Why Ukraine is not destined to become a gas hub

In 2015, Ukraine for political reasons refused to import gas from Russia. Instead, Kiev began purchasing “Slovak,” “Hungarian,” and “Polish” gas of Russian origin. Moreover, with the support of Poland, Nezalezhnaya intended to become a regional hub for the resale of American LNG to Europe.

However, according to the conclusions of the analysts of the Polish consulting company Esperis Consulting, Ukraine will have to wait for real independence from Gazprom at least until 2025, and this is in the best case.

The problem is that Warsaw itself will have to choose: the ambitions of Kiev or its own national interests. By 2020, Poland intends to completely abandon the purchase of Russian gas, and it is serious. An LNG terminal with a capacity of 5 billion cubic meters per year has already been built in Swinoujscie, there are plans to expand its capacity for receiving “blue fuel” to 7,5 billion. The project of the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline (“Baltic Pipe”) has been activated, through which the Poles intend to receive 10 billion cubic meters annually from Scandinavia.

Such determination and consistency of Warsaw is disadvantageous to Moscow, but in its own way deserves respect. At the same time, it is completely incomprehensible how Ukraine fits here with its Napoleonic plans voiced by its Minister of Energy:

It’s not just about diversifying supplies to Ukraine, which is the cornerstone of our economic, political, energy independence. And about a large geopolitical project in order to reduce the influence of the Russian Federation on Europe. About turning our country into an energy gas hub thanks to gas storages.

Kiev intended to acquire through Poland from 6 to 8 billion cubic meters of American LNG annually for subsequent resale to Europe. However, ironically, Ukraine itself in this ambitious energy project stumbled on a transit.

Nezalezhnaya does not have its own LNG terminal; the project for its construction in Odessa or Ochakovo quietly “died”. The capacities of the terminal in Swinoujscie are not enough to satisfy the needs of both Poland and Ukraine. To turn the country into a "gas hub" will have to fulfill at least two conditions. Firstly, it will be necessary to wait until 2025 for the Poles to build a floating LNG terminal in Gdansk with a capacity of 8,2 billion cubic meters per year. Secondly, it will be necessary to invest heavily in expanding the capacity of the Polish pipe. Now it allows sending 2 billion cubic meters a year to Ukraine, and at least 6,6 will be needed.

Who will pay for it, the Poles themselves, Europeans or Ukrainians, is a big question. It is possible that Warsaw expects from Kiev counter proposals in this regard. How else? For "independence" you have to pay.
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  1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) April 15 2020 11: 43
    On a fig?
    Near Russia with their gas surges, Belarus with the Old Man, and others, other ....
    You can take your time ...
  2. Alexander Semenov (Alexander Semenov) April 15 2020 12: 40
    As long as there are interests of Russian business and communications, gas will come from the Russian Federation .... even if there is a war, there is nothing personal, as they say. Due to its geographical location, Russia will never be able to cut this chunk, which means it will feed .. Business, of course, although not very loyal.
  3. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) April 15 2020 16: 28
    Following oil prices, gas prices will fall. And the "American" LNG will quietly die, following the shale oil. Both in Poland and in Ukraine. And Russia will say thank you for the constructed terminals and (if the client wishes) will transport LNG there from Yamal and Ust Luga.
    1. Alexander Semenov (Alexander Semenov) April 15 2020 16: 51
      Carry at European rates, not at Russian. Let's see what will be the profitability ... it is already no more than 5-8% due to tax benefits. Of course, it is beneficial to supply gas for nothing, it already looks like communism.
      1. boriz Offline boriz
        boriz (boriz) April 15 2020 20: 13
        Let's see. Waiting for a deal at prices.
    2. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
      Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) April 15 2020 20: 08
      And the "American" LNG will quietly die, following the shale oil.

      - did shale oil so directly take and die?
      1. boriz Offline boriz
        boriz (boriz) April 15 2020 23: 53
        Well, if their prime cost is 2 times higher than prices, then what should happen to them?
        1. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
          Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) April 16 2020 08: 33
          I’m only afraid that she didn’t go anywhere, but temporarily hid. And it will invariably arise from a certain price, like the legendary Phoenix bird, spoiling all the cards to traditional suppliers ...
  4. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) April 15 2020 21: 42
    Poland and the EU must pay for US gas in foreign currency. Here the exchange for goods will not work. And with Russia it would be possible to trade for commodity products from the EU. It is mutually beneficial! In the EU - gas, from there industrial goods. This is a profitable economy.
    1. King3214 Offline King3214
      King3214 (Sergius) April 16 2020 10: 20
      And what kind of goods can the EU supply to Russia for billions of euros? Do not offer tolerance and Euro-values ​​- the goods are rotten.
  5. AICO Offline AICO
    AICO (Vyacheslav) April 15 2020 21: 45
    In 2015, Ukraine for political reasons refused to import gas from Russia

    For prostitutional reasons, if they were charged for free and paid extra for this gas, they would choke on freebies, wherever all politics would resolve - it’s wonderful !!!