Turkish Stream stops: experts on how Gazprom ruins Russia


Deliveries of Russian “blue fuel” to Turkey decreased by more than 14 times. Such data are provided by the Federal Customs Service. Moreover, the decline in consumption continues. The editors of the Bulgarian newspaper Expert (Sofia) write about the rapidly deteriorating prospects of Turkish Stream.


Course on a complete rejection of fuel from the Russian Federation?


According to the authors of the study, Ankara has recently preferred to import liquefied fuel, which is much cheaper than Gazprom raw materials. Thus, over the half-empty Turkish Stream pipeline, which was recently opened and cost Russia 7 billion euros, there is a danger of a complete stop of pumping: it loses its “strength” exponentially.

The Black Sea “direction” of Russian concern’s exports has seriously sank. Deliveries for state-owned Botas and private Turkish operators fell to an insignificant 200 million cubic meters. For example, over the same period last year, the volume of gas pumped through two main pipelines to Turkey amounted to at least one and a half billion cubic meters. And in 2018, Ankara bought almost 3 billion cubic meters per month.

According to experts, in the ranking of important customers of Gazprom, Turkey fell from second place to a dozen positions down. Now it consumes almost as much as Armenia or Lithuania.

Gazprom ruins Russia


In March of this year, a kind of anti-record was recorded on supplies of “blue fuel” to Turkey: the transport capacities of the Russian company were only 11% loaded. But Ankara LNG imports showed a 45% increase.

According to experts, search political the background in such a sharp change in Turkey's energy import priorities is not worth it. It's all about the price. Even after a decrease in cost, Russian fuel is estimated by the seller at 103 dollars (cost limit is 90 dollars).

At this very time, the Dutch spot exchange offers customers gas deals at $ 53 per cubic meter. In fact, Russian production is now operating beyond efficiency and further price reductions will only lead to serious consequences for the Russian budget, as the country's main exporter is already operating at a loss.

As a result, experts come to the conclusion that this state of affairs will not only bury Turkish Stream, but also make the entire Black Sea export direction of Gazprom absolutely unprofitable.
  • Photos used: www.gazprom.com
23 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.
I have an account? Sign in
  1. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 24 May 2020 12: 14
    +4
    On the one hand, we read that LNG is expensive. The cost of only liquefaction and vice versa is from 2 to 4 dollars for 1 million BTUs. Different sources, different countries. $ 2 already makes more than $ 60, plus transportation of $ 1 plus the cost of gas itself (currently $ 1,75. This makes a minimum of $ 150 per thousand cubic meters. Therefore, there were reports that large companies paid the cost of liquefaction and refused from LNG supplies. There are also many reports that the United States has stopped investment projects in the construction of LNG plants. LNG plants in Australia are shutting down. And so on and so forth.

    Most likely, we are now seeing an excess of LNG, which large European companies have abandoned. Therefore, they are ready to sell it at any price. Or for free. Network gas (GazProm) is tied to an oil basket and therefore highly dependent on fluctuations in oil prices. Oil is growing and Gazprom can increase the cost of gas. The principle of "download or pay" is still fundamentally no one has canceled.

    There is a double edged sword. You can not conclude long-term contracts and depend entirely on spot prices. They change every day, if not every hour. Or, continue contracts with Gazprom for gas pipelines. No matter what they say, for 40 years, Gazprom has never violated the agreed deliveries. By switching to spot prices, everyone (both consumers and producers) will be in the hands of speculators from the exchange.
    Decide Europe.
    1. Living on CIA handouts (Living on CIA handouts) 25 May 2020 03: 31
      -3
      This is the very future dominant factor that will help to throw out the gangster group of the Russian Federation LLC from the occupied territory of the USSR.
  2. lieutenant Offline lieutenant
    lieutenant (Vladimir) 24 May 2020 14: 31
    +3
    Guard! Chef, everything is gone ......
  3. antibi0tikk Offline antibi0tikk
    antibi0tikk (Sergei) 24 May 2020 14: 50
    +5
    Well yes! Will there be a lot of this gas for $ 53?
    This is an example from life: I buy, for example, potatoes in the nearest store for 40 rubles. per kilo, but in the fall hard workers go to apartments and sell a bag of the same potato for 25 rubles. per kilo with home delivery. Of course, I will not refuse to save a bit. But when this potato is over, I will again go to the same nearest store for potatoes of 40 rubles each.
    This slonchukha is simplified, but the situation with gas is about the same. Only surely something else is written in the contracts about obligations, fines and compensations. So, we wait and see what happens next.
  4. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 24 May 2020 15: 16
    +4
    How much can brains be composted with this "spot"? If the “shuttles” sale happens once a year, this is not a reason to close the supermarket due to price differences.
    Everyone understands frank stupidity, well, almost everyone, but with the tenacity of woodpeckers they continue to repeat the same thing. Apparently, such a point of view is beneficial for someone and they do not spare money for its implementation.
  5. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
    Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 24 May 2020 18: 01
    -3
    I do not really follow, but in general, something from the latest projects works fine, makes a profit and has a future? Can someone explain understanding?
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 24 May 2020 18: 50
      +8
      I'm not very understanding, but ....
      Which project can be considered normally working? The Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline was considered a failure. There were sanctions, bans, and more. And now all of Europe has struggled so that pumping along it does not stop. Speculative prices on hubs are very profitable and pleasant. For now. But large projects are designed for decades. No one expects SP-2 or the Power of Siberia to pay off in the next quarterly report. Europe needs gas. Short-term fluctuations do not change anything in the long run. There is gas at different prices. How much to pay is up to the buyer. And to provide goods is up to the manufacturer.
      From this point of view (we return to Ukraine) the conclusion of a transit agreement was absolutely unnecessary. From the same point of view (the closure of nuclear power plants in Europe, the closure of coal and fuel oil thermal power plants, the transition to green energy) in the future, all gas pipelines are profitable. It’s just that profitability will not come tomorrow, but in 10-15 years. A simple example. Now Russia is sitting on the "hydrocarbon needle" (for me the term is incorrect, but generally accepted). And who provides this very "needle"? Those gas and oil pipelines that were built long ago. And which then everyone considered unprofitable.
      Summary. All projects are cost-effective and have a long-term perspective. 10-15 years. Maybe 20. Children and grandchildren will still use it.
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 24 May 2020 20: 30
        0
        good Perhaps you can also add that this is about 1,8 million people working in mining, even more in transportation, processing and so on, for example, Almaz-Antey and Malachite make equipment for Sakhalin-2.
        1. Bakht Offline Bakht
          Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 24 May 2020 21: 17
          +2
          Large projects are needed precisely during the crisis. And only the state can provide them. No large company or oligarchs will do this. That is why the role of the state becomes more visible, precisely during the crisis. No matter how we scold the state, only it makes it possible to preserve the life and security of people.
          As smart people said -

          The state does not exist to make us happy. It exists so that we do not slide into savagery.
  6. Dear sofa expert. 24 May 2020 21: 26
    +1
    Bulgaria, Northern Macedonia and Greece have already begun to receive gas from Russia through the Turkish Stream gas pipeline through the new Strandzha 2 entry point. If interest increases, it will be possible to think about returning to the South Stream project.
  7. ist venn Offline ist venn
    ist venn (ist venn) 24 May 2020 22: 25
    -5
    It is good that insight comes.
    1. Nick Offline Nick
      Nick (Nikolai) 26 May 2020 13: 18
      0
      Quote: ist venn
      It is good that insight comes.

      The author soon got an eclipse. The project, which is designed for many decades, he considers in the interval of a couple of months. What can I say about such an author, only what Lavrov once said about his colleagues ... wink
  8. ist venn Offline ist venn
    ist venn (ist venn) 24 May 2020 22: 27
    -3
    How much folk money was thrown to the bottom of the sea? Now neither gas nor oil will be needed by anyone. Wow, fun!
    1. colyanpirogov Offline colyanpirogov
      colyanpirogov (Nikolai Pirogov) 25 May 2020 14: 02
      0
      You can see right away when the comments are made by "not very distant people" who don’t even want to think a bit ...!
    2. Nick Offline Nick
      Nick (Nikolai) 26 May 2020 13: 20
      -1
      Quote: ist venn
      How much folk money was thrown to the bottom of the sea? Now neither gas nor oil will be needed by anyone. Wow, fun!

      Have you already moved to an electric car with solar panels, do you heat the dwelling with wood, and cook cabbage soup at the stake? Then congratulations.
  9. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 25 May 2020 08: 13
    +3
    Looking at the city at night, you should not draw conclusions about his daily life. It's not morning yet.
  10. aleksandrmakedo Offline aleksandrmakedo
    aleksandrmakedo (Dubovitsky Victor Kuzmich) 25 May 2020 09: 54
    -2
    Quote: Living on CIA handouts
    This is the very future dominant factor that will help to throw out the gangster group of the Russian Federation LLC from the occupied territory of the USSR.

    And you start earning, and not wait for a handout. More of this shit, and the more invented, the more dough you stockpile. Read KU RF, and violate the article more seriously, with periods of 10-20 years. Declare yourself a political dissident. You see, by the end of your life you will get an apartment in Manhattan.
  11. aleksandrmakedo Offline aleksandrmakedo
    aleksandrmakedo (Dubovitsky Victor Kuzmich) 25 May 2020 09: 56
    -1
    Quote: ist venn
    How much folk money was thrown to the bottom of the sea? Now neither gas nor oil will be needed by anyone. Wow, fun!

    The beauty. And do not need to eat. For what? There is a lot of crap on the Internet, what is it to produce by nature?
  12. aleksandrmakedo Offline aleksandrmakedo
    aleksandrmakedo (Dubovitsky Victor Kuzmich) 25 May 2020 10: 06
    -1
    Quote: Bakht
    I'm not very understanding, but ....
    Which project can be considered normally working? The Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline was considered a failure. There were sanctions, bans, and more. And now all of Europe has struggled so that pumping along it does not stop. Speculative prices on hubs are very profitable and pleasant. For now. But large projects are designed for decades. No one expects SP-2 or the Power of Siberia to pay off in the next quarterly report. Europe needs gas. Short-term fluctuations do not change anything in the long run. There is gas at different prices. How much to pay is up to the buyer. And to provide goods is up to the manufacturer.
    From this point of view (we return to Ukraine) the conclusion of a transit agreement was absolutely unnecessary. From the same point of view (the closure of nuclear power plants in Europe, the closure of coal and fuel oil thermal power plants, the transition to green energy) in the future, all gas pipelines are profitable. It’s just that profitability will not come tomorrow, but in 10-15 years. A simple example. Now Russia is sitting on the "hydrocarbon needle" (for me the term is incorrect, but generally accepted). And who provides this very "needle"? Those gas and oil pipelines that were built long ago. And which then everyone considered unprofitable.
    Summary. All projects are cost-effective and have a long-term perspective. 10-15 years. Maybe 20. Children and grandchildren will still use it.

    I think things will change much faster. Globalization has given a good blow to the entire Western world. The transfer of black production to the East, South-East, left Europe, the United States without raw materials and materials. China will become super-rich on this globalization very quickly, twisting its arms and turning the heads of its rivals. Trump dragged these industries back to the United States. Europe will start up and run to do the same. Changing the energy strategy, switching to green, will turn production, which is rapidly returning to the framework depending on the time of day and the presence of wind and the sun. Traditional sources, generating green, EXTRAORDINARY, which cannot be turned off (especially nuclear generation) at the peak of the output, dramatically increases costs, reduces profitability, and hence tariffs. The mechanism of deception with this superfashionable idea is well revealed by Bezgin at: https://bezgin.su
  13. Valery Kolesov Offline Valery Kolesov
    Valery Kolesov (Valery Kolesov) 25 May 2020 10: 46
    +3
    And where were our glorious experts? Nevertheless, they said that liquefied gas was more expensive than piped gas.
    1. Nick Offline Nick
      Nick (Nikolai) 26 May 2020 19: 02
      +1
      Quote: Valery Kolesov
      And where were our glorious experts? Nevertheless, they said that liquefied gas was more expensive than piped gas.

      I do not consider myself an expert, but having an economic education and work experience, I can explain that the price of production or cost is one thing, and the market price is another. The cost of pipeline gas, ceteris paribus, is a priori lower than the cost of LNG, as another technological operation is added to produce LNG, namely gas liquefaction. And this liquefaction operation also costs money. Another thing is market prices, set taking into account supply and demand. If demand is small, the volume of supply is high, then the market price may fall even below cost. In addition, taxes, fines, etc., affect the price of gas. etc. For example, in the USA it is forbidden to burn associated gas, oil companies have to liquefy it and sell it at any price, otherwise it will be necessary to stop oil production. And if the sale of produced oil pays for all expenses, including the liquefaction of associated gas and its sale for a pittance, then perhaps, with low demand for gas, the cost of LNG will not exceed the cost of its delivery to the consumer. What exactly is happening in the gas market today.
  14. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 25 May 2020 10: 50
    -1
    - Read the local comments ... about ...
    - Well .., well ... - it's just a devil to amuse ... - And how many and what abundance of pluses ... - it remains only to cross ... ... - And who carries such nonsense ??? - Yes, all the same ...
    - Well, it’s necessary to make such a thing ... - In a word ...- they say, we survived the war ...- and we will survive it ... - That's nice ...- tram-pam-pam ...
    - Personally, I wrote about this very specifically ... - about the failed gas pipeline business ... and long-term, age-old gas scams with China and the EU ... - Colossally disastrous, cosmically unprofitable, catastrophically criminal ...
    - And today, the venerable public declares that, well ...- it happens, it didn’t work out ...- well .... maybe ... maybe ... maybe ... - then somehow it all grows together. .. - they say a new generation will grow up, maybe it will be smarter than the previous one and come up with something ... and somehow "adapt" everything ...
    - And what can it come up with ??? - How to pay off billions (or even trillions) debts of your unreasonable dads and grandfathers ... -How is that ??? - And what to do with enslaving long-term contracts ???
    - Yes, here they write that it can easily be done ... - went out, they say, someone there to the "spot market" ... - traded trochies ... - got something ... - well .. . and that's enough for now ... - Is that ... - the height of illiteracy and ignorance ... or - just a joke ???
    -There's another mention in vain of the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline ...- they say, it was also built with public money - and now it is still being used ... - No, but ... ? - Today what - on the circus arena clowns ... hurry to see ... -Hahah ...
    - In a word; or in a nutshell; or shorter:
    - It is worth turning to today's contemporaries; and even worse ... - to tomorrow's generation ... - they say, they didn't live well ... - and there is no need to get used to and dream about it ... - Forgive, they say, we, unreasonable - did not know what we were doing - the demon beguiled ... - You somehow get out of this need yourself and pay off agro-huge debts, but get out of those enslaving contracts ... that we left for you and your children ... - That's just this ... - and there is nothing more to add ...
  15. Nick Offline Nick
    Nick (Nikolai) 26 May 2020 13: 11
    +1
    The article is intended for the mentally disabled. The Turkish stream was created not only and not so much to supply Turkey, but to diversify the routes of gas delivery to the European Union, bypassing the troubled transit republics. In addition, LNG on the spot market is now being sold below cost due to low demand for it in the world. Either way, the pandemic will go away, winters will get colder, demand will increase and prices will rise. The pipe was built for decades, not one season.