What lies behind the stop of gas transit through Poland

In recent days, Russia has sharply reduced the volume of gas transit to Europe through the territory of Belarus and Poland, and a day ago it completely stopped pumping through the Yamal-Europe pipeline. The contract for the transit of "blue fuel", concluded in the Soviet period, expired on May 16. Warsaw has expressed readiness to continue deliveries through its territory, but according to European rules through an auction system, but Gazprom is in no hurry to do so.

What can be evidenced by a change in the approaches of the domestic monopolist to cooperation with Belarusian and Polish partners?

We are talking about the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, which was commissioned back in 1999. Its capacity is 33 billion cubic meters per year. The section passing through the territory of Poland was built with Soviet money, half of the pipeline’s shares were transferred to Warsaw. Because of this, transit payments were not high, which over the following years caused displeasure of the Polish leadership, which itself threatened to refuse to purchase Russian gas. As an alternative, LNG was chosen, for the supply of which the country entered into long-term contracts with the United States and Great Britain.

And Warsaw has achieved what it wants, but Gazprom is in no hurry to switch to European rules of work. Reservation of the pipe in the Polish section is decreasing day by day: last Saturday it amounted to 33% of its capacity, on Sunday - 10%, and a day ago - and even 3,8%. What can this talk about?

At first, there is a clear overabundance of gas transmission capacities. The consumption of hydrocarbons throughout the world and in Europe, in particular, has fallen sharply. In previous volumes, “blue fuel” is not needed now. Gazprom is projected to decline in exports from 200 billion cubic meters to 165 billion this year. At the same time, the top management of the corporation managed to sign a transit agreement with Ukraine for the supply of 65 billion cubic meters of gas in such a way that it would have to pay even if it did not choose these volumes.

That is, in order not to fall for money, the monopolist will have to use the Ukrainian GTS in accordance with the terms of the agreement with Kiev. In addition, Germany took care of its energy security by removing the Nord Stream from the scope of the EU Third Energy Directive for the next 20 years. In addition, the Kremlin promises to complete the construction of Nord Stream-2 at any cost; the second line of the Turkish Stream is approaching. In this situation, the Polish direction begins to play the role of a “balancing route”.

Secondly, the actual refusal of transit and the leisurely move to the auction system can be considered an element of Moscow’s pressure on Warsaw. Recall that this Polish leadership is most actively opposed to the construction of Nord Stream-2, and from its supply the Opal branch capacity of the Nord Stream-50 branch is limited to 1%.

Thirdly, if desired, it is possible to discern some pressure on Minsk. President Lukashenko is in no hurry to fulfill the obligations of integration within the Union State. Moreover, Alexander Grigoryevich defiantly develops his own missile program, choosing faraway China and Ukraine openly hostile to Russia as partners, which we will discuss in detail told earlier. Regular presidential elections are due to take place in Belarus this summer, and the possibility of stopping transit can be regarded as “greetings” from the Kremlin. The Belarusian “daughter” of our monopolist is the largest taxpayer and employer in a union country.

Finally, a decrease in supply volumes may force Europeans to actively use previously accumulated reserves in their underground gas storage facilities. In the future, this may lead to an increase in demand, but this will require considerable time.
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  1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 27 May 2020 12: 38
    And they openly wrote to VO that Gazprom had reserved about 70% of the Polish pipe until September.
    And that means I’m ready to pay. Just secretly, as agreed.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 27 May 2020 12: 56
      As booked, and "booked" if necessary. smile
      1. boriz Offline boriz
        boriz (boriz) 27 May 2020 22: 55
        Is such a procedure provided for in the third energy package or is it your imagination?
    2. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 27 May 2020 23: 20
      Why secretly? There was an auction, 80% of capacity was reserved for the 3rd quarter. Accordingly, they have either paid, or will pay in the near future, in any case, before July 1.
      1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 30 May 2020 11: 19
        So nowhere about paying a word ... only about the reservation ...
        Wait, maybe they will announce victory over the Poles of the 1st?
  2. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 27 May 2020 13: 52
    After stopping gas transit through Yamal-Europe, the spot price for gas in Europe soared by a third.

  3. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 27 May 2020 23: 08
    Firstly, there is a clear overabundance of gas transmission capacities.

    You might think that these pipes were laid last year and solely for the current year. They have fulfilled their mission a long time ago and will fulfill it more than once.
    Transit capacities for the 3rd quarter are 80% booked, which is understandable: now gas is not needed in Europe, and demand will appear closer to winter.
    The transit capacity of this pipeline is 24 billion cubic meters. m, not 33.
    33 billion is the input power. The difference is 9 billion cubic meters. m was planned for the needs of the Polish economy. At that time, none of the lords planned to ruin Polish production.
    And the output power of the pipe is 24 billion cubic meters. m, it is she who determines the transit opportunities.
    As for Lukashenko, he predetermined his fate with redneck in the negotiations at the end of last year and his victory in the elections is very doubtful. In the absence of support of the Russian Federation. And he lost her. Will retire, children - on collective farm chairmen ...
    1. Vasily Klimenko Offline Vasily Klimenko
      Vasily Klimenko (Vasily Klimenko) 28 May 2020 03: 19
      Dreams, dreams, where your sweetness, dreams are gone, muck remains.

      How many our Jews filmed Lukashenka, and he is more alive than all the living !!! I liked Luzhkov, the deceased, when it was necessary for Baturina, his wife, to provide her construction with land, said: "We will not allow redneck," meaning the owners of the land, who, naturally, wanted more for the land, but when Baturina on this land built a house, and sold it as at an auction at a market price, it was not a grudge, but the benefit of the Luzhkovs, a business.
      But when we forget that the pipe and natural deposits of gas, oil, it is one, the links of one chain turn into big losses, both for the oligarchs and for the Russian budget, but we have rednecks solving the issue and felt boots, which have one crinkle and that between the buttocks.
  4. Victor Yakushev Offline Victor Yakushev
    Victor Yakushev (Victor Yakushev) 28 May 2020 14: 09
    Also, have a snack with Belarus, who will stay ...