The fall of the global aviation industry did not go around Russia


The coronavirus pandemic dealt a terrible blow not only to the airline business, but also to the world's leading aircraft manufacturers - Boeing, Airbus and Embraer. The revenue of the Western giants has already fallen significantly, and this may last several more years. Unfortunately, these events will negatively affect our country. What happened?


Before the arrival of COVID-19, the total global fleet amounted to almost 27 thousand airliners, and their total sales in 2019 were estimated at a record $ 80 billion. Coronavirus and related restrictions have caused terrible damage to a huge industry. It is estimated that next year no more than 20 thousand aircraft will fly into the air, and the rest will be unclaimed. Experts say that in the coming years there will be a “surplus” of airliners, in the thousands.

A representative of Qatar Airways, one of the largest air carriers in the world, said:

We have already warned Boeing and Airbus that we will not take any aircraft this year and next. The planes that we were planning to receive over the next two to three years, we are now delaying their delivery for eight to ten years.


They can be understood: according to forecasts, the total revenue of air transport companies by the end of 2020 will be halved compared to the previous year. Business is forced to reduce costs, which is done by reducing the program of buying new airliners. Because of the forced downtime, carrier companies found it more profitable to massively engage in “cannibalization”, to allow non-flying aircraft for repair parts.

These are very bad news for the largest aircraft manufacturers. According to Reuters, sales of new airliners will drop by the end of the year to $ 20 billion, that is, four times. Not only the aforementioned Boeing and Airbus will suffer, but also a huge number of related enterprises supplying components for the conveyor and providing after-sales service. Among them are such giants as General Electric, Raytheon Technologies, Rolls-Royce Holdings and others. According to analysts, they may lose three quarters of their revenue.

Unfortunately, just so gloating over the problems of Western corporations will not work. Russia also participates in this production chain at the bottom, raw material link. Deliveries of Russian titanium satisfy the needs of Embraer by 100%, Airbus - by 65% ​​and Boeing - by 35%. In the fall, it is planned to suspend production at VSMPO-Avisma, the largest domestic producer of titanium. According to her representative, a stop can be more profitable than working "at low load."

Experts point out that VSMPO-Avisma may be forced to even reduce its investment program and start borrowing funds to ensure the stability of its financial condition.
Photos used: https://defense.gov/
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  1. 123 Offline
    123 (123) 19 June 2020 12: 18
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    Unfortunately, just so gloating over the problems of Western corporations will not work. Russia also participates in this production chain at the bottom, raw material link. Deliveries of Russian titanium satisfy the needs of Embraer by 100%, Airbus - by 65% ​​and Boeing - by 35%. In the fall, it is planned to suspend production at VSMPO-Avisma, the largest domestic producer of titanium.

    Why doesn’t it work? Another how it goes. yes As far as I remember, it has been repeatedly argued that the “commodity” economies are much more vulnerable to the impact of the crisis. Say, to the Russian economy due to falling demand for oil in general "kirdyk", demand fell and everything is very bad. Here we have a similar situation, the problems of VSMPO-Avisma will undoubtedly negatively affect the Russian economy, but the degree of influence is not comparable with the problems of Western manufacturers. Indeed, besides the mentioned Airbus, Boeing and Embraer, a lot of suppliers are involved in the production chain, including "at the bottom, raw link". Yes, yes, perhaps the news is for the author, but the" normal "countries produce not only high-tech products, but also the very raw materials at the very" lower level ".
    So compare the level of production decline, on the one hand, VSMPO-Avisma, on the other - a long production chain. Compare also how this will affect economic performance.

    VSMPO-Avisma annually produces 40 tons of metal, 000% is exported. Of course, it’s difficult to build 70 tons, but you can find a way out. For example, build titanium submarines. But what to do "leading Western aircraft manufacturers", let it headache there.
    Well, for reference, Ural Boeing Manufacturing is a joint venture, reducing the production of titanium parts in the Urals is a problem not only of VSMPO-Avisma, but also of Boeing.
    1. Igor Pavlovich Offline
      Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 19 June 2020 12: 32
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      ... for example, build titanium submarines.

      Manilov - a common name ...
      1. 123 Offline
        123 (123) 19 June 2020 13: 17
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        Manilov - a common name ...

        Smerdyakovschina - negative worldview .... winked
        1. Igor Pavlovich Offline
          Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 19 June 2020 13: 27
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          I'm talking about dreamers, and you're talking about hate ... a strange analogy. hi
          1. 123 Offline
            123 (123) 19 June 2020 13: 54
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            I, rather, about contempt. hi
            1. Igor Pavlovich Offline
              Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 19 June 2020 14: 06
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              Smerdyakov is a resident of Skotoprigonyevsk, the illegitimate son of Fyodor Pavlovich Karamazov, his lackey. He owns the words:

              I hate all of Russia

              hi
              1. 123 Offline
                123 (123) 19 June 2020 14: 21
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                Smerdyakov is a resident of Skotoprigonyevsk, the illegitimate son of Fyodor Pavlovich Karamazov, his lackey. He owns the words:
                "I hate all of Russia" ...

                Thanks for the tour, clarifications, I believe, are not required. Only more words there, incomplete quote hi

                - Can a Russian peasant against an educated person have a feeling? By his ignorance, he cannot have any feeling. From the very moment of my childhood, when I heard, it happened, “with a little one,” as if I would have thrown myself on the wall. I hate all of Russia, Marya Kondratyevna.
                - If you were a young military cadet or a young hussar, you would not say that, you would take out your saber and protect all of Russia.
                “I not only do not want to be a military hussar, Marya Kondratyevna, but I, on the contrary, wish to destroy all the soldiers, sir.”
                - And when the enemy comes, who will protect us?
                “Yes, and not at all, sir.” In the twelfth year, there was a great invasion of the first French emperor Napoleon, the current father, to Russia, and it’s good if these Frenchmen conquered us then: a smart nation would conquer a very stupid one and add it to itself. There would even be other orders, sir.
                1. Igor Pavlovich Offline
                  Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 19 June 2020 14: 47
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                  I re-read it again and nowhere did I see "contempt". You would simply agree that "Smerdyakovschina is a negative world outlook ...." is an unsuccessful example, and has nothing to do with either Manilov or titanium submarines, and you stopped lurking about this topic. hi
                  1. 123 Offline
                    123 (123) 19 June 2020 15: 06
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                    Do you only perceive letters? The meaning of the read is not of interest? Have you tried to comprehend what you read?
                    Your example of manilism is no more successful and also has nothing to do with titanium. They began to pray themselves. hi
                    1. Igor Pavlovich Offline
                      Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 19 June 2020 15: 21
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                      ... it seems that we have diametrically opposite views on both analysis and logic. I am taking my leave for the sim. hi
                      1. 123 Offline
                        123 (123) 19 June 2020 15: 42
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                        What is wrong with logic? Demand for titanium is falling, respectively, the price too. The state may well increase purchases. No one is surprised that Trump bought up cheaper oil. Submarines are simply named as an example of possible use; titanium is required for them decently. Deep-sea research, like, is not going to stop yet hi
    2. Arkharov Offline
      Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 19 June 2020 13: 32
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      For example, to build titanium submarines - let's build. Does it somehow save our economy? In Soviet times, they were already building. Let's do titanium spoons. Strongly reminiscent of:

      Sometimes, looking from the porch to the courtyard and the pond, he would say how good it would be if suddenly an underground passage was drawn from the house or a stone bridge was built across the pond, on which there would be benches on both sides of the bench, and the merchants also sold various small goods necessary for the peasants - while his eyes were made extremely sweet and his face took on the most satisfied expression, however, all these projects ended in just one word ...

      N. V. Gogol, “Dead Souls,” part 1, ch. 2 (1842).
      1. 123 Offline
        123 (123) 19 June 2020 14: 09
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        For example, to build titanium submarines - let's build. Does it somehow save our economy? In Soviet times, they were already building. Let's do titanium spoons.

        Your nagging economy will help even less. Submarines are just an example. Why not? Just buying metal in the state reserve or increasing the volume of purchases of titanium products for Russian aviation can help the company minimize losses through a difficult period.
        By the way, titanium dishes are already being done, and shovels, and much more, but that will not help, the volumes are not the same.
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 19 June 2020 14: 12
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    Further it will be seen whether the raw material or not will suffer more. Prices in Russia have already risen.
    Interesting in America and Europe as well? Or more?
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) 19 June 2020 15: 10
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      Prices in Russia have already risen.
      Interesting in America and Europe as well? Or more?

      If interested, google to help hi

      Consumer prices, according to a published document, will increase in Europe by 2% in 2020, in Asia - by 2,5%, in North America - by 0,8%, in South - by 8,1%. The strongest price increase is expected in the Middle East - it will amount to 8,4%.
      In Russia, price increases are expected at 3,1%. Of the countries closest to Europe, the largest increase in consumer prices is projected in Turkey (+ 12%). In the Middle East - in Iran (+ 34,2%). In some countries, consumer prices will even drop slightly - for example, in Greece (-0,5%), Lithuania and Latvia (-0,3% in both countries), Switzerland (-0,4%)

      (rg.ru, April 15)
      1. Sergey Latyshev Offline
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 19 June 2020 15: 37
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        Спасибо. 2% - это ерунда. 3,1 + стат поправка - увы, похуже.
        1. Dear sofa expert. 22 June 2020 14: 57
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          Thank. 2% is nonsense. 3,1 + stat amendment - alas, worse.

          Moderate inflation (3-4% per year). This is a normal level, which plays the role of a catalyst for economic growth.

          http://www.aup.ru/books/m173/4_4.htm

          But 2% is worse.
    2. Dear sofa expert. 20 June 2020 00: 29
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      Prices in Russia have already risen.
      Interesting in America and Europe as well? Or more?

      Are you only interested in prices, or is the economy in general?
      For price stability can mean deflation (America, Europe, Japan), and deflation is stagnation, which is bad. This is much worse than inflation.
      Here, read for self-education:

      https://spydell.livejournal.com/443704.html
      1. Sergey Latyshev Offline
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 22 June 2020 08: 58
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        Well, deflation does not threaten us yet.
        Putin announced the underdevelopment of the economy. And he never mentioned a price reduction.
        1. Dear sofa expert. 22 June 2020 10: 12
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          You asked the question “into space”:

          Interesting in America and Europe as well? Or more?

          I asked you to meet him.

          Well, deflation does not threaten us yet.

          Well, thank God.

          Putin announced the underdevelopment of the economy. And he never mentioned a price reduction.

          Putin does not regulate prices, but the market.
          1. Sergey Latyshev Offline
            Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 22 June 2020 10: 19
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            Sorry. Took your question as rhetorical.

            In economics, everyone is writing. So do not.
            But at household prices specifically for countries - silence ... i.e. may be interesting.

            The market, the stump is clear, who is arguing.
            1. Dear sofa expert. 22 June 2020 10: 24
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              But at household prices specifically for countries - silence ... i.e. may be interesting.

              Why is it silent, on top of you, "123" answered "in numbers."
              It seems to me, for today's unpredictable time, a very real alignment. We will see.
              И потом, к чему эти ваши все популистские спекуляции о сравнении «несравниваемых» экономик?
              1. Sergey Latyshev Offline
                Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 22 June 2020 13: 00
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                He is well done. And I thanked him even then.
                I talked about the situation as a whole, and here is specifically his private answer.

                And "your all populist speculations about comparing" incomparable "economies?" let them remain on your conscience. Apparently, you just understand everything is politicized, and not as it is.
                1. Dear sofa expert. 22 June 2020 14: 20
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                  you just understand everything is politicized, and not as it is.

                  Ah, here it is ... well, explain then how it is? And then constantly insert as comments some short poisonous remarks somehow frivolously.
                  1. Sergey Latyshev Offline
                    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 22 June 2020 15: 34
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                    I see that you are already distorting to please yourself, beloved. All of you have "poisonous remarks" yes "populist speculations"
                    Well, and then fig something to explain to you?
                    1. Dear sofa expert. 22 June 2020 18: 30
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                      Well, and then fig something to explain to you?

                      Yes, for God's sake.) I did not expect anything else from you.
  3. Dear sofa expert. 20 June 2020 00: 27
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    Статья - полное фуфло. Акции Боинга рухнули и падали до 20 мая. А меньше чем месяц спустя цена уже опять удвоилась, и с небольшими откатами (это нормально) прёт вверх. Аэробус чуть хуже, но тоже на хайпе. Прогнозы на будущее строить рано, но мировой опыт показывает: падения сменяются взлётами. Вечных падений не бывает. Спрос на полёты был, и будет всегда, а спрос диктует предложение.
    1. Observer2014 Offline
      Observer2014 21 June 2020 00: 14
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      The article is complete bullshit. Boeing shares crashed and fell until May 20. And less than a month later, the price has doubled again, and with small pullbacks (this is normal) rushes up.

      good Mlyn, what kind of people you have to communicate with! drinks Yes, all sorts of beats, gates are resting!
      And to be honest, I read you and enjoy! yes All on the plus!
      1. Dear sofa expert. 21 June 2020 01: 00
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        Yes, all sorts of beats, gates are resting!

        Rest, of course. Weekend after all.)
  4. master3 Offline
    master3 (Vitali) 24 June 2020 15: 15
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    The fall of the aircraft industry did not go around Russia

    - But what, was the rise of the aviation industry in Russia?