Egypt's entry into the Libyan conflict is fraught with devastating consequences


The Libyan campaign has seen another turning point. Now in conflict threatens to enter Egypt is already in full force, faced with Turkish military and pro-Turkish militants sent by President Erdogan to support Tripoli. How real is the war between Cairo and Ankara, and will it not be complicated by the intervention of more and more new players, among which may be Algeria and France?


Just a year ago, the army of Khalifa Haftar, who was behind Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, France and even, behind the scenes, Russia, tried to take the capital of “former” Libya in order to establish unified power in this territory. However, the PNS Faiza Saraj with the support of Turkey, Qatar and Italy resisted. Ankara was especially active in being able to knock out for itself in exchange for direct military assistance the favorable conditions for the redistribution of the sea shelves of the Eastern Mediterranean.

Today, it is Turkey that looks the most winning side. In addition to the “Mediterranean Shield” on the path of competitors' energy projects, it gained its own military bases in North Africa, as well as control over all migration routes to Europe. This will give Ankara the opportunity to exert pressure on the EU, which is unacceptable for the countries of the Old World. To stop the Turkish activity of the international coalition, a new player had to be nominated. Apparently, the Kremlin was offered such a role, but its capabilities to wage another war with Erdogan across three seas were clearly not enough.

To balance and bring to life the Turks will now have to Egypt. This country has a common border with Libya over a length of 1200 kilometers. Cairo rightly fears jihadists coming to power in Tripoli. The victory of PNS Sarajah with the help of Ankara over Haftar and gaining control over key territories will become a prologue to the renaissance of jihadism, which poses a threat to neighbors. Previously, Cairo supported Haftar with weapons, but the Field Marshal’s LNA ingloriously fled, retreating in front of a professional army of interventionists and thugs brought from Syria.

It is very curious on what grounds the Egyptian army can enter Libya. The only legal (legal) and internationally recognized government in this country is the PNS Sarajah. But at the same time it is illegitimate (not supported and not recognized by the majority of the population). Cairo can send troops to Libya at the invitation of the country's Parliament, which from the point of view of international law is not legal, but in fact legitimate. This is such a curious legal conflict, which in theory should be taken into account by other "geopolitics".

Is Egypt ready to really fight Turkey? The question is controversial. One side, economy this country is experiencing serious problems, a violent conflict is also possible on the nose with Ethiopia, about which we told earlier. To wage war on two fronts simultaneously is the path to defeat. On the other hand, the Egyptians cannot sit idly by either. Cairo does not want an Islamic state to appear on its border. Moreover, he needs to regain authority in the Arab world, especially since the support of the Saudis and the Emirates has expressed his support.

It is likely that Turkey and Egypt would prefer to limit themselves to a certain division of the former Libya and the creation of buffer zones. But the problem is that further forces can intervene in the game. So, Paris can say its word. Recently, a respected publication Le Monde published a publication in which the chief of staff of the French army, Thierry Burkhard, said that the Fifth Republic should now prepare for war with a “symmetrical adversary," and he cited the situation in North Africa as an example:

In place of the suppression of uprisings come new, "symmetrical" confrontation "state versus state." The separation of zones of influence in Libya between Turkey and Russia shows that such clashes may begin earlier than planned, and not far from France.

That is, in addition to the foreign legion and the “proxy”, Paris is able to send its troops to Libya if it considers that its interests are not taken into account properly. Even more interesting is that, on the other hand, Algeria may oppose the former metropolis. Although it is not customary to name this country in the list of states supporting Saraj, its authorities directly supported the PNS:

The fall of Tripoli would be the red line, because it would lead to the collapse of Libya.

Interestingly, the Algerian army prefers to use mainly Russian-made weapons: Su-30MKA multipurpose fighters, Project 636 diesel submarines, T-90S tanks, S-300PMU-2 anti-aircraft missile systems, and Pantsir-C1 air defense missile systems. The Egyptians bought a lot of expensive American weapons, for example, the M1 Abrams tanks and MRAP armored vehicles, but also the Russian S-300VM Antey-2500 air defense systems, the MiG-29 multi-role fighters and the ill-fated Mistral. Fighters of the 4 ++ Su-35 generation are also approaching.

The conflict, where Turkey and Algeria may start fighting with Egypt and France, is quite capable of radically redrawing the map of the Greater Middle East and is fraught with devastating consequences for the entire region.
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  1. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker 23 June 2020 14: 29
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    It’s good that Russia has no place left! The more Turks have a headache, the faster we will rake in Syria.
    1. mikado68 Offline
      mikado68 (Rasul) 23 June 2020 18: 18
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      Do you guarantee that Turkey and the USA are not at the same time in Syria?
  2. Bulanov Offline
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 23 June 2020 15: 23
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    ... on what grounds can the Egyptian army enter Libya.

    And on what grounds did the American army enter Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria? On what grounds did Serbia be bombed?
    It may well claim that they entered on the basis of coercion to peace ...
  3. kriten Offline
    kriten (Vladimir) 23 June 2020 16: 25
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    If Egypt expels the Turks, there will be no limit to gratitude, especially from the wealthy Arabs who hate the Turks. And Russia is a plus, no matter what the authorities say. Patrons of terrorists should be beaten, not fed with free gas and nuclear power plants. We can not yet, so even though Egypt ....
    1. Barmaley_2 Offline
      Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) 24 June 2020 00: 28
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      Do not drive the Turks. And for the Russian Federation, the Turks, although a very difficult partner, but in the coming period of the transformation of the world system of division of labor, which is happening before our eyes, they must enter a new emerging economic single zone. So you don’t understand what is Turkey today for the Russian Federation and emerging economic zones and what is happening.
  4. mikado68 Offline
    mikado68 (Rasul) 23 June 2020 18: 17
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    Algeria will never go to war against the interests of France. If she enters the war only on the side of the Egypt block UAE KSA France or does not enter at all. There, the authorities are also afraid, like fire, of the Islamists.
  5. Eduard Aplombov Offline
    Eduard Aplombov (Eduard Aplombov) 23 June 2020 21: 37
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    Losses are possible for us, Russia, and if the generals didn’t figure out the options, I would have looked at a good war like this on the network and in the news, especially frogmen against the Janissaries.
    I will root for Platini and Pierre Richard.
  6. Barmaley_2 Offline
    Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) 24 June 2020 00: 22
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    Egypt runs the risk of snatching such lyuli that it doesn’t seem enough, and the French in Africa over the past few years have frankly managed. The only interesting and worthy sight to be is a mess in the air and at sea. On earth, it is better not to try to compete with the Turks and Algerians of this uncoalization of France and Egypt: the Egyptians, with a serious batch, will flee their entire army (the warriors of them are figs, but also fight with fellow believers, but for incomprehensible to them anti-Judaic ideas - in general dumb version), even if the Turks and K will be 5 times smaller. The French, at the sight of the first significant blood (this is not even a loss from the Papuans with small arms, will be several special forces, of which, oh my God, what great fighters were at all times, the French were, and now they are not able to pacify the Aboriginal people for several years) as a whole country they will begin to faint and hold mass meetings against the war, etc. The most important thing for the Russian Federation is not to meddle frankly and openly in this conflict.
  7. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 24 June 2020 06: 28
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    - Read here ... comments ...
    - Well ... and the "kindergarten" ...

    Egypt's entry into the Libyan conflict is fraught with devastating consequences

    - What is the entry into ... in "Egypt's entry into the Libyan conflict" ???
    - Yes, all this is like laughing ...
    - Egypt needs to prepare for the "hunger invasion" of millions of Russian tourists; which will flood when after a week, two or three, Russia lifts the “tourism quarantine”; and Egypt, of course, will be canceled instantly, following Russia ... - That's how all the "military operations" of Egypt will begin ... - or rather, this will end ...
    - Yes, and which of the warriors from Egypt .., and even against the "Turkish forces" in Libya .. - this is just a laugh ... - And Israel is unlikely to really take a direct part as ... like, to put it mildly ... "Egyptian patron" ...
    By the way, with regard to Turkey, it is also awaiting the invasion of millions of our Russian tourist tourists ... - Everything is the same as in Egypt ...- As soon as our guarantor officially announces the lifting of the ban on foreign tourist raids (and I personally I am sure that this will happen within a month or a month and a half, and maybe earlier); then all this horde of Russian tourists will flood into Turkey ... - And the lucky Erdogan will also receive a very solid "cash cash" from Russian tourists ...
    - That's how Egypt and Turkey will "fight" for ... for the demand for Russian tourists ...
    - But Egypt will not go to Libya ... - Turkey is already hosting it with might and main ...
    - And today Turkey can only be stopped there ...- only the military operations of the "much more influential armed forces" ... - But there are none at the moment ... -so, in Libya today Turkey is the complete master of the "state of affairs" ...
  8. Alexzn Offline
    Alexzn (Alexander) 24 June 2020 08: 23
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    Quote: gorenina91
    -Read here ... comments ...
    - Well ... and the "kindergarten" ...

    Egypt's entry into the Libyan conflict is fraught with devastating consequences

    - What is the entry into ... in "Egypt's entry into the Libyan conflict" ???
    - Yes, all this is like laughing ...
    - Egypt needs to prepare for the "hunger invasion" of millions of Russian tourists; which will flood when after a week, two or three, Russia lifts the “tourism quarantine”; and Egypt, of course, will cancel immediately, after Russia ... - That's how all the "military operations" of Egypt will begin ... - or rather, this will end ...
    - Yes, and which of the warriors from Egypt .., and even against the "Turkish formations" in Libya .. -this is just a laugh ... - And Israel is unlikely to really take a direct part as ... like, to put it mildly ... "Egyptian patron" ...
    - By the way, with regard to Turkey, it is also awaiting the invasion of millions of our Russian sheep tourists ... - Everything is the same as in Egypt ...- As soon as our guarantor officially announces the lifting of the ban on foreign tourist raids (and personally I am sure that this will happen within a month or a month and a half, and maybe earlier); then all this horde of Russian tourists will flood into Turkey ... - And the lucky Erdogan will also receive a very solid "cash cash" from Russian tourists ...
    - That's how Egypt and Turkey will "fight" for ... for the demand for Russian tourists ...
    - But Egypt will not go to Libya ... -There Turkey is already hosting it ...
    - And today Turkey can only be stopped there ...- only the military operations of the "much more influential armed forces" ... - But there are none at the moment ... - so in Libya today Turkey is the complete master of the "state of affairs" ...

    Cheered up.
    However, take a look at the map - where is Sinai and where is that Libya.
    Israel as the patron saint of Egypt - pleased! We would still take the Martians under the protection and we can start intergalactic wars.
  9. jekasimf Offline
    jekasimf (jekasimf) 24 June 2020 14: 41
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    But Russia does not need to be pulled in here. The UAE will want to buy old junk, for the Haftar barmels - no question. But this is only business and nothing personal.