Russia had to abandon plans for the ruin of US shale


The “oil war” between Russia, on the one hand, the United States and Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, ended with a predictable result. Specially trained people and their voluntary assistants are now trying to put it as "our common victory."


But is this really so, and what conclusions can be drawn at the end of the "oil jihad"?

Russian President’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said:

There are no losers. Only the winners. Both producers, and consumers of oil, and the world win economy altogether, which could plunge into chaos if the deal were toppled.

We will return five weeks ago when Energy Minister Alexander Novak slammed the door loudly at an OPEC + meeting in Vienna. Then, our country was required to reduce production by 0,5 million barrels per day, since oil consumption around the world began to fall due to the general economic situation, which was extremely negatively affected by the coronavirus pandemic and forced universal quarantine.

If anyone managed to forget, we recall that the head of Rosneft Igor Sechin directly “rolled a barrel” at the producers of American shale oil, naively expecting that they would be the first to leave the market:

By the end of the year, I assume that the price may return to the level of up to $ 60, provided that there will be a release of shale oil from the market.


About why this is impossible in principle, we wrote detail earlier. However, such obvious things were too tough for one of the highest paid top managers in the country. Several years ago, information leaked to the press that the monthly salary of Igor Ivanovich is from 15 to 20 million rubles, plus a bonus of 150% of the total annual salary, plus an additional payment for participation in the board, work with information that is a state secret, as well as bonuses for the implementation of significant projects. Vice-presidents of the company get a “little” less.

In theory, for such money everything should just "fly", but in practice it turns out somehow not very. Back to the unpleasant facts. Saudi Arabia responded to the demarche inspired by Rosneft by initiating price dumping and increasing production. Other players in the market also increased production volumes, except for Russia, which turned out to be competitive only in terms of colossal salaries and bonuses to top managers. And then it all ended with a deliberately predictable result, about which we We wrote earlier.

Oil prices fell, pulling gas. For our country, tightly planted on an oil and gas needle, this turned out to be a complete disaster, a little delayed in time due to the NWF reserves. Domestic propagandists beat themselves in the chest, threatening to crush the American shale industry, and at the same time the Saudis, into powder. We are on the "Reporter" in advance warnedthat it won’t be able to continue for a long time, and the result will be disastrous for Russia.

Nevertheless, everything turned out exactly as we predicted. Instead of the promised 6-10 years, the Russian leadership had enough for 1 month. The OPEC + 2.0 deal was concluded on extremely unfavorable conditions for Russia. If in early March it was a question of reducing production by 0,5 million barrels, now it is 2,5 million, that is, 5 times more. And this despite the fact that we could not increase production, that is, this is a giant retaliatory strike against the domestic oil industry, which provoked the management of Rosneft itself.

For some reason, no one is talking about the bankruptcy of American shales anymore, that is, the task set by Igor Sechin completely failed. Like us and We wrote earlier, USA did not join the OPEC + 2.0 deal. Yes, they reduced production by 250 thousand barrels, as a mockery, 10 times less than Russia, which wanted to “bankrupt” them. But this was done not within the framework of a new deal, but purely for economic reasons, due to a decrease in demand. This means that at any time, American shale producers will be able to increase production again, not bound by any restrictions, and Russian will not be able to because of quotas.

So answer yourself honestly to the question whether our country has lost in the "oil jihad" or not.
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  1. steelmaker Online
    steelmaker April 13 2020 12: 11
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    Instead of the promised 6-10 years, the Russian leadership had enough for 1 month.

    And now these experts are fans about their forecasts and do not remember. Squealing with joy that the deal was a success, with their grunting fans!

    A well-fed hungry man and a rich poor man - NEVER will understand!
    1. Rum rum Offline
      Rum rum (Rum rum) April 15 2020 02: 24
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      1) As I understand it, the barrel has already risen to a price that is comfortable for oil shale and Saudi?
      Really, pan Marzhetsky?
      2) What 6-10 years are you talking about? (This is gold - foreign exchange reserves - in case of crisis.)
      Is the crisis over?
      3) Russia, it seems, went to meet everyone, even pulled someone else to the deal, everyone is happy, but nothing has changed. Is this ugly done?
  2. Wooh Offline
    Wooh (Barmaley) April 13 2020 12: 15
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    All these effective managers (Sechin, Millers, etc.) have long been given. . . stirrer. They can't, because they’re stupid. Ukram and Arabs n ..... and except for their own pockets to fill any miracles.
    angry
    1. Monster_Fat Offline
      Monster_Fat (What's the difference) April 13 2020 13: 55
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      Well, why should the screamers survive, they are always accustomed to compensate for losses in the domestic market, due to the invented notorious "tax maneuver" (the Russian people are so rich, how much is the middle class with 17000 rubles = $ 250 lol):

      Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that a ban on the import of cheap gasoline into Russia is proposed for six months. According to him, this is a forced anti-crisis measure.

      “This is an anti-crisis measure, it is proposed for six months,” RIA Novosti quoted him as saying.

      He called such a step forced. At the same time, Novak added that many countries are currently resorting to this measure.

      https://russian.rt.com/business/news/736891-novak-benzin-rossiya

      Where there is “half a year”, there is “year”: I don’t remember something, there is no cheaper gasoline in Russia after gas, from the word "generally". yes
  3. Sergey Latyshev Offline
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) April 13 2020 13: 48
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    But Sechin’s salary is not “from 15 to 20 million rubles,” but 10 times more (with allowances, EU).

    The figure 3-4-5 million per day (only salaries, without other incomes) was repeatedly voiced, for example, by State Duma deputies, and the internet has both official numbers and calculations.
    1. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 13 2020 16: 47
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      15-20 is a salary, it is written. And everything else - bonuses and surcharges.
      1. Sergey Latyshev Offline
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) April 13 2020 16: 55
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        Yes. Thank.
        Therefore, I have written "salary". Probably not entirely clear.
        And "15 to 20" - found that the data is 5 years ago. Is it so?
        1. Marzhecki Offline
          Marzhecki (Sergei) April 13 2020 17: 24
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          Yes, there was a data leak. After all, Rosneft was not created on the basis of federal law, it has the right to hide the real income of its top managers. The guys are pretty good, right?
          1. Sergey Latyshev Offline
            Sergey Latyshev (Serge) April 13 2020 17: 32
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            Stumble. 2 pax in the country, they wrote.
  4. Alexander Semenov (Alexander Semenov) April 13 2020 13: 58
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    I hope this was the first act of the Marlezon ballet, we are waiting for the second ... which will bury the effective management of Oil and Gas of the Russian Federation.
    1. Monster_Fat Offline
      Monster_Fat (What's the difference) April 13 2020 15: 19
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      Do not bury. They still need to figure out who directs this entire Kremlin camarilla. It seems to me that Putin is not in the first place there .... wink
  5. Vladimir_ Voronov (Vladimir) April 13 2020 16: 04
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    Marzhetsky, judging by the reviews that were left to you at the end, as well as the response of importance 1. More adequate site visitors no longer respond to your writings. I think this is my last response to your articles.
    1. rotkiv04 Offline
      rotkiv04 (Victor) April 13 2020 19: 23
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      As the saying goes, in a good way, an adequate putinoid.
  6. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 13 2020 16: 42
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    Quote: Vladimir_Voronov
    Marzhetsky, judging by the reviews that were left to you at the end, as well as the response of importance 1. More adequate site visitors no longer respond to your writings. I think this is my last response to your articles.

    Well, you definitely do not belong to adequate guests. hi Others like you just have nothing to say in the case. They already prefer to remain prudently silent, and do the right thing, by the way.
    By the way, I’ll manage perfectly without your feedback.
  7. cmonman Offline
    cmonman (Garik Mokin) April 13 2020 17: 18
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    Sergey, you’re right - Sechin’s shortsightedness brought huge damage to Russia. Not only economic, but also political.
    Info today from Bloomberg:

    "Putin is seeking a painful retreat when he asks for peace in the oil war."

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin-makes-painful-climbdown-sues-073012944.html

    “Given the collapse of markets, Putin agreed to cut more than 2,5 million barrels of oil per day from 11 million combined oil and condensate in Russia every day, more than four times more than at the beginning of March and more than Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, hopes that the US will officially declare its restrictions have evaporated, despite the fact that Trump took a loan to conclude a new deal. The ill-fated decision to confront Saudi Arabia in early March was “a strategic mistake, and now we are paying a price much higher than we could pay,” said Andrei Kortunov, director of the Kremlin-based Russian Foreign Affairs Council. “It looks like a victory for the United States, and Russia ultimately loses more than Saudi Arabia.” However, Russia was completely unable to foresee the devastating impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy when it refused an agreement with other major manufacturers known as OPEC +, a senior Russian official said. Combining this alliance would prevent prices from dropping to the low of nearly two decades that followed. Now the Kremlin had to negotiate a new agreement on extremely unfavorable terms, he said. ”
    “Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov spoke out in defense of the new deal on Friday. “There are no losers, only winners,” he told reporters at a conference call. The main state-run television news program on Sunday hailed the pact as "unconditional success." But this deal marks a change in Putin’s desire to restore Russia's global influence, especially in the Middle East, where he has become a key player, playing in places like Libya and Syria. How big this failure will be depends on whether the new deal is enough to reverse the market debacle and limit the economic pain for the Kremlin.
    While Russian officials have made gallant faces in recent weeks, oil prices have plummeted, leading to a sharp drop in the ruble exchange rate and forcing the central bank to sell dollars to stabilize the market, the Kremlin was alarmed by potential economic damage.
    1. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 13 2020 17: 23
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      It was all absolutely obvious, I wrote about this for a month. For this I was blamed by a crowd of cheers-patriots. And even now, for some reason, they personally offend me, like small children, and not those who actually mow. Very strange people.
    2. Nick Offline
      Nick (Nikolai) April 13 2020 19: 08
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      Quote: cmonman
      Sergey, you’re right - Sechin’s shortsightedness brought huge damage to Russia. Not only economic, but also political.
      Info today from Bloomberg ..

      Garik, Bloomberg is just one of the means of propaganda. He claims that either without relying on facts, or interpreting them incorrectly.
      1. cmonman Offline
        cmonman (Garik Mokin) April 13 2020 19: 31
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        Bloomberg wrote an analytical review based on the fact of the surrender of Russia's positions. Can you give / make / write your review from the fact of the agreement between Russia and the SA? Please do ...
        1. Nick Offline
          Nick (Nikolai) April 13 2020 19: 43
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          Quote: cmonman
          Bloomberg wrote an analytical review based on the fact of the surrender of Russia's positions.

          The fact is that there was no fact of losing positions. A compromise was found that suited everyone in one way or another, in the current conditions. As for Russia, it has achieved its goals. All major manufacturers agreed to reduce production, including the Americans. Thus, Russia ensured the protection of its traditional markets from encroachments of other countries, primarily the United States. Well, in addition, by pulling the United States into a deal to reduce production, Russia protected its oil workers from American sanctions.
          1. cmonman Offline
            cmonman (Garik Mokin) April 13 2020 19: 58
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            All major manufacturers agreed to reduce production, including the Americans.

            But you yourself demand facts, but you do not have them. A month ago, the SA asked to reduce production by 0.5 million barrels, but Russia slammed the door. A compromise of 2.5 million bar has now been reached. The difference is how many times? And in whose favor?
            C'mon man !!!!
            1. The comment was deleted.
              1. 321 Offline
                321 (321) April 14 2020 11: 35
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                Quote: Marzhetsky
                It’s impossible to explain anything to such people: in a sense, they are insane ....

                Now, an un respectable author, but you could not do without rudeness? I’ve got your petroleum topics light, I came across your opus in the tape, it's time to ask the author’s name to be written above, in the heading of the article, to know who wrote - I definitely won’t read your opus, what can I learn from the boor? am
  8. Nick Offline
    Nick (Nikolai) April 13 2020 18: 17
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    Despite the recommendations, Marzhetsky again disgraces himself with his articles, trying to pass off wishful thinking. It can be seen that employers demand more negativity, well, "comrade" is trying, as best he can, to the best of his ability.
    It is immediately evident that the title of the article does not correspond to its content. It seems that the article was conceived as an opportunity to remind the reader of Mr. Sechin’s income, calculated on the part of the audience that prefers to sin by all kinds of activities, counting money in someone else’s pockets, instead of earning it with their own labor. Well, the topic that the author put in the title is not disclosed at all. Neither facts nor arguments in support. In a word - Khultur.
    1. The comment was deleted.
      1. Cyril Offline
        Cyril (Kirill) April 14 2020 07: 40
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        When the cheer patriot has no logical counterarguments, he begins to accuse the opponent of having “employers” who “pay him”.

        Old as the world. And very primitive.
      2. The comment was deleted.
  9. Brancodd Offline
    Brancodd April 13 2020 18: 28
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    Do not rush to conclusions. How will it all end - we will still see.
    I am not sure that the start of a price war was initiated by Russia. Rather, positions were agreed with Saudi Arabia. Of course, I do not have accurate information that this is so. But you also do not have reliable information that Russia started the war. Saudis have repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with the behavior of non-OPEC countries, especially the United States. And here mutual interest was visible. But when the conflict began, no one understood it yet; there were consequences of the epidemic's influence on demand. But a month later, it turned out that the very decision to reduce or increase production is no longer decisive for the balance. There is no sense to continue pulling the rope, as, incidentally, the new agreement will have a microscopic effect. Now overproduction of 20 million barrels per day. The reduction does not eliminate half of the overproduction. From this whole situation, the US shale industry has suffered serious damage. The number of working wells continues to decrease. Now these are 728 active installations. And this process cannot be stopped by any agreements to reduce production. Need a price of at least $ 44 per barrel. And this will not happen, apparently, for a long time. But worst of all from this story will be Canada. There, the cost of shale sands is about $ 58. Most Brazilian and Norwegian mining will suffer. Closer to the fall we will hear a cry. They will demand a new meeting and a drop in production of 20 million barrels. It turns out that by no contract will the excess oil be removed from the market. It will naturally die off production at previously seemingly cost-effective oil fields. And the gas, by the way, is the same. For example, the entire Australian gas bubble will collapse to a marginal level. So let's not rush to conclusions, let's wait ...
  10. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 14 2020 09: 36
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    I advise you to follow the example of the "brothers in mind" who have quieted down and not go broke unnecessarily on a topic where you are 100% wrong. In theory, it should be a shame.
    1. Brancodd Offline
      Brancodd April 14 2020 12: 07
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      But essentially have something to say? Good advice, do not give advice when you are not asked. Article - the density is ringing, you are our bashful.
  11. Brancodd Offline
    Brancodd April 15 2020 12: 24
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    According to the US Department of Energy, by the end of 2020, the country's oil production will be reduced by at least 2 million barrels per day. However, it is possible that due to the deteriorating market situation, the United States will reduce production even by 3 million barrels. This was stated by US Secretary of Energy Dan Bruyett during a video conference of the G20 countries. He believes that the coronavirus pandemic is the main factor that affects the collapse of the oil market, as demand for raw materials is rapidly declining.
  12. Masters Offline
    Masters (masters) April 15 2020 20: 03
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    The United States is cutting 2 million barrels of what to pull, Russia and the Saudis 2,5 million each
  13. Brancodd Offline
    Brancodd 14 May 2020 11: 16
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    The largest company California Resources warned investors of a possible bankruptcy. This was also stated by the shale giant Chesapeake Energy. Both firms were mired in debt, and a collapse in raw material prices left them no chance to pay ...
    Texas oil workers could not stand it. Parsley Energy closed 150 wells, Continental Resources cut production by a third, and Texland Petroleum completely. In April, one of the largest shale producers went bankrupt - Whiting Petroleum. Next up is Hornbeck Offshore Services.
    According to analysts, few will survive if the price of a barrel does not rise above $ 30 within a year. For profitability, shale producers need at least 50. According to the forecast of Pickering Energy Partners, almost 40% of companies this year will be on the verge of bankruptcy.

    http://agitpro.su/pervye-zhertvy-neftegazovye-giganty-ssha-obyavili-o-skorom-bankrotstve/?utm_source=finobzor.ru
  14. Brancodd Offline
    Brancodd 18 May 2020 17: 21
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    Something went wrong. 18.05.2020/XNUMX/XNUMX

    The reduction in the number of towers affected, including West Texas and the eastern part of the state of New Mexico, where the main oil and gas production in the USA is conducted. There, their number decreased to 175, which became the minimum figure since July 2016.

    Since the beginning of the year, the number of operating rigs in the United States has declined by 52%. More than 400 installations stopped working. The suspension of activity began in mid-March, when oil prices fell sharply after disruption of the OPEC + deal. Analysts suggest that this process will continue in the near future. Simmons Energy suggests that 215 drilling rigs will remain in the country next year and their recovery will be very slow. For comparison: in 2019, 943 units worked in the USA.

    https://www.rbc.ru/economics/18/05/2020/5ec270b39a7947734cf4bc30?from=from_main
    1. Brancodd Offline
      Brancodd 26 May 2020 01: 19
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      All this indirectly should please Russia and the world oil market as a whole. In fact, the calculation of Russia and others came true that the United States in any case will reduce shale production due to falling oil prices, although officially they refused to take on obligations under the new historical OPEC + deal. As a result, the market itself forced the American shale industry to leave the battlefield: the volume of reduction in oil production in the United States by 2,3 million per day was almost equal to the volume of decline in production that Russia and Saudi Arabia (each country) voluntarily went under the cartel agreement.
      Oil production at US shale deposits may fall by more than a third this year - below 5 million barrels per day. This will dramatically undermine US influence in global energy markets.

      https://vz.ru/economy/2020/5/25/1041277.html