Why the coronavirus pandemic and quarantine can last for years

As the coronavirus pandemic develops, more and more information about it appears in the world, which requires an analysis of specialists and a certain understanding of society. Already, doctors are warning about the risk of the second, third and subsequent waves of the epidemic, and that quarantine is a very long time, possibly for years.

Let's try to arrange what is already known about COVID-19.

Virus danger

The mortality rate from COVID-19 varies from country to country due to a combination of many factors, but the average rate is 4%. In Italy, the most affected by the epidemic, it is higher, but researchers note that mortality is much higher in the age group over 60 years. As you know, in this country with its mild climate, a lot of people live to old age, which negatively affects the statistics.

For comparison, the mortality rate for swine flu was 17%, for Ebola - 90%. In no case does this mean that the degree of danger of COVID-19 can be understated. People are dying all over the world, disease must be fought.

When to wait for the medicine

Unfortunately, as in the Hollywood blockbuster, when the vaccine appears at the last moment and saves everyone, it will not work. In reality, from the time of development to the appearance of a reliable and safe targeted medicine, it will take years, from 5 to 8 years. No one will allow an untested, potent drug to enter the market that can give serious side effects to the patient’s body.


A lot of people have already recovered from the coronavirus on their own, so the logical question arises as to whether vaccines can be created for those who have not yet become ill. This is all complicated. First, you need to quickly create large volumes of vaccine and distribute it to all medical facilities for administration to millions and billions of people.

Secondly, mass vaccination must be carried out before the epidemic, so that the population has managed to develop immunity in advance. Now it’s too late, and doctors are warning that the effect may be exactly the opposite of what is desired. Doctors regret that the work on a vaccine for SARS, a coronavirus similar to COVID-19, was once frozen. Although these strains vary, vaccinated patients could receive cross-immunity, which would attenuate the negative effects of COVID-19.

What to do

If you look at the statistics, then the vast majority of patients with coronavirus recover. Each person carries the disease in his own way, there is no single prescription for treatment. The hardest hit is people who still suffer from some serious diseases, which is the main cause of deaths. Having felt the symptoms, you must contact a medical institution for help.

The root of the problem lies precisely in the limited capacity of hospitals that are not designed for pandemics. “Self-isolation” aims to limit the spread of infection and allow doctors to cope with the flow of patients. But such a quarantine alone does not solve the problem of a pandemic, which can be repeated again and again until an effective medicine is developed.

According to experts, it is possible to cope with COVID-19 only when 70% of the population will have antibodies to coronavirus, having been vaccinated or ill. Therefore, in the current situation, the real fight against the epidemic can last for years.
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  1. Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 6 May 2020 13: 01
    And China and K have already lifted quarantine. And others did not announce.

    As a result, there will be another type of flu. It remains only to develop a vaccine or medicine. And the production, I read, is a worked-out case ...
  2. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 6 May 2020 17: 12
    Previously, during an epidemic, fortresses were closed to prevent infection from entering the city. But how they had food, is unknown.

    - Misha, do you have a coronavirus?
    - Yes.
    “And where did you bring it from?” From China?
    - You hurt. From Italy".
  3. BMP-2 Offline BMP-2
    BMP-2 (Vladimir V.) 6 May 2020 20: 00
    Why the coronavirus pandemic and quarantine can last for years

    Because the actions to combat it almost all over the world are somehow "a little moronic" carried out ...