"The situation is catastrophic": oil companies comment on prices for "black gold"


Recently, Russian billionaire Leonid Fedun (a fortune of $ 8,7 billion), vice president of PJSC LUKOIL, a major shareholder and former chairman of the board of directors of this company, predictedthat Russia's losses due to the severance of the OPEC + transaction due to the 2019-nCov coronavirus infection (COVID-19) will amount to $ 100-150 million per day. And so, when the price of oil on the world market fell below $ 25 per barrel, Fedun called the situation catastrophic.


In an interview with the agency RBC Fedun recalled about meetingpreviously conducted by Russian President Vladimir Putin right at the terminal of the Vnukovo airport before flying to Pskov. It was dedicated to the coronavirus, but it was attended by the leaders of Russian oil companies.

Yes, now the coronavirus has hit the economy. But the oil shock that occurred (OPEC + deal break), it gives a price approximately, according to our estimates, from $ 20 to $ 25 from the existing price

- says Fedun.

In his opinion, if the OPEC + deal were preserved, then a barrel of oil would now be worth around $ 50. At the same time, Fedun emphasized that at the mentioned meeting at the airport, "no idea of ​​withdrawing from the transaction was discussed."

Although I know that certain state-owned companies actively lobbied for her (idea). Even those who lobbied, could not imagine in a nightmare that they would sell oil at $ 25

- said Fedun.

Fedun is convinced that Russia and Saudi Arabia will be in the worst position due to the severance of the OPEC + agreement. After all, these countries have announced their intention to increase oil production when its price in the market falls.

And then the question of their economic opportunities, reserves and so on, that is, it will be a war of attrition, from which the United States will benefit

- sure Fedun.

Fedun noted that the United States consumes a huge amount of oil and there is a direct dependence of fuel prices on the cost of raw materials. According to experts of PJSC LUKOIL, due to low oil prices, the incomes of the US population will grow by 6%. Moreover, in Russia, due to the peculiarities of the tax system, even with a drop in oil prices by half, the cost of fuel will not decrease.

The population of (Russia) does not suffer from price increases, but receives nothing from its fall. And the ruble exchange rate, unfortunately, will fall; there are no clear reasons for it not to fall further. Therefore, most likely, real incomes (of Russians) will fall

- warned Fedun.

In addition, Fedun affected shale mining in the United States. According to him, what is happening "will not kill, but severely injure" this industry in the USA, dropping it 6-7 years ago. As for Russia, if Moscow and the OPEC countries again do not agree and oil prices on the world market do not rise above $ 35 per barrel, then from 2022-2023, production in Russia will begin to decline.

It should be added that on March 18, 2020, Russian Urals oil for delivery to North-West Europe fell to $ 18,64 per barrel.
Photos used: Acodered / wikimedia.org
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  1. Oleg Rambover Offline
    Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 19 March 2020 16: 06
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    It seems that 20 years of the fight against oil dependence have not been successful.
    1. Nick Offline
      Nick (Nikolai) 21 March 2020 14: 24
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      Quote: Oleg Rambover
      It seems that 20 years of the fight against oil dependence have not been successful.

      Crowned. If in 2014 the share of oil and gas revenues in the GDP of the Russian Federation amounted to more than 50%, then the 2020 state budget was laid out at the rate of 40% of oil and gas revenues. In fact, there will be no more than 30-35% due to lower energy prices.
      1. Oleg Rambover Offline
        Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 21 March 2020 21: 35
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        Quote: Nick
        Crowned.

        You have strange ideas about success. The USSR had no more than 10% of budget revenues, while they said that he was sitting on an oil and gas needle and one of the reasons for the collapse was a fall in oil prices.

        Quote: Nick
        In fact, there will be no more than 30-35% due to lower energy prices.

        This means that the budget will not receive 5-10%. In fact, even more, the multiplicative effect so that it affects the entire economy.
        Or was it sarcasm?
        1. Nick Offline
          Nick (Nikolai) 29 March 2020 17: 21
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          Quote: Oleg Rambover
          You have strange ideas about success. The USSR had no more than 10% of budget revenues, while they said that he was sitting on an oil and gas needle and one of the reasons for the collapse was a fall in oil prices.

          The share of oil and gas in the budget of the USSR reached a peak of 20%, but the share of income from alcoholic beverages in the budget of the USSR reached 50% in other years, which is not good.
          For comparison: in Russia, the share of revenues from oil and gas is twice as high as in the USSR, but the share of “drunk” money decreased to less than 4%.
          Draw your own conclusions, which of the budgets is best for the country, Soviet or Russian.
          In my opinion, replenishing the budget by soldering the population is worse than by oil and gas.

          Quote: Oleg Rambover
          This means that the budget will receive less than 5-10%. In fact, even more, the multiplicative effect so that it affects the entire economy.
          Or was it sarcasm?

          You are not up to date. The budget will receive everything in full from the NWF and the Stabilization Fund, where as much as 670 billion evergreens have accumulated. Given the cheaper ruble, we will have enough of these funds for ten years, but after a couple of years, IMHO, energy prices will return to normal values ​​and we will begin to replenish the capsules again.
          So there’s absolutely nothing to panic about.
          1. Oleg Rambover Offline
            Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 29 March 2020 21: 49
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            Quote: Nick
            The share of oil and gas in the budget of the USSR reached at its peak up to 20%, but the share of income from alcoholic beverages in the budget of the USSR reached other years to 50%, which is not good.

            At the peak reached 10% of oil revenues.

            https://finance.rambler.ru/economics/37357841-na-chem-sssr-zarabatyval-bolshe-vsego-nakanune-raspada/?updated

            You are probably an adult, and believe in all sorts of tales. The budget of the USSR was approximately 400 billion rubles, which means 200 came from vodka. The price of the bottle is 4 rubles. We get 50 billion bottles. We divide by 270 million people the country's population. We get 185 bottles per year per person (including women, the elderly and children). This is 90 liters per person per year. Each resident of the USSR had to swell in umatine every other day.

            Quote: Nick
            You are not up to date. The budget will receive everything in full from the NWF and the Stabilization Fund, where as much as 670 billion evergreens have accumulated. Given the cheaper ruble, we will have enough of these funds for ten years, but after a couple of years, IMHO, energy prices will return to normal values ​​and we will begin to replenish the capsules again.

            This song was sung both in 2008 and in 2014. Enough for 2 years. There is no stabilization fund, now the NWF is 123 billion dollars, where did you get 670?
            1. Nick Offline
              Nick (Nikolai) 30 March 2020 03: 27
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              Quote: Oleg Rambover
              At the peak reached 10% of oil revenues.

              See data for the most successful 1980.

              Quote: Oleg Rambover
              You are probably an adult, and believe in all sorts of tales. The budget of the USSR was approximately 400 billion rubles, which means 200 came from vodka. The price of the bottle is 4 rubles.

              According to the USSR Ministry of Finance, the 1981 budget was 320,64 billion rubles. A bottle of vodka then cost an average of about six rubles. Then it turns out 13,5 liters of alcohol per person. In Lithuania or Moldova now more plump. It should be noted that there were more expensive drinks, cognac, brandy, calvados. Siberian vodka, for example, cost 7 rubles. What part of the alcohol products was used for technical and medical needs.

              Quote: Oleg Rambover
              There is no stabilization fund, now the NWF is 123 billion dollars, where did you get 670?

              Yes, sorry, now this is the NWF. And 550 billion is the gold reserves of the Russian Federation.
              1. Oleg Rambover Offline
                Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 30 March 2020 12: 04
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                Quote: Nick
                See data for the most successful 1980.

                I looked. All 1980 USSR exports amounted to 50 billion rubles, which is less than 20%, of which slightly less than half is oil and gas. Approximately 25 billion, this is less than 10% of budget revenues.

                http://istmat.info/node/9321

                Quote: Nick
                A bottle of vodka then cost an average of about six rubles.

                Even if you take 10 rubles per bottle, even if you do not take into account the cost, in order to ensure half the budget, USSR citizens had to drink 40 liters a year, so much was not.

                Quote: Nick
                Yes, sorry, now this is the NWF. And 550 billion is the gold reserves of the Russian Federation

                If the Central Bank sells its reserves, the ruble will turn into toilet paper.
                1. Nick Offline
                  Nick (Nikolai) 30 March 2020 13: 44
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                  Quote: Oleg Rambover
                  I looked. All 1980 USSR exports amounted to 50 billion rubles, which is less than 20%, of which slightly less than half is oil and gas. Approximately 25 billion, this is less than 10% of budget revenues.

                  http://istmat.info/node/9321

                  Everything is clear with you. You do not see the difference between export earnings and income from the oil and gas industry.

                  Quote: Oleg Rambover
                  Even if you take 10 rubles per bottle, even if you do not take into account the cost, in order to ensure half the budget, USSR citizens had to drink 40 liters a year, so much was not.

                  If we consider a bottle of forty degrees at 10 rubles, then it comes out 20 liters of vodka per year, or 40 bottles per year. 55 grams of vodka per person per day. Easily.

                  Quote: Oleg Rambover
                  If the Central Bank sells its reserves, the ruble will turn into toilet paper.

                  You are not in the subject. Short. The Central Bank does not need to sell gold reserves. It is enough to create additional payment instruments in conjunction with it, which in turn stimulates GDP growth. Gold reserves of the Russian Federation at the rate of 77 rubles / dollar. approximately 51 trillion rubles. An increase in the money supply (gradually, so as not to accelerate prices) by 50 trillion rubles will give a 10 percent increase in GDP. Thus, pouring this money into the economy through infrastructure projects, social programs, maintaining the solvency of the population, Russia also provides economic growth. Something like this.
                  1. Oleg Rambover Offline
                    Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 30 March 2020 17: 36
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                    Quote: Nick
                    Everything is clear with you. You do not see the difference between export earnings and income from the oil and gas industry.

                    That is, do you compare the income from the entire oil and gas industry (export and domestic consumption) of the USSR with the income of the Russian Federation from export of the oil and gas industry? Ah well done, it's five points.

                    Quote: Nick
                    If we consider a bottle of forty degrees at 10 rubles, then it comes out 20 liters of vodka per year, or 40 bottles per year. 55 grams of vodka per person per day. Easily.

                    How do you think? How much is the budget 320? 50% is 160. We divide 160 billion by 10 rubles, we get 16 billion bottles. Divide 270 million inhabitants of the USSR we get 50 bottles, this is 25 liters per person (including infants) per year. This is 70 ml per day per person (including infants) with a WHO norm of 30 for men. And this is without taking into account the cost and overhead costs, and that the population rarely bought alcohol at 10 rubles. To provide 160 billion a year, a family of four had to spend 2370 rubles on alcohol, almost 200 rubles a month. This is crazy.

                    Quote: Nick
                    You are not in the subject. Short. The Central Bank does not need to sell gold reserves. It is enough to create additional payment instruments linked to it, which in turn stimulate GDP growth. Gold reserves of the Russian Federation at the rate of 77 rubles / dollar. approximately 51 trillion rubles. An increase in the money supply (gradually, so as not to accelerate prices) by 50 trillion rubles will give a 10 percent increase in GDP. Thus, pouring this money into the economy through infrastructure projects, social programs, maintaining the solvency of the population, Russia also provides economic growth. Something like this.

                    Oh well. Blessed is he who believes. Not so in the last days the USSR did?
                    1. Nick Offline
                      Nick (Nikolai) April 3 2020 08: 06
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                      Quote: Oleg Rambover
                      That is, do you compare the income from the entire oil and gas industry (export and domestic consumption) of the USSR with the income of the Russian Federation from export of the oil and gas industry? Ah well done, it's five points.

                      You have cereal in your head.

                      Quote: Oleg Rambover
                      How do you think? How much is the budget 320? 50% is 160. We divide 160 billion by 10 rubles, we get 16 billion bottles. Divide 270 million inhabitants of the USSR we get 50 bottles, this is 25 liters per person (including infants) per year.

                      The incomes of the USSR budget from the sale of alcohol in different years ranged from 30 to 50%. But even if you take the maximum as you started, then 25 liters of vodka in terms of pure alcohol is 10 liters per year. Take an interest in how much pure alcohol per year is drunk per person in Lithuania, in Moldova, in Germany, in France. In your opinion, so they already have super insanity.
                      1. Oleg Rambover Offline
                        Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) April 4 2020 09: 31
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                        Quote: Nick
                        You have cereal in your head.

                        Can you justify this with any links?

                        Quote: Nick
                        The incomes of the USSR budget from the sale of alcohol in different years ranged from 30 to 50%.

                        Once again, we divide 160 billion by 270 million, we get almost 600 rubles a year per person. This is 50 rubles per month for alcohol should be spent by every citizen of the USSR (including the elderly and infants). And this is without taking into account the cost and invoices. I don’t know about you, but my family didn’t spend 200 rubles a month on alcohol.
                        You can bring a source, where did you get this?
  2. Arkharov Offline
    Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 19 March 2020 16: 21
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    What did they hope for?
  3. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 19 March 2020 17: 39
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    It should be added that on March 18, 2020, Russian Urals oil for delivery to North-West Europe fell to $ 18,64 per barrel.

    - Yes, for Zap. Europe's "golden time" has come ... - Now it is the turn of Russian gas ...- what a "pleasant surprise" he will present to Zap. Europe and all the afflicted ...
    - Most likely, Russia will backtrack, although it will not be possible to win back its previous positions ...
    - Or drive the Kuril Islands of Japan ... at a reasonable price ... - Japan has lurked today and expects ...
    1. Vladimir_ Voronov (Vladimir) 19 March 2020 17: 52
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      For people like you, they include an article on the indivisibility of Russia in the new Constitution, so that even from their sofas they scratch their tongues less. Your comments have more whining and bile than suggestions. Get busy, put things in order in your apartment, maybe life will get better ...
  4. Deck Offline
    Deck (Pertti) 19 March 2020 18: 21
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    Quote: Vladimir_Voronov
    Your comments have more whining and bile than suggestions. Get busy, put things in order in your apartment, maybe life will get better ...

    A specific proposal: to remove from their posts the leaders who allowed (initiated) this disgrace and put them on trial. Conduct urgent re-election of all levels of government.
    Satisfied, Vladimir, such an offer?
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) 19 March 2020 21: 59
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      A specific proposal: to remove from the posts of leaders who allowed (initiated) this disgrace and put them on trial. Conduct urgent re-election of all levels of government.
      Satisfied, Vladimir, such an offer?

      Sorry for the curiosity. Have you also demanded to bring everyone to justice in the USSR? Or shy? winked Dependence on oil was even stronger, there were Canadian bread loaves of wheat, only truth-cutters were much smaller. yes
      1. Deck Offline
        Deck (Pertti) 23 March 2020 14: 25
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        He demanded, like millions of Soviet people, and the result was neither the Soviet Union nor the glorious Politburo. laughing
        1. 123 Offline
          123 (123) 23 March 2020 14: 29
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          He demanded, like millions of Soviet people, and here is the result - neither the Soviet Union nor the glorious Politburo

          If it’s no secret, where have you been hiding with these "millions"? Something I do not remember your secret society. request Conspiracy, apparently, was on top. winked
    2. Nick Offline
      Nick (Nikolai) 21 March 2020 14: 27
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      Quote: Deck
      A specific proposal: to remove from their posts the leaders who allowed (initiated) this disgrace and put them on trial.

      What the blah blah?
      Specifically suggest which manager, for what, and under what article.
      1. Deck Offline
        Deck (Pertti) 23 March 2020 14: 27
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        The investigation will identify the perpetrators, and the court will say its weighty word. Another question: whose court and investigation will be? laughing
      2. 123 Offline
        123 (123) 23 March 2020 14: 34
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        What the blah blah?
        Specifically suggest which manager, for what, and under what article.

        What terrible things you say. belay You will have to delve into this approach, but everything is clear who Fedun does not like - everyone is on the wall, the rest are in hard labor. laughing
        1. Deck Offline
          Deck (Pertti) 23 March 2020 14: 43
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          Who does not like Fedun, I do not care. I do not like those who arranged a dollar for 60 rubles first and for 80 now. I really hope that they will do the same with them as with Gaddafi.
          1. 123 Offline
            123 (123) 23 March 2020 14: 49
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            Who doesn’t like Fedun, I don’t care. I do not like those who arranged a dollar for 60 rubles first and for 80 now. I really hope that they will do the same with them as with Gadaffi

            Want to start with this unhappy young man?

            1. Deck Offline
              Deck (Pertti) 23 March 2020 14: 51
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              Was he in the year 14 making a dollar of 60 rubles? Scoundrel!
              1. 123 Offline
                123 (123) 23 March 2020 15: 27
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                I see you matched? laughing Sorry for the young man. smile
  5. fevralsk.morev.75 (Sergey Morev) 19 March 2020 20: 38
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    Website Tape ru dated March 17 -

    .... Putin is surprised by the increase in gas prices in Russia.

    What can I say? Fabulous nullifier. By the way. In honor of the 150th anniversary of the birth of the Great Lenin, we vote against changes to the Constitution. Break off ....
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) 19 March 2020 22: 05
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      Website Tape ru dated March 17

      .... Putin is surprised by the increase in gas prices in Russia.

      What can I say? Fabulous nullifier. By the way. In honor of the 150th anniversary of the birth of the Great Lenin, we vote against changes to the Constitution. Break off ....

      Arranged a meeting here, you know. sad We will figure out what to vote for. I do not like? Well then, as the great Shrek said - sad fabulous creatures, you are not officially welcome here no
      1. ss29 Offline
        ss29 19 March 2020 23: 46
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        Putintsy, do not anger the people.
      2. Nick Offline
        Nick (Nikolai) 21 March 2020 14: 28
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        Quote: 123
        Arranged a meeting here, you know. We will figure out what to vote for. I do not like? Well then, as the great Shrek said - fabulous creatures, you are not officially welcome here

        Better not say.
    2. ss29 Offline
      ss29 19 March 2020 23: 47
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      Well, I think they will rig it, as always, but two carnations should be put.
      1. 123 Offline
        123 (123) 20 March 2020 00: 33
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        Well, I think they will rig it, as always, but two carnations should be put.

        Give Zyuganov. sad
      2. fevralsk.morev.75 (Sergey Morev) 21 March 2020 21: 02
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        Remember those 147%. These for the sake of power are capable of anything. Only, no matter how much rope you twist ...
  6. 69 Offline
    69 19 March 2020 22: 11
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    Quote: Arkharov
    What did they hope for?

    There’s probably no one else on Khodorkovsky.
  7. 69 Offline
    69 19 March 2020 22: 13
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    Quote: fevralsk.morev.75
    vote against constitutional amendments

    And why didn’t he vote against it when the drunk Yeltsin, when she was shredded under the dictation of an undead hegemon?
  8. Sergey Latyshev Offline
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 20 March 2020 00: 16
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    But, according to the media, the Saudis and Amers bent down. And, most importantly, there will be nothing for such "experts", for the "Nefeyki".
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) 20 March 2020 00: 34
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      But, according to the media, the Saudis and Amers bent down.

      If not a secret, who writes such nonsense?
      1. Sergey Latyshev Offline
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 20 March 2020 08: 00
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        And here and in Zen a few days earlier ..... How to break the agreement. Not in those words, of course ...
    2. ss29 Offline
      ss29 April 13 2020 02: 11
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      Already crawled with a white flag)
      1. Sergey Latyshev Offline
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) April 13 2020 07: 50
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        US oilmen are ruined, henceforth only import: did Russia succeed?

        Experts: Saudi Arabia lost the Russian oil war.

        - a few days ago.
  9. Gadley Offline
    Gadley (Sergei) 20 March 2020 04: 50
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    One sob of another oil tycoon.
  10. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 20 March 2020 07: 10
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    Quote: 123
    Oil addiction was even stronger

    Come on?
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) 20 March 2020 13: 29
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      Come on?

      You recall how oil was worth 10 overseas thalers in the days of Reagan? It seems that they decided to replay the game, fantasy overseas is not held in high esteem, as long as they are sure that it works, they act according to one pattern.
      1. Oleg Rambover Offline
        Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 20 March 2020 15: 20
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        Come on? What share in the budget of revenues from oil and gas revenues was in the USSR and in the Russian Federation now?
        From memory, like, 10 and 50 percent, respectively.
        1. 123 Offline
          123 (123) 20 March 2020 16: 01
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          Come on? What share in the budget of revenues from oil and gas revenues was in the USSR and in the Russian Federation now?
          From memory, like, 10 and 50 percent, respectively.

          The share of oil and gas dollars in the budget is not the main thing, it could be formed from internal sources. More importantly, even wheat was bought for currency. The country could not feed itself stupidly. No oil - no bread. That is such independence. Even pipes for oil and gas pipelines were imported.
          1. Oleg Rambover Offline
            Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 20 March 2020 16: 36
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            Quote: 123
            The share of oil and gas dollars in the budget is not the main thing, it could be formed from internal sources.

            This refers to export earnings.

            Quote: 123
            The country could not feed itself stupidly. No oil - no bread.

            I don’t own the numbers, but I suspect that even now a large proportion of the products are imported. And almost the entire food industry uses imported equipment and it needs imported spare parts.

            Quote: 123
            Even pipes for oil and gas pipelines were imported.

            Pipes, it seems, have mastered (back in Soviet times), but various equipment for oil equipment is also imported and has no Russian counterparts. As in other industries, recall the Crimean turbines. Something I strongly doubt that the dependence of the Russian Federation is not that it is smaller than the USSR, but even at the same level.
            1. 123 Offline
              123 (123) 20 March 2020 17: 23
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              This refers to export earnings.

              Russia is less dependent on exports for a century.

              I don’t own the numbers, but I suspect that even now a large proportion of the products are imported. And almost the entire food industry uses imported equipment and it needs imported spare parts.

              From memory, products are about 12%, with equipment much worse, machinery and equipment about 44% of imports. I don’t remember exactly how many of them are in the food industry, but the proportion is decent. That's just there is no urgent need for new purchases right now, there is enough available on the whole, the required one can be made from us. There is nothing fantastic in it; with the depreciation of the ruble, producing by oneself becomes more profitable than purchasing abroad.

              Pipes, it seems, have mastered (back in Soviet times), but various equipment for oil equipment is also imported and has no Russian counterparts. As in other industries, recall the Crimean turbines.

              By reference, you can read a little about the production of large diameter pipes:

              https://iv-g.livejournal.com/583375.html

              Technologies and equipment for the oil industry are doing more and more themselves, dependence is constantly decreasing. And this happens in all sectors, import substitution, although slower than wanted, but works. It's about the same as with carbon fiber for MS-21, they refused to sell, they started to produce it themselves. Turbines, by the way, can also be made by themselves, with Siemens recently terminated the contract, they will not do the plant in Russia.

              Something I strongly doubt that the dependence of the Russian Federation is not that it is smaller than the USSR, but even at the same level.

              Life goes forward, the country develops, and you stopped in the past, what is being done in the country passes by you unnoticed. The statement that I do not know, but I suspect that everything is bad and I doubt everything, sounds pretty funny. hi
              1. Oleg Rambover Offline
                Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 20 March 2020 19: 13
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                Quote: 123
                Russia is less dependent on exports for a century.

                But still stronger than the USSR (is that a century?)

                Quote: 123
                Life goes forward, the country develops, and you stopped in the past, what is being done in the country passes by you unnoticed.

                You didn’t notice how the world became global. The USA in the 80s was much more independent than now. Where did I say that everything is bad? Are you funny? Look around you. Do you see many things made in Russia? You write on an imported smartphone or computer, probably drive an imported car, watch an imported TV, cook food on an imported stove and keep it in an imported refrigerator, put on imported clothes and swallow imported tablets, and at the same time talk about the degree of independence of the Russian Federation. In my childhood, from the imported one there was only the Yugoslav wall, chewing gum and Cuban canned pineapples. Import substitution means that you will buy exactly the same thing of worse quality, but more expensive. Have you been to modern manufacturing? On those that I was, Russian equipment is missing from the word at all. It probably is somewhere, but its share is small. Wherever they tried to introduce autocracy, it ended badly. Why should modern Russia be the exception?
                1. 123 Offline
                  123 (123) 20 March 2020 21: 43
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                  But still stronger than the USSR (is that a century?)

                  Aha yes He wrote almost without looking.

                  You didn’t notice how the world became global. The United States at 80 was much more independent than now. Where did I say that everything is bad? Are you funny? Look around you. Do you see many things made in Russia? You write on an imported smartphone or computer, probably drive an imported car, watch an imported TV, cook food on an imported stove and keep it in an imported refrigerator, put on imported clothes and swallow imported tablets, and at the same time talk about the degree of independence of the Russian Federation.

                  You will buy a washing machine or refrigerator, see where they are made, on many only import names. Which, however, applies to everything else, except that smartphones with computers are all from China.

                  In my childhood, from the imported one there was only the Yugoslav wall, chewing gum and Cuban canned pineapples.

                  We dragged gum from Bulgaria, but Cuban only had sugar.

                  Import substitution means that you will buy exactly the same thing of worse quality, but more expensive.

                  Not a fact.

                  Have you been to modern manufacturing? On those that I was, Russian equipment is missing from the word at all. It, for sure, is somewhere, but its share is small.

                  Not news, moreover, in agriculture there is a great dependence on the seed stock, breeding must be dealt with and pedigree farms developed.

                  Wherever they tried to introduce autocracy, it ended badly. Why should modern Russia be the exception?

                  And who is talking about authorship? Even North Korea has imports. I am talking about critical dependence on imports. This is when they blocked the sale of products and nibble the bark on the trees. Nothing of the kind threatens us. If you notice, all sanctions and restrictions on trade do not lead to anything. We do not have such a dependency.
                  Production must be developed at home, but certain conditions are necessary for this. China did not become a world factory because the party members at the next congress decided and did so. The transfer of production should be profitable. At a high exchange rate, transferring production to the country is unprofitable; at the request of the country's leadership, no one will do this. Stupidly, because in Vietnam or China, production is cheaper and it is established. And there are a lot of clever people who believe that if, for example, Italians produce equipment for the food industry, then we just want to want the head of enterprises to run around the barn like Lukashenko, and then we will do better, cheaper, the whole world will start it right away buy from us, and even the salary will automatically be, as in Europe.
                  1. Oleg Rambover Offline
                    Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 20 March 2020 23: 40
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                    Quote: 123
                    If you are going to buy a washing machine or a refrigerator, look where they are made, many have only imported names.

                    And you ask where the components of these washing machines and refrigerators come from. When the Turks shot down our plane, our customs began to carefully check Turkish goods, as a result - the BOSH plant stood in St. Petersburg.

                    Quote: 123
                    Not a fact.

                    Fact. Every Russian can be convinced of it, buying cheese.

                    Quote: 123
                    Not news, moreover, in agriculture there is a great dependence on the seed stock, breeding must be dealt with and pedigree farms developed.

                    This was not the case in the USSR. And say, the Russian Federation is independent in this regard.

                    Quote: 123
                    And who is talking about authorship? Even North Korea has imports.

                    Absolute authorship is not possible. By the way, North Korea is a good example of authorship. You say, the president says.

                    Quote: 123
                    I am talking about critical dependence on imports.

                    This is the authorship. autocracy is inextricably linked with sovereignty.
                    And it is interesting to me to know that the USSR imported such critical things, without which I could not live? Corn? And what, the share of food imports in the USSR was higher than in the Russian Federation?

                    Quote: 123
                    If you notice, all sanctions and restrictions on trade do not lead to anything.

                    I would not be so optimistic. Russia's GDP growth lags behind global. I read somewhere that from the year 20 production will begin to decline due to sanctions in the oil industry.

                    Quote: 123
                    The transfer of production should be profitable. With a high exchange rate, transferring production to the country is not profitable; at the request of the country's leadership, no one will.

                    Are you criticizing the leadership of the Russian Federation?
                    1. 123 Offline
                      123 (123) 22 March 2020 00: 22
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                      And you ask where the components of these washing machines and refrigerators come from. When the Turks shot down our plane, our customs began to carefully check Turkish goods, as a result - the BOSH plant stood in St. Petersburg.

                      Nobody has canceled international cooperation. Disruptions in supply are not critical. If some plant got up on time, the consequences are insignificant.

                      Fact. Every Russian can be convinced of it, buying cheese.

                      Try to change the store, cheese suits me.

                      This was not the case in the USSR. And say, the Russian Federation is independent in this regard.

                      Are you bringing yourself to full self-sufficiency again? No country in the world works like that. What is the point of repeating this? I say that they work to eliminate critical addiction. The cessation of any supplies and other prohibitions will be overcome.

                      Absolute authorship is not possible. By the way, North Korea is a good example of authorship. You say, the president says.

                      You either do not understand the meaning of what you read, or you distort. Please quote me?

                      This is the authorship. autocracy is inextricably linked with sovereignty.

                      Very strange statement. Can you justify?

                      And it is interesting to me to know that the USSR imported such critical things, without which I could not live? Corn? And what, the share of food imports in the USSR was higher than in the Russian Federation?

                      Do you think the lack of bread is not enough? You can live without parmesan with jamon, without bread the country will not last long. In 1985, grain was purchased at $ 45 billion.

                      I would not be so optimistic. Russia's GDP growth lags behind global. I read somewhere that from the year 20 production will begin to decline due to sanctions in the oil industry.

                      You will not believe it, and Germany is growing at a rate lower than the world. Do not read all sorts of rubbish. Moreover, sanctions are not valid for the first year, but production, it seems, will begin to decline ... Is this the whole result - sanction?

                      Are you criticizing the leadership of the Russian Federation?

                      And what, the country's leadership asks someone about this? Request and create conditions. Different things.
                      1. Oleg Rambover Offline
                        Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 22 March 2020 13: 20
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                        Quote: 123
                        Are you bringing yourself to full self-sufficiency again? No country in the world works like that. What is the point of repeating this? I say that they work to eliminate critical addiction. The cessation of any supplies and other prohibitions will be overcome.

                        What is critical addiction? 40% of beef last year - is it a critical addiction? Or 35% milk? Or 5/6 chrome ores? Or 2/3 of uranium ores? Or 70% of the components of the Dry Superjet? Or 90 percent of industrial equipment?

                        Quote: 123
                        You either do not understand the meaning of what you read, or you distort. Please quote me?

                        Quote: 123
                        I say that they work to eliminate critical addiction.

                        Once again, absolute authorship does not exist. Countries may gravitate toward authorship, "eliminating critical dependence" and there is a tendency toward authorship.

                        Quote: 123
                        Very strange statement. Can you justify?

                        Well, it's elementary. So for what you want to "eliminate critical dependence" on imports? So that external players could not influence the foreign and domestic policy of the Russian Federation? Right? But this is sovereignty.

                        Quote: 123
                        Do you think the lack of bread is not enough? You can live without parmesan with jamon, without bread the country will not last long. In 1985, grain was purchased at $ 45 billion.

                        Well, firstly, not lack, but lack. 85 was the most barren, in the remaining years, imports amounted to around 20%.
                        Secondly, trim the sturgeon. 45 billion is about 230 million tons of grain. The USSR in the worst year (1985) produced 65 million tons and purchased 27.

                        Quote: 123
                        You will not believe it, and Germany is growing at a rate lower than the world. Do not read all sorts of rubbish. Moreover, sanctions are not valid for the first year, but production, it seems, will begin to decline ... Is this the whole result - sanction?

                        But Russia has less than Germany or the United States.

                        Quote: 123
                        And what, the country's leadership asks someone about this? Asking and creating conditions are two different things.

                        Understood nothing. Who asks, who creates the conditions?
                      2. 123 Offline
                        123 (123) 22 March 2020 15: 39
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                        What is critical addiction? 40% of beef last year - is it a critical addiction?

                        No, not critical, there are many suppliers, if supplies cease, this is unpleasant, but tragedy will not happen. There is chicken, pork, lamb, venison and so on. We will survive for some time. In the USSR, in general, the meat direction of cattle as such was absent, only breeds of the milk direction were bred, meat was far from always, but you think that everything was wonderful.

                        Or 35% milk?

                        Providing milk is 84%, try adding another 35%. Do not find that does not converge?

                        https://www.rbc.ru/business/09/07/2019/5d2329ce9a79477c8af30c1d

                        This year, tens of thousands of cows were bought, 90% will soon catch up to the food security doctrine.

                        Or 5/6 chrome ores?

                        They became less since the days of the USSR? Look for the sake of interest what rare earth metals are and how many there are in the world except China. All countries, without exception, do not provide themselves with everything necessary. No one considers this critical and does not completely switch to self-sufficiency. But for some reason, the idea that everything has disappeared from us and that we are bent because we do not have everything of ours has gotten into your bright head.

                        Or 2/3 of uranium ores?

                        There is enough uranium, both for military purposes and for nuclear energy, the new reactors operate on other fuels obtained after the reprocessing of used ones. These are almost unlimited stocks.

                        Or 70% of the components of the Dry Superjet?

                        Are problems with the Superjet critical for you? How disastrous is this for you? They work, make their components, everything will be fine. Remember when they did it and think about where then it was possible to get all the components. Only a nerd can believe that you can immediately completely make your plane from scratch. Not a single civilian aircraft is made without imported components.

                        Or 90 percent of industrial equipment?

                        With what trash such data? From there, where is it written about milk?

                        Well, it's elementary. So for what you want to "eliminate critical dependence" on imports? So that external players could not influence the foreign and domestic policy of the Russian Federation? Right? But this is sovereignty.

                        Do you live in your own fantasy world? No one can completely eliminate external influence. In one way or another, everything depends on others. We are not alone on the planet. There is a suitable definition:

                        Sovereignty is the ability of the national elite to make the decisions that it wants, without unacceptable damage to itself and its country.

                        Well, firstly, not lack, but lack. 85 was the most barren, in the remaining years, imports amounted to around 20%.

                        And in 1983, what happened? Did a meteorite fall or diarrhea happen? And in the 1984th?

                        https://p-d-m.livejournal.com/43146.html

                        In addition to wheat, they also bought corn, part of the purchased grain went to livestock feed, this is also meat dependence. They could not feed not only themselves, but also cattle.

                        http://elar.urfu.ru/bitstream/10995/4992/2/dais-14-10-2009.pdf

                        But Russia has less than Germany or the USA.

                        USA Why did you drag here? Just looking for someone else more and comparing with them to confirm your opinion? Compare with Libya, there is more growth. If the US has a growing economy, this does not mean that the reason for the sanction. And in general, do you think that the goal of the sanctions was to lower the growth of the economy? As far as I remember, the requirements were put forward completely different.
                        As for Germany

                        In total for 2019, Germany's GDP grew by 0,6 percent dw.com/ru
                      3. Oleg Rambover Offline
                        Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 24 March 2020 00: 17
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                        Quote: 123
                        No, not critical, there are many suppliers, if supplies cease, this is unpleasant, but tragedy will not happen.

                        I understand correctly, only grain is a critical supply?

                        Quote: 123
                        Providing milk is 84%, try adding another 35%. Do not find that does not converge?

                        https://www.rbc.ru/business/09/07/2019/5d2329ce9a79477c8af30c1d

                        This year, tens of thousands of cows were bought, 90% will soon catch up to the food security doctrine.

                        RBC is, of course, a reputable publishing house (by the way, thanks for confirming my words about the rise in price of goods due to import substitution), but it says 37:

                        https://www.gks.ru/folder/11188

                        The share of imports of individual goods in their commodity resources.

                        Quote: 123
                        They became less since the days of the USSR? Look for the sake of interest what rare earth metals are and how many there are in the world except China.

                        Yes, the richest deposits remained in Kazakhstan. Like uranium.

                        http://metallicheckiy-portal.ru/articles/ydelnii_ves_metallov/udelnii_ves_stali

                        https://aftershock.news/?q=node/749657&full

                        Quote: 123
                        All countries, without exception, do not provide themselves with everything necessary. No one considers this critical and does not completely switch to self-sufficiency. But for some reason, the idea that everything has disappeared from us and that we are bent, because we do not have everything of ours, has gotten into your bright head.

                        Again, I agree with the swami that all countries do not provide for themselves, and therefore I do not understand your dreams of critical supplies. Where did I say that everything was gone?

                        Quote: 123
                        Are problems with the Superjet critical for you? How disastrous is this for you?

                        For me, nothing is critical at all, even if there were 20 percent of imported grain in bread, I would not see a problem. I see a problem in the fact that due to the strong dependence of the Russian Federation on oil and gas exports, I have become poorer over the past couple of weeks.

                        Quote: 123
                        Only a nerd can believe that you can immediately completely make your plane from scratch. Not a single civilian aircraft is made without imported components.

                        I completely agree with you, moreover. it is impossible to call a very smart person who dreams of creating an economy independent of the world.

                        Quote: 123
                        With what trash such data? From there, where is it written about milk?

                        Well, obviously not with the one where you got about 45 billion.

                        https://www.forbes.ru/biznes/388839-provalnyy-kurs-pochemu-importozameshchenie-ne-opravdalo-nadezhd

                        Quote: 123
                        Do you live in your own fantasy world? No one can completely eliminate external influence. In one way or another, everything depends on others. We are not alone on the planet. There is a suitable definition:

                        Strange you. Are you arguing with yourself? Actually, I affirm that the world is global and mutual influence is only intensifying.

                        Quote: 123
                        USA Why did you drag here? Just looking for someone else more and comparing with them to confirm your opinion? Compare with Libya, there is more growth. If the US has a growing economy, this does not mean that the reason for the sanction. And in general, do you think that the goal of the sanctions was to lower the growth of the economy? As far as I remember, the requirements were put forward completely different.
                        As for Germany

                        Everything is relative. Why do you want Russia to keep up with the West? So you think that the modest growth of the Russian economy is not connected with sanctions, but the pure incompetence of the Russian leadership.
                        And as for Germany.

                        https://www.heritage.org/index/country/germany

                        Germany's average annual growth over five years 1,9%
                        The average annual growth of Russia for five years is 0,5%.
                      4. 123 Offline
                        123 (123) 24 March 2020 08: 07
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                        I understand correctly, only grain is a critical supply?

                        No, you misunderstand. Keyword here critical. Imagine that in 1985, the United States and Canada announced sanctions and cut off grain supplies. And that’s all. We begin to swallow the bark from the trees. There is no bread without wheat. Without corn, cattle dies.
                        To stop the delivery of the goods you listed is either impossible to stop at the same time, or the cessation of their supply will not lead to disastrous consequences. Do you consider milk dependence critical? How can this be organized? By decision of Brussels or Washington? Tell Lukashenko that he should pour milk into the river, the main market for him is Russia. I already spoke about uranium, now it’s practically an inexhaustible supply, fuel is reused. Etc.

                        RBC publishing house, of course, authoritative (by the way, thanks for confirming my words about the rise in price of goods due to import substitution), but it says 37.

                        https://www.gks.ru/folder/11188

                        "The share of imports of individual goods in their commodity resources"

                        I didn’t find the link where you saw the “share of imports of goods in their commodity resources”, I had to search on my own, on the same site I went to the section “Indicators characterizing import substitution in Russia”, there is a table “Balance of resources and use of milk and milk products” across the Russian Federation. " Data from there:

                        Production 79,5%, imports 16,2%, another 4,3% stock.

                        (as far as I understand, this is rolling over from last year).

                        Import 16,2% of the data are quite comparable with the data provided by RBC - 84% of its own production.

                        How 37% can be derived from these figures, I do not understand. request As for the "authoritative publication", I do not fully share your opinion. It was just the first link that came up with reliable statistics, no more.

                        Yes, the richest deposits remained in Kazakhstan. Like uranium.

                        http://metallicheckiy-portal.ru/articles/ydelnii_ves_metallov/udelnii_ves_stali

                        https://aftershock.news/?q=node/749657&full

                        I already explained to you about uranium, I can only add that Russia is the world leader in the production of nuclear fuel.

                        For me, nothing is critical at all, even if there were 20 percent of imported grain in bread, I would not see a problem.

                        You do not quite understand the meaning of the concept critical. If sanctions were introduced in 1985, you would not have 20% of imported grain, but 50% of spruce sawdust in a loaf.

                        I see a problem in the fact that due to the strong dependence of the Russian Federation on oil and gas exports, I have become poorer over the past couple of weeks.

                        With all due respect, it is not so important for the rest of the world how much richer or poorer you personally have become. In other words. I personally, and, I believe, the vast majority of those around me, are deeply purple. what is your condition. If you are so critically dependent on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, can you change your country of residence? I see no other way to help your grief. request

                        I completely agree with you, moreover, you cannot call a very smart person who dreams of creating an independent economy from the world.

                        Call this person? Preferably with a quote. winked

                        Well, obviously not with the one where you got about 45 billion.

                        https://www.forbes.ru/biznes/388839-provalnyy-kurs-pochemu-importozameshchenie-ne-opravdalo-nadezhd

                        I did not find information on the link you provided that 90% of industrial equipment is imported. The import share is huge, but not 90%, in addition, the main reason is indicated there:

                        the domestic market of the Russian Federation does not provide sufficient demand. Dependence on imports remains, since it is easier to buy abroad in the right amount than to produce “at the warehouse”.

                        Dependence is not critical, if necessary, they can do it all themselves, but according to economic views it is cheaper to purchase abroad.

                        Everything is relative.

                        Gold words. good Let's compare. yes

                        Why do you want Russia to keep up with the West?

                        Are you lying or are you mistaken? Please quote me. hi

                        So you think that the modest growth of the Russian economy is not connected with sanctions, but the pure incompetence of the Russian leadership.

                        You could come to such a conclusion only because of your personal incompetence, I would even say more, but the site’s policy does not allow it.

                        And as for Germany

                        https://www.heritage.org/index/country/germany

                        Germany's average annual growth over five years 1,9%
                        Five-year average annual growth of Russia 0,5%

                        So let's compare. Are we talking about the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and critical dependence? Then it is wise to consider this data in more detail. Germany's total growth over 5 years is really higher. Let's look at the reasons. By years (2015-2019), this will look like this:
                        Germany + 1,7% + 1,9% + 2,2% + 1,4% + 0,7%
                        Russia -3,7% -0,6% + 1,6% + 2,3% + 1,2%
                        In 2014, after the imposition of sanctions, the economy sank, but withstood the blow, and although at a small pace, it is growing. The impact of sanctions is not critical. The past two years, the growth rate is higher than that of Germany itself, and sanctions do not have such a negative impact on it. The imposition of sanctions was determined by political requirements, as a result they received "ears from a dead donkey."
                        For 5 years they have not achieved any political concessions or strangulation of the economy.
                        All your statements to the contrary have no real basis and are very similar to the desire to kiss the shoes of a foreign owner. yes
                      5. Oleg Rambover Offline
                        Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 26 March 2020 01: 21
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                        Quote: 123
                        No, you misunderstand. The keyword here is critical.

                        Can you announce the whole list?

                        Quote: 123
                        Imagine that in 1985, the United States and Canada announced sanctions and cut off grain supplies.

                        No, I can’t imagine. Has it ever happened in history? Do you think the Soviet leadership is completely mentally retarded in order to become completely dependent on the United States? And imagine what will happen if an embargo on oil is introduced? And then also for gas?
                        This has been done more than once.

                        Quote: 123
                        I already explained to you about uranium, I can only add that Russia is the world leader in the production of nuclear fuel.

                        Yes, but they are produced mainly from imported raw materials.

                        Quote: 123
                        With all due respect, it is not so important for the rest of the world how much richer or poorer you personally have become.

                        You do not like Russians. Everyone who receives a salary in rubles and keeps their savings in them, have become poorer, should they all be blamed? Forgive me, as a true patriot, do you get your salary in dollars and keep it in them? Or do you like to get poor?

                        Quote: 123
                        Call this person? Preferably with a quote.

                        http://bloknot.ru/rossiya/putin-ob-importozameshhenii-my-absolyutno-vse-mozhem-sdelat-sami-100220.html

                        Quote: 123
                        I didn’t find information on the link you provided that 90% of industrial equipment is imported

                        Other markets did not show such results either: oil and gas engineering continues to be 71% dependent on imports, machine-building - 93%, medicine - 73%, light industry - 78%, timber industry - 87%.

                        Imagine what will happen if all this is no longer delivered?
                        60 percent of imported drugs, what will happen if they stop selling?

                        Quote: 123
                        Dependence is not critical, if necessary, they can do it all themselves, but according to economic views it is cheaper to purchase abroad.

                        Right tomorrow?

                        Quote: 123
                        Are you lying or are you mistaken? Please quote me.

                        Unlike you, I'm not lying. Imagine, in order to catch up and overtake Germany, it is necessary that the economy grows faster than the German. But you do not see the problem in that the growth of our economy is lower than the German one, and Putin’s dreams do not come true.

                        https://www.rbc.ru/economics/25/05/2018/5b085c769a79472f8124350b

                        Quote: 123
                        You could come to such a conclusion only because of your personal incompetence, I would even say more, but the site’s policy does not allow it.

                        What a whim you are, I offered you one option, another, and you turn your nose. Well then tell me your supercompetent, I’m not afraid of the word ingenious, opinion about Russia's economic failures.

                        Quote: 123
                        So let's compare. Are we talking about the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and critical dependence? Then it is wise to consider this data in more detail. Germany's total growth over 5 years is really higher. Let's look at the reasons. By years (2015-2019), this will look like this:
                        Germany + 1,7% + 1,9% + 2,2% + 1,4% + 0,7%
                        Russia -3,7% -0,6% + 1,6% + 2,3% + 1,2%

                        Well, what's the bottom line? For 5 years, the German economy grew on average 1,9 Russia by 0,5. That bish we lagged behind.

                        Quote: 123
                        In 2014, after the imposition of sanctions, the economy sank, but withstood the blow, and although at a small pace, it is growing. The past two years, the growth rate is higher than that of Germany itself, and sanctions do not have such a negative impact on it.

                        So do you think that all the sanctions have affected the Russian economy? Decide already.

                        https://www.rbc.ru/economics/14/08/2019/5d51780c9a7947cd5eb6eb56

                        Quote: 123
                        For 5 years they have not achieved any political concessions or strangulation of the economy.
                        All your statements to the contrary have no real basis and are very similar to the desire to kiss the shoes of a foreign owner.

                        Where did I say that? Again your fantasies?
                        And about the shoes of the owner, again rude. Here explain why as a patriot, so boor. Why are people like you not capable of slipping into rudeness? I’m not telling you that you lick there with your bosses of the authorities, although it’s very similar.
  • fevralsk.morev.75 (Sergey Morev) 21 March 2020 21: 05
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    At the time of Reagan, the USSR sat more on the export of galoshes to Africa than on oil exports. The Guarantor himself pushed such a zombie. True true.
  • KAMIKADZE_2 Offline
    KAMIKADZE_2 (KAMIKADZE divine) 20 March 2020 21: 59
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    It's okay, oil tycoons will tighten the economic belt on themselves.
  • Alien on this holiday of life 21 March 2020 14: 22
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    What is happening is the result of a prolonged negative selection of the ruling class and the degradation of the population of the Russian Federation. Ibn Khaldun wrote well about such degrading societies:

    The ruling class, which has reached a complete monopoly of power, grows over time and increases its needs, which reduces its ability to adequately respond to the depletion of public resources, the decline in economic activity, the impoverishment and degradation of the population, and the loss of power.

    It is not surprising that those who came off the coils of their own greatness, illiterate people from the gateway, having walked, put their country in a catastrophic situation. There are simply no others there. One can get out of the gateway physically, it is much more difficult to pull the gateway out of oneself.