Gazprom actually deprived of the Turkish energy market

Gazprom has become a serious competitor in the Turkish and European energy markets. As the TANAP and TAP pipelines are launched into operation, the positions of Azerbaijan are becoming ever stronger. Will the former union republic be able to squeeze Russia?

We are talking about the project of the Southern Gas Corridor, the meaning of which is to reduce the dependence of the European Union on the Kremlin. The total length of the gas pipeline is 3,5 thousand kilometers, it includes the South Caucasus gas pipeline, the Trans-Anatolian (TANAP) and the Trans-Adriatic (TAP). In this case, we are interested in the last two.

The construction of TANAP was completed last year, through this pipeline Azerbaijan intended to supply 6 billion cubic meters of gas to Turkey and another 10 in transit through its territory to Southern Europe. In autumn, the Transandriatic gas pipeline is scheduled to be launched, through which Azerbaijani gas will flow to Italy, Greece and Bulgaria. Its capacity is 10 billion cubic meters, but can be increased to 20 billion. The problem is that this project will take a decent market share from Gazprom.

The positions of our “national treasure” have already become rather shaky. Until recently, Turkey was one of the largest buyers of Russian "blue fuel", but in the last two years, supply volumes have been steadily declining. There are several reasons for this.

At firstTurkish economy experiencing serious problems, production and demand for gas are falling.

SecondlyAnkara prudently diversified its energy supplies. In addition to the Turkish Stream, it receives gas through pipelines from Azerbaijan and Iran, and also purchases Algerian and Qatari LNG. Due to the binding of Gazprom’s contracts to oil with a time lag of six months, today liquefied natural gas costs the Turks cheaper than Russian.

Thirdlyexperts directly point out possible political background of what is happening. President Erdogan could have given local companies the go-ahead to reduce purchases of “blue fuel” from Russia “in punishment” for the Kremlin’s position on Syria and Libya. Despite the penalties provided for in the agreements, the European courts may eventually side with Turkey, as practice shows, about which we told earlier.

So, Ankara defiantly prefers other suppliers. She even selected more Azerbaijani gas from TANAP than was originally contracted. It turns out that Gazprom’s position in the Turkish market has sharply weakened, but what will happen next in Southern Europe?

The most interesting in this respect is Italy, which will account for up to 8 billion cubic meters of TAP (another 1 billion cubic meters will be bought from Baku by Greece and Albania). Competition in the Italian market is already quite high, but there are also positive aspects. First of all, it is worth noting that relations between Moscow and Rome are much more friendly and constructive than with Ankara. The medical assistance provided by the Russian military in Italy in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic will play a role.

There are also purely economic favorable conditions. A decrease in gas exports from Algeria was noted, which was caused by an increase in domestic consumption. Because of this, the pipelines from this African country to Italy are underloaded. “Blue fuel” from Azerbaijan in the first place may occupy precisely the Algerian share. In addition, it should be borne in mind that for supply Gazprom signed a contract with Rome on new conditions, without reference to oil prices. Gas prices for Italians will be determined on the basis of reference to the spot market, therefore they will be lower than for Turks.

It turns out that the state corporation is losing a significant share in the Turkish market, but retains its position in Italian.
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  1. boriz Online boriz
    boriz (boriz) 20 June 2020 12: 04
    The whole problem of TAP / TANAP is that when these projects were created and construction began, the productivity of Shah Deniz 2 was greatly overestimated. It will not be possible to increase the capacity of the transadriatic pipe: Azerbaijan stupidly has no extra 10 billion cubic meters. m of gas per year.
    There were even offers to Gazprom to participate in the project, but they were left without consequences. And Turkmenistan will not participate in this, its gas will go entirely to China.
    Erdogan has the same prostitution policy as Lukashenko. They like the negotiated prices, when they are lower than the spot prices, and when the opposite happens, they start screaming about expensive gas "they are robbing us!" Nobody wants to remember that before that they "robbed" Gazprom. Therefore, an agreement with Italy to peg prices for pipe gas is very reasonable. Gazprom will also get it from this.
    1. Nick Offline Nick
      Nick (Nikolai) 20 June 2020 13: 52
      Quote: boriz
      Therefore, an agreement with Italy on pegging pipe gas prices is very reasonable. Gazprom from this also have.

      And Marzhetsky just to shout "usepapalo" and get his bakshish. They have Russia lost the oil war, but time has shown the opposite. Now Gazprom has profiled polymers. Everything is as always, lies, fiction, propaganda. The pattern does not change.
      1. Observer2014 Offline Observer2014
        Observer2014 20 June 2020 14: 22
        And Marzhetsky just to shout "usepapalo" and get his bakshish.

        Yeah. And do not say "St. Petersburg Mykols" rule laughing Did he print anything but his crowd successfully assent? Anything? Wanganul? Well, what have you done so that you as a person are remembered? In addition to a slightly more greenish circle. laughing
        1. plabu Offline plabu
          plabu 21 June 2020 08: 52
          Quote: Observer2014
          ... Did he print something himself, besides his crowd, successfully assent? Anything? Wanganul? Well, what have you done so that you, as a person, are remembered? In addition to a slightly more greenish circle. laughing

          Report on the work done to you right on Instagram spread? laughing
          Schaz, I’ll give up everything and start scribbling articles, in batches - this is to Marzhetsky, and there are also "craftsmen" - on the parallel one, however, but this does not bother them - an article does not always attract even fiction, but on the other hand, it’s about archives, then about politics, but more acutely, like Lend-Lease, though with arithmetic errors, okay, then about something else, but the number is impressive. bully
          I haven’t read about armor, not mine, it’s completely ... bully
          PS I write articles in other publications, and on other topics. hi
        2. alexandrmakedo Offline alexandrmakedo
          alexandrmakedo (Dubovitsky Victor Kuzmich) 21 June 2020 17: 36
          Quote: Observer2014
          And Marzhetsky just to shout "usepapalo" and get his bakshish.

          Yeah. And do not say, "St. Petersburg Mykols" rule. laughing Did he print anything but his crowd successfully assent? Anything? Wanganul? Well, what have you done so that you as a person are remembered? In addition to a slightly more greenish circle. laughing

          How is it? Only to assent to the god? List of articles here. You definitely, without a twinge, assented no conscience. Auto RU. Not in the name of being caressed in response?
          You would have written in a personal rooting, or something! Or on neutral ground, somewhere away from the eyes of the author. It turns out painfully fake. And let me know why your tricolor is better?
        3. Nick Offline Nick
          Nick (Nikolai) 22 June 2020 07: 49
          Quote: Observer2014
          Yeah. And do not say "St. Petersburg Mykols" rule. I typed something myself ..

          And should?

          Quote: Observer2014
          Well, what have you done so that you as a person are remembered?

          Do I have to?
          I certainly will not write nonsense, which Marzhetsky writes, and if you are an adherent of the Marzhetsky sect, then you are not all intellectually alright.
    2. Astronaut Offline Astronaut
      Astronaut (San Sanych) 20 June 2020 22: 06
      Ahead, the author overestimated the possibilities of Azerbaijan.
      By the way, Turkmen supply gas not only to China, but also to Iran.
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 20 June 2020 15: 45
    But in fact, it is clear that they, like the rest, have built pipelines and are now dropping prices. Cheap - download. Not cheap - don’t download.
    Many suppliers - higher competition - cheaper gas. That's about prices nowhere a word ...