Recently, Russian billionaire Leonid Fedun (a fortune of $ 8,7 billion), vice president of PJSC LUKOIL, a major shareholder and former chairman of the board of directors of this company, predictedthat Russia's losses due to the severance of the OPEC + transaction due to the 2019-nCov coronavirus infection (COVID-19) will amount to $ 100-150 million per day. And so, when the price of oil on the world market fell below $ 25 per barrel, Fedun called the situation catastrophic.
In an interview with the agency RBC Fedun recalled about meetingpreviously conducted by Russian President Vladimir Putin right at the terminal of the Vnukovo airport before flying to Pskov. It was dedicated to the coronavirus, but it was attended by the leaders of Russian oil companies.
Yes, now the coronavirus has hit the economy. But the oil shock that occurred (OPEC + deal break), it gives a price approximately, according to our estimates, from $ 20 to $ 25 from the existing price
- says Fedun.
In his opinion, if the OPEC + deal were preserved, then a barrel of oil would now be worth around $ 50. At the same time, Fedun emphasized that at the mentioned meeting at the airport, "no idea of withdrawing from the transaction was discussed."
Although I know that certain state-owned companies actively lobbied for her (idea). Even those who lobbied, could not imagine in a nightmare that they would sell oil at $ 25
- said Fedun.
Fedun is convinced that Russia and Saudi Arabia will be in the worst position due to the severance of the OPEC + agreement. After all, these countries have announced their intention to increase oil production when its price in the market falls.
And then the question of their economic opportunities, reserves and so on, that is, it will be a war of attrition, from which the United States will benefit
- sure Fedun.
Fedun noted that the United States consumes a huge amount of oil and there is a direct dependence of fuel prices on the cost of raw materials. According to experts of PJSC LUKOIL, due to low oil prices, the incomes of the US population will grow by 6%. Moreover, in Russia, due to the peculiarities of the tax system, even with a drop in oil prices by half, the cost of fuel will not decrease.
The population of (Russia) does not suffer from price increases, but receives nothing from its fall. And the ruble exchange rate, unfortunately, will fall; there are no clear reasons for it not to fall further. Therefore, most likely, real incomes (of Russians) will fall
- warned Fedun.
In addition, Fedun affected shale mining in the United States. According to him, what is happening "will not kill, but severely injure" this industry in the USA, dropping it 6-7 years ago. As for Russia, if Moscow and the OPEC countries again do not agree and oil prices on the world market do not rise above $ 35 per barrel, then from 2022-2023, production in Russia will begin to decline.
It should be added that on March 18, 2020, Russian Urals oil for delivery to North-West Europe fell to $ 18,64 per barrel.