Why oil Brest Peace is the best scenario for Russia

April 14 2020 33

Today, after the announcement of an agreement on an unprecedented reduction in the production of “black gold” by all of its significant exporters, commentators of this event distinctly divided into three categories. The first can be attributed to those who sincerely rejoice that the countries that came together on the eve of a fierce confrontation managed to come to at least some kind of compromise and thereby at least halt the fall in world energy prices. The second is mainly representatives of the expert community, who believe that optimism is inappropriate here, or at least premature. The deal is good, but it is unlikely to be able to seriously affect something.

Well, and finally, the third group is those who see in everything that’s happening not a unique chance to stop the destructive processes in the global hydrocarbon market, which threatened to completely bring it down, and then the whole world, which is desperately balancing over the abyss today the economy, but exclusively “defeat”, “rout”, “shame” and so on. Moreover, they attribute all these extremely unflattering definitions and epithets to just one country. That is - Russia. Alas, there are plenty of supporters of this view of things in our Fatherland.

The funny thing is that the vice president of PJSC LUKOIL Leonid Fedun, who draws parallels between the new OPEC + deal and Brest Peace, either simply doesn’t understand the history too well, or expresses himself so floridly that his words are quoted with pleasure, reinterpreted in their own way, the obvious enemies of our country. But meanwhile, if the current agreement to reduce oil production in the long term leads to the same results as the document signed 102 years ago on the withdrawal of our country from the First World War, it would be very good! Why? I will try to justify my point of view.

"The obscene world" or the death of the country

In order to understand whether Mr. Fedun has given the Russian negotiators who have concluded the current oil deal a tasty moral "slap in the face", or has given them a very flattering compliment, it is necessary, first of all, to remember what exactly the representatives of Soviet Russia signed their autographs under in Brest-Litovsk on March 3, 1918. At the same time, I immediately propose to agree - schizophrenic versions like the one that in this way "Lenin and the Bolsheviks worked off the money of the Kaiser's General Staff received for the revolution and travel in the famous sealed carriage", we will not consider. This is for psychiatrists and pseudo-historians. Let's talk about the real prerequisites and results of the agreement. Let's start with the first. Yes, the leader of the world proletariat personally called the "Brest-Litovsk Peace" nothing but "obscene". Nevertheless, the main thing in this case is not emotions and a clear answer to the question: "Could our country, in the established at the beginning of 1918, continue military operations against Germany, Austria-Hungary and Turkey?" The answer is clear: no. No, again no, and absolutely no. The army no longer existed as such. With allegations that it was "corrupted by the Bolsheviks," I again address the medical specialists of the above profile. Long ago, it was documented that the Provisional Government coped with this task (as well as the launch of processes for the territorial collapse of the Empire) in an excellent way. In fact, the German troops, perfectly armed, equipped and retained at that time iron discipline, stood on the threshold of Petrograd, which there was no one to physically defend. The alternative to the "obscene" peace was the complete destruction of the country, the loss of statehood, the death of Russia. No other options other than sore brains political opponents of Lenin and the company did not exist.

Yes, humiliation was burning, shame immeasurable, territorial and material losses - colossal. But there is, in the end, a difference - to lose a lot or lose everything ?! I will not go into relishing all the terrifying disadvantages for our country of the "Brest Peace", I will allow myself to proceed immediately to somewhat more distant prospects. This "abomination" lasted only until November of the same 1918. After that, in the fire of their own revolutions, all three empires perished, that in Brest-Litovsk they enjoyed their “victory” - the German, the Austro-Hungarian, and the Ottoman to the heap. Half of the promised indemnities was not paid, but German comrades from the Ukrainian, Belarusian and Russian territories that were seized didn’t have time to properly squash the bread on our bread, lard and bulbs, quickly sank the Nakhter Vaterland and sign much more shameful and the horrific Versailles agreement. Well, perhaps the Poles were pissed off by picking up something from the "ownerless" to their grabbing hands, but they also did not have much time to rejoice - exactly until 1939, when we all returned it. The main thing is that the story with the Brest Peace did not end in 1918, but on May 9, 1945, on the ruins of the Reichstag. Finally, the point in the case of the “obscene” world, signed at the request of Lenin, who turned out to be much more perspicacious, was put by his faithful comrade-in-arms Stalin, who once and for all very specifically explained to Europe all about territorial and other claims to our Motherland. Why all this historical digression, you ask? And besides, the Brest Peace ultimately turned out to be in Russia's favor, thanks to which it saved itself from destruction and gained time to prepare for revenge. But the current conditions, alas, painfully resemble the very critical situation of a hundred years ago - what is there to hide. Well, with the story finished, let us now turn, in fact, to the economy.

"The obscene OPEC +" or the collapse of the economy?

The agreement now concluded to reduce OPEC + oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day will require our country to reduce the activity at its drilling facilities by 22.7%, pumping 2.5 million barrels less per day. Is it a shame? To the horror! Unprofitable? Not the right word ... However, to agree with Bloomberg, which, excuse me for the expression, itches without blushing that the agreement is “disastrous for Russia” and represents its “painful failure”, is also impossible. As well as not arguing with those who have already erected a whole myth that "Sechin is to blame for everything, who in March did not agree to an agreement of 0.5 million barrels per day." But how much can you try to put the cart in front of the horse and issue an investigation as a cause! Is it really not clear that the extension of the previous deal to reduce production (with its expansion) would have absolutely nothing saved and corrected! Prices would not have fallen ?! Collapsed, how cute! The main “killer” of oil demand, which has generated not only monstrous dumping, but also the physical overflow of black gold storage tanks around the world, is not the expansion of “revengeful Arab guys”, but the coronavirus epidemic. Already, serious people in oil-producing countries recognize that they will have to “tighten the tap” not by 10, but by all 15, or even 20 million barrels per day! But ... The worst thing - and this, too, may be completely insufficient. Alas, Bank of America analysts predict that the fall in demand for “black gold” may not be the expected 16-17%, but all 30-40%. Their counterparts at Goldman Sachs are somewhat more “optimistic” - they talk about a 19% decrease in consumption in April-May, but they nevertheless claim that no reduction in production will close this gap in the markets and will not stop the fall in prices.

Yes, Russia agreed in March to reduce by as much as you want - today this topic would have arisen again! The current agreement is no "end to the oil war." Not the finale of the economic tragedy called "the fall of" black gold ", but only his next act. Or intermission in it - as anyone likes. Those exporters will come to establish their rules in the markets, fight for a place in them and dictate pricing policies, who will come to what a still close end to the global COVID-19 pandemic with the least “sagging” economies and the preserved potential of their own “oil industry”. Today, Russia's position on the fight against the virus is much better than that of the United States. What will happen in a month or six months? I do not know! And no one knows. However, one thing is clear - the challenge now is to survive. Both in a purely physical and economic sense. And what about the assurances from time to time that “the United States was the biggest winner” and that “it was not possible to squeeze shale oil” ... What would they object to, and at the same time very clever Bloomberg, who made Russia the only loser? Here, perhaps, only the American argument will fit - and not immediately in the “voices of the Kremlin” will be recorded again. Well, if you please, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that US oil production this year could drop by 0,5 million barrels per day, and in 2021 by another 0,7 million barrels per day. But other calculations: according to the Kansas City Fed, if the price of WTI crude oil averages $ 30 per barrel, about 40% of the state’s oil and gas companies will be insolvent over the next 12 months. Standard Chartered at such a cost of "black gold" predicts a decrease in oil production in the US by 4 million barrels per day by the end of 2021. Well, and finally, the main thing - according to estimates by the same EIA, the United States will return to becoming a net importer of oil and oil products in the third quarter of this year, and will remain in this status until at least 2021! Here it is - a long-term perspective ... I am not saying that this data is the ultimate truth, and that we must pray for it - but this, I emphasize, is the data of American industry experts and analysts. Maybe they know better?

Otherwise, you can even get to the level of "sources" like a certain Oleg Belokolos from the "unfathomable", enthusiastically broadcasting that "the Kremlin lost the oil war to the West." The head of the board of the "Maidan of Foreign Affairs", by the way. He begins his fantasies by re-singing all the same ideas about “Russia's destruction of its reputation and budget” and “US invincibility”, and it ends in general enchantingly. It turns out that the final kirdyk of the "gas station country" he hates will inevitably come, even if oil prices soar again! This is how, by 2050 (!) The year “more than 50% of the world automobile transport” will switch to electric traction, and “all industrialized countries” - to renewable energy sources, this will happen. And then Russia "will have no money left for military programs, propaganda and the" fifth column "in different countries." The next stage of the Napoleonic dreams of Mr. Belokolos is, obviously, a yellow-black flag over the Kremlin ... I will not comment on it due to sheer delirium - both the conclusions and, most importantly, the prerequisites for them. I can only say that the current OPEC + agreement can indeed become for Russia something like an economic “Brest Peace”. We’ll survive the insult. Losses will be compensated. The main thing is to withstand and wisely use the time gained as a result of his conclusion. To prevent the collapse of the ruble, the collapse of the economy, the collapse of the oil industry. Stay in the markets, defeat the pandemic. And then we'll see who lost.

Alexander the Wild

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Sergey Latyshev

0

April 14 2020 09: 35

Even the title shows the author.
Now, after the demarches of Sechin, the 2nd person of the Russian Federation, it is for sure that "Oil Brest Peace is the best scenario for Russia." Because the other is gone.
Nick

0

April 14 2020 09: 37

For people who are near, only one thing is clear, Russia agreed to a decrease in production, which means it lost. For people with some knowledge and analytical skills, it is known that everyone, even the United States, has signed up to reduce production. The United States, by the way, according to our minister A. Novak, is taking on a reduction of as much as 3 million barrels per day, more than Russia and the Saudis. It turns out, in terms of reducing production, everyone lost. But Russia still won. Russia, which forced to agree to a reduction in all major oil producers, defended its traditional sales markets, and the United States, which entered into the deal, will no longer be able to impose sanctions against the Russian oil industry, including increasing export duties on Russian energy carriers to the United States. Which was actually the main goal of A. Novak. In addition, given the volume of reduced production and the volume of demand, oil prices will be set in a range convenient for Russia from $ 40 to $ 50 per barrel, which will allow Russia to maintain its financial reserves. This price is acceptable for Trump. Of course, this price will not allow the United States to develop shale oil production, but the American shale will not suffer a landslide collapse either.
The hardest thing for the Saudis. Their budget is based on the price of $ 80 per barrel and the SA will have to spend their gold reserves, which will be enough for such oil prices by 3 years. Or they will have to reduce the level of consumption of citizens, which is fraught for a monarchy torn by conspiracies and intrigues at the top.
1. Arkharov
  
  -3
  
  April 14 2020 10: 11
  
  .. Their budget is based on the price of $ 80 per barrel.
  
  - already got those 80th dollars. Well, they won't build a couple of 40-story palaces in the middle of the desert with golden toilets and rooftop pools, and that’s all. With their aboriginal population, all this is ridiculous ....
  1. Zenon Zenon
    
    +6
    
    April 14 2020 11: 08
    
    Well, they will not build a couple of 40-story palaces in the middle of the desert with golden toilets and rooftop pools. With their aboriginal population, all this is ridiculous ....
    
    It would be funny if it weren't so sad ... You forgot about kickbacks and payments to the population included in this amount. Do you naively believe that the sheikhs will pay out of their own pockets with a price tag of 20 candy wrappers per barrel? Or do sheikhs have eggs of steel to hammer away the discontent of the population, who will be deprived of these payments?
    1. Arkharov
      
      -6
      
      April 14 2020 11: 39
      
      Not critical, judging by their behavior lately, they are not fools sitting there. They will find a "golden mean" between the palaces and some reduction in payments. It's bad when there are no similar payments in other places at all.
      1. Zenon Zenon
        
        +5
        
        April 14 2020 14: 04
        
        Not critical, judging by their behavior recently, not fools are sitting there.
        
        But this is ridiculous. If not fools - then why did the 1st ones twitch? Press from the owner or eggs in fact glass?
        PS And yes, you change the topic of conversation with gorenina91, she likes to crackle instead of answering uncomfortable questions - "about birds". Your opus about "It's bad when there are no similar payments in other places at all." does not in any way refer to your words about the Saudis, who do not care about everything, they will buy fewer toilets ...
        
        Arkharov
        
        -5
        
        April 14 2020 14: 21
        
        Who twitched there, did not twitch, I judge only by the result. And judging by the prospects. And I remain on "about fools / not fools" with my opinion.
        
        Zenon Zenon
        
        +5
        
        April 14 2020 14: 39
        
        So what is the result in the context of your statements about “the Saudis don't care about the price tag”? In the fact that you got rid of the popular unrest and began to scream about an extraordinary OPEC + collection? Or is it that the masters of the Saudis got shit out of the realization of the collapse of shale = heaps of unemployed from this industry and payments = negative before the elections and ordered the Saudis to scream louder?
        
        Arkharov
        
        -2
        
        April 14 2020 17: 47
        
        And you have no other options for "who to whine" for us? For some reason, only two? If I'm not mistaken, there was something like this development of events:
        
        March 5 - Russia rejects the proposal to reduce production by 0,3 million barrels per day and the OPEC deal falls apart
        April 8 - Russia is ready to reduce production by 1,6 million barrels per day.
        April 9 - Russia is ready to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day.
        
        The Russian Federation will be much more difficult than other countries when restoring oil demand, re-preserve their wells and increase production, ”said Konstantin Simonov, director general of the National Energy Security Fund.
        According to him, unlike Russia, the USA and Saudi Arabia are able to quickly increase and quickly reduce oil production due to the technical features of production in these countries.
        
        In Russia, in turn, this is an extremely laborious and costly process. “If we are going to such a monstrous reduction in production, then later, if we have to quickly restore production, we will have the hardest time for all of the three,” Simonov said on the radio channel “Moscow Speaks.”
        
        Zenon Zenon
        
        +6
        
        April 14 2020 18: 01
        
        Once again: - Yes, I do not care about the forecasts of Simonov and others. You have stated above that the Saud do not care - now you are trying to get off the topic, which is "uncomfortable" for you, where you were simply pushed onto any others, just to divert it aside. All that you have listed is sheer bullshit, if you start from HOW you played out this story.
        
        ... then, if necessary to quickly restore production, we will have the most difficult of all of this three ...
        
        - this is just a forecast, but the fact that the United States acted as a supplicant before the whole world, which bends before the "hegemon," is a fact. With far-reaching consequences, and to a greater extent negative for the "hegemon". It's just another (after the hyped patriots, the scammers of the Kurds, the washing out of the DPRK issues, etc.) an indicator that the "hegemon" is rotten ... And this is worth a lot, Russia does not print candy wrappers (whose position, by the way, is shaking further) therefore cannot afford to act like mattresses.
        
        Arkharov
        
        -3
        
        April 14 2020 18: 10
        
        Where do you get all this from, as a thimble-giver from the 90s, you try to rearrange and juggle facts, interspersed with fakes, but here, if you don’t rearrange, the result seems to be the same? Are you still trying to rub in "at least a stuffed animal, at least a carcass" about another economic and geopolitical victory ?! I sincerely sympathize with you, to do this convincingly is very difficult, and probably impossible.
        
        Zenon Zenon
        
        +5
        
        April 14 2020 18: 19
        
        Already funny). And where are the fakes? Is TRAMP asking to settle disagreements at OPEC +? The fact that the Saudis first began to yell about an extraordinary meeting, that the patriots were scolded by the same Saudis and the big-star mattresses mumbled all garbage? Is the mattress waving a saber towards the DPRK and quietly merging from the conflict after another rocket test? The fact that the Kurds (their allies as be) stupidly thrown?
        
        Arkharov
        
        -3
        
        April 14 2020 18: 26
        
        I’m trying to bring you out for the tenth time to evaluate the results of all this action, this time you start telling me about anything: Koreans, Kurds, some glass eggs, someone’s patriots, not good reptilians, and the planet Nibiru, in any way to get away from the topic. Perhaps we will end this pointless discussion.
2. The comment was deleted.
3. master3
  
  -1
  
  April 16 2020 16: 38
  
  You, dear "expert", need to watch less TV - this is harmful!
  The Russian Federation was actually "put in cancer".
  
  The Russian Federation was allowed to enter the negotiating table not in the usual mode, but with the precondition that the Russian Federation would assume obligations equal to the obligations of Arabia, which has never happened before.
  As a result, Putin made commitments that could have irreversible consequences for the Russian oil industry. Unlike in Arabia, where oil production is stopped and resumed with a touch of a button, the Russian Federation has big problems. Arabian oil leaves the reservoir under pressure and does not need additional extraction technologies, but in the Russian Federation it needs to be pulled out of the reservoir, and if this process is stopped, the well will instantly degrade and can be decommissioned in a few months, since restoration will cost unrealistic money.
  Arabia threw off the price for China and India by another $ 4,2 to the discount that was valid until that time. China will be able to buy Saudi oil even cheaper. But that's not all.
  
  Aramco left its OSP for Arab light oil to Northwest Europe unchanged since April with a discount of $ 10,25 per barrel for ICE Brent.
  
  This means that the killer discounts that Arabs have given consumers in Northern Europe since the start of the oil war with the Russian Federation and which have virtually paralyzed Russian exports are still valid. But this is a knockout. In both major Russian markets, Arabia plays tough and aggressive against the Russian Federation and vice versa, the States were given relief just for this beauty. Simply put, Trump and the Prince of Arabia have agreed that Aramco will not receive profit in the States, but will compensate for it in other markets where the Russian Federation operates. States - do not mind.
  
  And this is not just a victory, but Putin’s victory. Not only was he forced to cut production, but he was also asked from the markets
  1. 123
    
    +1
    
    April 18 2020 15: 21
    
    The Russian Federation was allowed to enter the negotiating table not in the usual mode, but with the precondition that the Russian Federation would assume obligations equal to the obligations of Arabia, which has never happened before.
    
    Did you come up with this yourself?
    
    As a result, Putin made commitments that could have irreversible consequences for the Russian oil industry. Unlike in Arabia, where oil production is stopped and resumed with a touch of a button, the Russian Federation has big problems.
    
    And what are they poor tormented by? Tankers full, storage too? You call them, make them happy, otherwise the men don’t know.
    
    Arabia threw off the price for China and India by another $ 4,2 to the discount that was valid until that time. China will be able to buy Saudi oil even cheaper.
    
    But they still buy Russian.
    
    But that's not all.
    Aramco left its OSP for Arab light oil to Northwest Europe unchanged since April with a discount of $ 10,25 per barrel for ICE Brent.
    This means that the killer discounts that Arabs have given consumers in Northern Europe since the start of the oil war with the Russian Federation and which have virtually paralyzed Russian exports are still valid.
    
    This means that the tankers went on a journey with unsold oil and they stupidly do not know where to put it.
    Tell your brothers-in-arms about the "practically paralyzed Russian export".
    
    But this is a knockout.
    
    Don't force your brain, use the familiar word "remog".
    
    In both major Russian markets, Arabia plays tough and aggressive against the Russian Federation and vice versa, the States were given relief just for this beauty. Simply put, Trump and the Prince of Arabia have agreed that Aramco will not receive profit in the States, but will compensate for it in other markets where the Russian Federation operates.
    
    And what are these markets? Odessa import? Can specific examples, preferably with numbers?
    
    States - do not mind.
    
    Once upon a time, they close the rigs.
    
    And this is not just a victory, but Putin’s victory. Not only was he forced to cut production, but he was also asked from the markets
    
    Stop lying, storyteller. From which market did they "ask"? And cut? So now everyone is cutting.
    1. master3
      
      -1
      
      April 22 2020 11: 58
      
      Stop lying, storyteller.
      
      - European refineries (this is traditionally the Russian market), among which Royal Dutch Shell Plc, BP Plc, Total SA, OMV AG, Repsol SA and Cepsa SA were purchased from Arabs, the trader of the Russian Lukoil Litasco and Phillips 66 can also receive additional batches of Saudi oil.
      
      The Turkish STAR refinery of the Azerbaijani state-owned company SOCAR, which was launched in 2019 and mainly processes Urals, has placed an application for the purchase of 3 million barrels of Saudi oil.
      
      Belarusians held talks in London, China signed a supply contract.
      - learn mat. part, "Thomas".
      1. 123
        
        +2
        
        April 22 2020 13: 05
        
        European refineries (this is traditionally the Russian market), including Royal Dutch Shell Plc, BP Plc, Total SA, OMV AG, Repsol SA and Cepsa SA purchased from Arabs
        
        So good luck in processing them, and when will they remodel their refineries for other grades of oil?
        
        trader of Russian Lukoil Litasco and Phillips 66 may also receive additional batches of Saudi oil
        
        May receive, or may not receive. How to receive, or at least buy, then we will discuss.
        
        The Turkish STAR refinery of the Azerbaijani state-owned company SOCAR, which was launched in 2019 and mainly processes Urals, has placed a request for the purchase of 3 million barrels of Saudi oil
        
        News from March 12th. 40 days have passed, where can I read about the results of the purchase? The Saudis are still thinking of selling - not selling?
        
        Belarusians held talks in London
        
        And they pour Russian oil into all the tanks that are available.
        
        China signed a supply contract
        
        What are the contracts? Delivery of what? Who did you sign up with?
        In general, nonsense of the gray mare "Erema".
Arkharov

0

April 14 2020 09: 45

I think the best scenario was: not "experiment" a month ago.
1. Marzhecki
  
  +1
  
  April 14 2020 11: 00
  
  Indisputable remark. If mistakes are not recognized and not guilty of them, dismissing pathological amateurs like Sechin and Miller with a wolf ticket, then such failures will be repeated again and again.
  And the margin of safety in Russia is not unlimited.
2. Nick
  
  +1
  
  April 14 2020 16: 11
  
  Quote: Arkharov
  I think the best scenario was: not "experiment" a month ago.
  
  It only seems to you.
  1. Arkharov
    
    -2
    
    April 14 2020 17: 51
    
    You have unjustified joyous optimism about what happened at the level of a 3-month-old puppy. In adults, the similar is sometimes called: "dementia and courage." I am afraid you will not convince the more or less thinking people of anything.
    1. Nick
      
      +1
      
      April 14 2020 17: 53
      
      Quote: Arkharov
      You have a joyful optimism about what happened at the level of a 3-month-old puppy. In adults, this is also called "dementia and courage."
      
      I do not recommend evaluating others on my own. Sometimes fraught.
steelmaker

-1

April 14 2020 10: 11

We’ll survive the insult. Losses will be compensated.

For the past 30 years, they have only robbed Russia and cannot rob it in any way. Losses at our expense at the expense of the people were always reimbursed, and for the insult always an increase in the position followed. As long as the hucksters rule - so be it. As long as our government prays for the dollar, the US will prosper. Therefore, it is more likely to surrender to the United States. The robbery of Russia continues!
gorenina91

-2

April 14 2020 11: 30

Yes, humiliation was burning, shame immeasurable, territorial and material losses - colossal. But there is, in the end, a difference - to lose a lot or lose everything ?!

- Yes, it wasn’t so burning ... - What is burning here ??? - Especially since Soviet Russia regained everything and won ... - And then Germany was so bent into a ram’s horn that it couldn’t even utter a sound for more than 10 years ... - Germany had to answer for its arrogance and adherence during the conclusion of the Brest Peace with Russia ...- Although not Russia then bent it to the very ground, but still ...- then Germany was well poked with the nose ...- it didn’t seem enough ...
- And about Hitler ... then - this is a completely different story ...
- Time has passed and ... and ... for Russia today this is much more burning:
- This is much more burning ... this:

November 24, 2015. The front-line bomber Su-24M VKS of the Russian Federation, part of the Russian aviation group in Syria, was shot down by an air-to-air missile launched by the Turkish Air Force F-16C fighter in the area of the Syrian-Turkish border at an altitude of about 6000 meters, and fell on the territory of the Syrian Latakia province in the Bayirbujak region.

But this remained unanswered ... - Turkey went unpunished and imagines itself to be an omnipotent super power; and Russia was never able to regain its reputation among the Arab states and continued (and still is) to please Turkey ... - What, Russia has already forgotten all this ??? But the Arabs remember everything ...- What is wrong ??? - Tell me ...
- Well, that’s me so ... - by the way I had to ...
- Concerning

"The obscene OPEC +" or the collapse of the economy?

- Regarding this topic, I personally have already stated several times in several similar topics ...- how much can I repeat myself ...:
- This is an oil tragedy for the whole world - with a fall in oil prices; with a reduction in oil production, etc ... - For Russia, this is no tragedy ... and even more so - there is no reason to mention the "Brest Peace" ...
- Russia is no longer bound by any agreements with Opek + ...- why should Russia continue to consult and take "permission labels" y Opek + on its personal commercial affairs for trading its own Russian oil ??? - Who makes Russia do this ??? - The fear of Russian illiterate oligarchs, who are afraid that the Americans will not give them a dead C grade for their weak brains, but will roll a stake for stupidity and complete inability to conduct world commercial affairs ... - Moreover, they will deprive them of the stolen financial and material
(real estate) of the state they found outside of Russia ..
- Here are just illiterate and unprofessional Russian oligarchs and are a brake and insurmountable obstacle to successful business in commercial Russian "oil and gas affairs" (if we are talking about this particular area of activity) ... - And the United States, Saudi. Arabia ... Opek ..., oil prices, etc ... are all just a reason ... to somehow cover up their ... mediocrity ...
Oleg Rambover

-1

April 14 2020 11: 53

A small excursion into history, "Brest-Litovsk Peace" is a documentary confirmation of Russia's defeat in WWI. The exit from this enslaving world is connected with the defeat of Germany in the war and has nothing to do with the actions of the Soviet government. The role of the Bolsheviks in this defeat should not be overestimated, but it should not be underestimated either.

The revolutionary class in a reactionary war cannot but wish to defeat its government.

The smallest evil would now be immediately - the defeat of tsarism in this war. For tsarism is a hundred times worse than Kaiserism.

Guess who said that?

On the supply of financing for the Bolsheviks by the Germans - a debatable issue. But it is reliably known that the Germans and Austrians allocated money for the revolution in Russia, the question is whether they came.
And Lenin’s delivery through Germany, accompanied by German intelligence officers, is also not in doubt (what would happen to him if he did something similar in 41-45?).

And yes, a month ago, the deal did not fundamentally change anything, production would have to be reduced still. The Russian Federation lost money because of it and weakened its position in the current negotiations, but it is unlikely that much has changed. Sechin just served as a trigger.
1. Arkharov
  
  0
  
  April 14 2020 13: 46
  
  It is absolutely true, if it were not for the events in Germany itself, it is not known how all this would end for that Russia. A rare case of luck for the Bolsheviks.
boriz

+3

April 14 2020 13: 21

Yes, Russia agreed in March to reduce by as much as you want - today this topic would have arisen again!

Gold words. All crawlers always consider the problem in a simplified way.
And in this problem, politics, economics, oil logistics, and the range of varieties of oil in each country are linked.
Why is Mexico so brazen? After all, Trump took over the quota of Mexico. Why is the US not participating in OPEC + meetings? Is it only from greyhound? Will the signatory countries really produce the amount of oil that the quota gives them the right to? And if they get it, can they sell it?
Here, for example, is a fresh fact.

https://aurora.network/articles/140-jenergetika/78442-s-soobshhila-o-priostanovke-neftjanymi-kompanijami-ssha-dobychi

By the way, another question: why did the Texas company become the first?
When Russia is declared a loser, they forget (or do not want to remember) that the era has changed from the beginning of March to the beginning of April. And no one guarantees that in a month and a half, you will not have to revise this agreement either. And that the initiator of the meeting was Trump. He acted as a petitioner.
Russia has flaws in preparing for such an oil crisis. But this is not Sechin’s folly (which is not, in fact). And the main sadness is the presence of a liberal government and the leadership of the Central Bank. They did not allow investing in the creation of strategic oil storage facilities. And there is no time for their creation. We have to make up for the production of catalysts for refineries. Despite the fact that there is its own scientific and production base for the development of these things, the liberals failed to destroy it. It is only necessary to create enterprises for their serial production. And now the West can at any time block our supply of catalysts and will have to purchase oil products on the side.
But Russia has a lot of advantages that will allow to bypass competitors in the struggle for the buyer. This is a fantastic pipeline system. Very on time, 10 years ahead of schedule, oil pipelines were launched with access to China and the shipping terminal on the Pacific coast. This will increase sales of our light oil to China and Asia as a whole. When they talk about our oil, they recall only Urals, which is quoted at a discount of $ 5 to Brent. But they don’t remember that Russia has 6 export brands of oil. For example, ESPO is quoted at + $ 5 to Brent. The launch of the ESPO pipeline will allow ESPO to increase its share in oil exports from 12,5% to 25%.
And among these 6 grades, the Russian Federation has both heavy and light oil brands. Whereas the USA does not have its heavy oil.
In the United States, clearly from a great mind, some organizations offer to issue privateer certificates for hunting Chinese merchant ships. Of course, this is a provocation. But China is already well aware of the vulnerability of its trade logistics in a narrow corridor in the Singapore area in the worsening situation. Hence the aggravation around the disputed islands, where China is creating military bases to protect its trade in the area. And here a rhetorical question arises: who will buy oil from China, from KSA (with its tanker transportation, which is also more expensive), or from the Russian Federation, which has taken care to route the pipeline directly to China? And on the coast of China, far from the pipe, it can be delivered by tankers from the terminal in the Nakhodka area. Without entering the zone of risky shipping and under the protection of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and China in the immediate vicinity of their native shores.
Well, politics cannot be ignored. Trump has an election in November. And all sane leaders of states wish him victory. And his international bankers have already set you up with an unprecedented collapse of the exchange and an epidemic of coronavirus. He needs to be given the opportunity to save face.
Answers to all the questions asked at the beginning of the comment will take up a lot of space, and without them you can’t understand the current situation.
Although for those who just want to once again cough up "Everything is lost", this is not a hindrance.
Alexander Semenov

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April 14 2020 13: 46

About the fact that Russia itself carved itself, only the lazy one did not write ... the point is different, what to do next ... Our miracle leaders, as always, are in dreams that everything will work out and work out ... And here it is there is a big question. They say that the oil market will now be completely rebuilt for strong economies, hence the cheap price and quotas, and something else, this is something no one knows yet. Either supply oil or leave the market!
1. 123
  
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  April 14 2020 21: 21
  
  About the fact that Russia itself carved itself, only the lazy did not write ... the thing is different, what to do next ...
  
  I know what's next. Then you need to be carved, maybe you get smarter.
  1. Alexander Semenov
    
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    April 14 2020 23: 33
    
    I really want to see if you give the address or find it yourself ... you are our witty.
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        April 15 2020 00: 53
        
        I do not need your teachings.
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April 14 2020 21: 20

What "Brest Peace" are you talking about? Reduce the production of everything. Go through the site, just wrote, in Texas, the oil fields were closed with a stick.
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April 18 2020 15: 25

Marzhetsky (Sergey)
Indisputable remark. If mistakes are not recognized and not guilty of them, dismissing pathological amateurs like Sechin and Miller with a wolf ticket, then such failures will be repeated again and again.
And the margin of safety in Russia is not unlimited.

An interesting idea, to your superiors to read, and draw the appropriate conclusions. I even came up with a motto for the editors - "Every amateur gets a magic pendel."