The war with Riyadh: Yemeni Hussites can help solve the "oil issue"


Due to a combination of circumstances, oil became not just free, but even began to pay extra for its receipt. A few months ago it was just impossible to imagine. The price of -39,44 dollars per barrel will go down in history forever economic Sciences. It cannot be called otherwise than a global energy crisis.


Previously, futurologists and some analysts scared future hydrocarbon shortages and armed conflicts over raw materials. Now it starts to smell like a war due to an oversupply of oil in the market.

This is a serious matter. The OPEC + deal, which could have helped in early March, now has no special effect on quotes. The world market is simply overstocked with “black gold”. Usually, from the moment of oil production until the buyer receives it, there is a time lag of two months. Due to falling demand, the extracted raw materials simply have nowhere to go: storage facilities, tankers, railway tanks are full, oil products are even poured into special plastic bags. There is, of course, the option of simply pouring “black gold” on the ground, but this is just as black humor. Therefore, oil workers, who recently rowed dollars with a shovel, are now forced to pay their customers.

Moreover, everything is compounded by the coronavirus pandemic, which hit industrial production in all countries and reduced overall business activity. According to various estimates, there are extra 20 to 30 million barrels of oil per day on the market. Recall that the OPEC + deal concerned only the volume of 10 million barrels, so it turned out to be like a dead poultice. So what to do, how to revive the global economy?

Find a vaccine?


The root of the problem is paralysis that has swept the most economically developed countries. The industry is idle, the volume of flights and transportation has fallen, and the level of consumption is declining. It is all about quarantine (“self-isolation”), introduced because of fear of coronavirus. Without denying the danger of COVID-19, I would like to note that the atmosphere of horror injected before him does much more harm than himself.
For the psychological discharge of the masses and the resumption of normal life, we need a vaccine or what will be called it.

Work on it is carried out in different countries. Unfortunately, as in Hollywood films, this will not work: even the most miraculous means will first have to be properly tested on animals, and only then in humans, in order to identify and rule out possible side effects. This is not a quick task, the process can take a year and a half, and then the coronavirus itself can mutate.

Remove excess?


If you can’t solve the cause, then you can begin to deal with the consequences. President Trump said OPEC + countries have agreed to reduce production not by 10, but by 20 million barrels per day. This is a huge figure, which means that some major player must actually leave the market in order for the rest to remain with their own. But who voluntarily agrees to this? In fact, this means a tacit continuation of the "oil war" between Russia and Saudi Arabia. It can take several forms.

At first, you can wait, who is "blown away" first. If you look from the outside, then Moscow has a definite advantage over Riyadh: Russian oil is exported through pipelines, we have no critical dependence on tankers that are overcrowded to capacity, the freight for which has grown 10 times. A cheap barrel hits not only the Russian economy, but also Saudi Arabia, that's true. Unfortunately, the hopes for accumulated reserves in our NWF are also somewhat exaggerated. On the eve of Izvestia, it was reported, citing its sources, that the federal budget deficit this year will amount to 5,6 trillion rubles, despite the recent surplus of 900 billion. In general, you can sit and wait for someone to run out of money first, but the result is not obvious.

Secondly, you can try to force someone out of the oil market forcibly. For example, american policy and businessmen have directly proposed that President Donald Trump impose sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector. The measure is very tough and fraught with retaliatory steps. Of course, the Kremlin is unlikely to declare war on Saudi Arabia, and even less so on the United States, but supporting the Yemenite Hussites in their struggle against Saudi invaders is a completely “working option”. You can add to this piggy bank information Middle Eastern media that a black cat ran between President Putin and Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Recall that some time ago, the highly successful combined attack of cruise missiles and UAVs against an oil field and refineries belonging to Riyadh caused great resonance. Then the Saudis convicted Iran.

The topic is slippery, but the stakes are very high. A good option that would suit everyone and not offend anyone until it is visible.
13 comments
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  1. Alexander Semenov (Alexander Semenov) April 23 2020 13: 30
    -2
    This war will again be decided at the negotiating table with the United States, new red lines and concessions ... of course, something will be donated by the United States (Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan). Given the complexity of the situation, the Russian Federation is again trying, as always, to translate everything into the framework of the agreements on strategic offensive arms or hypersound, to present everything under the sauce of global stability. If you carefully look at the foreign press, some points that the US will not consider during the negotiations have already been announced. From the Russian Federation so far everything looks very sluggish ....
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 24 2020 07: 42
      0
      Our great geopoliticians simply have nowhere else to retreat. If it is necessary to reduce total production to 20 million, and instead of the existing 2,5 million, the quota will increase to 5 million for Russia, then there will be almost nothing left for exports, taking into account domestic consumption.
      Such is the fee for “pathological amateurs” in the leadership of the country's oil and gas sector, who are not able to calculate the consequences of their decisions, and at the same time shout by phone at business partners. crying
      There is an option on the rights of black humor: to “vaccinate” the population with saline, claiming that it is a super-effective remedy for coronavirus, with the expectation of a placebo effect. Say on TV that the coronavirus is defeated. To regrow statistics of diseases and mortality, putting indicators in flu and so on.
      This is a joke, naturally.
  2. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) April 23 2020 13: 40
    -4
    ... Moscow has a definite advantage over Riyadh: Russian oil is exported through pipelines, we do not have a critical dependence on tankers that are overcrowded, the freight for which has grown 10 times.

    - Not everything is so simple ... - pipelines also have their own vulnerability ... - The "man-made emergency" with the pollution of Russian oil that happened a year ago has already been forgotten ...
    - And if this happens again, then for Russia it will be a very, very serious blow ... - And this can easily happen again ...- an ordinary economic diversion and ... and Russia will lose a lot for a long time ...

    - Concerning ...

    support Yemenite Hussites in their fight against Saudi invaders

    - This, that, then Russia is not the first to support all kinds of “world poverty and hunger” (Russia simply has such karma), only for many decades of such “support” - Russia still hasn’t achieved anything good ... - didn’t it will turn out with these Hussites ...

    - In general ...- the situation with this "worthless oil" is likely to drag on ...
    -The impression is that humanity has already invented and mastered new types of energy; invented new engines that run on the "energy of the moon" and oil was no longer in demand at the level of coal ...
    - I put my plus to the author of the article ... - But the author himself somehow is not very ... generous ...
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 24 2020 07: 33
      -2
      Quote: gorenina91
      - It's not so simple ... - pipelines also have their vulnerability ... - The "man-made emergency" with the pollution of Russian oil that happened a year ago has already been forgotten ...
      - And if this happens again, then for Russia it will be a very, very serious blow ... - And this can easily happen again ...- an ordinary economic diversion and ... and Russia will lose a lot for a long time ...

      That's why I wrote that the topic is slippery. The recipe works both ways ...
  3. bratchanin3 Offline bratchanin3
    bratchanin3 (Gennady) April 23 2020 14: 18
    0
    There is no negative price, it’s bullshit, it’s European perverts who climbed into the oil market. How can serious people talk about negative prices?
    1. Digital error Offline Digital error
      Digital error (Eugene) April 23 2020 16: 15
      +2
      Quote: bratchanin3
      How can serious people talk about negative prices?

      - Igor Ivanovich wrote to the government, offering to increase prices in the domestic market. smile laughing
  4. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) April 23 2020 17: 10
    -1
    Of course, the Kremlin is unlikely to declare war on Saudi Arabia and especially the United States, but it is quite a “working option” to support the Yemenite Hussites in their struggle against Saudi invaders.

    The withdrawal of the Saudis from the market right now is a salvation for the shale. Nobody will do this, because the Hussites are an Iranian topic, and they are eastern people, they know how to stretch pleasure. See how the shale industry is turning into nothing.
    I can’t stop wondering what you write about, there’s sure to be a “working option” on how to make Americans nice and what’s characteristic of the hands of Russians. winked
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 24 2020 07: 36
      -2
      Yes, yes, each about his own. wassat
  5. shadow Offline shadow
    shadow April 23 2020 22: 42
    -1
    But is it that Russian oil is heavy and Saudi oil is light, as is oil shale?
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) April 27 2020 19: 53
      +2
      The Saudis have different oil, like the Russian Federation. KSA has 5 export brands, the Russian Federation - 6. And many of ours are more expensive than Brent. Due to higher quality.
      But the USA has only a light one.
    2. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) April 27 2020 20: 00
      +2
      In general, if anyone is tired of the illiterate belittling of our oil, I advise you to read it.

      http://geoenergetics.ru/2020/03/31/realnaya-neft-mnogoobraznee-birzhevoj/
  6. Natan bruk Online Natan bruk
    Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) April 23 2020 22: 51
    -4
    Yes, it remains only to hope for the Hussites. Well, to Yellowstone.
    1. RusDon Offline RusDon
      RusDon (Igor) April 25 2020 10: 55
      0
      Dreaming is not forbidden, etc.