New temperature records: what weather awaits Russians in summer

And again about the weather. Spring smoothly passed its equator, and meteorologists have already begun to change their forecasts for the summer towards deterioration. In addition to all our economic problems and the difficult epidemiological situation, a very “hot" summer is expected.

According to some estimates, it will be one of the five hottest in the history of observations, according to others, summer 2020 will become the hottest at all. What does this mean for our country?

Until now, the scariest summer in Russia was considered the summer of 2010. Such an abnormally dry and hot weather has not been, according to Roshydromet, since the calling of the Varangians Rurik. Representatives of the Hydrometeorological Center stated that such heat had not existed for the past five thousand years. The blocking anticyclone did not let other air masses into the territory of Russia from the beginning of June until the first half of August. The result was a temperature above the norm by an average of 6-7 degrees, numerous forest fires and smothering smog over many cities from burning peat bogs.

Today, 10 years later, meteorologists have not yet talked about an abnormal anticyclone, but forecasts are already very negative now. The head of the Hydrometeorological Center Roman Wilfand said:

Maybe the year will not be record warm, but the second in the temperature rank or the third. That there will be high temperature is unconditional. With a probability of 99%, he will be among the five hottest years.

More pessimistic are his colleagues from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). According to their estimates, the probability that the coming summer will be the hottest in history is 75%. What gives them reason to say so?

At first, the average temperature on the planet is constantly growing. Every five years they show new temperature records. Now it has become “fashionable” to criticize, but it would be very naive to deny the anthropogenic factor. Greenhouse gas emissions are gradually increasing, USA, the largest economy peace, fundamentally withdrew from the Paris climate agreement. Last January was the warmest in the history of observations, February and March - in second place in this rating.

Secondly, ocean researchers point out that a climatic event like El Nino could happen. Overheated water at the equator of the Pacific Ocean transfers about a large amount of energy to the atmosphere about every 4-5 years, gradually leading to an increase in temperature in temperate latitudes. If this phenomenon occurs in 2020, then this summer will be the hottest in history. By the way, before that, 2016 was recognized as the warmest.

The consequences can be extremely serious. Winter was generally mean for snowfalls. Due to lack of moisture in the soil, the risk of recurrence of large-scale forest and steppe fires increases sharply. It should also be borne in mind that a significant part of Russia is in the permafrost zone, but due to abnormal temperature records it may not be so eternal. Due to soil deformation, the risk of accidents on pipelines, roads and railways, and damage to buildings is increased.

In addition, with the thawing of permafrost, an increasing amount of methane and greenhouse gas will be released, and the anaerobic bacteria that produce it will begin to awaken more actively. Together, this can enhance the effect of increasing temperature on the planet.
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  1. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) April 28 2020 15: 38
    Perhaps in some areas in 2010 was the hottest summer. And here, in the Volga region, it happened much hotter. Everyone probably remembers the summer in the USSR, when all regions provided potato to all regions of Belarus.
    1. Brancodd Offline Brancodd
      Brancodd April 28 2020 16: 11
      In Moscow in 2010, there was really a gas chamber. Didn't really let go until mid-August. The smoke was very hard to breathe. The houses warmed up and gave off warmth at night, it was impossible to sleep. The exact data was not published, but many cores died, etc. It was more abrupt than quarantine. Many have already forgotten, but if it was only a test of the pen, reconnaissance in force, so to speak, then we are waiting for "fun" times.
      1. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) April 29 2020 08: 14
        Well, if you consider Moscow for the whole country, then of course.
        1. Brancodd Offline Brancodd
          Brancodd 1 May 2020 17: 27
          In 2010, a powerful blocking anticyclone kept the hell over almost the entire territory of central Russia. It’s just that in large cities it was felt more sharply.
  2. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) April 29 2020 15: 34
    ... as the permafrost melts, more and more methane will be released.

    It’s time for mankind to come up with technologies for binding carbon into building structures in order to reduce its amount in the atmosphere, if forests cannot protect from fires. Although it’s enough to start by doubling the amount of forest protection.
  3. Oswa Offline Oswa
    Oswa (Svetlana) 9 May 2020 20: 42
    The contribution of carbon dioxide to the greenhouse effect is estimated from 9 to 26%, the share of carbon dioxide of anthropogenic origin is 8% in the total volume. It turns out that the maximum contribution of mankind to the increase in greenhouse gases is 2,08%. The remaining 98% are non-anthropogenic factors.
    In addition, the theory of greenhouse warming contradicts the fact that in the history of the Earth there were periods when the concentration of carbon dioxide was much higher and the temperature was lower, i.e. the opposite effect was observed.
    Thus, the above theory does not explain all the facts, which means it may be wrong.
    I am more inclined to believe that this is a convenient pretext for economic gains, since all "harmful" types of electricity are much cheaper and solve the problem of peak loads.