Who is to blame for the fall in Lukashenko's ratings and where is Belarus going


Allied Belarus stood at a crossroads. This August will decide where Minsk will go: to the West, along the path of "European integration", or to the East, to integration with Russia. President Lukashenko himself practically did not leave a chance to remain neutral, playing on contradictions.


For the first time in 26 years of unchallenged rule, the possibility of Alexander Grigoryevich being re-elected is being put into real doubt, and, with all due respect, he is to blame for this. Too many "red lines" have been crossed, too much is said of what was not worth publicly speaking. The rating of the Belarusian president, according to Western media, fell below 50%. In Belarus itself, it is considered equal to 3%. The ill-wishers came up with the head of state the nickname "a mustachioed cockroach", which personally hurt him.

Unfortunately, all this does not happen out of the blue. For decades, Minsk played quite successfully on the contradictions between Russia and the West, as far as possible “milking” both sides, but now this scheme has stopped working. On the one hand, President Lukashenko broke pots with Moscow, deliberately failing to fulfill the integration agreements within the Union State with Russia. As a result, the Kremlin began to hold policies to remove Belarus from the Russian oil and gas needle. It painfully affected her the economy, and the existing problems were exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic.

On the other hand, moving to the West is also not an option for Minsk. Before my eyes there is a clear example of "European integration" in the face of the neighboring Baltic countries and rapidly impoverished and depopulating Ukraine. Alexander Grigoryevich himself is not expected in the EU, which was recently hinted at by the respected German publication DW, which published a publication on the political killings of oppositionists in Belarus. It can be assumed that at some point all the dirt will be pulled out. At the same time, Minsk itself allowed to dig a hole for itself, having launched numerous foreign NGOs into the country, which now complains about the results of its activities, looking for the roots of a conspiracy against itself in Poland and Russia.

President Lukashenko managed to awkwardly insult all Russians in an awkward phrase, saying:

I already said rudely once: we ourselves are Russians. It is impossible to push us together. Belarus is a Russian with a quality mark.


Here, it seems, he boasted of our unity, but it turned out that the Russian Russians were “lower in quality” than the Belarusian. Perhaps this is just an unfortunate expression, but still an unpleasant sediment remained. And now, with all this baggage of problems, Alexander Grigoryevich goes to the next presidential election. There are three main options for further developments.

Scenario One. Lukashenko re-elected, opposition protests pressed by security forces. Voting results are recognized both in Russia and in the West. Everything continues in the same vein as it was before. This is probably the most preferred option for Belarusians. But there are other scenarios.

Elections are being held, but their results are disputed. Protesters take to the streets, and security officials are in no hurry to disperse them. Activists release candidate Barabiko from prison and demolish Lukashenka’s regime, while the president himself flees the country, like Yanukovych once. And then everything will depend on whose person Victor Barabiko is.

In the second scenario, Minsk is led by a pro-Russian protege, and Lukashenko takes refuge in the West, where the election results are not recognized. In this case, Barabiko, as the “agent of the Kremlin”, pursues a policy of integrating Belarus into the Union State with Russia. But for this we will most likely receive another portion of sanctions. In the third scenario, Barabiko is a pro-Western candidate, and then everything develops according to the Ukrainian scenario. President Lukashenko is fleeing to Russia, and everything will depend on whether the Kremlin has learned at least some lessons from the 2014 Maidan.

If not, he will recognize Barabiko as “the best choice of the Belarusian people”, after which we will receive another Nezalezhnaya on the border instead of the last ally. If so, the election results will not be recognized, and Russian troops will have to enter Minsk to restore order and maintain the constitutional order. But for this, we, too, are likely to receive a portion of Western sanctions.

These are sad prospects. It remains to decide whose person the candidate Viktor Barabiko is.
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  1. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 26 June 2020 15: 36
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    Scenario One. Lukashenko re-elected, opposition protests pressed by security forces. Voting results are recognized both in Russia and in the West. Everything continues in the same vein as it was before. This is probably the most preferred option for Belarusians.

    - Yes ...- this scenario is the most preferable ...
    - And with two other scenarios, a terrible tragedy can happen ...
    - What is it ??? - And it is that ... what ... what - at the alleged request of the Belarusian people and the prevention of bloodshed ...- Ukraine (and Poland too) can send its troops to Belarus .. . - Like this...
    - Well, there it is ... - after this, anyone can be chosen ...- at least Mishiko Saakashvili (just kidding) ...
    - But is Russia ready "in case" of what to send its troops into Belarus ... - Or who will get ahead of anyone ...
    - And do not care about sanctions ...- there is no time for sanctions ...
    - My plus to the author ...
  2. Cheburashk Offline
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 26 June 2020 16: 51
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    The first option is the reassignment of Lukashenko. For Russia, the second option is better, and as for sanctions against Russia, they will always be !!!! So Russia’s fear of sanctions is to do nothing at all and just wait for its end.
    Belarus is important for Russia. The Americans are sleeping and see that Belarus is opposed to Russia.
    Amers have such an “Operation Anaconda” to strangle Russia. Just do not say that Amer is now not up to Russia, huh !!! Even before Russia, just imagine (God forbid) that what is happening in Belarus is the same as in Ukraine ?? !! Now imagine all the consequences of this! And the fact that missile defense is moving as close to the borders of Russia as possible also fits into this amer operation.
    Whether Russia will enter the troops or not, I have my own opinion, but this requires the legal foundations of Russia, and yes, there will still be sanctions, simply because there is Russia!
  3. Cheburashk Offline
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 26 June 2020 16: 57
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    Quote: gorenina91
    Scenario One. Lukashenko re-elected, opposition protests pressed by security forces. Voting results are recognized both in Russia and in the West. Everything continues in the same vein as it was before. This is probably the most preferred option for Belarusians.

    - Yes ...- this scenario is the most preferable ...
    - And with two other scenarios, a terrible tragedy can happen ...
    - What is it ??? - And it is that ... what ... what - at the alleged request of the Belarusian people and the prevention of bloodshed ...- Ukraine (and Poland too) can send its troops to Belarus .. . - Like this...
    - Well, there it is ... - after this, anyone can be chosen ...- at least Mishiko Saakashvili (just kidding) ...
    - But is Russia ready "in case" of what to send its troops into Belarus ... - Or who will get ahead of anyone ...
    - And do not care about sanctions ...- there is no time for sanctions ...
    - My plus to the author ...

    I do not quite agree with you. About the first option for sure (this is a separate topic). For Lukashenko - yes, this option is super! Russia will bring its troops into Belarus - with a high degree of probability that it will not, but, let’s say, NATO and their satellites can EASY to do this. And no matter what happens later, it will be in the hands of the Americans. As they say, there is something to think about!
    1. gorenina91 Offline
      gorenina91 (Irina) 26 June 2020 17: 30
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      I don’t quite agree with you. About the first option for sure (this is a separate issue) For Lukashenko, yes, this option is super!

      - Ukraine (and Poland) can easily send troops to Belarus ... - Lukashenko can really finally “fly off the tower” and, in order to stay in power ...- he can go for such a thing ... - ask for help from fraternal Slavic peoples ... - whose "democracy rules" ... - These two "democratic states" ... - Ukraine and Poland will easily fulfill this request of the supposedly Belarusian people ... - In this they will try to simply compete ... :
      - Poland in order to receive new benefits from the USA;
      - And Ukraine automatically gets NATO membership ...- and at the same time, all NATO states in such an extreme situation (almost a situation of "state of war") will unanimously and urgently vote for it ...
      - And all Belarusian security officials are subordinate and very well fed by Lukashenko ...- and the Belarusian army will remain "neutral" ...; and the forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the KGB of Belarus will take part in the dispersal and arrest of demonstrators and protesters ... and pro-Russian organizations and other opposition ...
      - So ... everything is serious enough ... - It might even reach ... to ... to the physical elimination of Lukashenko himself ... - After all, the stakes here are enormously prohibitive ... - everyone has something to cut down for .. - And to Russia in the first place ...
  4. Cheburashk Offline
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 26 June 2020 17: 44
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    Quote: gorenina91
    I do not quite agree with you. About the first option for sure (this is a separate issue). For Lukashenko - yes, this is a super option!

    Ukraine (and Poland) can easily send troops to Belarus ... - Lukashenko can really finally “fly off the tower” and, in order to stay in power ...- he can go to such a thing ... - ask for help from fraternal Slavic peoples ... - for whom "democracy rules" ... - These two "democratic states" ... - Ukraine and Poland will easily fulfill this request of the supposedly Belarusian people ... - In this they will try to simply compete ...:
    - Poland in order to receive new benefits from the USA;
    - And Ukraine automatically gets NATO membership ...- and at the same time, all NATO states in such an extreme situation (almost a situation of "state of war") will unanimously and urgently vote for it ...
    - And all Belarusian security officials are subordinate and very well fed by Lukashenko ...- and the Belarusian army will remain "neutral" ...; and the forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the KGB of Belarus will take part in the dispersal and arrest of demonstrators and protesters ... and pro-Russian organizations and other opposition ...
    - So ... everything is serious enough ... - It might even reach ... to ... to the physical elimination of Lukashenko himself ... - After all, the stakes here are enormously prohibitive ... - everyone has something to cut down for .. - And to Russia in the first place ...

    I agree with you completely. Especially in particular about Lukashenko. And then blame everything on Russia and blame at the beginning of almost the Third World War. Yes, everything is very serious. And if you consider that if you cut off Belarus from Russia, then the question of Kaliningrad will become even more acute!
    1. gorenina91 Offline
      gorenina91 (Irina) 26 June 2020 18: 01
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      - Yes, everything is real enough, Mr. Cheburashk (Vladimir) ...
      - My plus to you ...
  5. 123 Offline
    123 (123) 26 June 2020 18: 00
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    There are no pro-Russian candidates there. It remains only to wait and hope that the Belarusians will show wisdom and pass this exam themselves.
  6. Cheburashk Offline
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 26 June 2020 18: 20
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    Quote: 123
    There are no pro-Russian candidates there. It remains only to wait and hope that the Belarusians will show wisdom and pass this exam themselves.

    Why do you think so ???? Before the election, as they say, you can say anything and anything. Another thing is what will happen after the election!
    1. gorenina91 Offline
      gorenina91 (Irina) 26 June 2020 19: 16
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      Why do you think so???? Before the election, as they say, you can say anything and anything. Another thing is what will happen after the election!

      - Yes, of course ... - In any case, Lukashenko will hold elections ...- but how can all this end ...
      - My plus ...
  7. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker 26 June 2020 20: 01
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    I am an ardent defender of Lukashenko on this site. Let's get the garlic. And what exactly is Lukashenko's fault that the opposition and our Putin fans are so “bumping” into him? Facts where? Lukashenko sold and ruined industry? Hospitals, schools reduced, how Putin? During his reign, his $ billionaires increased 14 times, like Putin’s? Twice as many officials? The number of suicides infected with HIV has doubled, as in Russia? He promised not to raise his pension, but increased it? This article is simply "empty-handed." No facts, no claims with facts! If only a program of this Barabico were written! And then Lukashenko is bad, Barabiko is good! If they had spoken to me like that without specific complaints ... In a lobeshnik immediately. So, make specific claims, or be silent in a rag!
    1. Sergey Latyshev Offline
      Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 26 June 2020 22: 46
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      All right. Old Man is extolled, as he buys gas, then scolded when he begins to bargain ...
      And the ratings do not care, we see it at home.
      No real ratings are needed when 99,9% can be written uncontrollably at the polls.
    2. Cheburashk Offline
      Cheburashk (Vladimir) 27 June 2020 00: 22
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      Quote: steel maker
      I am an ardent defender of Lukashenko on this site. Let's get the garlic. And what exactly is Lukashenko's fault that the opposition and our Putin fans are so “bumping” into him? Facts where? Lukashenko sold and ruined industry? Hospitals, schools reduced, how Putin? During his reign, his $ billionaires increased 14 times, like Putin’s? Twice as many officials? The number of suicides infected with HIV has doubled, as in Russia? He promised not to raise his pension, but increased it? This article is simply "empty-handed." No facts, no claims with facts! If only a program of this Barabico were written! And then Lukashenko is bad, Barabiko is good! If they had spoken to me like that without specific complaints ... In a lobeshnik immediately. So, make specific claims, or be silent in a rag!

      I'm afraid to even ask you - where do you live? And then they scared everyone !!!! And then let's talk about the claims!
      1. gorenina91 Offline
        gorenina91 (Irina) 27 June 2020 05: 30
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        I'm afraid to even ask you, where do you live? And then they scared everyone !!!! And then let's talk about the claims!

        - Yes, Mr. Cheburashk (Vladimir) ...- it's never too late to be scared and it's never too early ...
        - But personally, I am not afraid, but already I want to talk about claims (and not later, but now) ...
        - What's the matter??? - Personally, I’m here ... I support you here, I put you the pluses; and here you are freely twisting and ranting, with my support ... -so, things will not work, Mr. Cheburashk (Vladimir) ... - What is it that I have two minuses in the comment, where I personally support you ?? ? - What is it ...- one minus yours ???
        - You decided that you are here ... such a dashing cowboy guy that you can show your “ignore-ambition" ... - Well, slap clumsily along the puddles further under the crocodile accordion song ... - I also found a hero ...
    3. gorenina91 Offline
      gorenina91 (Irina) 27 June 2020 05: 15
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      I am an ardent defender of Lukashenko on this site. Let's get the garlic. And what exactly is Lukashenko's fault that the opposition and our Putin fans are so “bumping” into him? Facts where? Lukashenko sold and ruined industry? Hospitals, schools reduced, how Putin?

      - Yes, Mr. Steelworker ... - I personally agree with you ...
      - And just like that, and more than once ...- I personally wrote about this a year and a half ago ... - And today I will subscribe to this ...
      - Yes, Lukashenko did not surrender his Belarus to Russia and did not let the Russian oligarch wolves into Belarus ... - And there was no union of Russia and Belarus into one state ... - If this happened, today in Belarus there would be a complete wasteland. .. - factories, enterprises, hospitals would be closed; agriculture would be in real decline, etc ... - And in Belarus today there would be real chaos ... - Yes, that is exactly what would happen ... - And personally, I already wrote about this in detail .. .
      - And today everything can happen just like that, and just like that everything can happen ... - But it can happen for another reason ...
      - Here I personally, discussing this topic ...- I simply state the facts ...
      - And the facts are such that it is real ...- the desperate Lukashenko today can commit the irreparable ...- in a hopeless situation ...
      - Well, personally, I don’t know what he’s going to do ... - But he really can act on the principle: “So don’t you get anyone !!!" ... - And he will turn to the West for help ... - He already hopes for Russia nothing ... - Well, and then what ... the situation ... is "Radish horseradish is not sweeter" ...
      - I’m talking about this personally ... - And personally, I would like Lukashenko to remain in power for the next term ...
      - My plus to you ... would put more, but the rules do not allow ...
    4. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 27 June 2020 07: 40
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      Personally, I respect Lukashenko as a person who defends the interests of his state. Not only their own and their friends, namely the state. Unfortunately, these interests often run counter to the interests of Russia (rejection of integration) and the friends of our president (economic takeover by oligarchs).
      We need integration, but without these people at the feeding trough. Such is my personal conclusion.
      1. Cheburashk Offline
        Cheburashk (Vladimir) 27 June 2020 20: 59
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        Why does Lukashenko treat Belarus like this (from your words), he simply considers this country to be his own, and people are serfs.
        1. Marzhecki Offline
          Marzhecki (Sergei) 28 June 2020 14: 09
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          Quote: Cheburashk
          Why does Lukashenko treat Belarus like this (from your words), he simply considers this country to be his own, and people are serfs.

          Well, then it will naturally be asked the same question about our country, who treats it how and how it operates ..?
  8. Dima Dima_2 Offline
    Dima Dima_2 (Dima Dima) 26 June 2020 23: 39
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    Power must change.
    1. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 27 June 2020 07: 34
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      And not only in Belarus.
  9. Sidor sidorini Offline
    Sidor sidorini (Sidor) 27 June 2020 10: 45
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    If Russia would show at least some growth and promising movement, the decision would be easier to make Lukashenko.
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  11. olpin51 Offline
    olpin51 (Oleg Pinegin) 27 June 2020 11: 26
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    Always, everywhere and at all times, people are just a mass of people that need to be skillfully guided. And all these elections are just a screen within the law. If something depended on them, then they would have been canceled long ago.
  12. cmonman Offline
    cmonman (Garik Mokin) 27 June 2020 19: 06
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    ... and, with all due respect to him ....

    Sergey, discover the secret of respect for Lukashenko? What merit? Before whom or for what?