The economic situation in Russia begins to deteriorate


The coronavirus pandemic in Russia is in full swing. Tired of quarantine, people are eagerly awaiting its end so that life goes "as before." Unfortunately, we can already say that we will not live better in the coming years, rather, on the contrary, the situation in the country will begin to deteriorate steadily due to a whole range of problems.


Let’s see how the authorities intend to deal with the obviously started economic crisis, and is there anything you can do about it.

Recall that two years ago, the famous Address of President Putin to the Federal Assembly took place, in which the head of state set a number of ambitious tasks. Among his orders was the goal to gain a foothold in the five countries with the largest economies peace, build roads and other infrastructure, improve healthcare, improve the quality and life expectancy of Russians and other good wishes. Already, it can be stated that almost none of this will be realized in the coming years.

The Russian budget is critically dependent on the sale of hydrocarbons for export. Gas prices in Europe fell record-high due to a whole range of factors: an abnormally warm winter, overcrowding of European underground gas storages, oversupply and falling consumption due to general quarantine. The situation is similar with oil: Russia miserably lost the 5-week standoff with Saudi Arabia, inspired by the demarche by the Rosneft leadership, which resulted in obligations imposed on us to reduce the production of “black gold” by 2,5 million barrels per day and, accordingly, export. Due to the frankly lost gas and oil wars, the federal budget will now lose billions of dollars in export earnings, in addition to the losses that the country has already suffered due to lower oil prices in March.

According to preliminary estimates, Russia's GDP may decline by 4-7%. The coronavirus pandemic and forced quarantine, which, apparently, can be extended for many more weeks, are frankly finishing off our economy. Businesses begin to go bankrupt, their employees find themselves unemployed. Because of this, the monthly income of insurance payments to extrabudgetary funds is reduced. It is estimated that in the event of a reduction of 10-20% of workers, these funds will be missed from 130 to 195 billion rubles, which will have to be compensated from the federal budget.

This means that the state will have less funds to fulfill social obligations: payment of salaries, benefits, pensions. The fulfillment of presidential tasks to improve the standard of living and longevity is simply not feasible. Rather, the opposite. If we draw parallels with the situation in the early nineties, then due to poor “social well-being” mortality and morbidity of the population increased. Already, economists have noted a drop in demand even for essential goods. Russians tighten their belts, fearing a dark future: rising unemployment and lower incomes.

Unfortunately, the Kremlin can’t just “fill in money” with problems. If, for example, the dollar and the euro are global reserve currencies, then the inclusion of a printing press in Russia will lead to a rapid increase in inflation, and foreign speculators will run away from the domestic securities market, and the Russians themselves will prefer to buy foreign currency, which will lead to even greater depreciation of the ruble . Western tracing recipes will not work for us.

In theory, in such a difficult situation, one should expect a freeze of the promised infrastructure projects and a postponement of their implementation. But “something” tells us that we won’t be left without mega-buildings, because the “kings of government orders” also want to eat. By the way, about the priorities: despite obvious economic problems, the authorities did not regret 2,14 trillion rubles for a very questionable transaction regarding the transfer of Sberbank from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to the Government of the Russian Federation at the expense of the Russian National Welfare Fund reserves. It's time for such an expenditure, you will not say anything. The "deal of the century" was turned around in an accelerated manner to the noise, while the population at the TV screens was afraid of a pandemic.
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  1. Arkharov Offline
    Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) April 14 2020 11: 47
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    I recall the saying:

    The soup is thin, but nutritious - you will be thin, but diligent.
  2. Vladimir_ Voronov (Vladimir) April 14 2020 12: 19
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    Marzhecki, the basic principle of knowledge is comparison. Compare the situation with the development of the epidemic in Russia and among your employers from the State Department, and are they not striving to become a world gas station. Write your articles based on at least such a primitive analysis.
    1. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 15 2020 10: 29
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      Do my employers from the State Department? laughing Well, you have a mess in your head ....
      1. Vladimir_ Voronov (Vladimir) April 15 2020 12: 15
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        It doesn’t matter who pays you extra money, it’s important - on whose mill you pour some water ...
  3. gardenstyle Offline
    gardenstyle (Sergey Gorovoy) April 14 2020 12: 38
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    The opinion of the loser from the transaction with the Guardian of Russia does not correspond to reality. Oil storages in the Russian Federation are overcrowded, so it would have been necessary to reduce production anyway, but prices after the transaction would have remained at the level of $ 30 per barrel, which in turn helps to further cut the US shale complex.
  4. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker April 14 2020 12: 52
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    The economic situation in Russia is starting to worsen.

    Received "tablets" for March, a salary of 5-10 thousand rubles. less. With an average salary at our plant 35-40 thousand rubles. And we both worked and are working. There was just a reason not to pay and the government and the president are not a decree.
  5. 123 Offline
    123 (123) April 14 2020 12: 56
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    The "messenger of permalogy" has returned, laughing probably celebrated the victory in the oil war. yes

    Russia miserably lost the 5-week confrontation with Saudi Arabia, inspired by the demarche by the leadership of Rosneft, which resulted in obligations imposed on us to reduce the production of “black gold” by 2,5 million barrels per day and, accordingly, export. Due to the frankly lost gas and oil wars, the federal budget will now lose billions of dollars in export earnings, in addition to the losses that the country has already suffered due to lower oil prices in March.

    What would you please? winked



    Already, economists have noted a drop in demand even for essential goods. Russians tighten their belts, fearing a dark future: rising unemployment and lower incomes.

    Quarantine, however. Who goes shopping?

    This means that the state will have less funds to fulfill social obligations: payment of salaries, benefits, pensions. The fulfillment of presidential tasks to improve the standard of living and longevity is simply not feasible.

    Remind me when the NWF was liquidated? Did I miss this event?

    In theory, in such a difficult situation, one should expect a freeze of the promised infrastructure projects and a postponement of their implementation.

    This is to completely stop the economy?
    1. shadow Offline
      shadow April 14 2020 14: 34
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      EEE, and you already laid out, okay, + you.
      1. 123 Offline
        123 (123) April 14 2020 15: 36
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        Thank you, though + against the general background is not noticeable. request The liberal herd has passed; all grass has been trampled. They do not like to listen to the truth. winked
        1. shadow Offline
          shadow April 14 2020 15: 41
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          Leave the wretched, let them fly in their dreams (possibly from grass).))))
        2. Marzhecki Offline
          Marzhecki (Sergei) April 15 2020 10: 31
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          Liberal flock? That is, liberals are bad? OK. Be consistent. Quote from the Russian newspaper, an official information source:

          Russian President Vladimir Putin is an absolute liberal by nature, not a conservative, said presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

          Putin commented on the situation with the protection of ambassadors.
          “You know, enemies - primarily abroad, but also some enemies within Russia - believe that Putin is more likely a conservative and such a statesman who is alien to the word“ freedom. ”But Putin is an absolute liberal by nature, and a much larger liberal rather than called liberals who call themselves “the opposition,” Peskov said in an interview with Mir, who said the president is “absolutely liberal in his economic approaches, social policy, and so on.”

          https://rg.ru/2016/12/21/peskov-putin-gorazdo-bolshij-liberal-nezheli-nazyvnye-liberaly.html
  6. Oleg Rambover Offline
    Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) April 14 2020 13: 49
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    The Great Depression is a fall of 10-15% of GDP, the beginning of the 90s a fall of 40% of GDP, 2008 - 5%. Apparently, we will lose 5%. Most likely, it will be closer to 10%. I hope it doesn’t reach the 90s.
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) April 14 2020 15: 34
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      Electricity consumption - 5%, rail transportation, if not mistaken - 7,5%, in general, yes, approximately - 5-10% will be, it's hard to say for sure.
      That's just the great depression, why 10-15% of GDP?

      In the early years of the Great Depression, America's economic growth declined by 31%. US industrial production has fallen by almost 50%, while agricultural prices have fallen by 53%.
      1. Oleg Rambover Offline
        Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) April 14 2020 16: 17
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        Quote: 123
        That's just the great depression, why 10-15% of GDP?

        I took advantage of these data and calculated the decline in US GDP for individual years (as a percentage compared to the previous year): 1930 - 8,9: 1931 - 7,7; 1932 - 14,8; 1933 - 1,9

        https://svpressa.ru/economy/article/262543/%20https:/svpressa.ru/society/article/262204/
        1. 123 Offline
          123 (123) April 14 2020 16: 47
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          Thank you, hi looked. yes

          I took advantage of these data and calculated the decline in US GDP for some years (percent compared to the previous year): 1930 - 8,9: 1931 - 7,7; 1932 - 14,8; 1933 - 1,9 (Historical Statistics of the United States. Part IP 135, 235, 241).

          Do you think our economy will fall for several years? A one-time drop of even 10% is not entirely correct to compare with a four-year drop, the scale is not at all the same. The "great depression" is not drawn.
          In addition, I meant data on Russia for the month, and not for the year. Are you going to quarantine until December?
          1. Oleg Rambover Offline
            Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) April 14 2020 17: 14
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            Quote: 123
            Do you think our economy will fall for several years?

            Who knows, I think, about two years.

            Quote: 123
            The "great depression" is not drawn.

            I hope so too.

            Quote: 123
            In addition, I meant data on Russia for the month, and not for the year.

            I mean for a year.

            Quote: 123
            Are you going to quarantine until December?

            The Chinese sat for 2 months. Italians are sitting 1,5. I think we will sit until the end of May at best.
  7. Blast Offline
    Blast (Vladimir) April 14 2020 13: 57
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    In my opinion, the author of the article doesn’t understand the economy. The number of mega-buildings does not depend on the amount of money, but only on technical capabilities. If money is not being filed and not transferred to offshore, but is going to specific business, then how many do not print it, inflation is very difficult to disperse.
  8. Alexander Semenov (Alexander Semenov) April 14 2020 14: 12
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    Author 5 for the article, simply and in the case.
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) April 14 2020 15: 34
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      You have a common affair with him. laughing
    2. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 15 2020 10: 34
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      Thanks. I remember that you were one of the few who supported me when I wrote that Russia would lose the oil war, and all these 123, the Rum-Roma, the Voronovs, the Nicks and the other hooray screamers ... threw themselves.
      In the end, it happened. And this breed of people does not learn anything.
      1. Arkharov Offline
        Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) April 15 2020 15: 35
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        Learn, speak ?! They have a higher purpose ....
  9. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) April 14 2020 14: 30
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    Recall that two years ago, the famous Address of President Putin to the Federal Assembly took place, in which the head of state set a number of ambitious tasks.

    According to preliminary estimates, Russia's GDP may decline by 4-7%. The coronavirus pandemic and forced quarantine, which, apparently, can be extended for many more weeks, are frankly finishing off our economy. Businesses begin to go bankrupt, their employees find themselves unemployed. Because of this, the monthly income of insurance payments to extrabudgetary funds is reduced. It is estimated that in the event of a reduction of 10-20% of workers, these funds will be missed from 130 to 195 billion rubles, which will have to be compensated from the federal budget.

    - It seems that the coronavirus just decided to change our guarantor ... - The guarantor himself, it seems ... - he will never leave ...
    “But be that as it may, and no matter how paradoxical it may sound ... - this is not the most important thing today ...”
    - And what is the main thing ??? - And the main thing today ... is the agriculture of Russia ... - The time of sowing ... - And our media are silent about this "like fish on ice" ...- Does our "concerned state" allocate fuel for sowing and how much ... - And how the sowing proceeds; and did it even begin ??? - And for Russia, sowing is all ... - Nobody needs to explain anything ... - The whole Russian way and the very existence of the Russian common people are behind this ... - Harvest - grain-livestock-food-starvation ...
    - Soon, the summer season will open; in three weeks it is already necessary to plant potatoes all over the country ... - Summer residents do not care - they manage and plant ... - But how is our country as a whole ... - will it plant ???
    - Something our guarantor is completely husked up ... - it is not visible and not heard ... - he began to transform into D.A. Medvedev ... - And this is a very bad trend ...
    - Yes, okay - everyone sees everything themselves ... - Hey, minusculers ...- who is the first .. ???
    - To the author of the topic ...- my plus ...
    1. Accidentally Offline
      Accidentally April 16 2020 11: 30
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      Irishenka, well done, well, good girl, there are no minus signers ................. or they have a lack of intelligence and brains ...... and you, as usual, have a plus .
  10. shadow Offline
    shadow April 14 2020 20: 29
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  11. Nick Offline
    Nick (Nikolai) April 14 2020 22: 50
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    By the way, about the priorities: despite obvious economic problems, the authorities did not regret 2,14 trillion rubles for a very questionable transaction regarding the transfer of Sberbank from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to the Government of the Russian Federation at the expense of the Russian National Welfare Fund reserves. It's time for such an expenditure, you will not say anything. The "deal of the century" was turned around in an accelerated manner to the noise, while the population at the TV screens was afraid of a pandemic.

    Again comrade shadow casts a fence. 75% of these funds will return to the budget, and 25 will remain in the Central Bank. At the Bank of Russia.
    1. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 15 2020 10: 45
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      And they could stay in the NWF and go to the needs of the country. And the Central Bank is an independent structure from the state.
  12. Citizen Mѣshkov (Sergey G) April 15 2020 00: 11
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    It would be strange if the economic situation began to improve.
  13. Rum rum Offline
    Rum rum (Rum rum) April 15 2020 02: 16
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    I look, Mr. Marzhetsky’s, they’ve completely pecked. Doesn’t appear in the comments at all. crying
    He sprinkles an article and is silent. We are all evil. So the pan reporter will cease to please us with his work. It will become completely boring .... recourse
    1. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 15 2020 10: 27
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      Regarding a certain category of commentators, my position is as follows.
      There is an expression: if God wants to punish, he takes away the mind. In my opinion, the voluntary rejection of the mind is the worst sin.
      I know that you will not understand. hi
    2. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 15 2020 10: 44
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      After: I am not interested in discussing with you at all. All the same, that with a flock of aggressive baboons to talk about something, the effect is zero. Waste of time. I have to respond only to a frank nonsense on the part of people like you, so that the commentary is not totally overwhelmed ...
      And after that I will poke you into your own comments. So, as it was with the oil war with the SA. That's all.
      1. Rum rum Offline
        Rum rum (Rum rum) April 15 2020 19: 44
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        Pan Marzhecki, you are simply too categorical in your opinions, and politics, like diplomacy, is the science of the possible (flexible and variable).
        I also recommend reading Sun Tzu.
      2. Nick Offline
        Nick (Nikolai) April 17 2020 18: 58
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        Quote: Marzhetsky
        And after that I will poke you into your own comments. So, as it was with the oil war with the SA. That's all.

        You have been poked into your amateurish articles more than once, but you won’t get away with it.
  14. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 15 2020 10: 25
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    Quote: Blast
    In my opinion, the author of the article doesn’t understand the economy. The number of mega-buildings does not depend on the amount of money, but only on technical capabilities. If money is not being filed and not transferred to offshore, but is going to specific business, then how many do not print it, inflation is very difficult to disperse.

    In my opinion, there are all commentators on the selection, academics, analysts, experts. But for some reason, as a rule, I turn out to be the right one, as a rule.
    1. Arkharov Offline
      Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) April 15 2020 15: 38
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      Because based on your assessment, reality, and they have unjustified dreams and desires. Often even painful.
  15. g1washntwn Offline
    g1washntwn (George Washington) April 15 2020 14: 20
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    Again 25. The oil price war was initiated by the Saudis, freaked out and lifted up production during the crisis period of the world economy to heaven. The refusal to reduce the existing production levels of other countries in this situation did not affect anything at all. So I doubt that there will be any winners in this war. There will be different levels of damage, and this is not unique to victory and defeat. the author is pumping up, and besides the Russian Federation there are countries that are more budget-dependent on hydrocarbon exports, and the production of a real product in the world is not growing ... no one. Propaganda all-propaganda stamps in the article - in bulk (+5), but I did not notice the analysis and suggestions (-5) = 0.
  16. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) April 15 2020 21: 04
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    Of course, the threat of inflation is very big. But I would not dare to predict the future. Especially at oil and gas prices. Now for me incomprehensible things. Why is the government traded with the Central Bank in such a difficult time? Why donations do not measure the salaries of millionaires? Why is paid medicine still working? Paid medicine during an epidemic is insanity.
  17. Serge Tixiy Offline
    Serge Tixiy (Serge Tixiy) April 21 2020 07: 48
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    How much is it getting worse? To listen to all these workers of the State Department already and everything was torn to shreds .... No, it is clear that the “fight against coronovirus” doesn’t paint anyone, but the tongue is not a priest, let him speak.