There will be no winners in the oil war

62

There will be no winners in the new oil confrontation, writes Rachel Zimba, a senior fellow at the Center for New American Security, and her opinion is quoted by the British portal Middle East Eye.

Although, the text notes, states such as Turkey, South Africa, China and South Korea will indeed benefit from cheaper oil, the scale of the global economic difficulties will override all possible benefits for them.



As for the oil-producing powers, the most vulnerable countries, according to the author, include Iraq, Algeria, Angola, Nigeria, Ecuador, Libya and Gabon. Although many of these countries have low production costs, it is highly desirable for their national budgets that the price of oil exceeds $ 100 per barrel. These countries also lack significant foreign exchange reserves.

In a much better position are the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, which have such reserves. But even there, far from everything is safe. According to the author, the weak links here are Oman and Bahrain, which have the largest debts. Saudi Arabia's debt and budget deficit are skyrocketing.

The Russian Federation, according to Ms Zimba, also demonstrates stability. Protecting the economy from sanctions has helped reduce dependence on foreign capital as well. Russia may not be prosperous, but it is holding on and will probably continue to do so despite the impending quarantine. The state can cut a number of costs, but various mega-projects are likely to remain in the government's plans.

The expert predicts that the United States will ultimately return Saudi Arabia and Russia to the negotiating table. This will most likely happen in the second quarter of this year.
  • https://pixabay.com/
Our news channels

Subscribe and stay up to date with the latest news and the most important events of the day.

62 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. 123
    +2
    April 1 2020 10: 33
    The expert predicts that the United States will ultimately return Saudi Arabia and Russia to the negotiating table. This will most likely happen in the second quarter of this year.

    If only they set the table and join the conversation themselves. winked
    There will really be no winners in this war, they will defend their interests and have already been brazen insolent boors.
    1. -1
      April 1 2020 11: 01
      So far, America and Saudi Arabia agree on something. Russia was not invited. Nothing yet

      If only they set the table themselves
      1. 123
        +4
        April 1 2020 11: 06
        So far, America and Saudi Arabia agree on something. Russia was not invited.

        That is the whole point. Yes Until now, they have pretended that negotiating is not a royal matter. They, celestials, they say. free market, and negotiation is the lot of mortals. This does not concern them. Once they negotiate with the Bedouins, then arrogance drops.

        So far, no If only the table is laid and yourself

        It’s too early to cover, everything will cool down. Let them first agree among themselves, then together they will lay the table faster. winked
        1. -2
          April 1 2020 11: 14
          they pretended to negotiate is not a royal matter

          they say, a free market, and to negotiate is the lot of mortals

          I'm afraid that you confuse sweets with cold.
      2. +1
        April 1 2020 12: 17
        Here is another proof of your misperception.

        So far, America and Saudi Arabia agree on something. Russia was not invited. Nothing yet.

        I regard this expression as completely incorrect. Mnuchin tried to negotiate with Russia in early March. And just two days ago, Trump is already directly with Putin. Or did Trump call Putin to inquire about his health?
        Your statement is in no way consistent with the real picture. And how do you discuss after that?
        1. -1
          April 1 2020 12: 37
          Quote: Bakht
          Here is another proof of your misperception

          So far, America and Saudi Arabia agree on something. Russia was not invited. Nothing yet

          I regard this expression as completely incorrect. Mnuchin tried to negotiate with Russia in early March. And just two days ago, Trump is already directly with Putin. Or did Trump call Putin to inquire about his health?
          Your statement is in no way consistent with the real picture. And how do you discuss after that?

          It’s just that you don’t even need to try to discuss with him, just to lay out your facts, opinions, analytics - in your performance it’s just analytics, good and with him "everything is always bad" - in short, then so, so there will be no discussion - in my opinion.
          1. +2
            April 1 2020 12: 40
            I am far from an analyst. I just have a lot of free time now. Oil prices fell :-), my stock is in a deep ... crevice. The work was slowed down, so I have to read it.
            1. 0
              April 1 2020 12: 56
              It’s not the first day that I’ve been trying to look at your posts at least, you are putting a lot of interesting things, thanks!
        2. +2
          April 1 2020 12: 44
          The Kremlin said in a telephone conversation on Sunday the presidents of Russia and the United States agreed on a meeting of energy ministers of both countries to discuss the situation on the world oil market. The White House representative used a more general wording - according to him, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin agreed that it is important to stabilize the global energy market, but did not mention ministerial contacts.

          And this is called "RF was not invited"?
          1. 0
            April 1 2020 14: 30
            Quote: Bakht
            And this is called "RF was not invited"?

            Reservation leaders are also invited to celebrate Independence Day.
            Negotiations should be beneficial to us, and not to the Americans, who before that were outside the scope of regulation.
            1. +1
              April 1 2020 15: 15
              What is the benefit of negotiations for the Russian Federation? Preservation of the market and reasonable price of 45-50 dollars. Price States are also satisfied. Remain markets.
              If you remember, the Russian Federation did not agree to extend the OPEC + deal, due to the fact that the market in Europe is being captured by shale producers. The task was to seat the States at the negotiating table. If America's shale producers dump a couple of million barrels, then the task is complete. So your sarcasm about the "leaders of the reservation" is inappropriate.
              I am not a prophet, but if an agreement between the Russian Federation and the United States is reached, then it is still possible to argue who exactly will be the "leader of the reservation." This is definitely not RF. Most likely KSA.
              1. 0
                April 1 2020 20: 56
                You did not pay much attention to the last phrase of the article that the USA WILL SEAT at the negotiating table of the SA and the Russian Federation. The author of the article does not think of any US participation in the negotiations. Only arbitration in their interests. The leaders of the obedient SA and the Russian Federation at the holiday of the American economy, under the guise of the wise zits chairman of the United States.
                1. +1
                  April 1 2020 21: 49
                  Anything can be written in an article. I express my opinion. States will have to reduce production as well as other countries. Why didn’t the Russian Federation extend the reduction agreement? Because the States continued to increase production. Now everything will go according to the Russian scenario. States will reduce production by a couple of million barrels (although there are nuances here too). Russia will also reduce by 500 thousand, as planned. And they will force KSA. They will return to their 9 million. Nigeria, Iraq and other Norway will take under a peak. I have already said that no one will ask them.
                  Trump, of course, writes himself this as a plus (he is the main one). Russia will remain silent, like a sphinx (its achieved well). KSA will declare that they won (the Russian Federation will go to reduction). So everything is in the winners. If this happens, it turns out that the Russian Federation acted correctly. And negotiations must go quickly. ASAP I think in the 2nd quarter. Although there is information about the month of June.
    2. -1
      April 1 2020 11: 03
      there will be defended their interests and the already brazen impudent boors

      Not bad, but who do you think will be the "defended interests" and who gets into the "brazen boors"? Who are you betting on?
      1. 123
        +2
        April 1 2020 11: 21
        The "defenders" will retain their market share or even increase it. What actually happens. Do you need to explain the rest? I hope you subtract one from three? I bet on Russia, I put on the other two hi
        1. 0
          April 1 2020 11: 33
          The winner is either one who has the technology to withstand any dumping by competitors, or who has a supply of resources, or allies. The RF does not have any of this at all. And therefore there is nothing to trump.
          1. 0
            April 1 2020 14: 33
            The RF does not have any of this at all. And therefore there is nothing to trump.

            Gee gee gee. Of the three CA-USA-RF, Russia is the most self-sufficient country.
            Or do you think that the 3 million Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in one day come from the great economic power of the United States?
            1. 0
              April 2 2020 00: 06
              Russia is the most self-sufficient country

              In the sense? Will you live in bast shoes and skins? Everything else is imported.

              for unemployment benefits

              One day after the epidemic get a job. You. apparently did not understand, who pays the unemployed? And if you didn’t quit, then who will pay? This is a simple release of the burden from the employer. And you are probably pleased to think

              about the great economic power of the USA
              laughing
              1. -1
                April 2 2020 11: 07
                Quote: mor7d
                One day after the epidemic get a job.

                If you slipped and rolled down the stairs, this does not mean that you stand up and cheerfully run up to it again.
                Dismissed ceased to be buyers and serviceable credit payers. And this ruins the very foundation of the debt pyramid that the United States stands on.
                As for bast shoes, take a look around - in Russia 90% - this is done on the spot. Brick, asphalt, metal, shoes, clothes, food, gasoline. Only the cheapest consumer goods in clothing markets are from China.
                1. 0
                  April 2 2020 11: 23
                  If you slipped and rolled down the stairs, this does not mean that you stand up and cheerfully run up to it again

                  This is not the first and not the last crisis. The Americans are recovering quite quickly, don’t worry about them that way, everything will be fine.

                  it ruins the very foundation of the debt pyramid that the US stands on

                  This is not the first and not the last crisis, and the very foundation of America is quite powerful.

                  As for the bast shoes

                  If you take a closer look, you will realize that none of the above has been done in the Russian Federation, only local raw materials, clay for bricks, gasoline and asphalt from oil. Everything is done either on imported equipment, or using any imported components. For example, toothpaste or soap contains an imported component, without which production is impossible. But this is normal, in the world now everything is done this way, everyone is doing something of their own and selling to others. No need to isolate yourself, this will lead to degradation.
                  1. +1
                    April 2 2020 13: 55
                    Quote: mor7d
                    This is not the first and not the last crisis.

                    Of course. Even in my life - the devil knows how many there were. Since the oil embargo of 1972. A year from 7 cents per gallon, gasoline went up to the dollar (in the US). We also survived cornization, perestroika, and democratization. In crises, the standard of living falls slightly, but in most cases it is not fatal. Both in Russia and in the USA. So leave the experience for the souls of the Indians (albeit in the shoes of Russian liberals).

                    No need to isolate yourself

                    No, the Indians must be either submissive or dead.
                    Therefore, we pretend to be Indians does not make much sense. Eat like the Iroquois.
                    1. 0
                      April 2 2020 14: 16
                      leave for the souls of the Indians

                      What does this have to do with it? Are you able to concentrate, not skip a topic, or do you have such a method of obfuscating, blabbering the meaning of the discussion?
                      1. +1
                        April 2 2020 14: 22
                        You do not understand allegories and sarcasm? Then I explain:
                        The recalcitrant Indians were exterminated. See the Indian Wars wiki.
                        The submissive signed a peace agreement with the US government, and resettled in the desert.
                        Russian liberals call for submission, and taking into account the interests of the United States. Now it is "not to isolate", to cut production and save the US economy. The logic of the "peaceful" Indian. Just always remember where these "Indians" end up.
                      2. -2
                        April 3 2020 13: 07
                        Rebellious Indians exterminated

                        So in those years it was accepted. When the Russians captured Siberia, didn’t they exterminate the local peoples? They also exterminated how.

                        Russian liberals call for humility

                        This is beyond reason.
    3. 0
      April 1 2020 12: 04
      A resource trader will never dictate his conditions in the modern world, the one who makes the final product and sells it dictates .... as has been said here a lot, the era of natural resources ended 10 years ago, everything just comes to us late.
      1. 123
        0
        April 1 2020 12: 19
        A resource trader will never dictate his terms in the modern world, he dictates. who makes the final product and sells it .... as has been said here a lot, the era of natural resources ended 10 years ago, everything just comes to us late

        Nonsense, of course, is utter, but if you look at the problem from this angle, it turns out that there are citizens to whom it comes even slower. The Saudis believe that they can dictate terms, and the US is stubbornly trying to become a resource trader. It turns out that our affairs are not so bad, we think faster. After all, Russia is not trying to dictate terms, it offers to negotiate.
        1. +1
          April 1 2020 12: 24
          And you do not forget who allowed the Saudis to live and who raised them from their knees, so to speak, this is the gas station of the Americans and the British.
          1. 123
            +1
            April 1 2020 13: 02
            And you do not forget who allowed the Saudis to live and who raised them from their knees, so to speak, this is the gas station of the Americans and the British

            This is already their "family" business, let them decide who "daddy" is, proceeding from this and we will negotiate.
            In the market, an overabundance of oil is a fact. You can either negotiate or destroy competitors. The US tried to take the second path. As soon as they finally realize that they have reached an impasse, they will return to point No. 1.
      2. +2
        April 1 2020 12: 22
        It's right. But in part. The final product has a great added value and therefore the manufacturer is always in the black. But the problem is that the final manufacturer is located in China. The United States has a service industry. It also has a lot of added value, but with the slightest breeze it is blown off first.
        As for the era of resources. When I was praised for 3D printers, no one could answer the question: from what material do these printers print the final product? From the air, or some real resources.
        The "post-industrial world" is in dire need of resources. And these resources must either be pumped from the colonies. or take away from competitors. Without resources, there is no "end producer". But the fact that the owner of the resources must produce the goods himself is, of course, true.
        1. +1
          April 1 2020 14: 07
          Has anyone heard of the Minister of Geology of the USSR Yevgeny Kozlovsky? His open letter to the President of the Russian Federation D.A. Medvedev. This is an interesting document.

          I am naturally opposed to the prevailing opinion in the upper layers of the state that our fault is that Russia has a “raw material economy”. I think that this is a great advantage, a gift from above! But the ability to use this economy of easily earned (primarily oil) money for a breakthrough and technological improvement of the state is the task of the country's leadership. On this "donkey" is tested his ability to public administration and the level of professionalism! Is this not the main root of our troubles for twenty years ?!

          The former USSR Minister of Geology publicly refused the award from Medvedev.

          https://www.mk.ru/politics/2011/04/17/581738-gramotnyiy-protest-prezidentu.html
      3. -1
        April 1 2020 14: 40
        Quote: Alexander Semyonov
        A resource trader will never dictate terms in the modern world

        Only in subsistence farming. What can China, the manufacturer, dictate to the United States, the buyer, giving the final product not even for dollars - for debt obligations?
        In the world of overproduction of consumer goods, having your own resources is a guarantee of independence. Unless, of course, you are a liberal Papuan who believes in the holy dollar.
        1. 0
          April 1 2020 14: 45
          Having rich resources (RF) with incompetent managers and a lack of technology is simply a blessing for the West ....
          1. 0
            April 1 2020 15: 01
            You might think that in the West, managers are all geniuses of logistics.
            In the US, 0 (zero) toilet paper production. Blackbury released the last phone in the US last year. The front landing gear from F-35 is forged in Sverdlovsk ...
            And what is going on with medicine there is simply masterly planning for many years.
            1. +1
              April 1 2020 15: 06
              Do not tell .... however, this is your opinion and vision.
    4. +1
      April 1 2020 12: 46
      It remains only by this time to find out who these boors are? This time will just show.
  2. -1
    April 1 2020 10: 59
    There will be no winners in the oil war

    But then there will be a loser. Or losers.
    1. 123
      +3
      April 1 2020 11: 11
      But then there will be a loser. Or losers.

      They already exist, but some have not yet understood it. Smaller producers have already lost, and some larger ones pretend that they are taking scraps of the "gas station" economy into even smaller pieces.
      1. -1
        April 1 2020 11: 13
        They are already there, just some of them still do not understand

        Well said.
        1. 123
          +1
          April 1 2020 11: 46
          Well said.

          We are tryinghi
      2. +1
        April 1 2020 12: 36
        Quote: 123
        They already exist, just some have not yet understood this.

        Yes Yes Yes. Anyone can understand who lost by observing the ruble and prices.
        1. 123
          +2
          April 1 2020 13: 09
          Yes Yes Yes. Anyone can understand who lost by observing the ruble and prices.

          And what about the prices? As for the course, judging by it the state of the economy, it turns out that things are going much better in Ukraine.

          https://www.banki.ru/products/currency/uah/

          Don't want to move to financial paradise?
          1. +1
            April 1 2020 23: 36
            Quote: 123
            And what about the prices?

            They are growing. It’s just that some people haven’t yet.

            Quote: 123
            Don't want to move to financial paradise?

            You have already asked. No I do not want to. If it's so good there, drive yourself.
            1. 123
              -1
              April 2 2020 00: 07
              They are growing. It’s just that some people haven’t yet.

              I have not noticed a price increase yet. You can not moan, but calmly in numbers, what and how much has risen in price?

              You have already asked. No I do not want to. If it's so good there, drive yourself.

              You think that the main thing is the exchange rate. Everything is in order there.
              1. -2
                April 3 2020 00: 31
                Quote: 123
                I have not noticed a price increase yet. You can not moan, but calmly in numbers, what and how much has risen in price?

                First moaning. Last week they called from dentistry and said that in connection with the fall of the ruble, a seal will cost 500 rubles more, like, all materials are imported.
                If in numbers.

                https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4301584

                But they promise even more fun

                https://www.gazeta.ru/business/2020/03/10/12997969.shtml

                I’m saying that it’s not yet understood by everyone.

                Quote: 123
                You think that the main thing is the exchange rate. Everything is in order there.

                Why do you always give out your thoughts for mine? Where did I say that the main thing is the exchange rate? If everything is so good in Ukraine, go, who is holding you.
                1. +1
                  April 3 2020 00: 39
                  MOSCOW, May 14 - RIA Novosti, Natalya Dembinskaya. The US Treasury is ready to expand the list of countries - currency manipulators, adding Russia there. As noted by Bloomberg agency, all the persons involved in the list will face "certain market consequences." Why is the ruble undervalued and what threats arise in connection with the accusations of the American financial department - in the material of RIA Novosti.
                2. +1
                  April 3 2020 00: 53
                  Foreign exchange games: US accused Russia of deliberately weakening ruble

                  https://ria.ru/20190514/1553458619.html
        2. 0
          April 1 2020 14: 46
          Just air traders and are played by exchange rates. Soros made billions on this. Or do you think that Soros’s collapse of the British pound by 50% is because the British live in a useless country?
          Moreover, this collapse, offensive to the ordinary hamster, who hawks the Spanish Parmesan, turned out to be manna from heaven for metallurgists and power engineers of foggy Albion.
          1. 0
            April 1 2020 23: 38
            Are you blaming Comrade Sechin?
            1. +1
              April 2 2020 10: 54
              Does Comrade Sechin spin trillions of rubles in the financial market?
              They are driven by American funds. They buy rubles, the ruble exchange rate is growing, at a certain point they begin to merge, when the costs have paid off, the balances are dumped, the ruble is falling, funds are stocked in rubles. And they are waiting for a new increase. This can be done up to 10-15% per year, 2 times more than for Russian bonds. And European and American bonds cannot be compared at all.
              1. -1
                April 3 2020 00: 35
                To earn 10-15% per year, the rate fluctuation should be 15-20% minimum. Until March 2020, this was not observed. In my opinion, it is rather strange to deny the connection of the current fall of the ruble with the fall in oil prices.
                1. 0
                  April 3 2020 00: 45
                  Oleg Rambover, tree leaves sway in the wind. There is a connection, but not the movement of the leaves causes the wind!
                  1. -2
                    April 3 2020 09: 25
                    Oh yes you are a poet. Do you want to say the fall of the ruble caused a drop in oil?
  3. 0
    April 1 2020 13: 03
    Let's just analyze the situation. There are contradictions between the Russian Federation and the USA. What lies on the surface is Ukraine, Syria, Venezuela, sanctions, SP-2 and oil prices. Added coronavirus.
    1. Ukraine. By and large, it is already worked out material and is of no interest to Trump. And for the USA too. There the questions are supervised by the IMF. This is a serious issue for Russia. But no one will give back. This is a fixed position and will remain so for a long time. Russia will not give up Crimea unambiguously. This is not even discussed.
    2. Russia will not surrender Syria. Too much is connected there. This is politics, and economics, and prestige. So also a dead end. It will be decided by the Syrian army with the support of the VKS. There are no common ground either.
    3. Venezuela. I already wrote. It is vital for the USA and the Russian Federation. Who controls Venezuela will win. The situation is balancing. Russia has made a bid for Maduro, but supporting it will be quite difficult. But in Venezuela, 50 billion (maybe more) of China's investments. So for the States this is also a big problem. I don’t dare to bet, 50 to 50.
    4. Sanctions. Trump or any other president is not able to cancel them. Congress will not support. So, this issue will need to be addressed pointwise. As entered pointwise, and will be removed pointwise. Russia voiced its point of view. If the sanctions are lifted from Rosneft, we can talk about something.
    5. SP-2. Negotiations Pompeo Lavrov. Also, the position of the United States is weak. European countries are interested in the gas pipeline and European money has been invested enough there.
    6. Oil prices. This is the moment where the positions of the parties are close. Both countries set oil prices at $ 45-50. Chances are high that they can agree. Affected will be Saudi Arabia. But nobody cares. So I think that there will be an agreement between the US-RF and KSA (if they understand that their minuscule did not pass).
    7. Coronavirus is a common problem and there are also common interests here. It is necessary to restart the global economy. But with a significantly lower level of consumption. The post-industrial world has shown its fragility.
    1. -1
      April 1 2020 13: 22
      Of everything that you wrote, I see only traps for the Russian Federation, not a single one for amers .... unless a virus, and then, rather, grace.
      1. 0
        April 1 2020 14: 01
        This is not about traps. On the likelihood of some kind of agreement. Did I write about winning positions? So I don't see what the "trap" is exactly.
        On the contrary, I see problems for the States. In 2016, I wrote that either war or America’s default could be the way out. For the United States, both options were winning. Hilary is war, Trump is default. While I see the movement to default America. But I repeat once again, default is not a failure. Trump survived several defaults and became a billionaire. He is an expert in this matter.
      2. 123
        -2
        April 2 2020 00: 10
        Of everything that you wrote, I see only traps for the Russian Federation, not a single one for amers .... unless a virus, and then, rather, grace.

        You should go to the ophthalmologist and check your eyesight. Or when you look in that direction, at least brush off the "dew of God" from rose-colored glasses.
        1. +1
          April 2 2020 00: 55
          Pink glasses and God's dew ... it’s your part .... live in an illusory world. I have eyes and ears that don't let me down, so I'm fine!
          1. 123
            0
            April 2 2020 07: 38
            Pink glasses and God's dew ... it’s your part .... live in an illusory world.

            True? But you think that for the United States nothing

            a virus, and then, rather, grace.

            belay It is necessary to get to this, the epidemic is good. wassat Are you normal? fool The death of thousands of people grace?

            I have eyes and ears that don't let me down, so I'm fine!

            They only attach badly to the log. negative
            1. -3
              April 3 2020 00: 48
              They made fun of these kremlebots, they all know, well, well ... your number 13, sit and wait .... "God's preacher."
          2. +1
            April 3 2020 01: 14
            Quote: Alexander Semyonov
            I have eyes and ears that don't let me down, so I'm fine!

            Alexander Semyonov, forgot to say about the brain.
  4. -1
    April 1 2020 16: 22
    We are already losers, all, well, of course, except for Sechin and the authorities.
  5. 0
    April 3 2020 17: 36
    Quote: Oleg Rambover
    Do you want to say that the fall of the ruble caused a drop in oil?

    Do not guess.