Gref's scenario: dollar - 100, oil - 20

Sberbank experts calculated which scenarios can develop economic crisis due to the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.

German Gref, Chairman of the Board, told how the most negative scenario for the Russian economy would look like.

According to the banker, in this case, the value of the dollar will rise to 100 rubles, and the cost of a barrel of oil will drop to $ 20. At the same time, he assured that Sberbank was able to withstand such a blow and there would be “no dramatic consequences” for Sberbank and its customers.

The head of Sberbank also noted that in the case of the most negative scenario, the country's economy will survive several shocks at once: a number of production chains will be broken and some enterprises will be stopped.

Sberbank experts’ gloomy forecasts have every reason: according to the Federal Customs Service (FCS), in January, oil exports from Russia to China fell by almost 30% compared to the same period last year.

The main and only cause of this decline is the coronavirus epidemic, which began in China.

A number of experts expect China to "come out of a coma" and cooperation with it will be fully restored. However, this scenario seems too optimistic, since the coronavirus has affected not only China, but also the countries for which it produces products.

Consequently, cooperation with China in full will be possible only when the importing countries of Chinese products are restored.
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  1. Potapov Offline Potapov
    Potapov (Valery) 18 March 2020 09: 11
    The boy said - the boy did ...
  2. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 18 March 2020 10: 05
    A number of experts expect China to "come out of a coma" and cooperation with it will be fully restored.

    - Here you are, "ardent fanatics" of China ... as they say .. "arrived" ... - Without China, it turns out, Russia and life is not ...
    - And latent Chinese site visitors can only be happy ...
    - But only the ardent fanatics of China ... - personally, I can, in addition, still upset with a sufficiently weighty assumption ..
    - Namely ... - as soon as China "comes out of a coma," it is quite possible that it will open its own supply of excellent Iranian oil; and it will also start trading this wonderful Iranian oil ... - And China can also continue to buy Russian oil, only at such a bargain price that it will cost him almost nothing ...
    - So, in the very near future, the world will face a new global oil trader ...- China ...
    - And only the United States, perhaps, will be able to somehow restrain China and at least somehow limit China with at least some kind of "trade framework" ...
    - As for Russia, it is slipping into the positions of an absolute outsider ...
    - This is what such "unrestrained and unrequited love" for China leads to ...