What will the United States face when it unleashes a war with Russia and China


World economy more and more slipping into a global crisis, which tend to end in a big war. In a unipolar world, the United States independently determined with whom, where and how to fight, confidently achieving "strategic results." But now a lot has begun to change.


RAND Corporation, by order of the U.S. Air Force, tried to look into the future until 2030. More than a hundred of her best analysts published a report entitled “Looking Into a Crystal Ball. A holistic assessment of the future war ”, the conclusions of which for the“ hegemon ”are disappointing.

Military experts presented what the new big war with US participation would look like, who would be potential adversaries and how it could happen. They took into account numerous factors: from the state of the economy and the military-industrial complex to climate change and overpopulation. Here are the key points from this interesting review.

opponents


The main candidates for war with the United States have long been known: China, Russia, Iran and the DPRK. Everything is clear with the Russian Federation: we are a long-standing geopolitical rival of the United States with an impressive nuclear arsenal. The confrontation with the Americans will intensify, according to analysts, due to the melting of the polar ice and the clearing of the Northern Sea Route, where the interests of Moscow, Washington and Beijing will clash.

But nevertheless, China, the second world economy, poses a great danger to the United States. President Trump is persistently trying to impose a bargain on the Chinese that is unprofitable for them, which they painfully perceive against the backdrop of a recession due to general quarantine. The "Accountability Act for COVID-19" has been submitted to the US Senate, on the basis of which, in the long term, Beijing's assets may be confiscated and financial obligations to it be refused.

The main points of a possible military conflict are Taiwan, which exists under an American military umbrella, and Hong Kong, where the British have a strong position.

Allies


The United States loves to act in the wrong hands or in coalition with other countries. However protectionist policy President Donald Trump began pushing Washington's traditional partners. RAND analysts concluded that in the future, the degree of participation of "large Western economies" in US military projects will be reduced. For this reason, Americans will have to use much less powerful satellite countries of Russia and China as a “proxy”.

Military power


The United States remains the militarily strongest power in the world. However, their predominance in conventional weapons and advanced technologies is constantly declining. RAND experts point out that the American army today is only part of what happened during the Cold War. To return to its former position, it is necessary to at least double the funding of the Pentagon. At the same time, competitors are actively building up their military potential:

The Chinese and (to a lesser extent) Russian armies are becoming more skilled as both continue to modernize and professionalize. Especially in the case of China, these military improvements are likely to continue, narrowing the quality gap between the People’s Liberation Army and the US armed forces.

Other potential US opponents of the “second level”, in particular, the DPRK and Iran, yielding in conventional weapons, were given the opportunity to give an asymmetric response in the form of weapons of mass destruction and cyber attacks.

conclusions


RAND analysts concluded that Washington has two options for further action.

First: double investment in the military-industrial complex, means of automation and combat operations at a distance, artificial intelligence and other advanced military Technology, sharply increase the number of air forces.

Second: “Break with the past and become much more selective as to where, when and why he uses his military forces.”
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  1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 17 May 2020 12: 14
    +1
    Some left analytics, IMHO.

    So far, we are helping the United States with all our efforts to follow the first option.
    After conversations between the GDP and Trump, our "cartoons" effectively help to knock out money for the military-industrial complex from Congress and allies.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 17 May 2020 12: 33
      -6
      Quote: Sergey Latyshev
      Some left analytics, IMHO.

      Well, yes, we know better than RANDU. wink
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. Zradogon Offline Zradogon
      Zradogon (Zradogon) 18 May 2020 00: 37
      +4
      If the dollar collapses, and it cannot fail to collapse in the event of a global conflict, the first option will immediately be covered with a copper basin. Moreover, this time none of the respectable NATO members will enter the United States, and it is ridiculous to take the post-Soviet sixes seriously.
      1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 18 May 2020 07: 46
        0
        A short dollar fall rate is on the internet ....
      2. Syoma_67 Offline Syoma_67
        Syoma_67 (Semyon) 25 May 2020 20: 30
        -1
        ... but he cannot fail.

        - I have heard this for about 30 years, if not more, since the days of the USSR. Already there is no Union and much has changed in the world, and you all believe in fairy tales.
  2. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
    Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 17 May 2020 12: 42
    +2
    What is the article about?
  3. Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 17 May 2020 12: 49
    +1
    Analysts do not take into account that always something can go wrong or not as we would like. And, as a rule, those who are considered second can just throw out some unpleasant surprise.
    The first option for amers, in my opinion, is much more acceptable than the first.
  4. The comment was deleted.
  5. Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 17 May 2020 12: 53
    +2
    Quote: Sergey Latyshev
    Some left analytics, IMHO.

    So far, we are helping the United States with all our efforts to follow the first option.
    After conversations between the GDP and Trump, our "cartoons" effectively help to knock out money for the military-industrial complex from Congress and allies.

    In my opinion, you are not quite right for the reason that the American military is already constantly asking for money. And cartoons are simply an additional reason to ask for even more money. But it would be naive to think that all the money will go as intended, however, as elsewhere!
    1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
      Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 17 May 2020 12: 57
      -3
      It's true. But now there is more reason and reason to ask for even more money! And receive. And develop.

      We used to write: Aircraft carriers are fun, planes become obsolete, tanks are not being modernized, missiles from the Reagan era, Europe is not invested at all, the combat efficiency of equipment is 20-30%.

      Now they don’t write ....
      1. Zradogon Offline Zradogon
        Zradogon (Zradogon) 18 May 2020 00: 42
        +4
        What is the use of writing about what does not change? The effectiveness of the American military-industrial complex is deplorable; huge cuts in money; bureaucracy as in a stagnant USSR. It is impossible to quickly mobilize the military-industrial complex for effective development in free-market conditions; there simply will not be enough time for this.
        1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
          Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 18 May 2020 07: 50
          -2
          You repeat the TV ...
          In the meantime, with an inefficient military-industrial complex, they build 100 F-35s per year, several significant ships per year, etc.
      2. shinobi Offline shinobi
        shinobi (Yuri) 18 May 2020 07: 49
        +3
        Not interesting, they don’t write. What to write about if they cannot even repeat what they had in the 70s-80s? 70% of the military budget goes to the maintenance of the bureaucratic apparatus and unnecessary bases to anyone. All the loudly announced new items during the verification turned out to be far from the declared, and even outright deceit. Indeed, where are we, Sivolapim, to the “most powerful economy” with a 27-millionth foreign debt. In one they are right, war is inevitable and they have already lost it.
  6. Bulanov Online Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 17 May 2020 13: 32
    +2
    All US allies are much easier to reset than the States themselves, if they are knocked out in dashes, in turn. And left alone, and the States change their minds to behave belligerently.
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 17 May 2020 18: 48
      +5
      Quote: Bulanov
      All US allies are much easier to reset than the States themselves

      States reset to zero is easy. The lack of a unified energy system, the underdevelopment of railway transport, military logistics, left to the mercy of civilians.
      Pairs of conventional rockets on the MasterCard and Visa servers will make all Americans poor, even if you are formally a billionaire.
    2. Bitter Offline Bitter
      Bitter (Gleb) 17 May 2020 22: 06
      +2
      All allies ... easier to reset than the States themselves, if they are knocked out in dashes, in turn.

      The problem is that we / they, unfortunately, are not in the dash, so after the first case, all the arrows in the dash will be, ay-ay-ay, how embarrassing.
      Russia is better at resetting its allies; one does not even need to go to the shooting range.
      1. shinobi Offline shinobi
        shinobi (Yuri) 18 May 2020 07: 55
        0
        Russia has always had only three allies: the Army, Navy and Air Force. And the so-called "allies" are parasites and adherents. As soon as the owner got a hold of it, they ran away like rats.
        1. Bitter Offline Bitter
          Bitter (Gleb) 18 May 2020 09: 30
          +3
          Russia has always had only three allies: the Army, Navy and Air Force.

          Only now, until the fried rooster pokes, his "fathers" at the same time forget about the Russian people. Thanks to the nuclear trophy legacy from the USSR, for a long time Russia is afraid of nothing and nobody needs. Unless its advanced politicians.

          As soon as the owner got a hold of it, they ran away like rats.

          Yes, the "owner" did not have ailments, he squandered and found other "friends" for the money.
        2. kot711 Offline kot711
          kot711 (vov) 18 May 2020 11: 33
          +2
          Russia has always had only three allies: the Army, Navy and Air Force.

          Yeah ... are you sure that the Russian Federation will take the side of China? Where are the kids and families of "our elite"? They are, in fact, hostages of the united West. So don’t say gop.
      2. Egor 7b7 Offline Egor 7b7
        Egor 7b7 18 May 2020 19: 43
        +1
        Russia has three allies, the Navy, Army and VKS. None of these allies are nullified; on the contrary, they are developing quite quickly.
  7. The comment was deleted.
  8. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 18 May 2020 09: 01
    +2
    Americans like to play such scenarios. And if only the military. And then there are "experts" only on computer games.
  9. Americans will not calm down until they get in the teeth. For example, in 1975, the Vietnamese, with the help of Russia, cleaned Uncle Sam's snout, and until the mid-80s they sat quietly like mice!
    PS Rand does not indicate how many millions or billions of people will be destroyed in the event of a conflict with Russia!
  10. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 19 May 2020 06: 14
    +1
    What will the United States face when it unleashes a war with Russia and China

    - Yes, the Americans will never conduct military operations against Russia + China ... - this is absolutely unrealistic ...
    - But to provoke a Russia-China military conflict ... - this is quite desirable and real for them ...
    - But while Russia pleases in everything and sags under China, then it is simply unprofitable for China itself to get involved in some kind of military conflict in relation to Russia ... - Why does China need such a troublesome business ... - after all, he already gets everything from Russia, whatever he wishes ... - So far all "friendship", "cooperation" and other "fraternal relations" between Russia and China rest on this ... - How long such "friendship" is enough ... - time will tell ... ; but Americans do not seem to lose "hope" ...
    1. Zenon Zenon Offline Zenon Zenon
      Zenon Zenon (Zeno Zeno) 19 May 2020 18: 14
      0
      Everything is as usual, the commentator came out of the shadow and:

  11. Igorzxc Offline Igorzxc
    Igorzxc (igorzxc) 27 May 2020 03: 11
    +1
    But why should the US fight with Russia?
    Russian thieves in power themselves will give everything with squeals of joy.
    And if the US says that it can freeze their stolen property in the West, then they will run to surrender in front of their own screech!
    1. kartalovkolya Offline kartalovkolya
      kartalovkolya 28 May 2020 12: 55
      0
      That is why these jingoistic patriots squeal and lament the changes that are being proposed for introduction into our Constitution. Vote and see how this "pack" will rush to its owners, without even waiting for its "philosophical ship" !!! HOWEVER, it will cost less ...