Starting today, Belarus is completing the registration of presidential candidates who intend to compete for this post during the elections scheduled for August 9, and the period of officially permitted campaigning begins. However, this date cannot be called the start of the race for the electoral sympathies of Belarusians - in fact, it has already been completed. Moreover, in strict accordance with the formula: “there are no others, but those are farther away” ...
Residents of the country have been clearly and unequivocally given to understand that “Alexander Lukashenko, who has been holding this very position for 26 years now, remains the only and only” applicant for the highest position in it. Does this mean that he will win the current election, contrary to the unprecedented protest movement in Belarus? Rather yes than no. Will it go on like this? More likely no than yes.
The tops cannot, the lower classes are sick of it
No matter how disparaging some of the current “clever people” are about such a thing as the “classic of Marxism-Leninism,” this legacy is truly a storehouse of wisdom - at least with regard to some very specific issues. Well, who else but Vladimir Ilyich knew a lot about in such a difficult matter as the overthrow of the existing government? His formulation of the revolutionary situation is impeccable: it is short, straightforward and sharp, like a deadly stiletto. We all know: “The tops cannot control in the old way, but the lower classes do not want to live in the old way ...” is brilliant in its comprehensive simplicity and obviousness and corresponds to the truth exactly 100%. As, by the way, is the third component of this formula, mentioned much less frequently: “a significant increase in the activity of the masses”, to which they are prompted both by the crisis in cash in the state and by the representatives of the “upper classes” themselves. Does it look like what's happening in Belarus now? Yes, in my opinion, it is simply impossible to give a clearer and more detailed definition of the situation there!
This is confirmed by the conversation that I had just the other day with one of my close friends who live just in this country. Even if in a few other, less correct than Leninist terms, this Belarusian outlined the same picture: “He got everyone!” We must pay tribute to Alexander Grigorievich - in order to push away most of his own, almost perfectly trained in almost three decades of the electorate, he made every effort. And very successful. Nationalists - “zmagars" and other various "professional oppositionists" who dream of turning Belarus into either a branch of Poland, or into some kind of foolish Baltic revered by them "paradise", stuck in the EU either as a carcass, or as a scarecrow, vehemently hated the "old man" " is always. It can be said at the genetic level. But what about everyone else? The rest are precisely those who, over and over again, voted for him not at all from a stick, but because of sincere conviction in their choice. First of all, they saw in Lukashenko a real guarantor - stability, peace, satiety (albeit not the same as we would like), order on the streets, complete, practically, absence of crime.
In the end - no matter how trivial it may sound, the “dad” was a symbol of confidence in the future. In the opinion of many, for the sake of the cleanliness and safety of Belarusian cities and villages, the quality of local roads and working enterprises, some lack of freedom could be tolerated. In the end - “he hits, then he loves” ... The deepest country that has swept the country today economic the crisis forced all these people, let’s say, to somewhat reconsider their own point of view. And here it is impossible not to mention that Lukashenko himself played an enormous and despicable joke - he would declare quarantine during the coronavirus pandemic (which, incidentally, was demanded not only by the WHO emissaries, but also by many Belarusians), now he could at least write him off part of the trouble overtaking the country. But no - stubbornness and self-confidence won, the next stage of which is an attempt to carve the sea. Now it is clear to everyone and everyone that the main reason for what is happening is not a pandemic, but Alexander Grigoryevich, who had quarreled with Russia. And this tightly “cut off” from him yet another, rather rather big category of Belarusians: those who wholeheartedly advocated for the deepest possible integration with our country into the Union State. In order to grasp the essence of this particular issue, you need to know the real, not “television” Belarusians. Yes, they really want change - living in a country where everything is “frozen”, like in a piece of amber, with all the outward beauty of this picture, is hard. But the absolute majority of them longs to change their lives not after the model of the European Union, knowing full well that at least the deprivation of all considerable social benefits will be the price of such a turn. And certainly not in the manner of a frenzied Ukraine, where "freedom" is expressed mainly in the form of complete lawlessness of both the authorities and various gangs - from nationalist to purely criminal. They want an increase in freedom (primarily economic) just to the level of Russia! Believe me, this is so. That is precisely this category of citizens, who until now has seen the creator of the Union State in Lukashenko, is now disappointed in him in the most cruel way.
The collapse of "backbone socialism"
Absolutely unexpected, first of all, for the official Minsk, the scope of the protest campaign and the level of support for alternative candidates to Lukashenko (no matter bankers or bloggers) suggests that the fantastically patient local people really don’t want to “like before” anymore! And there’s why ... A few figures to understand the depth of the problems there: as of May 1 of this year, the debts of the main Belarusian enterprises were calculated in the amount that came close to 145 billion rubles there, having increased by almost 9% since the beginning of the year. For comparison, the GDP of the whole of Belarus in 2019 amounted to 132 billion Belarusian rubles. In the current, 2020, it was planned to bring it to the mark of 143 and a half billion. By the way, this is hardly real - the country is predicting a decline in GDP from 4% (World Bank) to 6% (IMF). One way or another, but the debt burden of the Belarusian economy (I repeat, this is not about all, but only about the main subjects of the national economy) two months ago exceeded the planned volume of the country's gross domestic product. Since the beginning of the year, the state debt of Minsk has grown by 11.4%.
No wonder - over the same period, the decrease in foreign exchange earnings of Belarus amounted to nearly 3.5 billion dollars. The reason does not need special explanations - more than 40% of Belarusian exports were from petroleum products resulting from the processing of Russian raw materials. Lukashenko lost the real “oil war” unleashed by him in the fight to abolish the “tax maneuver”, and with a bang and shame. At the end of June, the Belneftekhim concern announced their intention to purchase about 1.6 million tons of “black gold” from Russian companies. At the same time, the truth did not fail to add that "other needs will be met through tanker supplies."
Do you want to know the volume of these very "other"? In April, the situation was approximately the same - out of 2 million tons of oil “recovered” by Belarusian refineries, 1.56 million were of Russian origin. Given that Belarusians produce a certain amount of oil on their own, it becomes obvious that the “alternative” supplies are miserable, bluff, nonsense. Either 80 thousand tons will be bought from Norway, or the same amount from Saudi Arabia ... This is despite the fact that according to preliminary agreements, the country was supposed to receive 2020 million tons of our “black gold” in 24! It is quite obvious that continuing the senseless and “merciless” (as it seems to him) struggle with Russia, Alexander Grigoryevich personally nails the last nails into the coffin of the very socio-economic formation that provided him with such a long and cloudless reign. It would be most correct to call it “rebellious socialism”, where Moscow played the role of the eternal “sponsor”. Nevertheless, the “father” stubbornly continues to bend his own - judging by the more than meager reports of the official press services about his last meeting with Vladimir Putin on June 30 during the opening of the grand memorial in Rzhev, there is no “breakthrough” in the relations between the two leaders and not expected. An indirect confirmation of this is the “revelations”, which three days later, at a briefing on the occasion of Independence Day of Belarus, suddenly pulled the ambassador of this country in Moscow, Vladimir Semashko. The diplomat told the audience that, it turns out, at a meeting at the beginning of last year in Sochi dedicated to the creation of the Union State, the Russian side proposed a certain “plan”, according to which Minsk villainously wanted to “take 95% of powers to the supranational level”. In fact, to deprive either innocence, or sovereignty, or both. As we see, the anti-Russian demarches of the Belarusian side continue, and at the highest levels.
So what is the end of Lukashenko’s autocracy? Almost definitely - no. Having driven “behind the bailiffs” of the main competitors of his own, the “dad” quite convincingly showed that “Akella” had never lost its fangs or claws over and over again in its decisions. He is still ready for a fight for power. A saving time for Alexander Grigorievich is also the fact that the West, which is now deeply mired in its own problems, is unlikely to be able (and will want) to quickly and efficiently organize a sufficiently capable Maidan in the country. The speculations of Lukashenko himself about the “Russian footprint”, which Babariko frightened him to the point of hiccuping it, will be left to specialists who are professionally working with manic-anxious states, paranoia, and the like. What the hell is “pro-Russian” if he is known for sponsoring the publication of the opuses of the most important Belarusian Russophobia Svetlana Aleksievich and more than generous injections into various, certainly not Moscow-controlled NGOs ?! Worked at Belgazprombank, you say? Well, you never know where anyone worked ... And he does not pull in his "weight category" this, as Lukashenko himself called it, "pot-bellied bourgeois" for a candidate from Moscow. So the “old man” will quite safely win the current elections - not so much thanks to his own administrative resource as due to the incredible conservatism of the Belarusians, many of whom, having hung up and thoughtfully, will vote on the principle: “no matter how it gets worse”. But here are the following ...
Stubbornly continuing to walk sweepingly along the path of Viktor Yanukovych, now sitting in Rostov, Lukashenko continues to dig a hole for himself and his country. On this day of US Independence, he stated the need for "building strong and constructive relations with the United States based on shared values and priorities," calling this personally suicidal undertaking "one of the main goals" of the external policy Minsk ". Calling on Washington to “increase the level of diplomatic representation,” Alexander Grigoryevich with his own hands opens the gates to let in not just one “Trojan horse”, but a whole herd of them. There is no doubt that the “color revolution” in Belarus, under the current course of Lukashenko, is guaranteed over the next few years. If he continues the conflict with Russia, the standard of living of his fellow citizens will fall more rapidly, and the Western “arsonists” will have time to prepare and be fully equipped - with gas canisters and burning torches. After all, Yanukovych was not overthrown after the election either. I was out of reach, poor fellow ... What remains in this situation for Moscow? Well, certainly it’s not indifferent to look at what is happening, at the risk of getting yet another “non-brothers” and a new pile of problems on one’s head.