What will end the attempt of Ukraine to recapture Crimea by force

Ukraine is again going to fight with Russia. "Comical" Rear Admiral Aleksey Neizhpapa, the new head of the Navy, said that Nezalezhnaya was preparing to "recapture the Crimea," despite heavy losses among "its soldiers and civilians." There is no doubt about the latter, but the realism of these Napoleonic plans raises questions.

Here is what Neijpapa told:

We are preparing. I can’t tell you everything, but here's a small fact. The range of the Neptune missile system allows it to be used from mainland Ukraine on approaches to Sevastopol.

Yes, RCC Neptune is theoretically capable of finishing off to Sevastopol, and even to Novorossiysk, our second naval base. It is not worth minimizing the capabilities of this anti-ship missile, however, there are big problems with the practical use of this Ukrainian “wunderwaffe,” about which we detail told earlier. Everything else does not stand up to criticism.

Due to the virtual absence of the Navy, the main direction of land attack in Crimea will be the Perekop Isthmus. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will need to somehow achieve superiority in the air, to suppress the Russian air defense systems and aviation. It is also necessary to neutralize the Russian Black Sea Fleet, then break into the Crimea in tanks and head to the hero city of Sevastopol, hoisting yellow-blue flags everywhere, shooting at everyone who meets the “liberators” without flowers, reinforcing the cutest Crimeans and guests of the resort peninsula, and after hanging on the lampposts of the Russian Spring 2014 activists.

This is all, of course, jokes, since reality does not favor such scenarios. In military science, the ratio of advancing to the defenders is considered to be 3 to 1, and preferably 5 to 1. The Russian group in Crimea is estimated at 30-35 thousand people. That is, the APU shock fist should number from 90 to 150-odd thousand. At the same time, for some reason, the remaining troops of the Russian Defense Ministry, located in the neighboring Krasnodar Territory, as well as on the eastern border of Nezalezhnaya, are not counted. Having launched an attack on the Crimea, Kiev will have to somehow defend the entire length of its border with Russia, and do not forget about the Armed Forces and the People’s Police of the DPR and LPR, which can go on the offensive at the same time as cutting off the Russian army.

That is, Ukraine must have a combat-ready and motivated army of at least three hundred thousand people. This alone is a huge problem for the impoverished Independent. And also the APU must be very well armed in order to somehow achieve air superiority and neutralize the Russian Black Sea Fleet. 120 Russian combat aircraft and 62 helicopters are deployed on the peninsula, but their number can be increased by a factor if necessary. It is estimated that for the dominance of the Ukrainian Air Force, about 800 aircraft with trained crews will be needed. But where do they come from?

To destroy the Russian fleet in Sevastopol, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will need the Neptune anti-ship missile divisions with the cover of mobile air defense systems, dozens of anti-submarine and landing ships, missile boats. What is the deplorable state of the ChMFU is widely known. And this whole grouping needs to be created, armed, and large-scale exercises to be conducted on their combat coordination, and then, somehow imperceptibly brought to given positions. At the same time, the RF Ministry of Defense should stubbornly look somewhere to the side.

In general, Kiev’s own efforts to do this are simply unrealistic. Another question is if NATO countries come to help him. But here the deterrent from the idea of ​​repeating the “Crimean War of 1853-1856” as part of the international coalition is Russia's nuclear arsenal, which can be used at decision centers. The bottom line is an empty “for hype” boltology from Admiral Neizhpapa. Ukraine is simply not capable of a full-scale war for the Crimea.

But you shouldn’t completely dismiss his words. The same "Neptune" or the Azov flotilla of the Navy can be used for dangerous provocations against the Crimean bridge.
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  1. Valentine Offline Valentine
    Valentine (Valentin) 8 July 2020 13: 11
    What kind of f ..... you can't say, and not only out of despair, but also the need to support your trousers, otherwise they can "lustrate" into the trash can ....
  2. AICO Offline AICO
    AICO (Vyacheslav) 8 July 2020 13: 18
    Is it possible to state a little shorter, for example - figs to you all over the erysipelas, etc!
  3. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) 8 July 2020 13: 22
    This "general" is, rather, Nebukhaipapa, but in general - all of them "..vnokomanduchi" are very symbolic - Poltorak, Muzhelozhenko.
  4. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Alexander) 8 July 2020 13: 46
    Yes, and so it is clear how it all ends. They will go to the Crimea, finally lose at least the entire Donbass and the Kharkiv region, and this is the most optimistic forecast for them.
  5. Dmitry S. Offline Dmitry S.
    Dmitry S. (Dmitry Sanin) 8 July 2020 13: 48
    Quote: AICO
    Is it possible to state a little shorter, for example - figs to you all over the erysipelas, etc!

    Can you imagine what the news feeds would look like then?
  6. Siberian southerner (Sergey A) 8 July 2020 14: 06
    Such a funny headline.
  7. Dimy4 Offline Dimy4
    Dimy4 (Dmitriy) 8 July 2020 14: 40
    They will attack first, and then immediately surrender. Feed, they say, we are now prisoners.
    1. They will not give up! They are HEROES! Go ahead, Ukraine! On the assault!
  8. This is all nonsense - a mighty blow of tens of thousands of UPA patriots - and Perekop will be taken, Sevastopol will also fall, and the yellow-blasted ensign will again proudly fly over the Crimea! And the cowardly rush who were captured will be thrown into Ukrainian concentration camps to rebuild Nenka for bread and water!
    Come on, Ukrainians! At Perekop! To Sevastopol! To Simferopol!
  9. shinobi Offline shinobi
    shinobi (Yuri) 9 July 2020 09: 50
    The nonsense hope for NATO. And their Georgian example does not teach anything.
  10. antibi0tikk Offline antibi0tikk
    antibi0tikk (Sergei) 9 July 2020 10: 15
    What for? Why write this ???
    To start a joke in the subject.

    Floats somehow alone (let it be a corrupt official or a prostitute) on a cruise ship. And then a storm, a hurricane, a storm, the liner is about to capsize. He prays with all his might: "Lord, save and save!" Here the sea-ocean calms down and the liner calmly returns to the port in a week. Three years later, this one goes on a cruise again. Again storm 9 points, again praying: "Lord, save and save!" But then a voice from above: "I have been collecting you, creatures, on this liner for three years. The liner flips over, everyone drowns.

    The anecdote is so-so, not very funny, but the meaning is important! Let these creatures try to recapture Crimea. Just the most restless banderlogs will gather for such an event, here we, with God's help, will calm them down and smell the roots of daisies. And so, after reading such articles, go and the brave warriors of Crimea will be afraid to return Ukraine to the Ridnumat. Then look for these creatures in Europe and Canada ....
  11. Yuri Mikhailovsky (Yuri Mikhailovsky) 9 July 2020 12: 50
    He says what this country wants to hear.
  12. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
    Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) 12 July 2020 21: 34
    What Ukraine is really capable of or not, only time can show. In Russia, the very difficult political and economic situation and the election of the US President in November will be very important. The calculation in Ukraine is a strong weakening in the Russian Federation and, accordingly, disorganization. Ukraine, as a Western project, a priori cannot be left without full support, and therefore, Ukraine will have real chances to take Crimea back. So, do not giggle and relax in vain.
    1. Alexander Booth Offline Alexander Booth
      Alexander Booth 15 July 2020 08: 43
      They have no chance, except for one, to lose all the former Russian regions donated by Lenin, and there the Psheks with the Magyars and Romanians will catch up, and in the best case, the ruin will remain within the Kiev region, well, maybe a couple more regions will remain.
      1. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
        Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) 16 July 2020 00: 10
        Funny reasoning. As long as the Americans rule the collective farm, and this will continue for a long time, neither Psheks nor Magyars would even dare to go to the toilet in Ukraine, where they cannot, without permission. And Europe is hysterically afraid of a revision of borders in any form. You referendum in Catalonia, as an example, is not enough?
        1. EVYN WIXH Offline EVYN WIXH
          EVYN WIXH (EVYN WIXH) 17 July 2020 17: 04
          But what about Kosovo. Nobody canceled the right of the strong, everything else (international law, conventions, UNs, etc.) is essentially an empty talk for the public. Russia did not dare to rock the boat even in the 90s, but what was the chance. Who is working for now? It is not known. Who is first? Donkey go paddy ...
          1. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
            Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) 18 July 2020 13: 39
            About Kosovo, this is another opera and a long question.