Why the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia is almost inevitable


Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to escalate. There are casualties among the military, both sides blame each other for provocations and further escalation. Despite official Baku’s statements regarding “occupied 20% of the territory,” the issue no longer concerns Nagorno-Karabakh. Apparently, everyone just wants a war, and therefore it is almost inevitable.


A few days ago we told about another aggravation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. However, unlike previous clashes, they now occur hundreds of kilometers from the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. There is a strong impression that complaints about the “annexation of Azerbaijani territory” are just an excuse. So who and why did it take for the guns to speak again and blood to spill?

Small and victorious - such a war is periodically necessary for the rulers of states experiencing serious socialeconomic difficulties in unifying society against an external enemy. As for Azerbaijan, this country has suffered from the consequences of the "oil war" between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Its budget is 60% dependent on oil sales, and hydrocarbons as a whole account for about 90% of total exports. At high costs, the budget was made up at a barrel price of $ 55. Due to the fall in world quotes of "black gold" began the devaluation of the national currency, and with it the rise in prices. In general, we are faced with all the “charms” of a commodity economy.

It is possible that someone could advise official Baku to resolve domestic economic and political problems due to the escalation of the conflict with the familiar enemy, Armenia. At the same time, “warm greetings” to the Kremlin could be written “between the lines” for its intractability in the OPEC + deal in March. In Yerevan, too, there are forces that are not averse to fighting slightly with the Azerbaijanis. Prime Minister Pashinyan continues a political conflict with the opposition, which has already formed in relation to him.

Most likely, everything could be limited to a shootout in Nagorno-Karabakh, but this time an external player, Turkey, got into the conflict. The Ministry of Defense of this country stated:

We will continue to provide all possible assistance and support to the Azerbaijani Armed Forces against Armenia, which for many years pursues a policy of aggression, illegally occupying Azerbaijani lands.


The Turkish ambassador to Baku, Erkan Ozoral, in turn, also said:

Connected by a common culture and history, Azerbaijan and Turkey are one nation, two states.

This sharply raised the stakes in the game. Now this is no longer a local conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, where Russia has traditionally been a mediator. This is a question of a war between two sovereign states, with Turkey on the side of Azerbaijan, which has the second strongest army and navy in NATO. Armenia is a member of the CSTO, and an attack on one of its members is automatically considered an attack on the entire bloc.

Baku and Ankara put the Kremlin in an extremely awkward position. In the event of further escalation and the beginning of active hostilities against the CSTO ally, Russia will have to defend it, thereby destroying its partnership with Azerbaijan and Turkey. If Moscow is inactive, then the value of the CSTO for the rest of its participants will begin to vanish. Such a “Turkish gambit” was arranged by the “friend” Recep in response to Syria and Libya.
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  1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 17 July 2020 09: 08
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    War is almost inevitable, but almost will not take place - both sides can’t afford to fight.
  2. Bulanov Offline
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 17 July 2020 09: 30
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    All this fuss can end with the accession of Istanbul to Russia ...
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 17 July 2020 17: 01
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      Whose population in Istanbul is Turks, so it will remain Turkish while the majority are Turks ... And so on in all territories, including Nagorno-Karabakh. True, the Armenians will have to return the surplus they seized to Azerbaijan, but the main territory of Karabakh will remain with Armenia (the precedent of Kosovo) ... Russia needs to withdraw the garrison from Gyumri, leaving the guard company, so bring the Armenians into a normal state of consciousness and wean them from treacherous tricks. Let them defend themselves, since they want to go to Europe and spit on Russia ... And according to the CSTO, adopt a resolution: in case of aggressive actions of the CSTO members, the protection of those is not carried out. Karabakh is busy with the aggression of Armenia against Azerbaijan ...
      1. SAFARLI Offline
        SAFARLI (Cingiz Safarli) 30 July 2020 17: 45
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        Azerbaijan will not concede a single meter to Armenia, even if it even has to fight with Russia because of this. Consider this.
        1. Digital error Offline
          Digital error (Eugene) 30 July 2020 18: 18
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          Quote: SAFARLI
          Consider this

          I am afraid that the prospect of a war with Russia (if it comes to her) will end with numerous victims of Azerbaijanis without any territorial gains. This also needs to be taken into account, regardless of the origins of the conflict - there are large "regional players" whose interests, like it or not, will have to be reckoned with.
  3. Xuli (o) Tebenado 17 July 2020 09: 39
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    In the territory of the former USSR, practically all conflicts that have arisen over the past 35 years are unsolvable under existing conditions. And in my opinion, the main reason for their unsolvability is the events after the collapse of the Russian Empire in early 1917.
    1. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 18 July 2020 07: 06
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      Here you are at the very point. We still have not comprehended the tragedy of the collapse of the USSR.
      1. Xuli (o) Tebenado 18 July 2020 14: 18
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        And can you explain when this same USSR was formed in the 20-30s of the last century, on the basis of what considerations were given to some peoples by the creation of a union republic, to others - an autonomous republic? Third and others - autonomous regions?

        Further. The Union republics were endowed with equal rights, including the right to withdraw from the Union, while the autonomous republics did not have such rights, that is, initially the Union republics were, like, equal to equal, and others, like, the second or third grade.

        The largest (state-forming) republic of the RSFSR was created on the basis of nested dolls. And she was, like, equal with other sister republics.

        In the end, this whole complex and incomprehensible structure fell apart with a rather strong roar, the peals of which are still heard, they have been heard and echoed for more than 30 years.
  4. The comment was deleted.
  5. Bakht Offline
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 17 July 2020 10: 14
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    This is your text:

    such a war is periodically necessary for the rulers of states ..... in order to unite society against an external enemy.

    And this is reality:

    On the night of July 15, mass rallies were held in a number of districts of Baku with calls for a military conflict with Armenia.

    Somehow does not fit.
    The opposition requires a mobilization, and start a war. Authorities plant oppositionists and try to end the war.

    https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/5f0e5a0c9a79472de6575e96

    Police in Baku dispersed participants in a mass rally of supporters of the military conflict with Armenia. On the night of Wednesday, July 15, law enforcement officers used water cannons and tear gas, tens of people were detained.

    https://www.dw.com/ru/полиция-в-баку-разогнала-митинг-в-поддержку-армии/a-54181370

    To the author - check your sources ...
    1. Sergey-54 Offline
      Sergey-54 (Sergei) 17 July 2020 11: 46
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      And when they brought out tables with the inscription - "A set of volunteers !!!" - the whole crowd disappeared somewhere. Remained, whom they trampled to death.
      1. Bakht Offline
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 17 July 2020 12: 00
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        Not certainly in that way. There are thousands of applications in the military enlistment offices. But so far there is only a planned recruitment into the army. Another call. There is no mobilization.

        The sons of the Azerbaijani minister enlisted in the army.

        https://ru.oxu.az/society/406383
        1. Bakht Offline
          Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 17 July 2020 12: 14
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          To date, the military enlistment offices 4 thousand applications. But there is no need for volunteers.

          https://zerkalo.az/arzu-ragimov-na-segodnya-v-dobrovoltsah-neobhodimosti-net/
      2. Lucius tarquinius (Lucius Tarquinius) 18 July 2020 14: 56
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        Don't say nonsense, only during the next day 4 thousand volunteers signed up in the country (many on-line, on the website of military registration and enlistment offices, statistics are not included), for tomorrow already 7.5 thousand people signed up. There are famous people in the country whose children signed up as volunteers, everyone knows them and saw how this happened.
  6. Sapsan136 Offline
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 17 July 2020 15: 28
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    So let's see. And by the way, why only Moscow ?! All CSTO members must provide military assistance to a country that was attacked from outside. Let's see if Kazakhstan and the Republic of Belarus send their soldiers to Armenia, if not, then the CSTO does not need the Russian Federation, since it will be clear that the attitude to the Russian Federation in the CSTO is purely consumer and if it happens, Russian assistance will not wait ...
    1. SAFARLI Offline
      SAFARLI (Cingiz Safarli) 30 July 2020 17: 54
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      There are more than 300 Russian schools operating in Azerbaijan, despite the fact that every Azerbaijani perfectly understands that Russia was and is behind the occupation of Azerbaijani lands by Armenia. Russia is the guarantor of Armenia's security and the guarantor of the status quo, which is beneficial only to Armenia. But we also know and have always known that the Armenians will betray Russia sooner or later, this is their nature, they have betrayed all countries wherever they live. And one shouldn't really believe about the tales of the "Armenian genocide", there is not a single document that would confirm this. This is all a political game and a way of putting pressure on Turkey. Let me remind you that the court in Malta immediately after the First World War acquitted all the Turks accused of genocide, and this is about 150 people, they were in prison awaiting trial for 1,5 years, even though the prosecutor was an Armenian, to prove their involvement none of them succeeded, that is, the court did not confirm the fact of genocide.
      1. Sapsan136 Offline
        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 30 July 2020 19: 39
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        Azerbaijan fought against the Russian Federation in Chechnya. In particular, in the 90s, at the Grozny Mi-24 airfield of the Russian Air Force, they destroyed the An-12 four-engine military transport aircraft of the Azerbaijan Air Force, which was definitely not bringing pomegranate juice to Dudayev's militants. My classmate lived in Baku during the Soviet era. You started slaughtering Armenians and ended up with Russians. His family became refugees and fled to Russia. Not everyone was lucky, you killed many. And your schools need to go to Russia for a piece of bread. Something your diaspora will not get home in any way and your gaster all the time in the Russian Federation fumble.
  7. Mike fly Offline
    Mike fly (Mike Fly) 17 July 2020 16: 47
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    You would have exposed Stalin and criticized for the desire to free the USSR from German aggression.
  8. ustal51 Offline
    ustal51 (Alexander) 18 July 2020 04: 31
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    We need to give our former brethren a sip of shit in which they are getting deeper and deeper. Only this will help brainwashing.
  9. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 18 July 2020 07: 15
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    We have been passively looking at Turkish politics and our attitude to this policy for a long time. Azerbaijan has long been influenced by Turkey, but we need to look at Adjara. With its billions of dollars in investments in this republic, Turkey has a huge impact on this region. And how much did we invest in Abkhazia? Our jewelry stores are littered with gold trinkets from Turkey. And they are made of our gold. Sold the S-400 to this country. Unleash, they will sell it to America.
    1. Lucius tarquinius (Lucius Tarquinius) 18 July 2020 15: 07
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      The propaganda of the Armenophiles clouded people's heads. It was Turkey who occupied the lands of Azerbaijan 11 sq. km (!)? Does Turkey have more than 500 million Azerbaijani refugees from Karabakh and 1 districts of Azerbaijan populated by purely Azerbaijanis? It is not Turkey, but Azerbaijan, which has been negotiating with the Armenians for 7 years, so that in the end the Armenians will declare all the lands seized from Azerbaijan "theirs" by law (!). The Armenians began to settle the occupied lands long ago, they have already overpowered 30 thousand people from other countries (from Syria in particular). They build roads and objects, equip themselves. Moreover, mockingly, defiantly on their own and foreign TV channels and on websites they are spreading all this, teasing Azerbaijanis, they say, you don't have enough spirit. Can you? Then come and take your lands. They do because they know that there is a greater force behind them. So, 23 years! Is Turkey doing all this? How much can Azerbaijan tolerate this? Where to go more than 30 million refugees? The Armenians cut down all the forests in the occupied territories, plundered Azerbaijani cities and villages, destroyed industry, barbarously depleted all mines, including and gold, copper and bauxite. There are so many fertile lands in the occupied territories, most of Azerbaijan's water resources are located there. Azerbaijan is now without water because of this. That is why people are indignant and demand their land. To know and fight against this, Azerbaijan needs someone like Turkey?
      1. Xuli (o) Tebenado 18 July 2020 17: 38
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        Where to go more than 1 million refugees?

        Armenia may also ask about 1 (2, 3 and 5) million of its refugees. But not the point.
        In 2010, I lived in one glorious Russian city called Kaluga. And my friend Alexei was there, who took me to local attractions, since he had a car.
        Once we arrived in a remote area, A. slowed down and said: "Here refugees live with us." I didn’t understand - all around there were powerful walls 3 meters high, behind which the tops of houses on 3 floors, separate entrances for cars, armor-piercing blinds were barely visible.
        I was in full ....: "Lesh, what kind of refugees live like that?". Lyosha replied: “The Armenian-Azerbaijani refugees LIVE IN SUCH IN US. They fought there, like, they fought, and then they ran here and built houses on 3 floors with three-meter fences. But they don’t fight, they live quietly.”
        So this is the question of the Turkish-Armenian "refugees" in Russia.
        1. So take the rich and strong without fail! Let them go!
        2. Lucius tarquinius (Lucius Tarquinius) 25 July 2020 18: 23
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          What nonsense? Where do Armenians get 1 million refugees from?
        3. SAFARLI Offline
          SAFARLI (Cingiz Safarli) 30 July 2020 17: 43
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          Lyosha answered:

          Armenian-Azerbaijani Refugees LIVE IN KALUGA WITH US

          Your Lesha is lying, NONE of the Azerbaijani refugees left for Russia. All refugees from the conflict region are only Armenians. If there is information about at least one Azerbaijani refugee, then please give information about where it is and who he is.
      2. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 20 July 2020 08: 41
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        Many countries have territorial claims. But this does not mean that they must be resolved by military means. Gorbachev allowed this discord in 1987. Previously, Moscow did not allow this.
  10. Vasily Trofimchenko (Vasily Trofimchenko) 18 July 2020 09: 20
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    ... - Then, how to convince people not to kill each other and not to waste their strength, labor and talents on senseless wars.
    - Do not make weapons and do not boast about successes in the military field. Do not bear plans to seize other lands. Do not drive people out of their homes and do not make them your slaves. The reckoning for this will be terrible for anyone who not only made weapons of death or was proud of the “victories” in the arms race organized by demons, but also silently contemplated all this. All resources that are in the temple, make available to everyone. None of the children of God has the right to individually own the earth, sky, sea, lake, river, and that which contains a temple. Be healed by the law of God. It is not necessary to agree on something with each other, but simply live in peace with your conscience, which is the Fear of God. He who wants war and prepares for it, transgresses the Law of God and will be again stolen by the devil to soak the Soul of this criminal with hellish fire. Pour boiling water, in comparison with which it seems - to plunge into the cold water. Killed, deceived and stolen - mortal sins, and in their severity are unparalleled.

    From the story: “Thorny is our way back to God.”
  11. And what? Behind Aliyev - the entire military-industrial complex of Turkey, and the Armenians fell into hard Russophobia, and can not count on Russia.
  12. DeGreen Offline
    DeGreen 20 July 2020 07: 47
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    So let them kill each other. And let their fellow countrymen be taken from Russia.