Expert: Kremlin’s stake on Middle East autocrats will not pay off

Attempts by the Russian authorities to assert their influence through the support of Middle Eastern dictators are doomed to failure, political analyst Dmitry Frolovskiy is convinced. His detailed opinion is published by the website of the Washington Institute of the Middle East Institute.

The publication notes that the collapse of the OPEC + agreement and the diplomatic impasse in Syria show the fragility of “Russia's conquests in the Middle East.” Building relationships with authoritarian leaders in the region based on a personalistic approach can be effective for a while, but in the long run, the Kremlin’s strategy will not be able to institutionalize these relations and, therefore, will not be able to protect them from failure.

Moreover, the Kremlin’s underestimation of the region’s instability could play a trick on him.

In accordance with the personalist regime of Russia, the external policy under President Vladimir Putin, she focused on building bridges with autocrats. The Middle East [...] turned out to be easy prey. [...] Known for its pragmatism and anti-Western position, Russia was considered effective and powerful enough to act as a counterweight to the United States, whose foreign policy over the past two decades has caused a comparison with a bull in a china shop. The speed with which the Kremlin entered the Middle East security agenda [...] is truly impressive, but they can also be signs of fragility

- noted in the author's article.

Russia's dependence on relations with authoritarian leaders and its clearly incorrect understanding of the rapidly changing nature of the Middle East can become the Achilles heel here, the expert believes. Although resembling authoritarian governments in the region gives the Kremlin some advantage, it is still an unpopular external force, with memories of the wars in Afghanistan and Chechnya.

The author believes that the Russian leadership treats the Arab countries as well as its own population, in other words, as something inappropriate for democracy. However, more and more ordinary Arabs can begin to perceive the Russian Federation as an external stronghold of authoritarianism in the region and consider it responsible for supporting autocratic and corrupt leaders.

Yes, the Kremlin’s approach can still bring geopolitical benefits in the coming years, as evidenced by Russia's growing military presence in Libya.

But the volatile dynamics of the region is able to turn all the games of the Russian Federation in this field into an expensive undertaking that brings costs both domestically and abroad.
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  1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 3 June 2020 06: 57
    Expert: Kremlin’s stake on Middle East autocrats will not pay off
    Today, 06: 30

    - So, and there is no one else to bet on ... - Who else to bet on there ??? - At dervishes, camel drivers, petty crooks and scammers ???
  2. maiman61 Offline maiman61
    maiman61 (Yuri) 3 June 2020 10: 05
    In Syria, the situation does not normalize, because the United States, Turkey invaded Syria and occupied part of the territory of an independent state! If the invaders, the United States and Turkey had withdrawn from Syria, stopped financing and arming terrorists, then everything would have returned to normal instantly!
    1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
      Natan bruk (Nathan Brook) 3 June 2020 19: 39
      To broaden his horizons - the Civil War there began even before the forces of other states appeared in Syria, and there is a simple explanation for this - the Alavite elite rule there, and the Alavites themselves are less than 20% there. All nishtyaki went mainly to them. The dissatisfied were pressed by Mukhabarat, Assad kept tightening the nuts, but this could not last forever. Here the thread broke and then it started ... Well, ISIS, before the heap, had dug in the eastern part of the country by that time. To understand all this “nightingale litter” and Kissel and Sheinin is not enough.
      1. maiman61 Offline maiman61
        maiman61 (Yuri) 8 June 2020 21: 51
        Your narrow horizons are not able to understand that the war in Syria is organized by the USA and Turkey! After all, you need to understand basic things!
        1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
          Natan bruk (Nathan Brook) 9 June 2020 00: 36
          Well, such an “understanding” is only for those whose only source of information is Kisel TV.
          1. maiman61 Offline maiman61
            maiman61 (Yuri) 9 June 2020 07: 53
            You're wrong! I'm not watching a zombie. But elementary things are hard not to understand! The USA is the main enemy of all mankind. If they die, then there will be no limit to joy!
            1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
              Natan bruk (Nathan Brook) 9 June 2020 10: 51
              Well, it’s only in your inflamed brain, not burdened by intelligence.
              1. maiman61 Offline maiman61
                maiman61 (Yuri) 9 June 2020 17: 28
                Do you even know this word - intelligence? Or found and inserted in the dictionary? And you went to hell with the USA.
                1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
                  Natan bruk (Nathan Brook) 9 June 2020 19: 49
                  Well, you, as a schoolboy, are excusable to be stupid. Maybe you grow up, get smarter.
  3. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 4 June 2020 20: 40
    Replace the article in Russia to the United States, absolutely nothing will change. The next mantras - we are the most democratic, we are the most free, we are the most, and so on. It looks like auto-suggestion.
    The United States has poured blood over the entire Middle East and is trying to whitewash itself.
  4. Citizen Mѣshkov (Sergѣi) 5 June 2020 00: 54
    Of course, nothing will work out, since the Kremlin has a very primitive thinking. By influencing autocrats in the Middle East, they want to increase the price of oil. Instead of forgetting about oil, start developing science, production and agriculture. In the conditions of the built system of the "state of the gas station" we should not expect otherwise.