Confusing traces: what a distracting maneuver “Academician Chersky” conceived


The Odyssey of Academician Chersky continues. The pipe-laying vessel once again changed its route, indicating the Egyptian Port Said in the Mediterranean Sea as a new target, despite the fact that they were waiting for it in the Baltic. It is understood that all this is a "cunning plan", the purpose of which is to deceive the US Treasury Department, without giving the "naive" Americans the opportunity to impose sanctions against our only ship capable of completing the Nord Stream-2.


Yes, this scenario seems to be the most likely, but still consider alternative ones.

Completion


This is by far the most realistic scenario, according to which the Academician Chersky will eventually reach the Baltic, undergo re-equipment and complete the remaining small section of the pipeline. In his favor says that in the English Channel the vessel is already waiting for the Akademik Pashin tanker, and the sea tugboat Nikolay Chiker has approached the coast of Portugal. Apparently, they should refuel the pipelayer and the accompanying watchman “Yaroslav the Wise”, who will then proceed through the Danish Straits to the Baltic, where they will be met by the ships of the Baltic Fleet.


Such a slow pace can be explained by the fact that it is better to carry out construction in the summer, when the sea is calmer, and this year Nord Stream-2 is not especially needed by anyone. As soon as Akademik gets to work, he and the entire Gazprom Fleet participating in the completion will be subject to US sanctions.

Distracting maneuver


A slightly less realistic option is that the Akademik Chersky will not complete the gas pipeline, but the Fortuna and Defender pipe-laying barges. The problem of the lack of a dynamic positioning system on them can be solved in two ways. The first is a rigid fixation by their system of anchors or a hitch with a vessel having a similar system. Analysts of The Jamestown Foundation, an organization that is now undesirable in Russia, wrote about this scenario.

The second is to make concessions from the Danish side with the help of Gazprom’s European partners, so that they give permission to lay the pipes to Fortune and Defender. The wanderings of Academician Chersky in this case are an informational background designed to divert attention and at the same time put pressure on Copenhagen.

Egypt and Syria


The Eastern Mediterranean is currently the focus of new energy projects. Rosneft is very interested in the Zohr gas field in Egypt, and the Russian authorities are interested in the Syrian oil and gas shelf. Theoretically, the "Academician Chersky" could be useful there.

Freezing


This is the most conspiracy theological theory. According to it, having completed the retrofitting in one of the Baltic ports of Russia, Akademik Chersky will turn around and head back to the Far East, and Nord Stream-2 itself will be put on a long pause. Today, such a scenario may seem wild, but everything is somewhat more complicated than it seems at first glance.

Russia, with its critical dependence on oil and gas revenues, has found itself in a real systemic crisis. Oil quotes of recent days cause a rash. Black gold prices have become negative, it is clear that this is temporary, but this indicates a global energy crisis. It is necessary to remove from the market 20, or even 30 million barrels per day, in order to bring the cost of the barrel to an acceptable level.

Earlier, Russia was forced to agree to reduce production by 2,5 million barrels, taking on the largest quotas, judging by the level of early March. But now the situation is such that these volumes will have to be doubled, which means de facto the cessation of Russian oil exports taking into account domestic consumption. We must either fight without fools with the United States and its allies, or somehow re-negotiate with them.

In this situation, pausing the completion of the Nord Stream-2 pipeline could be a bargaining chip for a United States agreement to reduce oil production to remove the required 20 million barrels from the market. Of course, the United States will not bind itself with any legally binding agreements, especially since cartel conspiracies are prohibited there at the legislative level. In the event that global growth begins economics American shale producers will simply increase production volumes, which will be difficult for countries limited by quotas under OPEC +.

If this assumption is true, then Nord Stream-2 will really turn into a real long-term construction, directly dependent on the fate of the oil agreements. Then they will start completing it only after normalizing the situation in the “black gold” market, when all players will be able to start increasing production. It is possible that we will soon hear a lot of expert assessments about why so far you can’t rush into Nord Stream 2. What for? After all, we “replayed” Ukraine by concluding a transit agreement for 5 years, and gas consumption is declining due to economic problems in Europe.
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  1. 123 Offline
    123 (123) April 21 2020 12: 30
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    Having frankly lost the trade war between the USA and Saudi Arabia, Russia was forced to agree to reduce production by 2,5 million barrels against 0,5, taking on the largest quotas, judging by the level of early March. But now the situation is such that these volumes will have to be doubled, which means de facto the cessation of Russian oil exports taking into account domestic consumption. We must either fight without fools with the United States and its allies, or somehow re-negotiate with them.

    This thesis is repeated from article to article almost verbatim. A reasoned discussion of this issue is not of interest to the author.
    Stubbornness ...
    1. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 21 2020 12: 43
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      Arguments have long been said. And yes, I will repeat as much as I see fit.
      1. 123 Offline
        123 (123) April 21 2020 12: 45
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        Donkey stubbornness is for patriots who refuse to acknowledge a fait accompli.

        Is there a fait accompli?

        Arguments have long been said.

        Really? belay Where can I get to know them? what

        And yes, I will repeat as much as I see fit.

        No doubt. yes Reread the comment above. hi
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    2. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) April 21 2020 12: 48
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      Quote: 123
      A reasoned discussion of this issue is not of interest to the author.

      What are the arguments !? The author is painting. He doesn’t care that 16 million unemployed have appeared in the USA in a month. Most importantly, Russia will lose 30 billion of foreign revenue. The Americans have 10 times more losses, the Chinese 20 times, but they are giants of the GDP, where our “all-inclusive” equals them ...
      1. 123 Offline
        123 (123) April 21 2020 12: 51
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        A little correction, already 22 million. Time goes by, everything changes. hi
      2. Marzhecki Offline
        Marzhecki (Sergei) April 21 2020 13: 03
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        And what do you care about American or Chinese unemployed? You think about the Russians. No, I understand that you are paid for comments, you will not be left without work. wink
        1. 123 Offline
          123 (123) April 21 2020 13: 43
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          And what do you care about imaginary American and Saudi victories? Let’s compare, compare, with whom how things are going, who and what gained as a result, what lost. We get the overall objective picture. yes Or is it too complicated for you? Is it easier to crow about polymers?
          It’s not worth worrying about you in terms of work. no Each show should have its own “Kovtun”. sad
          1. Marzhecki Offline
            Marzhecki (Sergei) April 21 2020 16: 07
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            The problem with you and your like-minded people is that you don’t understand the simple thing: the collective Kovtun is you.
            1. 123 Offline
              123 (123) April 21 2020 16: 20
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              To hear from you moralizing about understanding simple things is funny. I look forward to the next article reflecting on the possible use of the pipe layer in Greenland. After all, after a maximum of 2 days, it turns out that Akademik Chersky is not going to build any pipeline in the Mediterranean Sea, even Gibraltar will not pass. Will have to compose new tales.
              1. Marzhecki Offline
                Marzhecki (Sergei) April 21 2020 18: 27
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                Each of your comments is a classic of distortion and substitution of concepts. You are an ordinary demagogue.
                1. 123 Offline
                  123 (123) April 21 2020 18: 40
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                  Classic? So take notes, do not lose the opportunity. hi
                  1. Marzhecki Offline
                    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 21 2020 18: 51
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                    That was not a compliment. no
                    1. 123 Offline
                      123 (123) April 21 2020 18: 58
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                      And that was not friendly advice. winked
      3. Bitter Offline
        Bitter (Gleb) April 22 2020 09: 04
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        The Americans have 10 times more losses, the Chinese - 20 times.

        Apparently, Russia has nothing to lose, they have long been there where the Americans and the Chinese can lose everything and lose. Therefore, in Russia, indicators can only grow or remain stable, stand still.
        1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
          Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) April 22 2020 14: 56
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          No, where we were - we’ll stay there. For they seemingly wiped us out of revenge, well ... and we set up our corner. If only the Old Man with his smuggling were not confused in our economy ...
          1. Bitter Offline
            Bitter (Gleb) April 22 2020 23: 42
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            And as without him, he is practically a member of the family and he also wants to eat bread and butter more often. laughing drinks
    3. kelte Offline
      kelte (rustem) April 21 2020 14: 03
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      Donkeys are those who made the decision not to reduce the production of 0,5 million, as the Arab partners had suggested in their time, the logic of their thinking can be understood only on the basis that they are real donkeys! If they had agreed then, the reduction in prices and production could be carried out gently and in stages. Now let the state. Sechin pumps his oil at a cost of $ 3 if he finds someone to sell!
      1. Marzhecki Offline
        Marzhecki (Sergei) April 21 2020 14: 07
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        Oh voice of reason. Thanks. hi
      2. 123 Offline
        123 (123) April 21 2020 14: 13
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        Donkeys are those who made the decision not to reduce the production of 0,5 million, as the Arab partners had suggested in their time, the logic of their thinking can be understood only on the basis that they are real donkeys!

        Maybe so, or maybe donkeys are those who think so. A decrease of 0,5 million would not lead to anything. This reduction would be replaced by the Americans, in fact no reduction was obtained. The only result is a decrease in Russia's market share and its replacement with shale oil.

        If they had agreed then, the reduction in prices and production could be carried out gently and in stages.

        It was possible to reduce production softly and in stages if all the producing countries participate in the agreement and all sorts of crazy Bedouins do not try to fill the market with cheap oil.

        Now let the state. Sechin pumps his oil at a cost of $ 3 if he finds someone to sell!

        You won’t believe it until he succeeds. yes I'm not sure about the rest. no
        PS With the debut of you. drinks I looked at the profile .... Is it true that your coronavirus is prohibited?
      3. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
        Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) April 21 2020 16: 06
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        Quote: kelte
        Sechin pumps his oil at a cost of $ 3

        You compliment Sechin. They didn’t even notice !!!
        Russia is pumping oil through pipes on long-term contracts, practically without going to futures and the spot market, which is sausage-sausage. We put oil to the threshold in the right amount at the right time, strictly under multi-year contracts. The price, yes, is jumping, but in the coming years we will be supplying oil to whom.
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  2. Alexei Ushakov Offline
    Alexei Ushakov (Alexey Ushakov) April 21 2020 12: 31
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    Having frankly lost the trade war between the USA and Saudi Arabia, Russia was forced to agree to a reduction in production by 2,5 million barrels against 0,5.

    - I give my Wishlist as desired?)) Where does this come from? All unanimously "goguchut" that all remained with their own. Only Marzhetsky Seryozha found incomprehensible figures and gives out for reality. )))
    1. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 21 2020 12: 43
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      Quote: Alexey Ushakov
      Where does this come from? All unanimously "goguchut" that everyone remained with their own. Only Marzhetsky Seryozha found incomprehensible figures and gives out for reality. )))

      Alex, grow up.
    2. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) April 21 2020 12: 50
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      Dreams Dreams. How sweet they are! Russia, the "economy of the wisdom" ....
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    3. King3214 Offline
      King3214 (Sergius) April 21 2020 13: 05
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      This is a symbol of the author’s moronic faith in the "death of Russia." In general, I do not understand why such sectarians are generally published? After all, their "faith" is no better than faith in a "pasta monster." With the same set of "validity."
      1. Marzhecki Offline
        Marzhecki (Sergei) April 21 2020 13: 22
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        And where did you see what I wrote about the death of Russia? No need to ascribe to me your fantasies.
        1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
          Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) April 21 2020 16: 01
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          Quote: Marzhetsky
          ... what did I write about the death of Russia?

          You PATHOLOGICALLY talk about the defeats of Russia, not having the slightest idea about the real economy. Remained mentally in 1998.
          But since then the situation has changed a bit. Our elite from the creeping lackey of American officials has turned into a stubborn player in the world market. It began with Ossetia, then it was not allowed to turn Crimea into a world concentration camp, then the influence of Obama's PMC called ISIS was canceled, that the US military personnel had to take the place of ISIS. And we cannot lose significantly while the current elite is in power. For Russia is not only a producer, but also a consumer of the produced. In the gigantic crisis that is coming, only expensive branded husk will be sprinkled. The necessary - bread, buckwheat, pasta, meat, gasoline, light - will remain with us.
          1. Marzhecki Offline
            Marzhecki (Sergei) April 21 2020 16: 06
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            Who are you to judge what I know or don't know about economics?
            Let us return to the mentioned article about gas transit.

            https://topcor.ru/12306-5-let-i-40-mlrd-kubometrov-v-god-dlja-ukrainy-o-chem-molchat-putin-i-gazprom.html

            Here is your personal comment that clearly demonstrates the adequacy of understanding.

            Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) December 12, 2019 23:00

            Mriy, Mriy, Mriy. Gazprom did not conclude a single agreement in advance requiring transit through Ukraine. If the Bulgarians fuss about after a thrashing and throw the pipe into Serbia before the New Year, then there will be no problems at all. If prolonged, three months the Serbs will sit without gas, on fuel oil. Oil transit through Ukraine was extended for 10 years!
            And the North ... It will be a cold winter, they will spit on energy package-3. By the way, NEL, originating in the same place as OPAL, was not subjected to any restrictions, it pumps Gazprom gas through a Gazprom pipe. And NEL is the north of Germany and France, Holland and Britain.
            1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
              Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) April 21 2020 16: 16
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              Well, what am I wrong about? Only that the winter turned out to be warm, and additional volumes of gas were not required.
              Gazprom’s contract with Ukraine is unprofitable, but it lifted all arrests from Gazprom’s property in Europe. And this is under $ 100 billion. It was decided by the good Stockholm decision to pay 2 billion a year, which eliminated all Ukraine’s obligations to Gazprom, but left all Gazprom’s obligations to Ukraine, turned out to be cheaper than losing billions in the courts of many countries 5 times a year.
              Now LNG has fallen to $ 50 per thousand cubic meters. But at this price there are no buyers. A crisis. And Gazprom buyers MUST take, albeit minimally negotiated volume, the same 50 ye.
            2. 123 Offline
              123 (123) April 21 2020 16: 25
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              Who are you to judge what I know or don't know about economics?
              Let us return to the mentioned article about gas transit.

              The finest hour of a broken alarm clock? Surely at home, all the walls are printed with printed screenshots. laughing
  3. Nick Offline
    Nick (Nikolai) April 21 2020 12: 41
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    Russia, with its critical dependence on oil and gas revenues, has found itself in a real systemic crisis.

    Author, stop writing nonsense. They have repeatedly pointed out to you that the Russian budget does not have a critical dependence on oil and gas revenues. All oil and gas in the structure of the consolidated budget is about 21%. Your articles, from beginning to end, are a fiction of an inflamed brain that pretends you wishful thinking. Economics is not your thing. Alas and ah.
    1. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 21 2020 13: 08
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      Yes, yes, of course. smile We will certainly return to this topic in a few months, and I will poke you in your comments, do not hesitate.
      For people with short memory, let me remind you:

      https://topcor.ru/12306-5-let-i-40-mlrd-kubometrov-v-god-dlja-ukrainy-o-chem-molchat-putin-i-gazprom.html

      In this article, I wrote on what terms Gazprom would enter into a transit agreement with Ukraine long before signing, when people like you shouted that Gazprom would catch Ukraine by closing the valve.
      Everything turned out as I wrote. It turned out exactly the same with oil.
      I’m writing not for people like you, but for normal people who are capable of critical thinking. But this is not your horse. lol
      1. Nick Offline
        Nick (Nikolai) April 21 2020 13: 13
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        Quote: Marzhetsky
        ... Gazprom will conclude a transit agreement with Ukraine long before signing, when people like you screamed that Gazprom would catch Ukraine by closing the valve.

        I didn’t write such nonsense. Your trouble is that with persistence worthy of a better application, you wishful thinking.
        1. Marzhecki Offline
          Marzhecki (Sergei) April 21 2020 13: 21
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          Well, this is your personal opinion. I believe that I am right. You are not. I have cited my arguments more than once. Reality has confirmed them. You do not agree with this, these are your difficulties, not mine.
          I promise that we will certainly return to this topic again and verify the adequacy of your posts with the realities. tongue
        2. Marzhecki Offline
          Marzhecki (Sergei) April 21 2020 13: 28
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          By the way, I’m not too lazy, I brought here your personal comment to that article of mine.

          Nick (Nikolai) December 12, 2019 19:31
          Quote: Marzhetsky
          Quote: Nick
          Again, the author gives out the desired (he, probably, ukroshumer) for the real.

          Such comments say a lot about yourself.
          Your comments, as well as your articles, are speculations, fictions, assumptions, which are presented as fait accompli.

          How is it not written? You then oohali my article with the forecast, but it completely came true. How so?

          Word for word, does this lead you to any thoughts?
          1. Nick Offline
            Nick (Nikolai) April 21 2020 13: 33
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            Quote: Marzhetsky
            How is it not written? You then oohali my article with the forecast, but it completely came true. How so?

            Well, where are my words here that Gazprom will sue Ukraine? I told you that you wishful thinking.
            1. Marzhecki Offline
              Marzhecki (Sergei) April 21 2020 14: 05
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              You are hopeless.
          2. 123 Offline
            123 (123) April 21 2020 14: 34
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            How is it not written? You then oohali my article with the forecast, but it completely came true. How so?

            Even standing hours 2 times a day show the correct time. laughing
      2. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
        Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) April 21 2020 21: 05
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        Quote: Marzhetsky
        ... that Gazprom will freeze Ukraine by closing the valve

        Now another comedy is being played. Ukraine pledged to supply Slovakia between 2007 and 2013 with 13,5 billion cubic meters of gas. And the war with Gazprom, apparently, ruined the plans of invisible re-export. Naftogaz is now under a lawsuit of $ 5 billion for undelivered gas. The reverse is frozen, because all the "reverse" cubes are under arrest. And what do you tell poor Ukraine to do? Without a “reverse”, then? To bow to Gazprom? After another threat about a $ 17 billion lawsuit?
        Because the contract for transit 20-25 spelled out - all claims for 31-12-2019 are reset.
        Now - Naftogaz is on the verge of bankruptcy - because of Slovaks. Any lawsuit - Gazprom stops paying. And the Stockholm decision makers now - not to kindness.
  4. Sergey Latyshev Offline
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) April 21 2020 12: 58
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    Operation Y".
    So that no one guessed where the money had sailed away!
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  6. kriten Offline
    kriten (Vladimir) April 21 2020 14: 45
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    Nord Stream-2 will remain a monument to the fact that the pipe-breaking of GDP and its minions proved to be evidence that they have already lost the ability to strategic analysis. Their actions began to bring huge losses to the country.
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) April 21 2020 18: 43
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      Nord Stream-2 will remain a monument to the fact that the pipe-breaking of GDP and its minions proved to be evidence that they have already lost the ability to strategic analysis. Their actions began to bring huge losses to the country.

      Bravo. good I suppose you probably know what the mistake was and how to act correctly. yes Do not share your wisdom?
    2. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) April 21 2020 21: 09
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      Quote: kriten
      Nord Stream 2 will remain a monument to GDP

      Only now the virus has deprived the European Commission of money. The economy has collapsed, and now Germany will decide how to get gas - through SP-2 or through a bunch of intermediaries.
      1. Marzhecki Offline
        Marzhecki (Sergei) April 22 2020 07: 30
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        Sounds not very encouraging to Gazprom, no?
        1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
          Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) April 22 2020 14: 53
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          Now for everyone it does not sound encouraging. After all, not only Gazprom - Pension Funds around the world are going downhill. Which have investments in securities. And these are Norwegians, and American, and our non-state. State budgets are pouring not childishly.
          Gazprom is a little easier - 60% of its consumers are inside Russia. 600 billion cubic meters inward, 300 with a little outward. And domestic demand, mainly power plants and heating, is not going anywhere. Another piece of news today is that the price on the spot market in Britain has caught up with the price of Gazprom’s gas at the well.
  7. kelte Offline
    kelte (rustem) April 21 2020 14: 48
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    The Americans cannot replace Russia, it is technically impossible (they won’t find so many tankers). And about the virus - yes, we don’t have it, believe it or not! If you have citizens on self-isolation, then we have a country, they simply do not let anyone in and that's it.
  8. Alexander Semenov (Alexander Semenov) April 21 2020 21: 27
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    Yes, there is no maneuver, stupidly there is nowhere to go for re-equipment ... everything is occupied by defense orders.
  9. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 22 2020 07: 36
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    Quote: Oyo Sarkazmi
    Gazprom’s contract with Ukraine is unprofitable, but it lifted all arrests from Gazprom’s property in Europe.

    Oh, new theses:

    Gazprom’s contract with Ukraine is unprofitable.

    This is progress. hi
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) April 22 2020 15: 13
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      If the price of pumping is tied to the price of gas - Naftogaz is kirdyk.
  10. Petya Bystrov Offline
    Petya Bystrov (Petya Bystrov) April 22 2020 18: 35
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    The problem of the lack of a dynamic positioning system on them can be solved in two ways. The first is a rigid fixation by their system of anchors or a hitch with a vessel having a similar system.

    laughing
  11. Sasha Phil Offline
    Sasha Phil (Alexander) April 22 2020 19: 13
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    "Yaroslav the Wise" after entering Cape Town went back - on duty to the Indian Ocean.