Will the pandemic make China and Russia real allies?

Recent reports from Washington confirm the worst fears about US intentions, using the global COVID-19 epidemic as an excuse to sharply aggravate an already extremely difficult relationship with China. This, in fact, is about starting a new war. Trading - at least.

However, Russia's interest in this case lies precisely in the fact that such a turn of events could force the Celestial Empire to finally and seriously decide on the choice of further allies and partners, both tactically and strategically. Is it possible in this case, a sharp rapprochement between Beijing and Moscow, under what conditions can it take place, and what prospects does it promise? Let's try to figure it out.

And he really knows how ...

Speaking to reporters in the White House, his head stunned the audience news that he is seriously considering the possibility of a complete break with such difficulty the “first phase” of the trade agreement concluded with China on January 15 this year. Like, if they don’t diligently and regularly buy everything that we intend to give them (first of all, energy), I’ll take it and tear it apart! And after that, "I will do what I know best" ... In the lips of Donald Trump, this seemingly abstract warning sounds truly ominous. Oh, that he is best able (and just loves!) To do, the current American president during his tenure has already shown the whole world. And continues to demonstrate. On the eve, for example, Trump ordered the US Navy to "open fire to defeat" on Iranian patrol boats - if they decide to "get" the brave guys under a star-striped flag. That’s what mankind is desperately lacking now, is the Third World War, into which any mess in the Persian Gulf will most likely outgrow ... As for China in particular, there is no doubt that the leader of the United States intends to continue the same thing about him policies sanctions, draconian duties, and all the other "charms" that together constitute what is called the "trade war" around the world. However, there are very strong suspicions that this time things will not be limited to the usual and far from gentlemanly set. Too high a degree anti-Chinese sentiments are now inflated - both in the United States itself and in the camp of its allies. In the heat of the most unceremonious and provocative rhetoric addressed to the Celestial Empire, as well as in the invention of ways, as it would be more painful to “injure” and “punish”, today everyone is competing - from US congressmen to American housewives. Lawsuits, various “investigations” and extremist appeals are not far from the declaration of war!

Especially zealous in this field is the top of Washington’s political establishment, beginning with the same Trump and Mike Pompeo, who produces anti-Chinese demarches, practically without stopping. On the eve, for example, he tried to report on the leadership of the PRC as boys, demanding from them "to immediately ensure the safety of all viral laboratories", which are "numerous" in the Middle Kingdom, according to the head of the State Department. The same Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who, apparently, is slightly “moved” on anti-Russian restrictions, and certainly “hellish,” is rushing with another idea today - to arrange a “sanction hell” for China, because he, you see, “ is the state sponsor of global pandemics. ” This is similar to the proclamation of Iran as the "sponsor of world terrorism." The Senate leader also has one more remarkable “know-how”: simply refuse to pay Beijing that cosmic amount (at least a trillion dollars), which he has the full right to claim, being the largest holder of US government bonds. "Throw" these "damned commies" - and that's the end! Truly a purely American decision - as "elegant" as "legal". At the same time, openly anti-Chinese positions are beginning to take, in addition to the United States itself, and an increasing number of their most faithful allies from the "Anglo-Saxon world", and not only from it. British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab has already stated that there can be no talk of a "return to the old economic relations with China." Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison criticized China and WHO "indulging" him, demanding an "independent investigation" is not clear what. Gerd Müller, Minister of Economic Cooperation and Development of Germany, joined the common chorus of “accusers” ... True, the cautious Merkel quickly shut her mouth, but clarified right away that “the issue is being studied.” In Sweden, all Confucius institutes and schools are closing down, all of a sudden recognized as "tools for brainwashing by the Chinese Communists." The lawsuits against Beijing “for the coronavirus” were discussed in Israel and Germany ...

What will choose in China?

However, and without coronavirus reasons to “roll out” the next claims of the Celestial Empire, its haters will have a whole heap. Take at least the same Hong Kong. Taking advantage of the situation, Beijing began to restore order there. In particular, they arrested one and a half dozen particularly violent "activists" accused of organizing riots that rocked Hong Kong last year for several months. The decision is most likely the right one, especially considering the fact that the unemployment rate in this region during the 1st quarter of 2020 has risen to the highest level in 9 years. It may even happen without instigators, and even if there are any ... The United States and Great Britain immediately rose in protest, reproaching China, as usual, for “infringement and oppression”, “violation of democracy and human rights”, as well as other egregious “sins” ". Beijing, in response, traditionally advised not to poke your nose out of business. Washington is also concerned about the increasing activity of the PLA in the South China Sea. While the American sailors pokolit wallowing in cockpits, turned into floating nurseries of coronavirus aircraft carriers, the Chinese comrades conduct exercises and even seem to drown someone. In the USA, they scream with might and main about "illegal territorial claims being implemented under the guise of a pandemic." All this is in support of the thesis that sanctions would be ready, and there would always be a reason. At the same time, one more important detail should be noted - an increasingly prominent place in xenophobic demarches, “conspiracy theories” and direct accusations made from the West is not even as conspiratorial as a purely political component. The Communist Party of China and its leadership, socialist ideology, the social system of the Celestial Empire, whose competition in the real crisis and critical situation the “collective West” lost not only shamefully, are declared the main “center of evil” and “the source of threat to the whole world”. as they say, with a crushing score.

Already today it is becoming quite clear that China will have a clear choice. In the first case, he will have to “obey” the United States and its allies, repent “kneel down” and admit his own non-existent guilt, not only taking the burden of moral responsibility for the worldwide tragedy of COVID-19 and the eternal stigma of the “source of the pandemic,” but and liability is quite material in the form of certain “compensations”. Then, quite possibly, the West will “graciously” descend to declaring the coronavirus “the result of the tragic mistake of the Chinese Communists and the imperfection of their state system”. In the second version, Beijing is accused of deliberately and maliciously “infecting humanity”, no matter how absurd and unproven it sounds. The choice, frankly, is not too attractive. With any development of the situation, the Celestial Empire is waiting for colossal economic costs in economic terms, and in political terms - a serious “loss of rights”. As well as the loss at the international level of all those authority and influence that China, sparing no effort, gained for decades. Where not to throw - everywhere a wedge. There is, however, a third probability. Its implementation is possible only if Beijing finally decides to break with the West as the main strategic partner, dare to cross out the half-century history of normalizing relations with the United States, dating back to the time of the presidency of Richard Nixon, and begin to defend its interests for real, without looking back at possible and even inevitable costs in this case. The risk, of course, is enormous - the mere loss of the American market (even if only temporary) will strike a blow cleaner than the coronavirus in the Chinese economy. However, firstly, as it was said above, the tremendous damage to the Celestial Empire cannot be avoided even with the most capitulating position, and, secondly, right now, speaking against the extremely weakened and fragmented pandemic of the “collective West”, China will to have chances of success that he did not have before. They are unlikely to appear if this “window of opportunity” is missed. At the same time, however, Beijing cannot do without reliable allies.

Already, representatives of upstream companies, whose complaints flow to the White House and prompted Donald Trump to yet another threat of a trade agreement, are pushing in their allegations that China, which was trying to buy more than $ 52 billion in US oil and LNG, instead of this "imports Russian and Saudi energy." But this would be the very right decision! It would be from such a move — a reorientation from American deliveries, at least of oil and gas — to Russian, that it would be worth starting. It’s time for the Chinese comrades to decide whether to support the US sanctions against Russian oilmen, risking to meet the next restrictions themselves, or once and for all to put an end to this humiliating and ruinous practice for all. Our country will be able to provide China with more than the same energy or agricultural products. It is only necessary to take an appropriate decision in Beijing, and in Moscow it will be supported, there is no doubt. Such a step can be saving for the economies of both countries - only Chinese comrades categorically should not try to observe their own profit, even if it’s happened more than once at the expense of a partner. To really “squeeze” the United States, to force them to sit at the negotiating table on completely equal terms, can only be done by delivering a tangible blow to the patient himself - the financial, dollar hegemony established by the Fed in the world. Will it be possible to do this if Beijing and Moscow join forces, and even connect smaller countries that are also not satisfied with the current geopolitical “alignment”? It is impossible to give an unambiguous forecast here, but there would definitely be a chance of success.

The above is by no means an attempt to “predict” or prescribe recipes to solve world problems. However, it is difficult to deny that right now the whole conjuncture of world events directly pushes Russia and China to such a decision.
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) April 23 2020 09: 28
    Will the pandemic make China and Russia real allies?

    - Personally, I didn't even read anything ... - If Russia wants to perish ... - then let it continue to "truly" both "befriend" and "alliance" with China ... - As soon as fate neither teaches Russia (or rather, the Russian leadership) ... - and whatever misfortunes (and whatever infection) came from that, from the Chinese side and continue to come to Russian soil ... - no, everything is still ... - It seemed that everyone in Russia was already sick of this Chinese coronavirus ... - what else ... - No ... - we need to be "friends", we must continue to grovel in front of China ...
    - Yes, Russia will always survive; even when the border between Russia and China will be tightly closed and there will not even be any communication between Russia and China ... - Nothing terrible will happen to Russia ... - Russia will feed itself, and will provide itself with everything in the technological and in the technical and manufacturing spheres ... -And this is what China will do without Russia ...- this is a very, very big question ...
  2. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) April 23 2020 11: 43
    ... this Chinese coronavirus already got everyone in Russia.

    This virus was developed in the USA in 2015. This is already known to all. And the United States was crammed with many military bio-laboratories around Russia, and no one knows what infection they can release from there. It is necessary to urge the United States to open these biological laboratories for international audit.
    And if the United States prints and issues 4 trillion new dollars, it will depreciate dollars around the world and thereby reduce US debt to the world. And China and Japan will suffer the biggest losses, as they have the most dollars. It's time to drop dollars, as they will soon become a junk asset. When they issue as many company shares as they already have, then they depreciate 2 times. Same thing with the dollars!
  3. Xuli (o) Tebenado April 23 2020 11: 51
    ... if Beijing and Moscow join forces ...

    The population of China is 10 times the population of Russia. If we talk about the development of the economy, then we need to operate with twelve-digit numbers. What Russia may be interested in China? - close and inexpensive energy resources. But the Saudis have now shown that they can sell oil at $ 10 per barrel. Russia also has wood and rare earth metals for sale. This ends the Chinese interest in Moscow, because as a market there are richer and more numerous regions.

    So why does a panda need a mouse mouse?
    1. Observer2014 Offline Observer2014
      Observer2014 April 24 2020 00: 22
      So why does a panda need a mouse mouse?

      AND I! And we are KaAK! Break everyone! am
      laughing Now we will reset to zero according to the "law" IiiiiiI how we will break everyone. tongue
  4. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) April 23 2020 11: 58
    It happened before. Several times, and since 14 years. Like, friends forever.

    But in the end, China simply withdrew its investment from Russia. What the hell? We sell wood, gas, aircraft engines, and everything else to him.
    Well, at least the oil and gas of our oligarchs continued to buy.
  5. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) April 23 2020 13: 39
    People who do not understand write in the comments that they will devour both of them individually. China without the support of Russia, despite the enormous size of the economy, will drop again to the state of a third-rate power. There are recipes for this: withdrawal from it of production, embargoes and duties, and much more ....
    1. Xuli (o) Tebenado April 23 2020 18: 14
      The Norushka mouse will wander around the desert for another 20 years, like one ancient people. Moses-2 is still in the juice itself, and in 2042 he will be only 90 :))
      And the panda does not see the mouse point-blank and will cope with its problems itself.
  6. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker April 23 2020 20: 22
    Putin is a weakling in this matter! Kazakh vodka, Belarusian solo! "Let's drink to the Motherland, drink to STALIN, drink and pour again!" I am in charge of this question with China. Just let me steer !?
    1. Observer2014 Offline Observer2014
      Observer2014 April 24 2020 00: 28
      Quote: steel maker
      Putin is a weakling in this matter! Kazakh vodka, Belarusian solo! "Let's drink to the Motherland, drink to STALIN, drink and pour again!" I will "resolve" this issue with China. Just let me steer !?

      Well, the fact that the "solo" is Belarusian is clear to everyone.
      What about China there? I really want to see.
  7. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
    Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) April 23 2020 23: 20
    What is the difference, who, in the current situation of the Russian Federation, will have an appendage, China or the West?
  8. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) April 24 2020 00: 06
    China and Russia will never be true allies. In the new world under construction, the Russian Federation and China will lead different currency zones and will be competitors. And since both the countries themselves and the currency zones will border, many conflict situations of varying degrees of tension await us.
    Moreover, China does not expect bright prospects. In recent years, the Chinese have become accustomed to constantly improving living standards. And China, like any other country with a large trade turnover with the United States and a large surplus in this trade, is going to have a hard time. I have repeatedly written about this here. China supported domestic demand due to this surplus, directing a significant part of it for these purposes. The surplus will end soon. At the same time, the level of export will fall and, as a result, the level of production. China simply will not be able to maintain the infrastructure created in recent years. For example, high-speed railways, large airlines. Like around the world, tourism will drop dramatically.
    But there is a high probability that the United States will throw China for a lot of money. Everyone has heard Trump's initial raids on China for his allegedly guilty of the fact that the United States suffered wild losses from a coronavirus. But few people understand what all this can turn into.
    It may well be that a state court will convict China and seize all of China's property, which will be in US jurisdiction. This is a real estate in the USA, and financial assets, including the US Treasury. Physically, these securities can be anywhere, but they remain the property of the United States and there will be no payments on them. I have heard estimates that China’s losses will be more than $ 10 trillion.
    If anyone doubts, I advise you to recall the fate of our buildings in the United States. There was not even a court decision on them. And the US needs, one way or another, to nullify its public debt.
    In addition, I quote Kissinger from a recent interview. Especially highlighted part. On the one hand, several countries will come together and decide who, how and in what form to exist, without bothering with existing legislation. Well, here Russia will be among those who have a casting vote. On the other hand, the United States, taking the last opportunity to snatch someone else's and not get in the face, will surely snatch. Kissinger talks about this in direct text.

    Nations survive and prosper on the basis of the belief that their institutions (institutions) can foresee the impending disaster, overcome it, and then restore stability. When the Covid-19 pandemic is over, institutions in many countries will be sentenced: "You failed." How fair this sentence is, does not matter. The main thing is this: the world will never again be the same as before the coronavirus. And disputes about the past are useless today - they only prevent us from doing what should be done in the future.

    So, no one will have the right to appeal. And the actions of Nabiullina, again buying Western securities, can hardly be called anything other than sabotage.
    1. Xuli (o) Tebenado April 24 2020 04: 54
      I have repeatedly written about this here.

    2. Accidentally Offline Accidentally
      Accidentally April 24 2020 07: 21
      You and Gorenina (91) are the most sober-minded people, but nothing is said about the rest ......... there are no other words in the arsenal.
  9. Potapov Offline Potapov
    Potapov (Valery) April 24 2020 10: 00
    They got it. As children. So far, the largest global partners - China-USA, nothing will happen. Is it hard to guess?