One step away from sanctions: how Gazprom will solve the Nord Stream-2 problem


Having completed his three-month odyssey, the Academician Chersky stands in a German port on the island of Rügen, where the Fortuna construction and assembly barge was previously seen. There is also the logistics terminal of the Nord Stream-2 project, where large diameter pipes are currently being delivered. Obviously, preparations are under way for the completion of the remaining part of the underwater gas pipeline.


In parallel with this, overseas in the USA, according to the publication of Atlantic Council, are preparing to impose new sanctions against Nord Stream-2 if the pipeline is put into operation. What options will Gazprom face then?

It is now customary to draw parallels between Nord Stream 2 and the events of half a century ago, when the USSR pulled the first gas pipeline to Europe through Ukraine. Washington then also severely pressed in all directions, demanding that Europeans buy American coal. Today it is LNG, but the tasks and methods for solving them have remained the same.

First, Denmark’s paperwork was stretched out over the years, then Brussels adopted amendments to the Third EU Energy Package, which left the gas pipeline half empty. Berlin was able to throw an exception to this rule, but it was necessary to have time to complete the pipe before May 2020. In December 2019, the United States imposed sanctions on Nord Stream 2 contractors, who immediately abandoned it, breaking all deadlines. The Federal Grid Agency of Germany rejected a new application by the project operator to withdraw the gas pipeline from the scope of the directive. This means that one of the two pipelines runs the risk of remaining empty, and the payback period of the investment is at least doubled.

Now, Gazprom, which does not have the relevant experience, will have to independently lay the offshore part, and then face the possibility of falling under new US sanctions, as stated by US Senator Ted Cruz. The problem is that it is not yet clear exactly where to expect the trouble, which was rightly pointed out in the relevant committee of the Russian State Duma:

It is unclear whether they will be against the companies that own this pipelayer, or against Gazprom and the five leading oil and gas companies in the world. Or maybe against the German government, which buys gas?


Already, experts name several options that Gazprom can use to still push through its project.

At first, it makes sense to go to court, arguing that applying the Third Energy Package to offshore gas pipelines does not make sense, since there is no other pipeline or LNG terminal 12 nautical miles from the German coast. Some time ago, this worked for the Opal branch, but later Warsaw intervened. In this case, the European “swing of justice” will swing from side to side, and Nord Stream-2 will really turn into a backup gas pipeline for the EU, which will be loaded to the maximum as necessary, for example, in cold winter, or left half empty.

Secondly, the monopolist may try to circumvent the directive by agreeing with consumers to move the gas delivery point from Austria to Russian territory or to the sea 12 miles from the German coast. Not the fact that everyone will be ready to meet the company.

Thirdly, Gazprom can simply fulfill the requirements of European standards: give control of the offshore part of the pipeline to another operator, liberalize the gas market, giving access to export to NOVATEK and Rosneft, which we told earlier.

Finally, a compromise may be putting up 50% of the Nord Stream-2 free capacities for auction, where the state corporation itself can take advantage of them.
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  1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 16 May 2020 11: 08
    -2
    In fact, all this should be calculated in advance. For the failure of the contract - forfeits, - for the sudden rules - the courts.
    The Big Players, in the "terrible" West, that we have, are regularly suing.
    1. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
      rotkiv04 (Victor) 16 May 2020 11: 56
      -1
      So in the Kremlin, strategists have already calculated everything.
  2. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 16 May 2020 12: 16
    +4
    Now, Gazprom, which does not have the relevant experience, will have to independently lay the offshore part, and then face the possibility of falling under new US sanctions, as stated by US Senator Ted Cruz. The problem is that it is not yet clear exactly where to expect the trouble, which was rightly pointed out in the relevant committee of the Russian State Duma

    What does "have no experience" mean? Did Academician Chersky bring tree seedlings or tourists to the Far East? What is being built on Sakhalin is childish prank compared to the Nord Stream. It's a pity that the ship was torn from work. We focused on the Baltic, while the most interesting things unfold in the north and east. Sakhalin-3, then the fourth, production began in Taimyr (in the long term in 2030 + 2,5% world production).
    As for "it is not clear where exactly to expect trouble", why is it not clear? From across the ocean. yes It is not clear yet what kind of dirty tricks they will do, I think, everything that they can. Yes and figs with them. laughing The dissatisfaction of the decrepit underdeggemon only provokes. smile
    1. Observer2014 Offline Observer2014
      Observer2014 16 May 2020 20: 07
      0
      Quote: 123
      Now, Gazprom, which does not have the relevant experience, will have to independently lay the offshore part, and then face the possibility of falling under new US sanctions, as stated by US Senator Ted Cruz. The problem is that it is not yet clear exactly where to expect the trouble, which was rightly pointed out in the relevant committee of the Russian State Duma

      What does "have no experience" mean? Did Academician Chersky bring tree seedlings or tourists to the Far East? What is being built on Sakhalin is childish prank compared to the Nord Stream. It's a pity that the ship was torn from work. We focused on the Baltic, while the most interesting things unfold in the north and east. Sakhalin-3, then the fourth, production began in Taimyr (in the long term in 2030 + 2,5% world production).
      As for "it is not clear where exactly to expect trouble", why is it not clear? From across the ocean. yes It is not clear yet what kind of dirty tricks they will do, I think, everything that they can. Yes and figs with them. laughing The dissatisfaction of the decrepit underdeggemon only provokes. smile

      And I’m starting to like your comments. yes good And this comment of yours does not go against my unchanging opinion "How could a grandiose construction start without your own material base in the Baltic". Well, the ending about the decrepit hegemon is something like that. Uryakalka will like it. wink
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 16 May 2020 21: 23
        +1
        How could a grandiose construction start without your own material base in the Baltic.

        Elementary, one’s own material base can not always be dispensed with. You probably had to use paid services to dig a trench, it’s not necessary to buy an excavator. There is such a thing - economic feasibility. By the way, they almost did work in the Baltic, what to do, the contractors were unreliable, it’s okay, they will finish it on their own.
        1. Observer2014 Offline Observer2014
          Observer2014 16 May 2020 21: 48
          +2
          Elementary, one’s own material base can not always be dispensed with.

          You forgot to add WITHOUT. yes Elementary, withoutown material base can be dispensed with far from always.

          in order to dig a trench, it is not necessary to buy an excavator.

          This is not a trench. And here, please, understand me correctly. This is not a collision or other similar snowstorm. Here you need to have not just a tactical mindset. A geopolitical one. This is the difference between a tactician and a strategist. I would never even lift the pipes to the sea, not having the opportunity to finish the blast started. yes For if you play big, you have to consider everything and every detail. Before the behavior of the molecules, calculate everything around the designated event. And only then. It is then to act. And what do we see NOW? laughing Procrastination is a minus. Yes, even my comment is a minus to the system! And I want my state RUSSIA to have no mistakes at all on its life path.
          1. 123 Offline 123
            123 (123) 16 May 2020 22: 15
            +2
            This is not a trench. And here, please, understand me correctly.

            In addition to the difference in volumes, I do not see any special differences. If it’s easier for you, imagine that you still need to lay the pipe in the trench. So what? Will you count everything up to the molecules? Pre-sort the excavator, deliver spare parts in case of breakage. You’ll bind the excavator to the levers so that it doesn’t run away, take the phone away, so that its boss doesn’t withdraw it, and seal the mouth with tape so that it doesn’t get drunk or do you risk to start digging?

            And I want my state RUSSIA to have no mistakes at all on its life path.

            And I want people not to get sick. Will we talk about the Ministry of Health?
            1. Observer2014 Offline Observer2014
              Observer2014 16 May 2020 22: 19
              -1
              So what? Will you count everything up to the molecules?

              yes I will. Can't believe it? But what to do. People are different. Everyone is an individual.
              1. 123 Offline 123
                123 (123) 16 May 2020 22: 42
                0
                I will. Can't believe it? But what to do. People are different. Everyone is an individual.

                Good luck in acquiring an excavator. drinks I hope he will serve for a long time. yes
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                2. The comment was deleted.
  3. aleksandrmakedo Offline aleksandrmakedo
    aleksandrmakedo (Dubovitsky Victor Kuzmich) 16 May 2020 12: 34
    +5
    Quote: Sergey Latyshev
    In fact, all this should be calculated in advance. For the failure of the contract - forfeits, - for the sudden rules - the courts.
    The Big Players, in the "terrible" West, that we have, are regularly suing.

    The transfer of the case to the court should include a calculation of losses, financial, accomplished, expected, moral, prestige and so on. Since losses are still growing, there is no way to include them in these calculations in full. Wait. The gas pipeline will be completed, all losses will be determined. Then the court.
    1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
      Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 16 May 2020 13: 15
      -3
      We are waiting, sir. However, it has been heard so far about the vessels with Naftogaz.

      And about the lawsuits about the South Stream, claims against Bulgaria, Germany, Poland, various contractors, etc. - something is not heard.
      The impression that they were at random, without having previously concluded agreements with countries through which pipes will pass ....
    2. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
      Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 16 May 2020 14: 30
      -4
      aleksandrmakedo Yes, in strategy you are unlikely to yield to the Macedonian from your nickname. Only now I dare to suggest that if they are suddenly allowed to use the gas pipeline only by 50%, I think it will take another 100 years to file a lawsuit so that the losses will come running, which have no analogues in the world. Then there will be not just a "trial", but a "trial of the century" !!!
  4. Dear sofa expert. 16 May 2020 14: 28
    +2
    ... how Gazprom will solve the Nord Stream problem ...

    But it will not be. There are a lot of any legal inconsistencies (and loopholes) that will be used by both Russia and Germany, and SP-2 will be brought to the end and put into operation. Too big mutual interests this project is tied. Germany, in turn, also invested a lot of money and ambition in this matter. Starting from environmental ones: rejection of nuclear and coal energy, and ending with the lack of a real alternative to Russian gas. Dutch capacities supplying gas to themselves, as well as to the whole of northern Germany, were depleted. Germany has already invested heavily in the transition to the use of the Russian product. For a long time, infrastructure has been built to receive Russian gas - from hubs to giant UGSs, and, accordingly, delivery pipes to them. All production and private equipment was converted from L-gas (Dutch) to Russian H-gas. This nuance, by the way, is for some reason hushed up in terms of pipe sharing. There are various types of gases (in this case, according to energy intensity), and it is impossible to mix them for various reasons, both legal and technical), etc.
    So all this fuss with the ships is only to distract Americans who are tired of everything, with their instructions, and use the time gained for the final laying of the pipe. Only 160 km left. Soon to finish.
  5. aleksandrmakedo Offline aleksandrmakedo
    aleksandrmakedo (Dubovitsky Victor Kuzmich) 16 May 2020 16: 39
    +1
    Quote: Arkharov
    aleksandrmakedo Yes, in strategy you are unlikely to yield to the Macedonian from your nickname. Only now I dare to suggest that if they are suddenly allowed to use the gas pipeline only by 50%, I think it will take another 100 years to file a lawsuit so that the losses will come running, which have no analogues in the world. Then there will be not just a "trial", but a "trial of the century" !!!

    I think, and you will live to see the lifting of all restrictions. A rare situation when I want to live for the person I hate.
  6. aleksandrmakedo Offline aleksandrmakedo
    aleksandrmakedo (Dubovitsky Victor Kuzmich) 16 May 2020 16: 44
    +2
    Quote: Sergey Latyshev
    We are waiting, sir. However, it has been heard so far about the vessels with Naftogaz.
    And about the lawsuits about the South Stream, claims against Bulgaria, Germany, Poland, various contractors, etc. - something is not heard.
    The impression that they were at random, without having previously concluded agreements with countries through which pipes will pass ....

    Germany did not invest loot in Naftogaz. There are no contacts with Bulgaria either. Moreover, Bulgaria would in some case be a competitor in gas transit to European countries. Same thing with South Stream. But in the SP-2 the loot of the Germans plays, and not small ones.
    The way Siemens was treated and the turbines in the Crimea were seen, it is more important for them to find an excuse so that the penguins do not begin to extrude.
    The union of Germany and Russia is a nightmare for a penguin rooster. We will find opportunities and solve the problem in such a way that you never dreamed of. You can already wind up your pipe.
    1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
      Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 16 May 2020 19: 43
      -3
      I don’t worry about your coming out ... I don’t care.

      In general, now Germany wants to, and Gazprom is turning. All the rest have already turned. There, the news about Poland is nearby.
      And so on what twists, think for yourself.
  7. 69 Offline 69
    69 16 May 2020 18: 36
    0
    Scum afraid, do not go to the forest ...
  8. cmonman Offline cmonman
    cmonman (Garik Mokin) 16 May 2020 20: 55
    -2
    Finally, a compromise may be putting up 50% of the Nord Stream-2 free capacities for auction, where the state corporation itself can take advantage of them.

    And here it is necessary to translate from the language of a lawyer-by-divorce into the language of a lawyer-by-international-business. Because questions immediately arise. If 50% of the capacity does not belong to Gazprom, then how will Gazprom put this part up for auction? Then the EU should do it.
    If Gazprom owns 100% of the capacity, then it can put up 50% for the auction, but buy it yourself? For $ 1? For $ 100k? For 100 million? Any ideas?
    Sergey, please, decipher your thought, I can’t sleep because of curiosity ...!
    1. Dear sofa expert. 16 May 2020 23: 14
      +2
      ... because questions immediately arise. If 50% of the capacity does not belong to Gazprom, then how will Gazprom put this part up for auction ..

      Look, I’m reading you, reading you, and I just can’t understand where you get all this nonsense from? What legal document inspires you to make such conclusions? If this is the "3rd energy package of the EU", then immediately the question is: have you personally read it?
      1. cmonman Offline cmonman
        cmonman (Garik Mokin) 17 May 2020 00: 29
        -4
        Find the one who put you Plus for your ignorance and teach together. I know what I'm talking about, you are not.
        1. Dear sofa expert. 17 May 2020 00: 46
          +2
          No, you do not know. Because you, this “energy package”, never read it yourself, but I read it, and I know every point in it. I work for a company that used to be a member of this project. And you - having read stupid things from a tabloid newspaper, a degrading American pensioner.
        2. Dear sofa expert. 21 May 2020 01: 49
          0
          ... The German regulator granted Nord Stream exemption from the application of the provisions of the EU Gas Directive ..

          https://m.vz.ru/news/2020/5/20/1040472.html

          Set yourself a couple of minuses for your ignorance, if you have self-esteem. Although what am I talking about?)
  9. aleksandrmakedo Offline aleksandrmakedo
    aleksandrmakedo (Dubovitsky Victor Kuzmich) 16 May 2020 21: 19
    +1
    Quote: cmonman
    Finally, a compromise may be putting up 50% of the Nord Stream-2 free capacities for auction, where the state corporation itself can take advantage of them.
    And here it is necessary to translate from the language of a lawyer-by-divorce into the language of a lawyer-by-international-business. Because questions immediately arise. If 50% of the capacity does not belong to Gazprom, then how will Gazprom put this part up for auction? Then the EU should do it.
    If Gazprom owns 100% of the capacity, then it can put up 50% for the auction, but buy it yourself? For $ 1? For $ 100k? for 100 million? Any ideas?
    Sergey, please, decipher your thought, I can’t sleep because of curiosity ...!

    Is it so difficult to provide free space to a company, say, a Kazakh company, which, according to the proven "reverse" scheme, "pump out" 50% of its fuel?
    1. cmonman Offline cmonman
      cmonman (Garik Mokin) 17 May 2020 18: 52
      -3
      If a Kazakh / Iranian / Azerbaijani company has gas towers and pumps gas - no problem! But the EU reverse check, has the right - pays its $$$ ...
  10. aleksandrmakedo Offline aleksandrmakedo
    aleksandrmakedo (Dubovitsky Victor Kuzmich) 17 May 2020 18: 55
    +1
    Quote: cmonman
    if a Kazakh / Iranian / Azerbaijani company has gas towers and pumps gas - no problem! But the EU reverse check, has the right - pays its $$$ ...

    But to see for yourself is not fate?

    The production of natural gas in Kazakhstan in the first three months of 2019 reached 14,6 billion cubic meters, which is 3,6% more than the same period in 2018, of which 5,9 billion cubic meters of natural gas in the gaseous state, Energyprom reports.

    In the regional context, according to the results of two months of 2019, 44,3% of natural gas production in liquid and gaseous state fell on the Atyrau region (4,3 billion cubic meters, + 13,3% per year), 35,3% - in the West - Kazakhstan (3,4 billion cubic meters, 1,7% per year), 12,1% - in the Aktobe region (1,2 billion cubic meters, + 6% per year). ...

    https://kursiv.kz/news/otraslevye-temy/2019-04/dobycha-prirodnogo-gaza-v-kazakhstane-uvelichilas-na-36-za-god
    1. cmonman Offline cmonman
      cmonman (Garik Mokin) 17 May 2020 21: 59
      0
      But to see for yourself is not fate?

      So after all, placeholders for 50% of the pipe should be sought not for me, but for Gazprom !!!
      So give him advice! And to me on cymbals, how Gazprom will tear apart Europe. I’m only sure that Europe will not offend itself !!!
  11. aleksandrmakedo Offline aleksandrmakedo
    aleksandrmakedo (Dubovitsky Victor Kuzmich) 18 May 2020 00: 27
    +1
    Quote: cmonman
    But to see for yourself is not fate?

    So after all, placeholders for 50% of the pipe should be sought not for me, but for Gazprom !!!
    So give him advice! And to me on cymbals, how Gazprom will tear apart Europe. I’m only sure that Europe will not offend itself !!!

    I don’t think that people work in Gazprom, it’s more stupid than you and me.
    But Europe needs gas. And if he will be in abundance and at a price that suits them, then they do not care where he is mined.
    1. cmonman Offline cmonman
      cmonman (Garik Mokin) 21 May 2020 02: 20
      -1
      I don’t think that people work in Gazprom, it’s more stupid than you and me.

      Neither you, nor the people of Gazprom, nor myself, my beloved, are stupid. And how Gazprom will act is not my concern. But as a consumer of gas / electric power for my home, I can say that the separation of ownership of gas / pipe (cable / electric) brought me, as a consumer, up to 25% savings when we introduced this rule about 15 years ago. Therefore, I believe that the rule is very useful for the user of gas. I deeply spit on the profit of the earner - I have different interests with him. laughing
  12. aleksandrmakedo Offline aleksandrmakedo
    aleksandrmakedo (Dubovitsky Victor Kuzmich) 21 May 2020 09: 59
    +2
    Quote: cmonman
    “I don’t think that people work in Gazprom, it’s stupider than you and me.”
    Neither you, nor the people of Gazprom, nor myself, my beloved, are stupid. And how Gazprom will act is not my concern. But as a consumer of gas / electric power for my home, I can say that the separation of ownership of gas / pipe (cable / electric) brought me, as a consumer, up to 25% savings when we introduced this rule about 15 years ago. Therefore, I believe that the rule is very useful for the user of gas. I deeply spit on the profit of the earner - I have different interests with him. laughing

    I don’t think you are right. Gas prices at the consumer are driven by the price of oil, to which the price of gas is now tied.



    However, prices vary significantly. So, the margin of your local distributors is still decent.