China may launch an operation against Taiwan in the near future


The world can expect a big geopolitical crisis at the end of this or at the beginning of 2021, writes Peter Jennings on the website of The Strategist at the Australian Institute of Strategic policy. Since coronavirus reduces the effectiveness of the military power of the West, the PLA may not have a better time to block the Taiwan Strait and act against the island itself, a military expert from the "green continent" believes.


The essence of the problem lies in the desire of the Chinese Communist Party to move out of the Covid-19 pandemic to strategically stronger positions in the Asia-Pacific region, surpassing the United States and its allies

- the text of his publication says.

The article claims that the Chinese military is now active in the waters and airspace around Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, as well as conducting active exercises in the South China Sea.

At the same time, the state-owned media in China, according to the author, incite aggressive nationalism. Thus, the Global Times, an English-language newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, published an editorial on April 4, which said:

If the Taiwan issue leads to a clash between China and the United States, then, regardless of its outcome, the island itself will pay an incredibly high price ...

Beijing’s attacks on Taiwan can hardly be considered anything new, the author writes, but in the first months of 2020, observers began to notice a significant increase in China’s military activity around Taiwan.

The ideological implication of what is happening is also important, the Australian expert believes. Beijing uses the coronavirus to position itself as the savior of much of the world, sending medical equipment and doctors, and loudly declaring that authoritarianism is better at dealing with the virus than Western democracy. Taiwan is now a successful liberal democracy. He showed that he was coping with the Covid-19 epidemic without resorting to repressive measures. And the Taiwanese themselves never supported unification with the mainland.

As a fundamentally different and successful model of political organization, Taiwan threatens the personal power of Chinese President Xi Jinping and the credibility of the CCP, continues Mr. Jennings. The new crisis around the Taiwan Strait will immediately push the region to a dangerous situation of the level of the Cold War, which will be a test of the authority of the United States as a Pacific power. There is no guarantee that the blockade will not fall into a major conflict involving the United States and its allies.

According to the author, the task of Washington, Canberra and their allies is to convincingly convey to the Chinese the thought of the destructiveness of such an escalation.
36 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.
I have an account? Sign in
  1. Potapov Offline Potapov
    Potapov (Valery) April 19 2020 09: 16
    +5
    Meli Emelya, your week ...
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) April 19 2020 09: 53
    0
    And, again, an unknown expert wrote something inarticulate ... Fu.
    1. Dear sofa expert. April 19 2020 17: 13
      -4
      Peter Charles Jennings is one of the MOST FAMOUS (!) Political News Journalists IN THE WORLD (!)
      Not knowing this - ABSOLUTE Ignorance!
      You do not have basic knowledge to participate in such forums.
      Your "Fu" remains with you.
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) April 19 2020 19: 07
        0
        To my shame, I must admit, the name Peter Charles Jenning does not mean anything to me either. request
        Please add to my overall assessment my ignorant Fu. yes
        1. The comment was deleted.
        2. Dear sofa expert. April 19 2020 21: 25
          0
          Well, maybe I confused that Peter with some namesake.
          1. 123 Offline 123
            123 (123) April 19 2020 21: 39
            +1
            It is not so important. The main thing is that I do not agree with the author’s conclusion. I doubt that the "bloodthirsty" Chinese are preparing for the assault on their English Channel. In my opinion, they have enough other concerns, there are more urgent tasks.
            1. Dear sofa expert. April 19 2020 21: 44
              0
              I did not argue about the content of the article. It was about the phrase:

              .. And, again, an unknown expert wrote something inarticulate ... Fu.
              1. 123 Offline 123
                123 (123) April 19 2020 21: 54
                0
                In this sense, of course not. I have nothing against an expert. hi
                "Fu" is more likely to refer to the conclusion. If the Chinese decide on this, then much later, when the real withdrawal of industry begins, the outflow of investments, when relations are already ruined. There will be nothing left to lose in this case. Now the military operation is premature; it may become a catalyst for a “break” with the West.
                1. Dear sofa expert. April 19 2020 22: 07
                  +2
                  It is difficult to predict something here. Taiwan is very important for China, both strategically and for the prestige of today's Chinese leadership. It is not known what China might do. Also Americans are also constantly escalating the situation in the region. Everything is possible there today. Therefore, time will tell. But the version in connection with the coronavirus seems to me also a little naive.
                  1. 123 Offline 123
                    123 (123) April 19 2020 22: 18
                    0
                    The title of "conqueror of Taiwan" is hardly what excites Comrade X. It is unprofitable for him to escalate the situation. Militarily, China is still decently lagging behind, and the economy is too closely tied to the United States and decently tied to Europe. Anyway, China is too export-oriented. As soon as he stops, the problems will be decent. And coronavirus is more likely used as an excuse.
                    1. Dear sofa expert. April 19 2020 22: 21
                      0
                      Well, about the "C" I would not speak so categorically. There are opinions that speak of precisely the importance for "C".

                      https://regnum.ru/news/2482102.html
                      1. 123 Offline 123
                        123 (123) April 19 2020 22: 27
                        0
                        Taiwan, like a prize, is tempting, but it's risky. The Chinese are patient people, I think they will wait and take it at the right time. It is advisable that the United States at this moment was not up to Taiwan. The Americans are unlikely to welcome the opportunity to shed blood for the independence of the island, but they can and, of course, seize the “separatists” to take advantage of the economic pressure “to the fullest.”
                      2. Dear sofa expert. April 19 2020 22: 42
                        0
                        Well, so, as it were, on this topic and article: the Americans, they say, because of the coronavirus is not up to Taiwan, etc.
    2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
      Sergey Latyshev (Serge) April 19 2020 22: 32
      -2
      Fu again. Just listen carefully.
      Peter Jennings is not a professor, not a former officer, not a virologist, but simply Peter Jennings
      "on the site"!!! - not even in the magazine, but simply on the site.
      "under the Australian" !!!! - in Australia!!! Center for World Analytics, yes !!!!
      "Institute for Strategic Policy" - is there such a thing there ?? True strategic?
      And why? But just

      the PLA could not have a better time for the blockade of the Taiwan Strait and actions against the island itself.

      - just wanted it like that.
      Like to show that they coped with the virus better !!!
      A bunch of reasoned articles were why China has not yet touched Taiwan. And suddenly, when the epidemic, the crisis, only with the USA have agreed somewhere, and somewhere are ready to beat the muzzle, they will climb into Taiwan armed to the teeth? Without a single fact?
      Once again, Fu.
      Reminds a series of news that Ukraine is about to go on the offensive in Novorossia. With dates, troop locations and intercepted orders. They broadcast and broadcast for a whole year, but she just didn’t go. And then again she did not go under Zelensky.
      1. Dear sofa expert. April 19 2020 22: 40
        +1
        By the way, you also noticed that you stopped talking about Ukraine at all?) As they say: “about the dead either good or nothing”). Go better: live with God! Nafig you are not interested in anyone.
  • The comment was deleted.
  • Aleksey Glotov Offline Aleksey Glotov
    Aleksey Glotov (alexey glotov) April 19 2020 14: 51
    +2
    Delirium on delirium ravings delirium ... whatever article, then naked speculation without any evidence.
  • shadow Offline shadow
    shadow April 19 2020 16: 13
    +1
    Why I think this is not nonsense.

    https://news-front.info/2020/04/19/chem-vyzvano-massovoe-begstvo-iz-kitaya-zapadnoj-promyshlennosti/
    1. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
      Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) April 19 2020 19: 48
      0
      If you really need cheap stuff, if anything, there are also Indians, who fill up the world with cheap drugs and with whom Amers have a very good relationship.
      1. Citizen Mѣshkov (Sergѣi) April 19 2020 23: 44
        0
        Why should the Indians get into this mess? They have Pakistan on their side. Do you think they will miss the opportunity to overcome Kashmir?
  • Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
    Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) April 19 2020 19: 44
    -3
    Without a strong Navy, which China does not yet have, the Americans will smear the Chinese as d .... about. This is militarily. And they can, firstly, not jerk in vain then at all, and secondly, they will say dosvidos to their grandmothers in the US treasuries, etc. and even more close to the Chinese their market.
    1. commbatant Offline commbatant
      commbatant (Sergei) April 19 2020 20: 38
      +1
      Quote: Barmaley_2
      amerikosy the Chinese will spread like d .... about.
      And secondly, they will say dosvidos to their grandmothers in the US treasuries, etc. and even more close to the Chinese their market.

      China for the United States is the second trading partner after the EU, and that the United States will fight and break off trade relations with China because of some kind of Taiwan, which is not recognized by the United States? What financial college do you study in?
      Work hard, young man, don’t come to the cashier tomorrow ...
      1. shadow Offline shadow
        shadow April 19 2020 21: 19
        0
        Will be. Trump even arranged a trade war for China. And now it is threatening that the securities that China bought from the United States will not be valid, and even wants to bill by $ 6 trillion. Few arguments?
        1. commbatant Offline commbatant
          commbatant (Sergei) April 20 2020 12: 06
          +2
          Quote: Shadows
          Trump even arranged a trade war for China.

          And it ended with what, the victory of the United States?

          And now threatensthat the securities that China bought from the United States will not be valid, and he also wants to bill $ 6 trillion.

          He doesn’t mean that he’ll marry ....

          Few arguments?

          They generally do not .... I judge by the actual actions and their consequences ....
          And US actions are directed against its competitors - the EU and China ....
          All the political actions that the United States does in foreign policy are directed against weakening its competitors, but not destroying them ...
          The EU should lose cheap resources (which will increase the cost of EU products in relation to the United States, which means less competitive), the PRC should lose some of its sales markets, which will lead to stagnation of the PRC economy ...
          All of the above actions, in general, should hit the Russian Federation, which is drinking both the EU and the PRC ....
          At the same time, the United States, heating up the military-political situation in the Asia-Pacific region and introducing economic sanctions against the PRC, are forcing US transatlantic companies to return to the mainland (i.e. the USA), and also cause anxiety in the economy of other US allies (at the same time competitors) in the Asia-Pacific region - Japan and the Republic of Kazakhstan ...
          1. shadow Offline shadow
            shadow April 20 2020 14: 53
            0
            Did I write that Trump won? No. The court has already filed about $ 6 trillion. Why not arguments?
            If America won the trade war, then there would be no talk of a real war. There is one more argument in this direction. This is the export from China of all enterprises to Taiwan or Vietnam. At least they are already talking about it openly. But will China sit and look at all this? Will not. Perhaps he (China) nationalizes all enterprises. Well, then, and then only guns.
      2. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
        Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) April 22 2020 13: 07
        -2
        Learn to start reading EVERYTHING and BEFORE.
    2. Dear sofa expert. April 19 2020 21: 21
      -1
      The Americans have already spread Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan ..
      1. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
        Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) April 22 2020 13: 09
        -2
        Yes Yes! Only then was there a great and mighty one who provided "brotherly help" to everyone.
        1. Dear sofa expert. April 22 2020 14: 40
          0
          Well, today, what is the “great and mighty” that prevents Americans in Afghanistan?
          Yes, and Korea could be repeated .. but no .. twisted their "armada" in the distance, and sailed away, pulling his rat tail.
          1. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
            Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) April 22 2020 21: 07
            +1
            Who and what hinders amers in Afghanistan? Persians, Pakistanis and even the Russian Federation are trying to get their interest, which flirts with the Taliban, contrasting them with the IG and solving the problems of heroin supply. The US has successfully conducted a military operation there and is controlling exactly what they need, periodically squeezing the Taliban. Which one to repeat Korea? North? But why do they need it? It’s just that it’s unnecessary for nothing that they do not respect the DolAR and got hold of nuclear weapons and at the same time get poison in South Korea. hit? So the South Koreans are the first to scream, so that they don’t even think about it. For amers, it’s not the problem of the fuss that costs someone, but the problem: why? What does it give? Expands markets, influence or what? But everything is OK under the Americans. They have other main problems.
            1. Dear sofa expert. April 22 2020 21: 28
              +1
              On February 29, a peace agreement was signed between the United States and the Taliban in the capital of Qatar (banned in the Russian Federation). The treaty became the largest Taliban diplomatic and political success in history. The radical movement has never been recognized at such a high international level.
              ..We are dealing with a practically unprecedented situation: the largest world superpower sits at the negotiating table with the radical party, which has also been fighting for 20 years, and signs a peace treaty with it. Its official name is: "The Peace Agreement in Afghanistan between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which the United States is not recognized as a state and is known as the Taliban and the United States." (TASS)

              Do you consider this a “successful operation”?))
              This is another disgrace for the United States.

              In Korea, you correctly noted: An American strike on North Korea would mean a North Korean strike on South Korea and mainly on an American military base near Seoul. And there are 28 thousand American mountain warriors. So, with one artillery salvo, out of 1500 heavy guns located directly on the border with Yu.K., “half the result of the Vietnam War” would be sent to the next world.
              Plus missile strike on Guam. But taam ... I don’t even want to say what the American military machine would have remained with if the island had been wiped off the face of the earth, well, for example, with a hydrogen bomb.
              So the overseas strategists were scared. That's the price to them.
              1. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
                Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) April 23 2020 01: 37
                0
                First, in your place, I would not underestimate the power of the US Armed Forces. This is a very big mistake. Their fear of close combat, which they just in every way and everywhere avoid, means absolutely nothing. And S. Korea has one very big problem - the means of delivery of nuclear weapons at any decent distance. The air force is extremely weak, and the number of long-range missiles is very limited. Moreover, technologically, these are very mediocre missiles, which are not nearly extremely difficult targets, such as with multiple warheads or maneuvering units with a mass of false targets, etc. Despite the fact that the missile defense and air defense system, especially The United States’s area is pretty good, and the offshore component of ships with the Aegis system, which is constantly being upgraded and it’s unlikely that they will be too tough for a few or even a dozen Korean ICBMs. Moreover, I think and how familiar I am with the art of war by virtue of a certain military education, all efforts will be initially applied with the help of versatile attacks, starting from special forces and air strikes with everything that is possible to prevent even the launch of ICBMs at all. North Korea is a small country. This is a difficult, but quite solvable task. But the closest neighbors will have enough of the arsenal available to the northerners. Even outdated. And secondly, I want to recall the goals of the United States in Afghanistan. Real and real.

                "Speaking of goals, we need to distinguish between those that were set realistically and those that were declared for citizens, including their own," said Alexander Knyazev, expert on the Middle East and Central Asia, full member of the Russian Geographical Society, RT.
                According to him, the United States actually fulfilled the tasks that it set in September 2001, and now it is keeping the situation in the country under control, but the US military did not go to Afghanistan to eradicate terrorism and Islamism there.
                “The real interests of the United States are to assert its long-term military presence in Afghanistan and the ability to influence regional processes. For example, countering Iran, Russia's renewed influence in the region, and Chinese projects, ”the expert says.

                And NATO units, according to the agreement, will remain at least until 2024. And there they will look.
    3. Citizen Mѣshkov (Sergѣi) April 19 2020 23: 41
      +1
      Rather, the Americans of the Americans are throwing their hats. One and a half billion caps for America is enough.
      1. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
        Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) April 22 2020 21: 09
        -1
        Yeah, there’s not enough to shoot cartridges.
  • commbatant Offline commbatant
    commbatant (Sergei) April 19 2020 20: 28
    0
    And the Taiwanese themselves never supported unification with the mainland.

    Another expert again knows about the aspirations of all the peoples of Taiwan than they themselves ...
  • Yuri Mikhailovsky (Yuri Mikhailovsky) April 19 2020 23: 37
    +1
    Trepology ...
  • Citizen Mѣshkov (Sergѣi) April 19 2020 23: 38
    -1
    But what about quarantine? Or did they all recover there?