All is not lost: how Russia can beat Turkey in Libya


Russia and Turkey are long-standing geopolitical opponents who have fought against each other many times. And nowadays, Moscow and Ankara found themselves on opposite sides in two conflicts at once: in Syria and Libya, surprisingly “mirroring” the applied support methods.


If the Kremlin was able to help Damascus in the SAR, then in the case of faraway North Africa, things are not going in the best way. Let’s try to theoretically speculate whether there are any chances of a stronger “click on the nose” of Turkey in Libya.

First of all, we recall that one of the grounds for Turkish military aggression in northern Syria was that Ankara considers President Assad "to have lost legitimacy due to the outbreak of war against his own people." Since 2012, the Syrian President has been denied “legitimacy” by everyone: the UN, the USA, and all their allies. The Turkish Peskov, spokesman for the administration of President Recep Erdogan Ibrahim Kalyn, reiterated last year:

We believe that the Assad regime has lost legitimacy and is now far from deciding the future of Syria.

Ankara also refused to recognize the parliamentary elections in the SAR. In general, the de facto Turks consider their hands untied in relation to the restructuring of Syria due to the alleged illegality of power in Damascus. Under this business, they have already “squeezed out” part of its northern provinces. However, under certain conditions, this can play a cruel joke with them already.

Recall that in Libya, President Erdogan sent troops and militants at the official invitation of the Government of National Accord (PNS). In exchange, its head Faiz Saraj signed a Memorandum on the delimitation of marine zones in the Eastern Mediterranean in favor of Turkey. Thanks to this, Ankara gained control over territories where the energy interests of many regional players are concentrated. This can be considered a great strategic victory for the Turks, since now it is enough for them to ensure the defense of Tripoli from the irregulars and the personal security of Saraj.

Yes, this is Turkey’s victory, but still there remains a certain opportunity to knock out a stool from under it. It concerns the status of the PNS itself. The strength of the Libyan government is only in its official recognition by the UN. But what if its legitimacy is also called into question, and with it the legitimacy of all the international agreements it has signed? In Libya, Turkey crossed the road immediately to many players: Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, and Russia. The PNS army is now conducting active hostilities "against its people," as they would say in the West. In the presence of political of will, in respect of Faiz Saraj and his government, the same measures can be applied that previously against Bashar al-Assad. With a great desire, we can even talk about withdrawing recognition. There were precedents - for example, over one and a half dozen states, even if not the most prominent, announced the withdrawal of recognition of Kosovo.

If the PNS loses its legitimacy and is accused of "genocide of its people," then the situation in Libya could radically change. Instead of the support and hope of official Tripoli, Ankara will turn into a sponsor of terrorists, who in fact it is.

Do not forget about the anti-Turkish coalition created by Egypt, which, in addition to the UAE and France already stated above, also includes Greece. Athens, by the way, the other day announced its readiness to fight with Ankara. Yes, this statement did not concern Libya, but the issue of developing oil shelves in the Mediterranean Sea, but the resistance of a number of countries to the growing appetite of the Turks in the region is in the face. Russia did not join the coalition. Officially. Nevertheless, there can hardly be any doubt that Moscow will remain on the sidelines in the event of a large-scale war in Libya. Egypt, which is likely to play the “first fiddle” in a future conflict, will clearly rely on militarytechnical help from Russia.
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  1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 12 June 2020 14: 31
    -5
    All is not lost: how Russia can beat Turkey in Libya

    - And here are the pipes ... - Today it is time for Russia to think ...- isn’t everything lost for her in Syria ...
    - And what is happening there in Libya today ... - this is all Russia today can only observe and empathize ... - And only ...

    In Libya, Turkey crossed the road immediately to many players: Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, and Russia. The PNS army is now conducting active hostilities "against its people," as they would say in the West.

    - Here, somehow, two "very authoritative" site Israelis have already tried to "enlighten" me ... - True, it was about Egypt ... - About the creation of an Egyptian military base near the dam ... in South Sudan ...
    - But the same keynote may sound in the subject of Libya ...

    Given political will, the same measures can be applied to Faiz Saraj and his government as previously against Bashar al-Assad. With great desire, we can even talk about the withdrawal of recognition.

    - Yes, this would have been done a long time ago, if the "willing" had a "desire" ... - And from this Faiz Saraj, only a wet place would have remained for a long time ... - It's just ridiculous ... - everyone sat and almost For three months we calmly watched how ... how ... how ... Turkey calmly sailed and calmly landed its troops in Libya ...
    - And today all this observation has begun to progress in the form of miserable improvisations with Greece, which seems to be able to restrain Turkey ... - well ...- Hahah ...- and only ...
    - Quite recently, Sarkozy, without asking anyone ... - began to bomb sovereign Libya for nothing ... - And he didn't even wait for a UN decision ... - And then "all the brethren" joined in ... - That's all "political will" ...

    Nevertheless, there can hardly be any doubt that Moscow will remain on the sidelines in the event of a large-scale war in Libya. Egypt, which is likely to play the "first fiddle" in a future war, will clearly rely on military-technical assistance from Russia.

    - But what about the will of Israel ??? - After all, these two "influential authoritative" site Israelis convinced me of this so much ....
    - This is what happens ... - Russia should help Egypt; and should Israel command Egypt ???
    - As for Libya, so far it commands ... Turkey ...
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 13 June 2020 07: 45
      +1
      Quote: gorenina91
      - And here are the pipes ... - Today it is time for Russia to think ...- isn’t everything lost for her in Syria ...
      - And what is happening there in Libya today ... - this is all Russia today can only observe and empathize ... - And only ...

      In fact, these were "recommendations" not for the Kremlin, but for Libya's neighbors. We really don't have much to do there yet.
    2. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
      Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 13 June 2020 09: 34
      -3
      But what does Israel give you peace of mind? Everywhere you see his hand. :))) Israel is quite further from all these Libyan disassemblies, although, of course, there are interests in connection with offshore fields and planned pipelines .. He laughed from the “command” of Israel by Egypt. Which command? There is no war, there are diplomatic relations, trade and tourism, we do not need anything else. Well, it happened that they helped with their means in the Sinai to fight terrorists. But "command" is enchanting stupidity.
  2. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 12 June 2020 18: 36
    -2
    Of course not lost. Only political will is needed. But Putin still cannot answer the Czechs!

    The talker bird is distinguished by a special intelligence and quick wit.
  3. Roarv Offline Roarv
    Roarv (Robert) 13 June 2020 12: 56
    +3
    Our first Erdogan is saved by their ass, neck, and the whole carcass with a high probability from a barbecue in a downed helicopter, then they thank us, with their freaks, then Ukrainians, then Syrians and Libyans, in the literal sense, that is to say, the Turks.
  4. Dear sofa expert. 13 June 2020 23: 42
    +1
    All is not lost: how Russia can beat Turkey in Libya

    Already the name causes some deliberate hopelessness))
    The author, where is Turkey, and who is Russia? The whole world freezes when Putin suddenly falls silent. Enough to scare the world with your homegrown "horror stories")))
  5. Vladimir 1923 Putin (Vladimir Putin) 24 June 2020 18: 43
    0
    The best Turks. Well done, continue. Well done.