The fall of the ruble: the coming years for Russia will be very difficult

At the end of February, “Reporter” came out publication with the title "Why the ruble remains stable no matter what." Yes, our national currency stayed crisp against the renminbi or Turkish lira. Everything changed already on "black Monday" on March 9th.

March 18, 2020 the dollar was already worth 80 rubles per unit, and the euro - more than 87 rubles. So what went wrong, try to figure it out.

In the article mentioned above, we cited the main factors that influenced until recently the stability of the Russian currency. Chief among them were high oil prices: at that time a barrel was worth $ 59,3 per barrel. Well, one cannot help it, so as not to quote the comment of one regular reader of the "Reporter", the all-knowing "network expert" under the nickname "123":

If I’m not mistaken in the exact amount, everything above 40 dollars automatically goes into the “capsule”, this has not affected the ruble exchange rate for a long time, from the word at all.

Our loyal reader was mistaken; the connection between “black gold” and the ruble exchange rate is the most direct. Due to the outbreak of the “oil war”, the price of a barrel dipped yesterday to $ 28, and then to $ 26. Thus, a 17-year-old anti-record was repeated. A pair of euro-dollar instantly soared in price. But why did this happen, contrary to "expert opinion"?

In that February publication, we outlined the conditions under which the ruble exchange rate could give weakness. Among them were the Chinese coronavirus, which hit the economy Celestial from the inside, as well as a decrease in demand for oil and its cheapening. In general, we have to admit that all this came true. The only thing that was not taken into account then was that the Rosneft leadership decided to play a trade war with the USA and Saudi Arabia, having arranged a real crisis at the wrong time. Well, who could have known what might come to their mind?

As a result, we have an "American" at a price of 80 rubles instead of 70-71 according to the then most negative forecasts. Now its cost artificially lowers to the level of 77 rubles. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation by large-scale currency sales. What for? Well, it’s clear that the Russians went in April and voted for amendments to the Constitution that would “nullify” President Putin and allow his faithful management team to engage in his two more terms. After the plebiscite, it is likely that the ruble will be lowered into free fall.

The coming years will be very difficult for Russia. Amid the coronavirus epidemic, business activity is declining in the world's main manufacturing economy, China, on which the federal budget is seriously dependent on trade. Saudi Arabia continues dumping, promising to pour even more oil on the world market, having launched competitors around the world. Analysts at Bloomberg threaten the cost of a dollar for 100 rubles. Obviously, the head of Sberbank German Gref is tied to the same “switch”, because in his forecast he calls similar figures: dollar - 100, oil -20.

Different assessments are made of when the next bottom will be broken and recovery will begin. Some experts say that by May the situation will be reversed. Others believe that what is happening is very similar to the beginning of a new "Great Depression."
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  1. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
    Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 19 March 2020 11: 46
    Did you want to strangle your competitors? But I'm afraid the international economy is not really our strong point. Still, a wise man was Chernomyrdin, with his immortal statements.
  2. boriz Online boriz
    boriz (boriz) 19 March 2020 12: 16
    Reader 123 was not mistaken. The relationship between the dollar / ruble ratio is not with oil, but with liberal policies. In connection with the approach of voting for amendments to the Constitution, our liberal financiers lowered (once again) the ruble, hoping to embitter the people against Putin. In 2014, the ruble was lowered by 2 times just from scratch. The ruble for 2015 became the worst currency in the world. But Nabiullina for the same year received a medal from the IMF as the best director of the Central Bank. It’s clear where the instruction came from. According to the results of the beginning of the year, the ruble is again the worst currency.
    The recipe for the stability of the ruble is extremely simple: the current leadership of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance should be removed away from our finances. Preferably, somewhere in sunny Mordovia. For enlightenment of the brain.
    According to the legislation, the Central Bank has the only task: to ensure the stability of the ruble. Nabiullina maliciously does not fulfill this task, creating the basis for abuse.
    Even the Fed also hung up the task of combating unemployment.
    1. Observer2014 Offline Observer2014
      Observer2014 19 March 2020 18: 19
      boriz (boriz) Read you, you might think, Putin is not the same as Medvedev. Or even more interesting, not Yeltsin’s successor.
  3. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 19 March 2020 13: 19
    When the last tree will be cut down, when the last river will be poisoned, when the last bird will be caught - only then you will understand that money cannot be eaten.

    “Not that state with more dollars will survive, but that will have more bread!”
  4. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
    Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 19 March 2020 16: 18
    Such is the unenviable fate of resource-oriented economies. 20 years of tearing off an oil needle flew by in a flash.
  5. Valentine Offline Valentine
    Valentine (Valentin) 19 March 2020 17: 31
    And what, the rest of the years were "bright" for the people of Russia, as Naina says about it? Yes, the people do not care how much the "green" will rise in price, because of this it is neither cold nor hot, as we lived in poverty, and we will vegetate in it, but the Millers and other Abramovichs will howl that they will not buy themselves another ocean yacht with a Super Boeing. Yes, and our celestials, too, have nothing to worry about, who, with their numerous household members, arranged for themselves a tsarist life in Paris and London, and Sobyanin, using our own money, also made a kind of Eldoradoshtadt from Moscow, that Paris and London might envy her in something. , and ordinary people will be interrupted in their Khrushchebs anyway, and there is only a month left before the vote on the constitution.
  6. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 19 March 2020 19: 06
    Here you need to know the share of our oil from major suppliers. If it is impressive, then we must continue to drive cheap oil until suppliers request negotiations. Damage, of course, will be. But there will be no disagreement in advance.
  7. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 20 March 2020 07: 06
    Quote: boriz
    Reader 123 was not mistaken. The relationship between the dollar / ruble ratio is not with oil, but with liberal policies. In connection with the approach of voting for amendments to the Constitution, our liberal financiers lowered (once again) the ruble, hoping to embitter the people against Putin.

    Are you by any chance an activist of "Ours" or "Walking Together"?