Unprofitable over-harvest: Russia is losing leadership in the global grain market


A paradoxical situation has developed in the agro-industrial complex of Russia - due to the actions of the government, Russia may give way to a leadership position in wheat exports. EU competitors were given priority in foreign markets when the industry leadership of the Russian Federation introduced quotas for grain supplies abroad. About it writes the portal "Agroinvestor".


Malicious restrictions


Western analysts, having received information about the over-harvest (almost 130 million tons) of grain in Russia, suggested that up to 33 million tons could be exported “painlessly” this season. Russian industry analysts who opted for much more modest numbers did not agree with these conclusions.

As a result, both forecasts did not come true, since the government introduced a quota of 7 million tons for grain exports abroad.

The introduction of incomprehensible in terms of meaning and benefits restrictions only harms the market and does not benefit the Russian farmer. But an element of nervousness and strong risks is introduced

- says Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the Russian Grain Union.

As the head emphasizes, the actions of the ministry did not lead to the planned effect: a decrease in the price of grain did not happen.

Our own government has presented all the trump cards to strong competitors from the EU. Now they will flood the market, not us. The fate of Russian farmers - to be satisfied with the remnants

- Zlochevsky shrugs his hands.

Russia misses leadership


The introduction of restrictions on the contrary raised the price of products. To date, under the quota, it remains to export no more than 700 thousand tons of grain.

Now, with the onset of the new season, when shipments resume under the new quota, the Russian grain producer will face a number of problems, some of which are man-made.

Here are just a few possible problems.

Firstly, not only in Russia a good harvest is expected, which is why the markets are likely to be crowded. Secondly, prices will be significantly higher than current ones, and thirdly, against the backdrop of crisis phenomena, sales will decline due to sluggish demand caused by the coronavirus and the problems it brought.

As a result, producers lost two ways to compensate for losses due to the devaluation of the ruble: they can neither lower the cost of grain, nor sell it more at the previous price.

Loss of global market share threatens domestic farmers with downtime equipment and equipment, and, as a result, the loss of technological level and sown area. About the voluntary delivery of foreign markets to competitors has been said above.
18 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.
I have an account? Sign in
  1. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 3 June 2020 09: 56
    +6
    Something "the edges do not converge." what
    Arkady Zlochevsky, President of the Grain Union of the Russian Federation, an interested person, he needs to sell grain.

    As the head emphasizes, the actions of the Ministry did not lead to the planned effect: a decrease in the price of grain did not occur.

    And if you remove the restrictions, then the price reduction will happen? I doubt it. no
    They hold the grain, do not want to reduce the price and wait for it to be allowed to sell abroad.

    Firstly, not only in Russia a good harvest is expected, which is why the markets are likely to be crowded. Secondly, prices will be significantly higher than current ones, and thirdly, against the backdrop of crisis phenomena, sales will decline due to sluggish demand caused by the coronavirus and the problems it brought.

    Yes, they expect a good harvest. yes

    “In general, the gross grain harvest in Russia in 2020 may reach 126,3 million tons, which is 5,1 million tons more than last year. At the same time, growth is expected due to wheat, while barley production may be reduced by 0,5 million tons to 20 million tons, corn by 1 million tons to 13,3 million tons. ”

    apk-inform.com

    And hereafter .... Why prices should be significantly higher is unclear. request Is this with a good harvest and export restrictions? Sluggish demand due to coronavirus? Have people stopped eating?

    As a result, producers lost two ways to compensate for losses due to the devaluation of the ruble: they can neither lower the cost of grain, nor sell it more at the previous price.

    Pretty strange conclusion. belay As I understand it, the first way is to reduce the cost of grain. But why they lost it is not clear. Let them reduce their health. The second way is to sell it at the previous price. Here they are right, at the previous price it doesn’t work.

    As a result, we have the scoring of "Wishlist", so to speak, departmental interest. Allow me not to sell grain abroad, we do not want to lower the price.
    Their position, of course, can be understood, but the argument is so-so. no
  2. gorenina91 Online gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 3 June 2020 10: 16
    -1
    Unprofitable over-harvest: Russia is losing leadership in the global grain market

    It's strange ... - Russia is not generally the leading world economic power ... - And it is typical of such people ... - always "to miss the leadership in the world market" ... - First, become a leader; and then "do what you want" (joke) ... - And the leader; that's why he is a leader, that he sets the first violin ... and everyone takes an example from him and everyone obeys him ... -What is the leader of Russia, if ... if ... if for Russia China is a leader, a mentor and a curator; in whom Russia has been for years ... "-that" goes to the subordinates and fulfills all his whims and is ready to continue to perform ...
    - Think of the grain ...- yes, Russia, in everything that is possible and impossible, has ceded world leadership ... - And here ...- they are afraid of some kind of grain ... -just anecdote ...
    - Russia took it out of the blue ... - missed the leadership in the exploration of Space ... - What ... - the weather prevented; or new epidemics; or other world pestilence .. ??? Yes .... - just ... - Russian helmsmen, "Russian industry analysts", Russian "rulers of the economy" and others. Today's masters of the Russian State do everything like that, what, what, what ... as if you didn't have to buy wheat abroad ...
    -So, in real life ... it may be reasonable that:

    Western analysts, having received information about the over-harvest (almost 130 million tons) of grain in Russia, suggested that up to 33 million tons could be exported “painlessly” this season. Russian industry analysts who opted for much more modest numbers did not agree with these conclusions.

    - Maybe it’s right that they will keep the wheat in Russia ...; and then suddenly some kind of "wheat flu" will appear (or suddenly it is in the Russian grain that some "bugs" will be found) ... -What then ???
    Yes, and rumors about the upcoming grain harvest in Russia ...- are also "too exaggerated" ...
    - And Russia, without grain, is simply impossible ...
  3. Ivan Dovgy Offline Ivan Dovgy
    Ivan Dovgy (Ivanushka) 3 June 2020 10: 59
    -1
    Following sugar, wheat was also profiled.

    PS
    Additional materials on the topic:

    https://zen.yandex.ru/media/burckina_new/chto-patrushev-putinu-rasskazal-pro-sev-ozimyh-5d7a6a8d98fe7900ad727a0c
  4. The comment was deleted.
    1. Perfectionist Offline Perfectionist
      Perfectionist 4 June 2020 07: 06
      -1
      Quote: gorenina91
      I will turn out to be the leader ... - Well ... - it's just funny ..

      Yeah.
  5. King3214 Offline King3214
    King3214 (Sergius) 3 June 2020 11: 10
    +5
    At the time of the UN warning - "about a threatening famine of biblical proportions", only a moron will strive for leadership in food sales.
    In place of the Russian Federation, food exports should generally be banned until it becomes clear what the scale of the onset of hunger is.
  6. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 3 June 2020 11: 20
    +1
    having received information about over-harvest (almost 130 million tons)

    Still, an interesting "thing" economy. In 1978, the harvest in Russia was also 127 million tons, but bread - a loaf cost 12-15 kopecks. Now 50 rubles. (Chelyabinsk region). This is normal bread. And now all the talk to sell, and always abroad, otherwise to the farmer "kirdyk". And since people here do not die of hunger, this is already good. And the talk is all about leadership and rating. What about people? Why do I need these super harvests, leadership, ratings? When, in order to buy medicine, I have to save on bread!
    1. assault 2019 Offline assault 2019
      assault 2019 (assault 2019) 6 June 2020 20: 40
      0
      Eat less bread, less medicine!
  7. Roarv Offline Roarv
    Roarv (Robert) 3 June 2020 11: 56
    +1
    Career issues in our government have always been resolved at the expense of farmers ..
    Everyone is well aware that with a grain shortage of either food or feed grain, food prices are inevitable ..... and this is litmus paper - an indicator of the effectiveness of the Cabinet’s short-term economic policy .....
    The main thing is that prices do not go up, but how farmers will come back from the time of Gorbachev, Yeltsin, Putin is not taken into account ....
    Damper - The lost profit between the domestic price and the export price that oilmen receive, no one will pay to the farmers.
    At agrarians
    (agricultural holdings, LLC, KFH, IP, LPH) there is no political party and lobby in the State Duma,
    and the policy of edrisism + one-day parties does not provide for taking into account the interests of agrarians ...
    In general, unpredictable autumn awaits us, both in terms of yield and food prices ....
  8. Dear sofa expert. 3 June 2020 12: 34
    +1
    Russia is losing leadership in the global grain market.

    Some kind of stupid leadership.
    Not grain (see raw materials) needs to be sold, but a product. For example, flour, feed.
    And at the same time to develop their livestock, and not to sell cheap grain abroad, and from there to buy expensive meat.
  9. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 3 June 2020 13: 48
    -2
    Ha. Commentators.
    Maybe someone will also dream about cheap gasoline?

    Salvage does not smell. This is the essence of the article. Get ready to lay out money for more expensive bread.
  10. Alexey Grigoryev (Alexey Grigoriev) 3 June 2020 17: 25
    0
    In short, all the polymers slept through)))
  11. jekasimf Offline jekasimf
    jekasimf (jekasimf) 3 June 2020 18: 21
    +5
    Russia has introduced quotas for grain exports. For the shortage of the eye is coming. So the article is custom. Grain traders lose their loot!
  12. Citizen Mѣshkov (Sergѣi) 3 June 2020 19: 17
    +1
    Such a phrase "unprofitable over-harvest" can only be in today's Russia.
  13. T. Henks Offline T. Henks
    T. Henks (Igor) 3 June 2020 22: 25
    +4
    When there will be nothing to eat in Europe, then it will be possible to talk. And these gurus from the grain, that Abramovich and ... Bad is all that is good for the population. Villas do not buy everything. They really want to inflate grain prices inside Russia. The logic is simple. First, sell abroad for candy wrappers, and then yell that there is no grain and everything is completely gone.
  14. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 3 June 2020 22: 31
    +5
    It’s just that Putin (collective) calculated the situation and came to the conclusion that in the conditions of a recession in the economy, the price of grain will rise sharply. And took action. And to the opinion of Zlochevsky he doesn’t care.
    And in Ukraine, winter crops have been covered. Whether they will be re-sown (this is an additional cost) or will they collect what will come up (with scanty yield), for any - an increase in the cost price. This is already + in favor of Putin's decision. In the USA, it is not clear what is going on with the agricultural sector. The milk is already being drained into the sewer. If anyone has forgotten or did not know, during the Great Depression (with famine, no less than ours), the grain was dumped into rivers / seas or burned. And, in my opinion, the food structure will shift towards cheaper prices. Less delicacies, fresh vegetables and fruits, more bread, meat, pasta. And this is grain again.
    So Putin did the right thing.
    Anyway, if Western ANALYTICS scolded Putin’s decision ...
    "So good boots, you have to take it!" (WITH)
  15. Eh! Bread, Oil, Gold, Diamonds are not amer's derivatives, you can always sell!
  16. Valery Kuzmin Offline Valery Kuzmin
    Valery Kuzmin (Valery Kuzmin) 4 June 2020 23: 26
    +2
    Yields in Russia are good, but this year Russia will need it, we’ll sell the rest, maybe not 7, but 10, the situation will show.
  17. assault 2019 Offline assault 2019
    assault 2019 (assault 2019) 6 June 2020 21: 01
    +1
    By limiting grain exports, the government should by no means “rip off” the peasants!
    Farmers should be able to sell to the state at market prices the entire crop of the past and get working money for the purchase of seeds, fertilizers, machinery, fuel .... for growing a new crop.
    Otherwise, the peasants, in order to avoid losses, will simply reduce the sown area and the government will face a “man-made” food shortage, there will be little grain on the domestic market and it will be much more expensive!