Why Russia needs to reduce dependence on China


The coronavirus epidemic, which appeared in China, raised a lot of unpleasant questions. It remains to be seen whether it was of natural origin or man-made, survive the pandemic in general quarantine and develop a vaccine. And you still have to answer the question whether after the victory over COVID-19 the world economy still live?


Coincidence or not, but the virus hit the very heart of the PRC, this “world workshop”, on the well-being of which almost all countries without exception directly depend, including Russia.

The epidemic and forced months-long quarantine caused enormous damage to industrial production and exports from China. In just the first two months of 2020, indicators of exports to our country from the PRC in value terms fell by 29,3%, while Russian exports to China also fell by 13,8%. The fall is very serious, given that the crisis is far from over.

There is something to think about, since Chinese goods for Russia are not only “consumer goods”: clothes, toys, electronics and household appliances technique. Domestic enterprises of machine building, pharmaceuticals, construction and other industries are critically dependent on the supply of components and other materials from China. For example, the Russian KAMAZ recently warned of a possible decrease in production due to a shortage of Chinese auto components.

Yes, what is "consumer goods", Russia also depends on the supply of Chinese food. In particular, in the Far East since the beginning of the year, there has been a sharp jump in prices for a number of food products from China in stores against the backdrop of the coronavirus epidemic. Due to the restriction of movement across the border, a shortage of fresh fruits and vegetables formed, and the owners of outlets immediately raised prices for them, which led to massive complaints from the population to the FAS authorities. Suddenly it turned out that the whole huge region of our country depends on Chinese tomatoes, cucumbers, potatoes, cabbage, carrots, garlic, onions, beets, and also fish.

Problems also appeared among Russian exporters of natural resources, primarily hydrocarbons. Beijing announced the suspension of natural gas imports. Exporters of metals, coal and wood also have a headache. The stocks of raw materials available in China at the beginning of the epidemic and quarantine were not used up, which means that it will be necessary to sell new lots at a huge discount, which can reach 30-40%.

Encouraging start to come from china news. The PRC State Committee for Development and Reform reports that over 90% of large industrial enterprises have restored their production. The volumes of indicators reach 90% of last year's level. The Chinese statistics never caused much confidence, but it is partially confirmed by the American agency Bloomberg, which names the figures at 80-85% of the previous production capacity. International transport and logistics companies report an increase in traffic, the movement of goods in both directions resumes: from Asia to Europe and vice versa.

It turns out that the bottom of the crisis has been broken, and a gradual recovery has begun? It may be so. But it’s time to wonder how similar dependence of all countries, and Russia in particular, on China, corresponds to the interests of national security? Is it time to draw some strategic conclusions and increase the level of self-sufficiency, as well as reduce the dependence of the budget on the export of hydrocarbons and other raw materials, which is in the PRC and the West?

Or just shake off and continue to live the old way, until the next crisis?
14 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.
I have an account? Sign in
  1. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
    Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 18 March 2020 11: 14
    -4
    What, now turn back to the West?
    1. cmonman Offline cmonman
      cmonman (Garik Mokin) 18 March 2020 23: 36
      -2
      What, now turn back to the West?

      Oleg, you got a bunch of Cons, because wrong side of the world. For experience, I will put the other side and see:

      What, now turn to the North? South?
  2. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
    Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 18 March 2020 11: 42
    -5
    All this has long been clear. Only here some "strategists", choking, at times make plans for a joint division of the world with China. Sometimes Iran is also dragged there. But these are the most "frostbitten". But for some reason, even they don't remember about "friendship" with Turkey ...
  3. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 18 March 2020 13: 09
    -3
    Quote: Oleg Rambover
    What, now turn back to the West?

    One must be a "thing in itself".
    1. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
      Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 18 March 2020 17: 38
      -2
      Quote: Marzhetsky
      One must be a "thing in itself".

      As far as I know, some countries tried to implement autocracy, it ended badly everywhere.
  4. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 18 March 2020 13: 47
    +4
    Russia needs to reduce its dependence on foreign countries as a whole, and not just on China! The story with the Mistrals has completely proved to itself that not everything can be bought abroad and far from always this foreign country behaves honestly and wants to take into account the interests of the Russian Federation!
  5. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 18 March 2020 14: 46
    0
    Domestic enterprises of machine building, pharmaceuticals, construction and other industries are critically dependent on the supply of components and other materials from China. For example, the Russian KAMAZ recently warned of a possible decrease in production due to a shortage of Chinese auto components.

    This, of course, is bad, but the modern world is so arranged. Globalization, international cooperation, subsistence farming are not held in high esteem. It is impossible to do everything yourself.

    Suddenly it became clear that the whole huge region of our country depends on Chinese tomatoes, cucumbers, potatoes, cabbage, carrots, garlic, onions, beets, and also fish.

    Why then all of a sudden? Didn't know this before? Products have always been brought to the Far East. From China it is more convenient and cheaper to do than from the European part of the country. I think that in the Kaliningrad region, despite sanctions and counter-sanctions, it is full of goods from the EU, just logistics is better.

    But it’s time to wonder how similar dependence of all countries, and Russia in particular, on China corresponds to the interests of national security? Is it time to draw some strategic conclusions and increase the level of self-sufficiency, as well as reduce the dependence of the budget on the export of hydrocarbons and other raw materials in the PRC and the West?

    Increasing the level of self-sufficiency is, of course, good, but in order not to depend on the "factory of the world", one must become the "factory of the world" ourselves, otherwise it will not work. It remains to agree with the rest of the world on the transfer of production. Reducing the dependence of the budget on the export of raw materials is a correct and tempting idea. But the reality is that Europe and China are regions with developed industrial production and an insufficient resource base. They will buy these resources, if not from us, then in other places. The USA, for example, will gladly replace us. For some reason they are not afraid of the prospect of becoming a raw material appendage. request
    If we stop exporting raw materials to the EU and China, then we will completely close trade with them? Selling industrial products in these markets is not easy. Ukrainian experience to help you. In Europe, all quotas are different standards. In China, the situation is even more fun. yes You can try to sell them cars. yes Remind me, who knows how many car factories they have left there? Less than a hundred or more? Yes, there are still protective duties. You can consider the prospects for exporting high technology. There, they say, we are setting up production of equipment for 5G, maybe try to sell it to them? belay About the prospects of Yandex, Mile.ru, Odnoklassniki, Vkontakte and others in the Chinese market, I think there is no need to explain?
    In general, it is extremely difficult to break into these markets with high-tech products with high added value. The place there is occupied and not at all welcome by a stranger. The domestic market is not enough for the normal development of industry. We need to create our own markets, the Near Abroad, Africa, Latin America.
    1. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 21 March 2020 09: 40
      0
      You are again about marketing. In our country, the whole economy is set up for export. This bend is no good.
  6. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 18 March 2020 15: 17
    -1
    It is necessary, it is not necessary, but the money does not smell, and the oil pipe does not wait.

    And experts usually don’t even have their own candle factory .... even for the domestic market ....
  7. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 18 March 2020 17: 44
    0
    - The author writes ... ordinary everyday things ... - Personally, I will give him a plus ... - But then again ... it's not like that ... - Russia should not start with this logistics ...
    - But you need to start with the fact that every Russian from an early age needs to be explained that everything Chinese ... is bad ...- What is a synonym for bad ...- it's all Chinese ... - That there is nothing good for Russians, what is produced in China ... - That Chinese food, things and everything that is produced in China ...- all this is absolutely unsuitable for Russians ... - And every Russian from childhood should understand what the people of Russia themselves must do all things yourself ... - And what exactly these things will be the best in the world ... - But you don’t need to use Chinese things at all and try not to get them thief ... - Yes .. it seems to be problematic in the beginning .. and then people will learn to think and to do it in such a direction ... - This is all Russian children must absorb with their mother's milk ...
    - For this, of course, we need a guarantor and the Russian government, which will begin to promote all this in life .., i.e. to create Russian production ... - for this, Russia has absolutely everything ... - But our government and the guarantor do nothing to make Russian production get rid of Chinese dependence ...
    - Indeed, even today in Russia, people gradually began to look and give preference to environmentally friendly, high-quality products ... - And Chinese products will never be environmentally-friendly ... - and often ...- even harmful ... - Well, that’s here ...- we have to start from this ... - Unfortunately, our Russian leadership is too zealously supporting China ...; but you need a completely different vision and solution to the problem of Russia's dependence on China ...
    - Russia just needs a completely different policy in "this area" ...
  8. cmonman Offline cmonman
    cmonman (Garik Mokin) 18 March 2020 23: 30
    -2
    It remains to be seen whether it was of natural origin or man-made

    Sergey, and who are you suggesting to deal with - China? Russia? Europe? To readers? If to readers, then I say right away - it was man-made, because any other info is not accepted (unprofitable / impossible without enemies - there must be conspiracy !!). Pull everything on the USA - and viruses, and the prices, and a crop failure somewhere, low birth rate ...
    Forum, do not be shy - given the go-ahead ....
  9. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 19 March 2020 08: 28
    0
    Quote: cmonman
    Sergey, and who are you suggesting to deal with - China? Russia? Europe? To readers? If to readers, then I say right away - it was man-made, because any other info is not accepted (unprofitable / impossible without enemies - there must be conspiracy !!). Pull everything on the USA - and viruses, and the prices, and a crop failure somewhere, low birth rate ...
    Forum, do not be shy - given the go-ahead ....

    Thank you, without your permission and valuable guidance, we would certainly not have figured it out ourselves.
    1. cmonman Offline cmonman
      cmonman (Garik Mokin) 19 March 2020 16: 28
      -1
      Sergey, as the classic says:

      Sir, I’m bored with you, I want to sleep with you!

      Sergey, well, do not be a beech! You in the article hinted to us, readers, to dream up on the origin of the virus.
      And you know very well that in the epicenter of the province of China, where the virus spread from, neither representatives of the UN, Russia, the United States or anyone else were allowed or will NOT be allowed. One can only guess or believe the Chinese (or not believe).
      Knowing the readers ’“ love ”for America, I immediately confessed where / who invented the virus. Let’s better fantasize about HOW he was delivered there, to this province.
      And further. You once asked me, “what am I doing on Russian sites”.
      I answer - I have a fan, the pleasure of reading comments! And some comments make me “keen to respond”.
      For example, one writes:

      I am pleased to see the collapse of the evil empire - the USA!

      Well, after such a comment, do not ask:

      Can you share the source of your longevity?

      And I got a bunch of minuses for some reason ... wink
      You yourself see how interesting / fun it is to read your articles ... smile
  10. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 21 March 2020 09: 48
    +1
    Everyone writes that it is necessary to change the economy. But how? Locked in yourself? Will not work. Due to the most important components that are not in our nature. How do developed countries differ from others? The fact that they can process all imports. Therefore, raw countries are drawn to them. Which are not afraid of any sanctions. They will be supported in any case.