Gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia may end faster than they expect


In the context of the “oil war” and the coronavirus pandemic, the Russian authorities flaunt the accumulated reserves, which, according to their statements, should last for 6-10 years. However, there are other opinions on this subject. Some Russian economists even believe that the country’s gold and currency reserves will be enough for the current negative dynamics for only a few months, and they will end by the summer of 2020.


How realistic is such a pessimistic forecast?

Independent analysts indicate that the budget is making up from the price of $ 42 per barrel, and today Russian oil is sold in Europe for $ 16-17. The NWF, which had previously been replenished with oil excess profits, is not rubber. The Central Bank, which surprisingly did not start on time policies “Dedollarization” and reduced the amount of “American” in its assets by almost half, due to the difference in exchange rates for one week of March, lost almost $ 30 billion, that is, 5,1% of its savings.

The overall situation is complicated by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic and the declared quarantine regimen throughout the country. The government will be forced to save large banks and oligarchs. Large amounts of budget funds will have to be spent on a non-working week, which, obviously, will have to be renewed again. Against this background, a recent decision to sell $ 5,33 billion worth of gold to the UK raises questions.

Much will depend on how long the quarantine lasts and whether Saudi Arabia and Russia can find a compromise by ending the “oil war”. If the non-working weeks are extended, the authorities will have to spend huge funds nationwide to stabilize the socialeconomic situation. Obviously, no reserves will last long. Even if Riyadh and Moscow agree among themselves, a quick rebound in oil prices will not work. Due to the pandemic, demand for hydrocarbons fell in China, the United States and Europe. In the case of normalization of the epidemiological situation, some growth can begin only closer to the fall.

Most likely, instead of 6-10 years, it is worth counting on a period of 1-1,5 years, for which there will be enough accumulated reserves. Already, the authorities intend to solve their problems by introducing a tax on interest on bank deposits of Russians. Most likely, in order to fulfill social obligations, the Government will be forced to turn on the printing press. The inevitable result in this case will be inflation. The state’s money, of course, will not end, it’s just that they will cost differently.
Photos used: https://www.pxfuel.com/
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  1. Sapsan136 Offline
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) April 2 2020 10: 55
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    Russia today does not need to sell gold, but US government bonds !!! Let the Yankees have a headache !! Russia is the second, after China, holder of the US government debt !!!
    1. Aleksandr2020 Offline
      Aleksandr2020 (Alexander Vk) April 2 2020 13: 04
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      You seem to have coronavirus nonsense. Or you are just a child.
      Russia has long reduced investment in US securities to a minimum.
      Stocks are valued in dollar terms, as it's the world currency ... for now.
      You at least take an interest in the structure of the NWF and gold reserves.
      1. Sapsan136 Offline
        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) April 2 2020 13: 52
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        Mr. good, do not create account clones to be rude to others. Firstly, it is prohibited by the rules of the site ... Secondly, before you say anything, monitor the information ... Russia really dropped a part of the US government debt, but that was a long time ago ... Recently, Russia bought a large number of US government bonds , and since today Russia needs money, it is precisely they that need to be sold, not gold ... Such is my opinion, the opinion of a person with two higher educations, born in the USSR !!!
        1. albor.ru Offline
          albor.ru (Alexander) April 2 2020 15: 04
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          So, according to the results of August 2018, Russia practically dropped out of the list of holders of the American public debt, taking the 54th line.

          According to the U.S. Treasury, in April 2018, Russia reduced its investment in U.S. Treasury bonds by almost half - by $ 47,5 billion to $ 48,7 billion.

          Lie, do not lie ...
          1. Sapsan136 Offline
            Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) April 2 2020 16: 17
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            Now is not the year 2018 ... but a long time ago 2020 ... and Russia bought US government bonds in 2019, so do not write the news that was missing mothballs ...
            1. Nick Offline
              Nick (Nikolai) April 3 2020 08: 18
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              Quote: Sapsan136
              Now is not the year 2018 ... but a long time ago 2020 ... and Russia bought US government bonds in 2019, so do not write the news that was missing mothballs ...

              According to the U.S. Treasury Department, in December 2019, Moscow reduced investment in U.S. government bonds by one and a half billion dollars - to 9,974 billion. As follows from the Treasury report, this is the lowest figure for 12 years.
              For four consecutive months (from August to November), the Bank of Russia gradually acquired US government securities. For example, in October - by 622 million dollars, bringing the total amount to 10,697 billion. Experts explained these minor purchases by market considerations that did not affect the overall strategy for disposing of dollar assets.
              1. Sapsan136 Offline
                Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) April 3 2020 09: 50
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                According to the US, they and Abrams have the strongest tank in the world, which does not correspond to reality ... See the data of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation ... As for me, half a billion $ is not a trifle, this is the annual budget of not the smallest settlement in the Russian Federation ... In addition, gold is gold, and dollars are unsecured paper ...
                1. Nick Offline
                  Nick (Nikolai) April 3 2020 14: 25
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                  Quote: Sapsan136
                  See the data of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation ... As for me, half a billion $ is not a trifle.

                  In the total volume of gold reserves of the Russian Federation, half a billion $ is a negligible amount, thousandths of a percent. But I honestly did not find such a figure. The data of the Ministry of Finance on its website for 2018, and this Central Bank show that US government bonds in March 2020. The structure of gold reserves does not exist at all. Only the IMF SDR for $ 6 lard.
        2. Rum rum Offline
          Rum rum (Rum rum) April 6 2020 16: 31
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          Quote: Sapsan136
          Recently, Russia has purchased a large number of US government bonds, and since today Russia needs money, it is precisely they that need to be sold, not gold

          I respect your opinion. hi But write the numbers. That the opinion was more significant. Huh? wink
          And then, a large number, how much?
          1. Sapsan136 Offline
            Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) April 6 2020 19: 01
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            I do not want to delve into the Internet. In any case, no matter how much US debt securities the United States has left, they are not as reliable as gold, and first of all, you need to dump them.
            1. Rum rum Offline
              Rum rum (Rum rum) April 7 2020 18: 19
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              Ai - Ai. It is worth pulling the tongue slightly, and immediately something slurred.
              Bonds have less volatility, and therefore a little more convenient. In addition, they can always be given on bail (not to give your own gold). Have you thought about this?
              The state economy / politics is a bit more complicated than your family budget and relations with the neighbors on the landing.
              Have a nice evening.
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      1. Arkharov Offline
        Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) April 2 2020 13: 42
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        "Number" - they are always held in high esteem.
  3. Sergejluf Offline
    Sergejluf (Sergei) April 2 2020 10: 58
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    Question to Marzhetsky: is the printing press only in Russia? Other countries do not have it, including the Fed?
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    2. Rum rum Offline
      Rum rum (Rum rum) April 6 2020 16: 36
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      Pan Marzhecki does not answer such questions.
      I think this is outside his competence (or competency?)
  4. 123 Offline
    123 (123) April 2 2020 11: 10
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    Some Russian economists even believe that the country’s gold and currency reserves will be enough for the current negative dynamics for only a few months, and they will end by the summer of 2020.

    Some "experts" believe that the earth is flat and stands on three pillars. what But for some reason articles are not written about this. request
    I would like to know the names of these economists and how their conclusions are justified. The country should know its "heroes", and the calculations of the "economists" are also curious to look at. yes

    Most likely, instead of 6-10 years, it is worth counting on a period of 1-1,5 years, for which there will be enough accumulated reserves.

    And for some reason it seems to me that there will be enough reserves for 300 years with a completely absent economy. what Nonsense, of course, like 1-1,5 years, laughing but the justification is the same. smile Probably. winked
    Author Respect. good The level of analytics is constant, and stability is a sign of mastery. hi
    1. Nick Offline
      Nick (Nikolai) April 3 2020 07: 54
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      Quote: 123
      Respect to the author. The level of analytics is constant, and stability is a sign of mastery.

      Keeping analytics at zero level is easy. Yours faithfully... hi
      1. 123 Offline
        123 (123) April 3 2020 09: 41
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        That is exactly what I had in mind. yes We already talked a bit with the author, I think he understood everything correctly. hi
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  7. Lieutenant Rzhevsky I April 2 2020 11: 55
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    Some Russian economists do consider

    Announce the list of some Russian economists, please.
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  9. mor7d Offline
    mor7d (mor7d) April 2 2020 12: 10
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    Nothing, there is still something to sell. In addition to gold, the Russian Federation is also selling precious stones.

    The Government of the Russian Federation may be entitled in 2020 to increase the amount of sales of precious metals and precious stones from the State Fund in comparison with the budgeted budget without amending the budget law. Such norms are contained in amendments approved for adoption in the second reading by the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes. Amendments are made to the bill on the right of the government to allocate budgetary allocations for the fight against coronavirus without amending the budget.
    1. Nick Offline
      Nick (Nikolai) April 3 2020 08: 24
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      Quote: mor7d
      Nothing, there is still something to sell. In addition to gold, the Russian Federation is also selling precious stones.

      Russia is one of the few countries that extracts both gold and precious stones, and therefore sells surpluses in foreign markets at commercial prices to the same Britain, which lost its deposits. Do you offer to smear gold and stones on bread, or what?
      1. mor7d Offline
        mor7d (mor7d) April 3 2020 12: 29
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        offer gold and stones for bread smear or something

        Reread what I wrote. There is only a statement of facts. No suggestions of spreading anywhere on anything. Learn to understand what you read.
        1. Nick Offline
          Nick (Nikolai) April 3 2020 14: 30
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          Quote: mor7d
          ... offer gold and stones for bread to smear or something

          Reread what I wrote. There is only a statement of facts. No suggestions of spreading anywhere on anything. Learn to understand what you read.

          The meaning of the statement? Just for the sake of stating? Shine with erudition?
          1. mor7d Offline
            mor7d (mor7d) April 3 2020 15: 12
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            The meaning of the statement? Just

            The meaning of the statement in the statement.
            1. Nick Offline
              Nick (Nikolai) April 3 2020 17: 37
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              Quote: mor7d
              The meaning of the statement? Just

              The meaning of the statement in the statement

              You are mistaken! They state something for a subsequent interpretation or a hint of circumstances. A statement for the sake of a statement is meaningless. It's like mooing to mooing.
          2. mor7d Offline
            mor7d (mor7d) April 3 2020 17: 39
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            Shine with erudition?

            Yes, somehow, I'm not at work here.
            By the way, what's the point in your “statements”?
  10. gorenina91 Online
    gorenina91 (Irina) April 2 2020 12: 57
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    Gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia may end faster than they expect

    - Personally, I have more and much more today ...- it doesn’t even bother me ...- In the end, over the past 30 years, Russia has never been able to competently and rationally dispose of its gold reserves ... - complete ignorance in this matter ...
    - And I personally care about what Russia can start today (if it has not already started) ...- start buying Chinese assets, Chinese bonds, Chinese securities for its Russian gold; those. - all that junk that is not confirmed by gold, but rests only on a paper wrapper-yuan ... - With our guarantor, Russia can simply secretly (behind the US) conclude such a "tiny separate peace" ... - start supporting China with its Russian gold (behind which; in addition to the fact that gold itself is gold ... - there are also Russian forests, mines, oil and gas mines and deposits, etc.) ...
    - Russia has gotten into a great place ...- with all this one-sided “long-term cooperation” with China; with their gas pipes; gas and oil supplies to China; numerous enslaving agreements with China, etc ...
    - And so, when even this “moment of truth” was opened for a moment and China was threatened to collapse on its side and with it ... - this will cause enormous and irreparable harm to Russia itself ...- then our government does not know what to do except save China ...
    - Well, everyone has long heard ... that the Russian economy sits on the "gas and oil needle", etc ...
    - Yes, sitting ... - So what ???
    - There are entire states in the world, which are in the Middle. East in the West. Europe (the same Norway - also sits tightly on the same needle) ... - This is not so scary and terrible .., or rather, there are much more terrible and terrible things ... - in particular ... - for Russia. .. is to sit on a leash in China ...
    - Here Russia is sitting on a leash near China ... - And it will easily chase its gold to China .. to save it ...
  11. Alexander Semenov (Alexander Semenov) April 2 2020 14: 14
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    If we go back 10 years, we will find out that the reserve fund of the Russian Federation lasted only 10 years and merged with the NWF due to its full spending by the Ministry of Finance when plugging holes in the budget. Now it’s the turn of this line in the budget of the Russian Federation. The movement of its expenditure and issues of investing funds is closed from unnecessary eyes.
    1. albor.ru Offline
      albor.ru (Alexander) April 3 2020 06: 38
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      Do you know why the data is closed? - Because your eyes are closed ... Everyone else knows that before the crisis of 2008, Russia's gold and currency reserves were over 600 billion, then fell to 300, if I am not mistaken, the reserves amounted to more than 500 billion at the time the epidemic began.
      Open your eyes ...
  12. albor.ru Offline
    albor.ru (Alexander) April 2 2020 14: 32
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    Serezha, every dollar in excess of the estimated price brought Russia 1 billion. 40 - mortgaged, 50 - received - 10 billion margin, at 65 per dollar.
    Now the ruble has fallen by 30 percent, while oil collapsed by the same 30% ... Russia almost completely compensates for the falling price of oil on the domestic market by devaluation of the ruble.
    And who only bothered you to write this nonsense ...? There will not be full coverage - import will rise in price, but there will not be a catastrophe either!
    Wait ... The margin from the grain trade has not yet been calculated ... If oil is not needed during the crisis, then you always want to eat.
    Who are these "independent analysts" that you were too shy to list their names ??? Are you fake news? Or are their names too narrowly known to be called !?
  13. Monster_Fat Offline
    Monster_Fat (What's the difference) April 2 2020 14: 45
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    I think that the maximum is enough for half a year.
    Well, probably, everyone has heard from the bottom of their ears about the incident with "lost gold" at Sheremetyevo Airport?
    Well, the message that it was supposedly exported 1 ton of gold, while 2 bullion of gold from the batch that the service personnel found was lost? If you have not heard, then here, read:

    https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2020/03/26/posle-obrashcheniya-putina-iz-rossii-v-london-uletela-tonna-zolota?utm_source=smi2

    But I was interested in something else. Here is a snapshot of the lost, gold bars (I hope the snapshot is real):


    Judging by the official commentary on the situation, it was legal gold transported to London under a legal transaction.
    Now look at the picture. Can't you see anything strange? According to the law (rules) of circulation of gold and other precious metals on the territory of the Russian Federation, all gold mined must undergo MANDATORY state registration and tax must be paid from it, in accordance with applicable law (if gold is intended for commercial circulation) or it must go directly to the State Guard for storage with appropriate registration. According to the rules of the "turnover of gold", all gold must be in bars of a certain shape and size and most importantly! To ensure its verification, accounting and turnover, each ingot must have marking! In particular, among the information required for marking-branding should be: 1-information about who got it, 2-stamp-stigma of the representative of the State Assay Office on the conformity of a particular sample, 3-sample, 4-lot number according to the manufacturer's register, 5 - lot number according to the state register, 6-weight, 7-dr. (hallmarks of additional checks, storage registry numbers, etc.) And what do we see in these pictures? But nothing! Unlabeled bars, not branded! That is, gold is "impersonal." And how to explain it? wink
    1. albor.ru Offline
      albor.ru (Alexander) April 2 2020 14: 52
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      Because there is no stigma, that it is not gold, but a cartoons for the gullible.
    2. gorenina91 Online
      gorenina91 (Irina) April 2 2020 15: 09
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      Judging by the official comments, the situation - it was legal gold transported to London under a legal transaction.

      - Maybe it's bars of chocolate wrapped in foil ...- tasty, but ... not for long ... - Joke ...
      - Unfortunately, Russian gold is like chocolate ... - it quickly melts and is eaten ...
      - Well, if on the topic ... - then since Russian gold can so easily get to London; then the Chinese can simply drag him to China (and they won’t lose a single ingot) ...- again, a joke ...
      - So, it turns out that I’m right in my forecasts ... - In China, they love "Russian chocolate" more than in Russia itself ... - Hence the legs grow ...
      1. gorenina91 Online
        gorenina91 (Irina) April 2 2020 15: 42
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        - No, well, and the audience ... - Russian mice can eat mice ... - And they don’t care ... - they just need to put down the cons ...
        1. albor.ru Offline
          albor.ru (Alexander) April 2 2020 16: 21
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          And what, do you care so much about cons? Envious people also put them to me ... In addition, I watched your comments partially, appreciated the originality of punctuation and made disappointing conclusions about your mind. But this does not bother you ??? It's true?
          1. 123 Offline
            123 (123) April 2 2020 17: 04
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            In vain you got involved in it. winked Soon you will receive an answer, they will announce that they are included in the “ignore” group and will begin to call them an earthworm. yes Welcome to the club. laughing
            1. albor.ru Offline
              albor.ru (Alexander) April 2 2020 17: 12
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              A self-sufficient person who spends time before resting in the country and the beginning of the fishing season, who was already gently stroking Yamaha’s motor and electric motor, prepared fishing rods and spinning rods, bought mandulas and wobblers, bought a hook for fun, changed the filter and oil in Grant and Suzuki Vitara, patted both boats "for the grain" like horses.
              Is it possible to excite such trifles !? Outside the window is spring, the mood is beautiful, there are a quarter less cars on the street! WHAT can spoil my mood !?
              1. 123 Offline
                123 (123) April 2 2020 17: 36
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                WHAT can spoil my mood !?

                Quarantine extension.
                I, in fact, have two questions, what is manduli and whip, is it for Vitara?
                1. albor.ru Offline
                  albor.ru (Alexander) April 2 2020 17: 54
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                  Nagayka - a short scourge woven from rawhide, if with a weight of a pig, it’s a wolf-wolf - you can kill a wolf - an indispensable attribute of a Cossack to disperse demonstrations, flanking is similar to flanking with a saber or saber. Need for fun! Just a LIFE needed descendant of the Cossack!
                  Anticipating the question, I answer that the saber with the concave part hangs on the belt up, and the checker on the contrary.
                  Mandula - bottom flexible tackle of 2-3-4 segments, pivotally connected for catching pike perch and pike, having a load in the form of a cheburashka.
                  And I beg Do not ask what a cheburashka is ....
                  1. 123 Offline
                    123 (123) April 2 2020 18: 13
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                    What is a whip, I know, only for Vitara it is not suitable.
                    I didn’t understand the description of Mandula, I found a picture, but I didn’t figure out how it works. Judging by the design, it’s made for wiring, but the tackle is “bottom”, if it’s for a throw, then why is the load behind?
                    1. albor.ru Offline
                      albor.ru (Alexander) April 2 2020 18: 20
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                      Not at the back, but at the front of the fishing line and cargo, and not for a throw, but a spinning rod, but it jumps along the bottom during posting.
                      Nagayka - to disperse the liberals. And she comes to Vitara! - you leave Vitara ... I patted my boot with a boot ... Cool!
                      1. 123 Offline
                        123 (123) April 2 2020 18: 23
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                        Got it, I got a picture with a sinker in the back.
                        There are no liberals on the water. They live in an urban environment.
                      2. albor.ru Offline
                        albor.ru (Alexander) April 2 2020 18: 25
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                        So a whip with city registration ...
  14. General Black Offline
    General Black (Gennady) April 2 2020 16: 10
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    You don’t have enough subtyers in the States, and you consider all other people's gold. Yes, most likely, this is not gold. Just dropped deza.
    1. gorenina91 Online
      gorenina91 (Irina) April 2 2020 17: 08
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      - About the "wipes" ...- are you writing me something? - Do you specifically address ...
      -Then it will be all ... as it should ...- Caesar - Caesarean; and for Monsieur Generale - a sub-floor ...
      1. General Black Offline
        General Black (Gennady) April 2 2020 17: 54
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        And you, that, in the States you live, mademoiselle a paratrooper? That you accept everything at your own expense. Throw yourself with a parachute and be healthy.
        1. gorenina91 Online
          gorenina91 (Irina) April 2 2020 18: 52
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          - Personally, I live in Zap. Siberia ...- I answer your question ... - Surely you know the "binding" to the area .. and to the state ...- what is attached to Zap. Siberia ...- to Russia ... - And I have nowhere to throw ...
          - We all have nowhere to throw from the coronavirus ... except for the moon ...
          - Just address more clearly ...
          - And you do not get sick ...
  • Smirnoff Offline
    Smirnoff (Victor) April 6 2020 14: 22
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    Gold and foreign currency reserves of Russia may end faster ???

    Russia's gold and currency reserves will not have time to end, when a new batch of GOLD will replenish Russian reserves, and by this time they will liquidate the American coronavirus democratic infection in Russia.
    Some gosdepovskie grant-eaters are distributing knowingly false information from the United States !!!
    There is enough gold in Russia.
    The viral epidemic in Russia will end much earlier than all the gold reserves have time to use it.
    Gold mining companies operate in a three-shift mode.
    Explored new LARGEST gold reserves.
    For unexplored reserves, Russia confidently takes first place in the world.
    You can be sure that Russia will stand and defeat the virus, and with it the temporary financial costs. I GUARANTEE!
    Do not believe the US State Department and Sorov grantoed.
    Citizen health is a priority for President Putin and our government.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin and our state are doing everything possible and necessary for the coronavirus epidemic to pass as quickly as possible.
    In general, the amount of funds allocated by our government to combat coronavirus is unprecedented - almost one and a half trillion rubles.

    Russia will be able to defeat the virus.
    Until mid-May there is a high probability of putting out the spread of the viral disease in Russia and reaching the initial level of recovery of all economic indicators.
    We must all tolerate and comply with all the requirements adopted by our government together with the doctors.
    Be sure that the situation is completely under the control of the Government, and the growth of diseases is caused by the insidiousness of the coronavirus so far, but soon the spread will decline.
    Compliance with the regime of self-isolation by Russians will accelerate the victory over the virus.
    Together we can defeat him. Together we win. I guarantee !!!

    Russia is at the forefront of the fight against the American coronavirus and is successfully fighting it.
    All countries will be equal to Russia and learn from the experience of fighting it !!!

    The days spent at home are clearly good for the Russians.
    According to the Minister of Health of the Russian Federation Mikhail Murashko, the first week of self-isolation already gives its encouraging results.
    The measures introduced in the country really influenced the admission of patients and mitigated the severity of their condition.
    Therefore, there is hope that the incidence curve today follows a rather favorable scenario.

    Therefore, during this period it is VERY important to observe the self-isolation regime so as not to expose oneself to the danger of infection.