and unifying role for all Orthodox believers. That is - Russia. Erdogan’s statements today that he almost “received approval of his actions personally from Putin” and the invitation of our leader to visit the temple in its new status border on insults directly ...

From Hagia Sophia to Karabakh

Against the background of all this, the position taken by Turkey regarding the next Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict (it is quite possible that Ankara was inspired too) seems to be a natural continuation of everything that happened earlier. The absolute and unconditional support of Baku was expressed by the overwhelming majority of high-ranking Turkish representatives - from the Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlut Cavusoglu, who stated bluntly that his country “in which case” would support the Azerbaijani side of the conflict “with everything at its disposal”, while emphasizing specifically that we are talking about support for the ally’s armed forces, up to the head of the defense department, Hulusi Akar, who also confirmed the thesis of readiness to “help”, which actually means the possibility of direct military intervention by Ankara. Russia, on the other hand, confined itself to an extremely slurred and crumpled statement by the Foreign Ministry, in which there was nothing concrete — sheer “expressions of concern” and on-call calls for an immediate ceasefire.

The reaction at the level of toothless official statements on this issue of the European Union. A radical change in the picture could have been announced at an urgent meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, in which Russia occupies a dominant position, but it was both announced and canceled. Or it was unclear for how long and for what reason ... What is typical, on July 13, after the outbreak in the Caucasus, a telephone conversation took place between Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan, which, according to the Kremlin’s press service reporting on it, went through calm and almost “warm and friendly” atmosphere. We talked about Syria, Libya, the same Sofia, the prospects of tourism and other important things. According to the official announcement, the initiator of the conversation was the Turkish leader.

One gets the impression that between Ankara and Moscow there is some kind of very strange game, which has recently been reduced, in fact, to a test of the patience of the latter. At the same time, it’s quite amusing to watch how some domestic media, for example, suddenly began to look for justification for the absolutely unexpected for many absolute lack of official reaction to the same crescent erection over Hagia Sophia. Some managed to finish to the point that it would almost “become a unifying moment for the Russians and Turks” in their “confrontation with the West”! God be their judge ... And you can philosophize as much as you like about the fact that the most severe blow was inflicted on the authority of the Patriarchate of Constantinople, which has recently taken the most active anti-Russian position, and not Moscow, but the fact remains.

Turkey, in front of the eyes of the whole world, has taken another significant step towards the reincarnation of the Ottoman Empire - albeit in a new guise, corresponding to modern realities. To say that Recep Erdogan’s ambitions are focused only on “retaining his own power” and the domestic political agenda, and all his foreign policy demarches are nothing more than a “pursuit of popularity”, can only be blind. Today, Ankara is trying to do what it has been preparing and striving for a long time ago - to seize the "control levers" of the Muslim world. At least, that part of it that professes the Sunni movement of Islam. It’s not without reason that Erdogan broadcasts that “the return of Hagia Sophia to the faithful should be followed by the release of al-Aqsa”, who, if anyone has forgotten, is in Jerusalem. It is not in vain that he also speaks of “the fire that should break out in the hearts of suppressed and exploited” co-religionists. Turkey has not only firmly embarked on the path of neo-Ottomanism and Pan-Turkism today, it is following it with great strides. This way cannot be peaceful in any case. And will not be.

How many wolves do not feed

We must not forget that the main geopolitical adversary of the Ottoman Empire, its, so to speak, natural enemy for centuries was Russia. There are too many “points of intersection” at which the spheres of vital interests of the two countries converge, which throughout the ages have been, yes by and large, and today remain mutually exclusive. Trying not only to coexist peacefully, but to cooperate with Turkey, our leaders seem to have forgotten about two things that have for centuries determined its foreign policy strategy - deceit and treachery. What did we ultimately get from this dubious “friendship”, for which Ankara was first forgiven for “innocent pranks” like supporting Ukrainian claims to the Crimea and supplying Kiev with weapons, and now, in fact, much more serious things get away with? Money for the S-400 (a significant part of which was obtained from our country as a loan), in return for the likelihood that these air defense systems will either be used against our own aircraft, or will be in the hands of the Americans (in Washington, this desire was already voiced )? The gas pipeline, due to which the “blue stream” has been idle since May 13 due to the almost complete refusal of the Turkish side of our fuel and which they can easily block there, turning it into another blackmail tool? Ankara's “gap” with the United States, which, most likely, is nothing more than another theater act, an element of the same “big bargain” in the style of an oriental bazaar? It may well be that the Turkish side is just trying to obtain the status of a “watching” in the Middle East from the USA and it’s far from the fact that it will not achieve it.

In any case, our country does not need a war, especially with such a serious adversary as Turkey. However, the problem lies precisely in the fact that sooner or later Moscow will either have to wind down many of its own foreign policy initiatives and projects, and not only in the Middle East, or enter into an open conflict with Ankara. But it will only be very bad if the place, time and conditions of this confrontation are not chosen by us. We must pay tribute to our opponents - they deliver blows that are very precise, accurate and increasingly painful. The situation with the same aggravation around Nagorno-Karabakh could turn out to be a very bad side for Russia. If Yerevan does not receive it from the CSTO, it will give an occasion to all the anti-Russian forces there (and there are quite a lot of them) to declare the organization's complete powerlessness and uselessness, and, above all, the futility of the future course for priority cooperation with Moscow. There, you see, the time will come for a “multi-vector politics”, which Pashinyan is already talking about, which may well be followed by a full turn to the West. And this is just one example of this kind.

It is quite possible that, as I have already said, everything that happens is just a protracted prelude of a certain "multi-way", the ending of which should be so unexpected that people unprepared to comprehend it wisely. However, if everything is much simpler, and trying to "tame" a seasoned Turkish "wolf", our politicians simply forgot the saying about the uselessness of feeding this beast, while only fairly fueling Ankara’s ambitions, it won’t end in good. With friendly and hospitable Turkey, we could live in peace for years. With the revived Ottoman Empire - we will not be able in any case.
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  1. Kyctyk ardax Offline Kyctyk ardax
    Kyctyk ardax (Kyctyk ardax) 16 July 2020 11: 08
    Mnogohodovochka Kremlin. Judo style. Soon Turkey will be thrown on the shoulder blades.
    1. Siberian southerner (Sergey A) 16 July 2020 14: 00
      She will lie down.
    2. Alex widerker Offline Alex widerker
      Alex widerker (Alex Widerkehr) 16 July 2020 19: 05
      Remember how two soldiers died due to the fault of the Turks? A couple of months and forgot. And again friendship and rest in Turkey. Some strange game of the Kremlin.
      1. Syoma_67 Offline Syoma_67
        Syoma_67 (Semyon) 16 July 2020 20: 17
        and on vacation to Turkey

        - Holidays in Turkey did not stop, they just flew through Minsk, and in order to know how the Turks were suffering, they showed an unfinished, unoccupied hotel on all channels.
    3. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 16 July 2020 19: 26
      The article is clearly pro-Armenian, which is why the views are one-sided. What is happening, as a result, and the answer to Pashinyan and his multi-vector, even if he is looking for support in this multi-vector, will have to get up to speed and not the fact that will help. Russia is not able to change relations with the regional player Turkey because of today's weather government of Armenia ... After the devastating actions of the USA with the collapse of Iraq and the infringement of Iran, Turkey remained the clear only leader of the region and Sunni Muslims. It is preferable for Russia to see Turkey as the leader of the Sunnis, rather than Wahhabi Saudi Arabia ... Let us recall the story, the USSR had friendly relations with Turkey in 20-30, but then Germany again pulled Turkey to its side and unleashed hostility with the USSR. It is time to return these friendships begun by K. Ataturk, the path is long but necessary, but there will be many obstacles and bumps, both Turkey and Russia, but gradually they began to overcome them ...
    4. Bitter Offline Bitter
      Bitter 16 July 2020 21: 13
      The Kremlin's multi-move.

      The main thing is not to forget on the fifth move, where the first did.

      Judo style.

      Rather, an elusive style, wherever the curve leads, everything is according to plan.

      Turkey will soon be thrown on its shoulder.

      As soon as Akkuyu is launched, the Turks will immediately throw themselves on the shoulder blades.
  2. The comment was deleted.
  3. Kyctyk ardax Offline Kyctyk ardax
    Kyctyk ardax (Kyctyk ardax) 16 July 2020 11: 44
    Turks are getting impudent.
    6 years ago, no one had heard of Turkey.
    1. Siberian southerner (Sergey A) 16 July 2020 13: 59
      So they decided to declare about themselves, the Sultan is bored.
  4. Siberian southerner (Sergey A) 16 July 2020 11: 54
    That's right, it makes sense to go into hell. History taught. You can just wait, when the partners exhaust each other, just come and take it or wait for another, then they will bring it themselves. This is a tactical retreat to previously strengthened positions.
  5. jekasimf Offline jekasimf
    jekasimf (jekasimf) 16 July 2020 12: 07
    Vague doubts torment me that under the pseudonym Alexander Neukropny, an ethnic Armenian is hiding. When you go to specialized forums, so many Armenians shout that Russia SHOULD defeat Azerbaijan and Turkey and surrender the territory of Armenia. Sami, saaaami ....
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 16 July 2020 12: 53
      Russia SHOULD defeat Azerbaijan and Turkey and surrender the territory of Armenia. Sami, Saaaami ....

      And to conquer Constantinople and give to the Greeks? There are plenty of such people. laughing Well, they somehow understand why such a development of events is like. It’s not entirely clear why we have so many people who want to fight the Turks? Ask why, nothing but - you need to put in place - you will not hear.
  6. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 16 July 2020 12: 24
    Ah ... In life, ordinary Armenians and Azerbaijanis are killing each other, and the media are all looking for a country - the enemy.
    And all by.
    The other day, Putin and Erdogan again announced - peace, friendship, gas, patrols ...
  7. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 16 July 2020 13: 03
    A new generation of generals with browning brains has grown. Right now they want, and so will be.
    Azerbaijanis are useless soldiers and completely stupid generals. This was shown back in the early 90s. They shoot, shoot from everything, but they won’t go on the attack. Life is dear to the soldiers that stand up for the Nakhchivan and Karabakh, and the generals shoulder straps are nicer than fame.
  8. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 16 July 2020 13: 50
    If Yerevan, which has requested support from the CSTO, does not receive it, this will give an excuse to all the anti-Russian forces available there (and there are quite a few of them) ..

    If there, in Yerevan, there are many of them, then why help them? I remember that the Armenians in the USSR blew up the metro in Moscow. And if they are so CSTO-shny, then let them close and liquidate the American military biological laboratory in Armenia.
    And about Hagia Sophia, the whole world saw that the Patriarchate of Constantinople (Istanbul) is nothing of itself in the Orthodox world and the main leader of World Orthodoxy is Moscow. Fight for the Greeks? - So let NATO fight for them - are they members of NATO? Russia gave them freedom from the Turks, and they are constantly joining the coalition against Russia.
  9. Sultan Tayyip Erdogan 1 16 July 2020 21: 33
    I understand everything, but there is at least a little bit of the notion of objectivity: why do you think that you can claim something, but Turkey or some other country is not allowed ??? We have a 912 km border with Syria, from there comes a threat to us, in the form of PKK radicals. We have been feeding more than 9 million Syrians for 3 years now and we are grateful for this, not the PKK (or YPG), which at any moment can arrange a provocation on the border. You accept the Kurds who want their country, and you also have many peoples who would like a separate republic, do you agree with these conditions? They were invited to Libya, as you are to Syria, the official government, you do not officially support Haftar, constantly repeating "ihtamnet". The situation with Azerbaijan is the same as you have with Serbia. Will you watch if someone attacks Serbia? If Kosovo was taken away from Serbia and at least partially recognized, Nagorno-Karabakh is not recognized at all, including by Russia! And with tourists for me, in general, a terrible story. Maybe instead of closing borders or banning travel, you need to make your resorts better than Turkish ones? Who's in the way ??! You will be richer than Turkey. And finally, since the author of this article knows so much and worries about you, why then is it not he who runs the country, but Putin? ...
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 18 July 2020 21: 36
      Each side has its own truth, and when there is hostility, these truths will only be distorted ... You are right, but Turkey's problems do not bother many, because for a long time there were no good relations with Russia. Let me remind you of the story when, in the 20s, K. Ataturk created a new Turkey, the first main ally was Soviet Russia, which helped in everything they could ... patience and work for peaceful neighborly relations ... The dangers in today's turbulent world have multiplied, therefore, very deliberate actions are needed to avoid us becoming enemies again, to the delight of the enemies of Turkey and Russia ...
  10. bear040 Offline bear040
    bear040 16 July 2020 21: 40
    So far, I do not see a direct threat to the Russian Federation from Turkey, but I see a completely different one. Turkey, striding widely, tore her pants and stands, sparkling with shame. In Libya, Turkey is opposed by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, France. Greece has already spoken out against Turkey. In Karabakh, Armenia has already destroyed the Azerbaijani General and Colonel, from which we can conclude that the Armenians, at least, destroyed the headquarters of the Azerbaijan Division, or the brigades and affairs of the allied Turkey of Azerbaijan are not important. If Turkey continues to follow the same path as today, it will be the end of Turkey.
  11. vladimir mudov Offline vladimir mudov
    vladimir mudov (vladimir mudov) 17 July 2020 09: 31
    Yes! Unfortunately it's true! Putin is certainly cowardly, certainly weak! Of course, with such "qualities" he cannot be the "leader" of Russia! But, what happened happened! This weak man, by the "will of fate" and the drunkard Yeltsin, nevertheless became first the President and now the "Tsar" of Russia! Of course, you cannot even put Putin close, for example, with Kadyrov! That really is a leader who really enjoys the trust, at least at least, of the people of Chechnya! This one, with the resources of Russia, would make Russia a superpower! Putin will not make Russia "great"! It will be good if Russia at all remains on the world map, not "torn to pieces, a" middle "country in the world! Unfortunately, so. I repeat," unfortunately "! Putin is not of that level!
    1. Michael1950 Offline Michael1950
      Michael1950 (Michael) 21 July 2020 16: 01
      Kadyrov - for the presidency of Russia ?! Interesting idea! Only you, Mudov, will have to accept Islam before that! wink laughing You are ready?!
  12. Anatoly Gritsenko (Anatoly Gritsenko) 17 July 2020 09: 42
    Everything stated here is pure truth, which could have been foreseen even by ordinary people with all the meagerness of our mind, and not only by the "GREAT" strategists from the Kremlin, everyone warned about the failure of "friendship" with the Turks and now ...... is coming true! Further it gets worse.
  13. mikhail.rybakov2017 (mikhail rybakov) 18 July 2020 10: 53
    We only know what we need to know and nothing more.
  14. Dormidontych Offline Dormidontych
    Dormidontych (Dormidontych Dormidontov) 19 July 2020 22: 46
    We retreat because the country is weak, the economy is almost exclusively based on raw materials and completely dependent on the West. Prices creep up - and putinoids' cheeks puff up with importance, and threats and boast rush into the distance ... But prices collapsed - and that's it, the Turks do what they want, and the Kremlin just swallows sadly ... Under Stalin, this was not the case.
  15. Yuri Strukov Offline Yuri Strukov
    Yuri Strukov (Yuri Strukov) 21 July 2020 16: 17
    To apply judo, you have to be a fighter! And at the level of the Kremlin, there are mumbles and a defenseless back.