Will the “oil war” grow into World War III?


The United States, which recently announced its intention to intervene in the confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Russia that unfolded on world energy markets, seems to have decided that the time has come for such a move. At the same time, Washington immediately makes it clear on which side in this battle he intends to speak. They are going to "sort out the hard way" with our country, as if with some kind of third-rate colony of their own.


On the one hand, the motivation of the American authorities is easy to understand - their own crumbling pieces are pushing them to risky actions economy, the collapse of shale oil production and the growing wave of the coronavirus epidemic overwhelming the country. On the other hand, the White House must be aware that in the current crisis conditions, such escapades can end in the most deplorable way.

To whom - the carrot, and to whom the whip


The American media published information that in Washington "work has begun on new sanctions against Moscow - for destabilizing the international oil market." This is with reference to "informed sources in the highest echelons of power" reports such an authoritative publication as The Wall Street Journal. Does this sound like the truth? More than! It was not without reason that Donald Trump spread on the topic of the fact that he intended “in due time” to directly “connect” to the resolution of the contradictions between Moscow and Riyadh in matters of volumes of “black gold” production. Apparently, the head of the White House decided that the time had come. That's just to "connect" to the resolution of the crisis of overproduction of energy, he intends, as usual, in more than a peculiar way. Apparently, the Americans are going to agree with the Saudis “in a good way”, through diplomats from the State Department and with the participation of specialists from the National Security Council. Trump is prompted by these actions, in particular, by the position of his own Republican Party, demanding an end to the "oil lawlessness", "gently affecting" Riyadh, which so far remains one of the main US allies and partners in the Middle East. A group of 13 US senators belonging to it even came down to addressing the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, with a letter in which he did not demand, but asked to abandon the current sharp increase in oil production: “We urge the kingdom to play a constructive leadership role in stabilizing the global economy and reduce anxiety in the oil and gas sector ... "

It is clear that diplomatic approaches of this kind, with references to the need to “rally in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic and join efforts to overcome its consequences,” will be accompanied by arguments of a completely different nature - like hints of the possibility of depriving the US of military assistance and the like . Nevertheless, apparently, they are not going to comply with Russia even the most formal rules of courtesy. They intend to dictate to her, moreover, the conditions for complete and unconditional surrender in the ongoing conflict. On the exact scale, the specific objects of the sanctions and the timing of their introduction there is no talk yet, but it is not difficult to guess how all this may look. In fact, Moscow will be faced with a choice: to leave all markets available to it for today “in a good way” or to get out “in a bad way”. Contrary to earlier statements made by Donald Trump that in the current conflict situation it is necessary to “find a middle ground”, the United States is clearly not going to agree on anything and agree on anything. Extremely reduce production and exports will certainly be prescribed to our oil industry. The dispute over the markets is going to be solved at the expense of Russia, redistributing its shares in them between the United States and Saudi Arabia. We will not agree to these humiliating and devastating demands - well, Russian oil will be declared "illegal" in the same way as previously Iranian or Venezuelan. And do not be seduced by the illusions that in this situation we will have allies - a recent decision by China, which has flatly refused to cooperate with Rosneft structures that have already come under US sanctions, is the best proof of this.

What Trump is silent about


The American president, who spoke quite extensively about the ongoing "oil war", I remember, lamented the "destructive impact" that it has on the economy of our country, according to his statement, "almost completely dependent on oil." Something there was also about the Saudis, but not so derogatory and categorical. To a certain extent, Trump, of course, is right - because of the extremely low prices for “black gold”, the Russian budget really has a hard time today. However, at the same time, he, as always, forgot to mention the enormous problems of the United States itself. After all, it is precisely the representatives of the shale companies that have grown in recent years in the United States cleaner than filthy mushrooms after a small rain (and to no small extent thanks to the efforts of just Trump), today they are begging him to save them from complete and final death. You can argue for a long time about who will last longer at an oil price below $ 20 per barrel - Russians or Saudis. The question is complex and debatable ... However, the fact that the American "shale" is already in the deepest debt hole, half a step from a wave of mass bankruptcies and a complete halt in production - this is not in doubt. Too many sources in the United States themselves indicate this directly, naming specific companies and the wild amounts of their debts. The fact that shale oil production is low-marginal and at current prices completely unprofitable is an axiom. However, this is also only the tip of the iceberg! The recession of the American economy has already begun, it is expected to decrease by 12% in the second quarter, a double increase in unemployment (a million Americans will be on the street every month) and an annual decline in GDP of 0.8% instead of growth. This is not “Kremlin propaganda”, it is an official statement of Bank of America. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley banks announced the onset of a global crisis that will affect the whole world, but will hit the United States almost the hardest ...

Now about Saudi Arabia. Today, it is thoughtlessly and blindly repeating its own mistakes five years ago, when it tried to destroy the production of shale oil in the United States with exactly the same “fall game”, and in the end, it almost came to a complete ruin. These statements, again, are not distributed from some “mouthpiece of the Kremlin”, but are made by Simon Watkins, an independent American expert who once headed the oil business at the Platts agency. This analyst recalls that the “price war” launched in 2014-2016 cost Riyadh $ 450 billion (according to the International Energy Agency) and other major financial troubles. Saudi Arabia itself, accustomed to prospering with a purely surplus budget, by 2015 received a “hole” in it of almost 100 billion and simply “burned” 250 billion of its own reserves, trying to stabilize the situation. This Arab country approached the current confrontation with a budget deficit, which, according to the most optimistic forecasts, was supposed to cover the year of commercials by 2028 - but only at prices not lower than 84 dollars per oil barrel. About the upcoming bankruptcy of Riyadh “for three to four years”, discussions in the highest echelons of the local politicians were going back in 2016. With the then, again, regarding the "sane" value of "black gold". What they are counting on now, filling the world with almost gratuitous oil, is decidedly incomprehensible. Watkins, for example, believes that the country's leadership is engulfed in “collective amnesia,” which prevents him from reasoning and weighing the consequences of his own adventures.

All of the above is evidence of only one thesis: both the United States and its various Arab allies are now literally on the edge of the abyss. And this means that they may well decide to save the situation literally at any cost. The only problem is that Russia today has nowhere to retreat. From the word "completely." Our shameful withdrawal from energy markets will mean not only a geopolitical defeat unprecedented since 1991, but, alas, the collapse of the economy, and in the foreseeable and near future. If the budget of the country for some time, even with considerable losses, even at the limit, but withstands low oil prices, it will withstand a complete or almost complete cessation of energy exports. Well, in the USA, in fact, this is exactly what they are striving for. To, so to speak, solve all problems with one blow. They are not inclined to give up their claims to the role of the center of the universe and the "navel of the Earth" in the least. Let the pandemic, let the crisis, even the Apocalypse! All the while, Washington has continued with the stubbornness of a furious machine to stamp new sanctions, restrictions, duties ... against Iran and all those who cooperate with it. Against European aircraft manufacturers, “offending” the poor Boeing Co., which, incidentally, is also on the verge of bankruptcy. Surely, something new will soon be invented against China, which the US obviously does not plan to end the confrontation with. The United States intends to continue to wage war with the rest of the world, and, apparently, it is sacredly believed that they will win it. No matter what the cost ...

Worsened in 2014 and becoming more fierce with each new round, the confrontation between the United States and Russia, sooner or later, almost inevitably should have come to a direct clash, which could not be avoided. The "turner" will lose, and that's all. The COVID-19 pandemic, from which our country, as of the present moment, has every chance to come up with a much better outcome than the Americans, simply accelerated the events. It is entirely possible that Washington will simply decide to “strike ahead”, try to finally break Russia, while, as it seems to him, he can still do it. I really do not want to think that in addition to a coronavirus attack comparable in scale and damage to the world war, we are faced with an even more frightening prospect. However, it is very likely that the moment is coming when Russia will have to defend its interests with literally all available forces and means, right up to the Third World War. Or perish ...
Photos used: https://www.whitehouse.gov/
Ctrl Enter

Noticed oshЫbku Highlight text and press. Ctrl + Enter

11 comments
Information

Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.
I have an account? Sign in

  1. Bakht Online
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 20 March 2020 09: 42
    0
    • 5
    • 5
    Almost everything is true, except for the thesis of the Third World War. This is an economic war. Russia has very weak positions in this area. But she’ll definitely not become a “whipping boy”.
    There are reciprocal moves and they are painful enough for the collective West. And if the States can survive the sanctions from the Russian Federation, then Europe certainly will not survive them. The main problem of Russia (which has already been mentioned many times) is the lack of political will and misunderstanding of the simple fact that there are no "partners" in the West.
  2. Regis Offline
    Regis (Sergey Kopan) 20 March 2020 09: 49
    +2
    • 2
    • 0
    Will the “oil war”, the economic crisis, the coronavirus epidemic, the Syrian crisis (who is bigger?) Grow into World War III?
  3. Sergey Latyshev Offline
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 20 March 2020 09: 57
    0
    • 2
    • 2
    Haha
    Experts.
    The war at large corporations never stopped. They sue without end, sanctions, takeovers ...
    Now she was called one "genius" "hybrid" .....
    And here is such a gift. Virus, Sechin, Saudis ....
  4. Arkharov Offline
    Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 20 March 2020 10: 06
    -5
    • 1
    • 6
    Articles are funnier and funnier. For a long time I’ve only looked them “obliquely” so as not to waste time. And what does the United States have to do with it? Who started all this?
  5. Bakht Online
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 20 March 2020 10: 10
    -1
    • 1
    • 2
    Opportunities - at least just right for the four to carry,
    But every stocky and ankle
    ------
    We have lots of money! - what do we spend thousands of those
    On the education of fools and fools.


    https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2020/03/19/2226947/yemeni-ansarallah-forces-launch-missile-strikes-against-saudi-oil-facilities
  6. Arkharov Offline
    Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 20 March 2020 12: 11
    -1
    • 2
    • 3
    Riyadh and Moscow seem to lose in the oil war. The USA and China will win. Due to cheap fuel, the incomes of the US population will grow by 6%, Europe, China and India - by 2%. Most likely, the Russians will have to pay for the “geopolitical maneuver”. A frank mistake in negotiations with the Arabs, an inadequate assessment of the situation unexpectedly drove the country into an extremely difficult situation. In a much more difficult situation than just the consequences of a pandemic.
  7. Oleg Rambover Offline
    Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 20 March 2020 12: 55
    -1
    • 2
    • 3
    Why is the US economy on the verge of collapse, but the ruble is falling? And in general, does the author present the consequences of the collapse of the US economy for the whole world? And especially for the Russian economy? Are dreamers about the collapse of the dollar ready for the consequences specifically for them?
    And yes, there will be no winners in the third world, so it makes no sense.
  8. Arkharov Offline
    Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 20 March 2020 13: 10
    -2
    • 2
    • 4
    An author who wants to take his own eye out so that his neighbor is completely eyeless: it’s easy to freeze the development of shale oil, but cheap US oil, like Trump said, the US, like other countries, is beneficial. And not only to manufacturers, but also to ordinary citizens who buy gasoline 2 times cheaper.
  9. Bulanov Offline
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 20 March 2020 13: 39
    -3
    • 1
    • 4
    Moscow will be faced with a choice: to leave all markets available to it for today “in a good way” or to get out “in a bad way”.

    - But the fact that? Will Russian tankers start drowning? Our Foreign Ministry may propose to divide the oil trade on an equal footing - 30% each for the United States, Saudis and the Russian Federation. 10% to the rest. Let them agree, until they change their minds in the Russian Federation.
  10. gorenina91 Online
    gorenina91 (Irina) 21 March 2020 10: 23
    -1
    • 2
    • 3
    - And how Russia constantly entered the World Wars ...- constantly the same ...:
    - "I was not ready," "rearmament was not completed," "mobilization was not completed," "plants and factories were not modernized," etc. etc...
    - And today, Russia is not ready not only for all these "listed parameters"; but I’m still not ready for the fact that in Russia there is no leadership and leader who can pursue a decisive radical policy ... - But who cares ... - Even such an unprepared (as always) Russia needs the enemies even more to defeat us ... - It sounds pathetically .., but nonetheless ....................
    - But other states have everything for wars ... - and "economy" and "leaders" ...
  11. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 21 March 2020 18: 45
    0
    • 0
    • 0
    The interests of the market and the interests of the state are completely different things.