How a pandemic can change the global oil market


Today, oil is balancing at $ 25 a barrel. A cheap barrel pulled to the bottom and gas prices, which in Europe in spot markets fluctuate around $ 100, plus or minus. For Russian economics all this is a disaster delayed for the time being until the reserves of the NWF are exhausted.


The question is, why not agree again with the Arabs, returning quotes to an acceptable level for everyone? It sounds logical, but, unfortunately, everything is a little more complicated than it seems at first glance.

It is all about global and extremely negative trends in the global economy. Last year, an average of 100,3 million barrels of oil was consumed per day. For the same period, Russia mined about 11,25 million tons of raw materials daily, if we take the arithmetic average. In other words, the share of our country from the international “oil pie” accounted for about 11,2%.

The figure is very significant, but everything begins to change rapidly for the worse. Oil is the blood of the global economy, well, gas, too. According to some estimates, industry, primarily the petrochemical industry, as well as construction, accounts for more than a quarter of the consumption of “black gold”. Gluttony is followed by personal automobile transport - 27%. Another 9% is air transportation and aviation in general. Road transport - 17%, sea - 5%.

Now let's see how the coronavirus “infected” the global economy. Before the epidemic, China showed growth of 5-7% per year. Due to quarantine, its economic growth has fallen almost to zero, and this is the main “world workshop". Now losses are reported by European authorities, where quarantine hit 99% of business entities. The EU directly speaks of the possible nationalization of the largest companies to save them from ruin. Production volumes are falling, and the consumption of goods and services is declining.

But that is not all. Universal quarantine is forced to change the habits and established lifestyle of the population of different countries. So, the tourist season of 2020 was frankly “covered”, which led to a sharp reduction in the volume of international and domestic flights. Having looked at the “plagued liners” standing in quarantined ports, tourists no longer think to buy sea cruises in order not to fall into the trap.

The closure of borders hit the mobility of the “earned money” of all stripes and guest workers, which will inevitably lead to higher prices for goods and services. People try to travel as little as possible in public transport, where there is a high risk of contracting a coronavirus. The authorities impose distance learning, more and more remote work. The huge masses of the population began to move less, it is not clear when all this will end and the situation will normalize.

According to some estimates, this can lead to a reduction in oil consumption by 18%, that is, almost a fifth will fall out. This means that manufacturers of the corresponding volumes of raw materials will have to leave the market, so that the rest can agree among themselves and stabilize prices. And leave in such a way as not to return to it. It is clear that the plans of Saudi Arabia and the USA do not include becoming outsiders, the allies will always be able to reach consensus.

In line for the departure of Russia, Iran and Venezuela, which will allow Washington to solve not only economic, but also long-term political tasks. So is it worth wondering about the fierceness of dumping in Riyadh?
12 comments
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  1. Ivan Ivanov_18 Offline Ivan Ivanov_18
    Ivan Ivanov_18 (Troll trolls) 27 March 2020 11: 23
    0
    Clear. Everything is lost. One thing is not clear why Russia will suffer, and the so-called “civilized” world is not.
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 27 March 2020 14: 16
      -2
      Clear. Everything is lost. One thing is not clear why Russia will suffer, and the so-called “civilized” world is not.

      In the author’s head, this scenario doesn’t fit, the brain begins to boil. yes
  2. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 27 March 2020 11: 36
    -2
    Judging by the article, in power is liquid diarrhea from the deed? Or is it just a alarmist and provocateur?
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 27 March 2020 14: 17
      0
      The second option is more likely.
  3. Mihail55 Offline Mihail55
    Mihail55 (Michael) 27 March 2020 11: 39
    +3
    I agree, not everything is lost. And the fool understands that sitting on an oil needle is not very convenient for us. ALREADY YESTERN NECESSARY TO PLEASE !!! Works above the roof in the country ... roads, gasification, restoration of the ditched industry ... is it time for the boyars to roll up their long sleeves ???
  4. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 27 March 2020 12: 40
    -1
    Something seems like a special confusion to the author.

    an average of 100,3 million barrels of oil. Russia ..... about 11,25 million tons of raw materials.

    Barel is 1/8 tons, that is, 11,2% of the author clearly does not work out ....
  5. 69 Offline 69
    69 27 March 2020 13: 02
    +1
    Among those present here or your friends there is at least one sick with this unknown infection? Everything is very similar to the global scam where SARS disappeared, which intimidated the world's population in the 90s? The fact is that if something really serious happened, the authorities and the media will no longer be believed, even if they really want to.
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 27 March 2020 14: 21
      +4
      Among those present here or your acquaintances, is there at least one sick with this unknown infection?

      Those, fortunately, are not available, but I do not recommend taking a frivolous attitude to the epidemic. Do you think Italians are joking like that?
  6. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 27 March 2020 14: 15
    -1
    It is clear that the plans of Saudi Arabia and the USA do not include becoming outsiders, the allies will always be able to reach consensus.

    In line for the departure of Russia, Iran and Venezuela, which will allow Washington to solve not only economic, but also long-term political problems.

    Do you think Russia’s plans include becoming an outsider? You are a funny person. laughing Maybe you want it to be so, but the reality is different. So far it looks like this:

    China bought a record amount of oil from Russia - 1,6 million tons

    https://inosmi.ru/news/20200326/247132943.html

    These are the very ones who "began to refuse to purchase Russian oil." winked
    And let the Saudis with the Americans still sell to each other, the profit is small, but the turnover. fellow
  7. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 28 March 2020 06: 36
    -3
    Quote: 123
    Do you think Russia’s plans include becoming an outsider? You are a funny person.

    Honestly, I disdain to engage in discussions with you. Who is ridiculous is better seen by others.
  8. Alexander Semenov (Alexander Semenov) 28 March 2020 11: 36
    -1
    Most likely, OPEC will be reformatted and there will be something else ... there will be a battle for oil sales ... outsiders, if dumped or sold in excess of volumes, will be subject to sanctions and a complete restriction on technology and transactions.
  9. Aleksandr2020 Offline Aleksandr2020
    Aleksandr2020 (Alexander Vk) April 2 2020 13: 39
    +1
    What kind of game is this?
    The first in the line for departure is the American slate! He is already dead, in the near future we will see a wave of bankruptcies.
    Before it, the United States produced 3 million barrels a day, now it has increased to 12 million barrels a day, and most of the US oil will first fly off the market.
    Riyadh is in a panic, the Saudis are in agony, 80% of their GDP is oil! For a break-even budget, they need a price of at least 80 bucks. At such prices, they will have to transfer to camels.
    In Russia, the share of oil in GDP is only 11%.