US media: low oil prices threaten Putin’s power

The catastrophic collapse in black gold prices could be a prologue to the sunset of the era of Russian President Vladimir Putin, writes Slate magazine (USA). This is the gloomy outcome of the confrontation between Moscow and Riyadh. A number of other states also got into a difficult situation.

In Saudi Arabia, oil revenues account for 60 percent of the country's total GDP, as well as two-thirds of the state budget and almost three-quarters of its exports. In other Middle East states, including Iran, Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait, dependence is even greater. In Russia, oil accounts for a third of GDP, half of the budget and two-thirds of exports

- informs edition.

In Russia, it is noted in the publication, the rise and fall political regimes occurred along with the movement of oil prices. The collapse of the Soviet Union was largely caused, or at least accelerated, by the incredible collapse in the value of black gold. Likewise, high prices for precious raw materials have contributed to the relative stability of President Vladimir Putin's rule.

The Russian president, who knows the history of his country well, must now be haunted by gloomy thoughts, the text says.

Saudi Arabia and Russia, two states dependent on oil sales, rely on their own sovereign funds. In Russia, it amounts to 150 billion dollars, Saudi Arabia has twice as much.

A country's resilience to revenue loss is often measured by its “breakeven point” - the price a country needs to balance its budget. The breakeven point of Russia is $ 42 per barrel. For Saudi Arabia, this is 84 dollars per barrel.

Over the past decade, the price of crude oil has fluctuated between 60 and 100 dollars per barrel. But earlier this week, the price fell below $ 16.

The relatively wealthy Russia and Saudi Arabia are not in the most difficult situation among the mining states. Libya's breakeven point is $ 100 per barrel. For Iran, this is 195 dollars.

Nigeria, which boasts the fastest growing the economy in Africa, it has a break-even point of $ 144 per barrel. The current price means bankruptcy for this country.

The previous decline in oil prices, as Slate notes, had a positive effect: they caused a decrease in retail gas prices and, thus, stimulated the economy. This does not happen during the current recession, because due to total quarantine no one else goes anywhere.
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  1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) April 26 2020 15: 12
    As if the United States without Mexicans in the fields were covered with a dust bag.
  2. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) April 26 2020 15: 25
    With or without Putin, this is not a question that should worry Russians. It is not the price of oil that threatens Russia's stability. The real threat is the lack of aspiration for the country's development. The so-called "elite" shows a complete inability to defend the interests of the country. And how much oil will cost is a completely secondary issue.
    1. The comment was deleted.
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) April 26 2020 16: 34
        This is not a mistake. This is a focused policy. I’m afraid that shaking the air gives nothing. The authorities forgot that the revolution in Russia did not happen in November (October) 1917. In the outback, it began in the summer of 1917.
    2. Alexander Semenov (Alexander Semenov) April 26 2020 16: 32
      The interests of the elite and the state are two different things, sometimes they coincide, sometimes not. Moreover, some will always be higher than others .. which ones are known ..
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) April 26 2020 16: 36
        When they do not coincide, the "elite" can sit in their place only up to a certain point. I would not like to see this, but I think that the time for comments is rapidly coming to an end.
        1. Digital error Offline Digital error
          Digital error (Eugene) April 27 2020 19: 27
          Quote: Bakht
          only up to a point

          You can sit on bayonets, but uncomfortable and not forever.
    3. Digital error Offline Digital error
      Digital error (Eugene) April 26 2020 22: 06
      Quote: Bakht
      The so-called "elite" shows a complete inability to defend the interests of the country

      And why, if (?) The money is in Western offshore, and the children are in Western yell.

      Quote: Bakht
      how much oil will cost, this is a completely secondary question

      The sovereign fund of the SA is twice as large as the National Welfare Fund of the Russian Federation with a population four times smaller. This means, hypothetically, that for every $ 1 that can give its citizens of the Russian Federation, CA can give its own $ 8. So I would not underestimate this factor with the SA's determination to "go to the dumping end". hi
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) April 26 2020 22: 45
        All this is just talk about sovereign debts or "airbags". History shows that external factors rarely lead to the destruction of states. The price of oil is an important factor, but not a determining one. The resources of the state are much broader than one product.
        Who is interested in the price of a barrel of oil? When she was $ 100, it was bad, when she became $ 20, was it much worse? Or is it the same?
        The problem is the lack of a nationally oriented elite. Those who sit in the Kremlin are the comprador bourgeoisie. I still insist on this very definition.
        Zh. Bichevskaya has a very nationalistic song "Russian March". There is a very specific line there:

        The Russians are coming, freeing the Third Rome ...

        Russian march, he will finish the coven
        Those who mocked the country

        I wonder what she’s talking about ....

        This is where the threat to Putin’s power is, not some barrel of oil and its price.

        for every $ 1 that can give its citizens of the Russian Federation

        I have difficulty believing that the authorities can give something ....
        1. Digital error Offline Digital error
          Digital error (Eugene) April 26 2020 22: 52
          Quote: Bakht
          That's where the threat to Putin’s power, and not some barrel of oil

          With language removed. yes
        2. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
          Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) April 27 2020 14: 19
          Quote: Bakht
          The price of oil is an important factor, but not a determining one. The resources of the state are much wider, of a single product.

          You can argue. The existing social contract in Russia implies that the elites are engaged in their deeds, but provide for the growth (or at least not the drop) of citizens' incomes. That is, by and large, loyalty was bought. A fall in oil prices can lead to a drop in citizens' incomes, which can destroy a social contract, as loyalty will not buy anything.
          1. Bakht Offline Bakht
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) April 27 2020 17: 45
            There is no "social contract" in Russia. There is no need to transfer Western assessments to the Russian Plain.
            1. Digital error Offline Digital error
              Digital error (Eugene) April 27 2020 19: 29
              Quote: Bakht
              "Social contract" does not exist in Russia

              There was a "Crimean consensus" - until they once again pocketed us (pension "reform" and an increase in VAT), without offering anything in return. The only thing I remembered was a paid day off for medical examination. Extremely generous compensation for not paying for 5 years.
              1. Bakht Offline Bakht
                Bakht (Bakhtiyar) April 27 2020 19: 47
                The Crimean Consensus is not a social contract. Rather, the opposite is true. The people agreed to sanctions and the deterioration of their position, but in return they received pride and self-respect. Not everything is measured by sausage. But the authorities did not live up to the expectations of the people. The principle of Russian society (as a social structure) is not measured by benefits. The authorities (the Europeanized elite) have forgotten the basic principle of building Russian society. It is not a sin to remind.

                Widely located on a vast continent, the Russians organically nourished and have a special, almost religious attitude to their harsh land. This feeling is absolute, embedded in the genes of love and devotion to the vastness, soil, to the native ashes, to the covenants of the ancestors, to the warmth of the family. In hastily built brick cities and empty wooden villages, in the crates of communal apartments and stingy belongings, there was an uncalculated feeling of bottomless love for one’s country, a great and holy feeling. This feeling neutralized dissatisfaction with the regime, this feeling removed the factor of human fatigue, this feeling depreciated life itself before a holy love for its land. This feeling is impossible to kill. It forms the basis of our worldview.

                Western individualism is not easy to figure out. It is a non-aggressive, sacrificial feeling. It was, is, and always will be easier for our compatriots to die for their world than to see its reproach. The holiness of life is inferior in such a soul to the holiness of self-sacrifice - it is almost a national religion. Dying in troubled times, being driven out to a foreign land, the Russians never complained, as they still do not complain. But no one will ever be able to shake their elementary and absolute readiness to lay down their lives for their never-before-affectionate, but infinitely beautiful and forever beloved homeland. As if overcoming the cruelty of existence, as if acting in spite of all the difficulties of life, as if forgetting the frost and cold, unsettled life, the horror of impassability, the fury of the elements, the inhabitants of our country are dying for what is dear to them. Look, in the most cruel twentieth century for us, since 1904, we have lost almost half of our population. But who will doubt the determination of the remaining half?

                That’s where the danger is for Putin. He can lean on the people and become a match for the titans of Russian history. And it may become the successor to Gorbachev and Yeltsin. It is up to him ....
                1. Digital error Offline Digital error
                  Digital error (Eugene) April 27 2020 21: 04
                  Quote: Bakht
                  It is up to him ....

                  Under him, the Yeltsin Center was built.
                  With him

                  in order to ensure state and public safety, protect the rights and freedoms of man and citizen A new body of federal executive power was created - the Federal Service of the National Guard Troops of the Russian Federation

                  Under him, his administration accepted a million living (full name, passport details, contact numbers - this is not for you) signatures against the pension "maneuver", which did not affect anything.
                  Under him, the most prominent oppositionists were removed from the HRO - democracy needs criticism, not dictatorship.
                  I believe he made his choice a long time ago, hence the "non-resistance" to "Tereshkova's amendment".
            2. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
              Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) April 28 2020 14: 44
              Quote: Bakht
              There is no "social contract" in Russia. There is no need to transfer Western assessments to the Russian Plain.

              If the Russian Guard does not have to pacify the riots in a day, then a social contract exists.
              1. Bakht Offline Bakht
                Bakht (Bakhtiyar) April 28 2020 15: 57
                Right every day?
    4. michael.dadeko Offline michael.dadeko
      michael.dadeko (Mikhail Dadeko) April 27 2020 09: 43
      good Two hands for!
  3. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker April 26 2020 18: 27
    ... low oil prices threaten Putin’s power.

    As long as there are fools in the world,
    deceiving us, therefore, with our hands!
  4. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) April 26 2020 18: 58
    They don’t understand anything. Putin just once, and worried about the rise in price of gasoline.
    And he will go on to preside.