US Media: Stocks of Cheap Russian Oil Running Out

April 19 2020 29

At a time when the situation with the oil in the USA was frankly difficult, American analysts decided to “inspire” their compatriots with a “prediction” that stocks of cheap and affordable Russian oil were running out. To speculate on the "inefficiency" of the Russian oil industry and the "bleak" future economics Russia, decided the American private intelligence and analytical company Stratfor.

According to the forecast, in the next 10-20 years, Russian oil will certainly rise in price. Indeed, to maintain the existing level of exports, oil will need to be extracted in hard-to-reach places.

Russia can adjust its budget so that falling oil prices do not greatly affect government spending. However, it will be difficult and unlikely to diversify the economy, abandoning reliance on raw materials potential

- consider in Stratfor.

According to the Americans, readily available oil has long been the foundation of the Russian economy. But the reserves of such oil are depleted. Therefore, Moscow needs to invest a lot of money in the production of hard-to-recover oil and gain a foothold in the promising Chinese market. In any case, the Russians will have to come to terms with the fact that "the glorious days of oil domination and high profits are coming to an end."

Stratfor suggests that the transition of Russian oil companies from the extraction of easily recoverable oil to the development of hard-to-recover reserves will coincide with a slowdown in demand for this raw material in the world. Tentatively, this will happen in 2040, which will harm the Russian state and society.

The development of fields in Western Siberia literally “revived” the Russian economy in the mid-2000s, coinciding with an increase in world oil demand. But by the 2030s, these deposits will begin to deplete. And the Russians will be forced to proceed to the development of hard-to-recover reserves in the Arctic, Eastern Siberia, the Caspian, Black and White Seas, as well as to start the production of shale oil, which in Russia is probably the most than anywhere else on the planet.

However, due to sanctions, Russia does not have the necessary Technology booty. So the Russians are not particularly "optimistic" about the transition from traditional to unconventional production.

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123

+6

April 19 2020 21: 13
The development of deposits in Western Siberia literally “revived” the Russian economy in the mid-2000s

Regular "experts"
The development took place a little earlier, in the 2000s it only continued.

Farman Salmanov

The first Samotlor well 1965.

Alyosha. Monument to the conquerors of Samotlor.

One of the historical events of our region is May 1965, when the R-1 exploration well produced the first Samotlor oil. Then the whole world spread over the sensational news - in the Soviet Union discovered a unique deposit of "black gold". That's what the foreign press wrote about this event in those years. N.New York, BusinessWeek Magazine, 1969: "The Russians claim that they have discovered the largest oil and gas reserves - more than in Kuwait and Venezuela ... New discoveries make the Soviet Union nation No. 1 in explored reserves ...", Says Natalya Vladimirovna. - The area of our field was struck by their imagination. Komsomol members of that time probably did not imagine how much our region would change.

Source: https://ugra-news.ru/article/30082018/72448/

The Americans of that time knew everything about it, can the "experts" rummage through the archives?
1. monman
  
  -1
  
  April 19 2020 22: 43
  
  123, do not confuse the exploration reserves of oil and the cost of extraction.
  Even the most-most Russian pros say that there is nothing to produce hard-to-reach oil - there is no technology. Even without sanctions, having bought equipment, the cost of oil sold should be about $ 70- $ 80. Is this possible with annual price drops and market expansion? The market can expand at any time due to Iran / Venezuela / Africa. Yes, the same US has not yet died out.
  So, the article is right -
  
  the transition of Russian oil workers from the extraction of easily recoverable oil to the development of hard-to-recover reserves will coincide with a slowdown in demand for this raw material in the world.
  
  And instead of waving a card, read about it yourself ...
  It’s not necessary with a saber, times have passed ....
  1. 123
    
    +6
    
    April 19 2020 23: 43
    
    Do not confuse exploration. Oil reserves and extraction cost.
    
    And I don’t confuse them. I simply said that deposits in Western Siberia were developed much earlier.
    
    Even the most-most Russian pros say that there is nothing to produce hard-to-reach oil - there is no technology.
    
    It could even be. Technology comes as needed. The choice whether to buy them abroad or to develop them yourself depends on the conditions. If it’s cheaper to buy, then they’ll buy it. They will not sell, so they will develop it themselves. This, of course, will take time, but they can do it. In Russia, not the Bedouins live. Science and industry are better developed. Its technology. usually get decently cheaper.
    
    Even without sanctions, having bought equipment, the cost of oil sold should be about $ 70- $ 80.
    
    Why $ 70- $ 80? Do you measure US costs? Equipment can produce themselves. It's cheaper. Production costs are less. Salaries are lower, electricity is cheaper, and so on.
    
    Is this possible with annual price drops and market expansion?
    
    With falling prices, no, impossible. The example of shale producers is quite illustrative. What do you mean by "market expansion" is not entirely clear. If the supply increases, then this, of course, does not contribute to the development of the industry.
    
    The market can expand at any time due to Iran / Venezuela / Africa. Yes, the same US has not yet died out.
    
    That's right, we have to negotiate. In this situation, in my opinion, the United States is largely to blame. You behave like a collective farm ...., in the sense of bestiality (I can’t write in another way, they’ll delete it). It is time to stop making up the navel of the earth and return to reality. Then, perhaps, it will turn out to be agreed so that it suits everyone. If not, I’m ready to personally cut an environmentally friendly cedar scoop for Texas oil workers, it’s useful to slurp the consequences from the cesspool.
    
    So the article is right -
    
    the transition of Russian oil workers from the extraction of easily recoverable oil to the development of hard-to-recover reserves will coincide with a slowdown in demand for this raw material in the world.
    
    The transition to hard-to-recover reserves has been going on for a long time, oil fountains are already like a fairy tale about ancient times with knights and dragons. It already coincided so much with deceleration and acceleration. I don’t see anything new. In addition, production is gradually shifting north and east. Yamal, Eastern Siberia. There are new deposits.
    
    It’s not necessary with a saber, times have passed ....
    
    Tell these comrades:
2. monman
  
  -4
  
  April 19 2020 22: 51
  
  You, 123, for educational program:
  Back in 2015 ...
  
  As the forum participants noted, no one is already optimistic that Russia will be able to maintain or even increase hydrocarbon production without involving difficult oil in the development. Hard-to-recover reserves (highly viscous, highly watered oil and low permeability reservoirs, as well as oil fields with a gas cap) today make up about half of the domestic raw material base - 14,5 billion tons (according to the State Commission for Mineral Reserves). And 6 billion are located in Western Siberia ....
  Today, oil companies continue to test various technologies for the development of TIZ throughout the country, but they extract only about 20 million tons of hard oil per year (4% of the total). The main reason - the development of such resources requires large investments in technology. The average current costs of Ugra companies for the production of one ton of hard-to-recover oil are almost twice as high as in the development of traditional fields.
  1. 123
    
    +2
    
    April 19 2020 23: 53
    
    You, 123, for educational program:
    Back in 2015 ...
    
    As the forum participants noted, no one is already optimistic that Russia will be able to maintain or even increase hydrocarbon production without involving difficult oil in the development. Hard-to-recover reserves (highly viscous, highly watered oil and low permeability reservoirs, as well as oil fields with a gas cap) today make up about half of the domestic raw material base - 14,5 billion tons (according to the State Commission for Mineral Reserves). And 6 billion are located in Western Siberia ....
    
    What is educational program? I did not see a new word. This is not news for us.
    
    Today, oil companies continue to test various technologies for the development of TIZ throughout the country, but they extract only about 20 million tons of hard oil per year (4% of the total). The main reason - the development of such resources requires large investments in technology. The average current costs of Ugra companies for the production of one ton of hard-to-recover oil are almost twice as high as in the development of traditional fields.
    
    Absolutely. They prefer to get what is easier to get. If you noticed "back in 2015 ....." 5 years have passed, but there is no decrease in production, somewhere "respected" experts were mistaken. Don't you think they are saying what they want to hear from them? In my opinion, such experts should be driven away with scruffy rags.
    In general, do not worry about us. Wanted a market? Please, eat on health.
    Hello Texas unemployed.
    1. canopus61mail.ru
      
      -3
      
      April 20 2020 10: 14
      
      A year and a half ago, on December 18, 2018, the local "analyst genius" Vladimir Volkonsky wrote:
      
      "And you're still worried about oil prices. Lord, whatever we want with the Saudi prince, these prices will be." "Lord, should we be in sorrow? Look, let Donald Ibrahimovic worry, God bless him! (How lucky we were with the 45th President of America, it was not in vain that we invested in his promotion!). Everything will be fine!"
      
      You are not from the same team?
      1. 123
        
        +5
        
        April 20 2020 11: 24
        
        A year and a half ago, on December 18, 2018, the local "analyst genius" Vladimir Volkonsky wrote -
        
        Judging by the text, "Vladimir Volkonsky" may be your second incarnation. Volkonsky drank pills, missed the Konopus dose.
        
        "And you're still worried about oil prices. Lord, whatever we want with the Saudi prince, these prices will be." "Lord, should we be in sorrow?
        
        Did you hear from me something like this nonsense?
        
        Look, let Donald Ibrahimovic worry, God grant him health! (As we were lucky with the 45th president of America, it was not in vain that we invested in its promotion!). Everything will be fine!
        
        Oddly enough, there is some truth in this statement. He is more adequate in comparison with the old Hillary and is less prone to emotions. That's all. Apparently, in your language, "it's time to promote another." About the 45th read where or are you counting?
        
        Everything will be fine!
        
        I also hope so, because otherwise everything will be very bad. Only I put in these words a slightly different meaning. Unlike you, who overseas farmers will choose there, it is not so important for me to consider that the president of any country is omnipotent and everything depends on him, it’s just silly, because it’s not so.
        
        You are not from the same team?
        
        Do not forget to take the pills, let's listen to what your second self will say.
    2. monman
      
      -4
      
      April 20 2020 16: 36
      
      In general, do not worry about us. Wanted a market? Please, eat on health.
      
      The experiences are very different - yours and ours. Our experiences are hundreds of thousands of unemployed oil workers (I will definitely give them my regards!).
      The price of gas in the States where the faucet was closed is $ .18 per gallon (18 cents for 4 liters !!). WTI crude oil is currently trading at $ 14 a barrel.
      
      Crude oil overstocking is taking place in the world. The supply of raw materials exceeds the demand for it by 25 million barrels.
      
      Where will Russia store oil and where will it get the headstock if oil is not sold?
      
      So, did Russia want a market?
      
      Became a gas station?
      
      Please, eat on health.
      
      - only there will soon be nothing to eat, and there is nothing ....
      1. 123
        
        +3
        
        April 20 2020 17: 02
        
        The price of gas in the States where the faucet was closed is $ .18 per gallon (18 cents for 4 liters !!). WTI crude oil is currently trading at $ 14 a barrel.
        
        The price of oil - yes, I heard, it seems, by 20% today fell, the market is overstocked. Take a moment.
        As for the price of gasoline, we already talked about this, a different tax system.
        If you compare the price, you need to take into account taxes. We have 13% income, for real estate once a year within 1-2 thousand rubles, transport tax, this is individual, depending on the region and the car itself. For individuals, everything seems to be. Compare with yours.
        
        Where will Russia store oil and where will it get the headstock if oil is not sold?
        
        Watching from whom it is not for sale, ours is normally leaving for China.
        
        So, did Russia want a market?
        
        Became a gas station?
        
        Please, eat on health.
        
        only soon there will be nothing to eat, and there’s nothing ....
        
        We have already heard these tales about the gas station and the economy torn to shreds. There are no starving people on the streets and is not expected.
        How is it with you? They say the unemployed are already 22 million or lie unscrupulously?
        
        monman
        
        -3
        
        April 20 2020 19: 45
        
        They say the unemployed are already 22 million or lie unscrupulously?
        
        No, they don’t lie, something like that. There is no need to stand in line for benefits, all on the Internet. Note $ 10 per hour, $ 400 per week. The non-governmental organization ($$$ donations + volunteers) has a grandiose project, which they began to implement - food banks. Restaurants are given $$$, they cook, pack and give out. They have already distributed 3 million. But the restaurants support agricultural farmers with their orders. Plus provided with work. Cooking breakfast for schoolchildren is paid by the state, and parents go and pick up.
        On the site of an older brother, Military Review, an interesting article. Reset matrix ...
        
        https://topwar.ru/170307-perezagruzka-matricy-politicheskij-krizis-v-rossii.html
        
        Quote from her:
        
        It must be remembered that in the first Great Depression, when the capitalist world writhed in agony, the USSR-Russia prospered, we had an economic miracle. Thousands of new industrial and agricultural enterprises, health centers, schools, institutes, houses of creativity and culture, theaters were built. Large-scale infrastructure projects were implemented. Life has become better, life has become happier. The people enthusiastically built a beautiful new world, the civilization of the future. Then we were a self-sufficient system, and it was “violet” to us that the West was feeling bad. Now the opposite is true. The Russian Federation is the periphery of the capitalist world. Energy Power Station. With the top, which is used to living within the framework of the oil-dollar system and otherwise does not know how and does not want. If Europe and the United States will be hurt during the crisis, then peripherals like the Middle East and the Russian Federation will die.
        
        Your opinion, Sir ...!
        
        123
        
        +2
        
        April 20 2020 21: 59
        
        No, they don’t lie, something like that. There is no need to stand in line for benefits, all on the Internet. Note $ 10 per hour, $ 400 per week. The non-governmental organization ($$$ donations + volunteers) has a grandiose project, which they began to implement - food banks. Restaurants are given $$$, they cook, pack and give out. They have already distributed 3 million. But the restaurants support agricultural farmers with their orders. Plus provided with work. Cooking breakfast for schoolchildren is paid by the state, and parents go and pick up.
        
        The measures are quite reasonable, social support plus stimulating the economy. How effective they are, I cannot judge. On one pizza you can't stretch. As far as I remember, during the "Great Depression" roads were built. Apparently, they will also build infrastructure. It is inconvenient to live on one printing press, money will not work. Maybe it's time to build at least one high-speed railroad?
        
        It must be remembered that in the first Great Depression, when the capitalist world writhed in agony, the USSR-Russia prospered, we had an economic miracle. Thousands of new industrial and agricultural enterprises, health centers, schools, institutes, houses of creativity and culture, theaters were built. Large-scale infrastructure projects were implemented. Life has become better, life has become happier. The people enthusiastically built a beautiful new world, the civilization of the future. Then we were a self-sufficient system, and it was “violet” to us that the West was feeling bad.
        
        What are we callous, I was ashamed already .... almost. If you rewind a little back, in the country hunger and devastation, they themselves lived no better than there during the depression, and the West was violet, almost ..... they did not forget to land the troops on the territory of Russia. So the tear did not work out.
        
        Now the opposite is true. The Russian Federation is the periphery of the capitalist world. Energy Power Station. With the top, which is used to living within the framework of the oil-dollar system and otherwise does not know how and does not want.
        
        Is it more convenient for you to consider that this is a gas station? Raises self-esteem? Underestimate not afraid? Yes, yes, I already heard about the top. Only here is not the fact that the petrodollar system is eternal. Not tomorrow, of course, but it’s coming to this. You may have to learn to live differently.
        
        If Europe and the United States will be hurt during the crisis, then peripherals like the Middle East and the Russian Federation will die.
        
        But what about Southeast Asia? How will it hurt them or not?
        How painful the United States will be is not very interesting, economic relations are minimal, at the level of statistical error. They themselves had a hand in this. It is more difficult with Europe, but firstly, interdependence is falling, its share in foreign trade is declining, by the way, they also had a hand in it. Secondly, Europe without our resources will be completely painful.
        Well, since you are going to get sick, we will build a self-sufficient economy. What can I hope for you? Breadwinners .... Good luck to you there, in the "city on the hill", do not forget to rub the lanterns, the radiance is getting worse and worse. We will see from the outside how those who consider themselves the center of the universe will get out.
        In general, I'm not sure that the saying "while the fat dries, the thin one dies" is appropriate in this case. Still need to see who has accumulated more fat.
        As for the Middle East, they are dying now, and someone from a puddle actively helps them in this.
        What is the result? We are not accustomed to crises; we will see how those accustomed to comfort and well-fed life react to this.
        There is, of course, one thing BUTsmells of napalm. But we are preparing for this as far as possible. So, if anything, welcome, we will meet in the best traditions.
        PS I read the article by reference. Later.
        
        123
        
        +2
        
        April 20 2020 22: 23
        
        I read the article, it doesn’t pull on a masterpiece. I thought there was something serious there, and that ... schoolchildren are probably hooligans, they are bored with quarantine.
        Old song. Putin hid in a bunker, power crumbles, rebellious people are ready to sweep everything and, of course, liberals will come to power. But there’s nothing in sight.
        System stability testing in progress. The new government. Separately regions. Not all governors will pass this test; there are already dropouts. Central authority intervenes minimally. And while I do not see any special problems. Of course, there are nuances, but these are more likely exceptions to the rules. But we were told from every iron - Putin manually controls the country, if anything, everything will collapse .... It will not collapse.
        The intervention of the army, the introduction of a state of emergency and other things are simply not required, the situation is not so serious.
        Mentioning as sanity Lukashenko pretty amused. Or do you also think that there is no epidemic?
      2. Dear sofa expert.
        
        +2
        
        April 20 2020 18: 56
        
        .. The price of gas in the States where they closed the faucet is $ .18 per gallon (18 cents for 4 liters !!)
        
        C'mon)) An average of $ 3 per gallon. In Russia, even cheaper)
        And by the way, if there were once somewhere 18 cents, as you say, it is more likely from hopelessness, and not from great generosity. It is technically difficult to stop production, but there are no free vaults. So I had to sell minus. To brag about this in a highly proletarian way is stupid.
      3. Dear sofa expert.
        
        +1
        
        April 20 2020 18: 58
        
        ..Where will Russia store oil and where will it get grandmas if oil is not sold?
        
        In the pipeline, if that. Russia has them)
      4. Dear sofa expert.
        
        +2
        
        April 20 2020 19: 05
        
        ..only there will be nothing to eat soon, and there’s nothing ....
        
        In the US, 43% of the population lives poorly. There is really not enough money either for housing, or for transport, or for medical insurance, or for (for that matter) quality food. Fast food - if you think this is food, then eat on health! Sugar in your veins.
ilik54

-3

April 20 2020 08: 14

In the center of planet Earth there is a black hole, it is fighting a fusion reactor of fusion, as a result of which the Earth’s minerals are created. So, nothing will end and will not run out until this thermonuclear fusion reaction functions, and it functions until the black hole breaks into our Universe or closes, because the resonant oscillation that initiated its breakthrough into our The universe. The fact is that in this case, the Earth will resume everything as much as it needs for a full life cycle, that is, for its oscillatory process. In any case, these minerals themselves have not disappeared from the planet, they are all here, albeit in a different form and in another place.
1. 123
  
  0
  
  April 20 2020 11: 31
  
  Tin. Man, sit down. Calm down, some water or something, have a drink, maybe let it go.
  I'm afraid we are not yet ready to accept this theory. By the way, how much time is left before the final breakthrough into our universe? How much is left for us?
  1. ilik54
    
    0
    
    April 22 2020 04: 06
    
    And if you are not ready for this information, then hide behind the stove and cricket! This is not your mind.
    1. 123
      
      +1
      
      April 22 2020 12: 43
      
      Good, I will take it into account.
      But still, how much is left?
Alexander Semenov

-4

April 20 2020 11: 42

Stocks of readily available oil for no more than 8 years, for everything else, technology is needed ...
1. 123
  
  +1
  
  April 20 2020 17: 09
  
  Stocks of readily available oil for no more than 8 years, for everything else, technology is needed ...
  
  Heard already, 5 years ago they said the same thing. What's next?
  1. Alexander Semenov
    
    -4
    
    April 20 2020 17: 59
    
    Yes, nothing special, prepare the money and the mustache will be !? You can borrow from pensioners ..
    1. 123
      
      +2
      
      April 20 2020 18: 57
      
      Worry about your own.
Ivan Orlovsky

+5

April 20 2020 13: 34

The usual heresy of the American media. They are afraid to tell about themselves, about their conservation of wells, the loss of 6% of the economy and tens of millions of unemployed oil producers, and I understand them, but why lie?
boriz

+4

April 20 2020 16: 25

Stratfor, instead of crying over the prospects of the Russian Federation, it is better to take care of your present day. WTI dropped below $ 15. This is already 3 times lower than the cost. I am eager to hear about the bright prospects for "US oil".
1. Alexander Semenov
  
  -5
  
  April 20 2020 18: 00
  
  And what about Urals ....
  1. boriz
    
    +2
    
    April 20 2020 18: 27
    
    WTI - 12,16
    Brent - 26,9
    Urals - 21,54
boriz

+4

April 20 2020 21: 52

Meanwhile, US oil prices went negative.

https://www.finanz.ru/novosti/birzhevyye-tovary/cena-amerikanskoy-nefti-wti-rukhnula-nizhe-nulya-1029108758
andrew42

0

April 24 2020 11: 23

This oil has been "resurrecting" the Russian economy for 20 years. Can't resurrect everything. Maybe it shouldn't? Apparently, therefore, in our raw material appendage of the Western economy, the price of gasoline for Russian "natives" does not depend on the world conjuncture - all the lost profit is written off to the population and the domestic Russian market. It is understandable that one must have and pump “one's own” oil - this is the strategic security of the state, which many developed countries dream of. But for now, oil for Russia is like those tulips for Holland. Now the oligarchs' losses from the reduction in exports will once again be shifted to the domestic price of gasoline - for the patriotic "support of the oil industry," again "objectively justify" the rise in prices and inflation of the ruble. And about what prevented (and hinders) the development of high-tech production in the previous periods of "fat" and "average" oil prices - they will keep quiet about this. Because it was not "what" but "who" that interfered. Don't give our bourgeoisie any oil prices, at least 300 a barrel, these "market-oriented" monetarists will not develop any economy, either structurally or technologically. For they do not want to.