Six months later, the economic model of Russia can give slack


What is happening today with oil quotes is now called the beginning of the global economic crisis. Too much coincided: the collapse of the OPEC + deal and the coronavirus pandemic. It is now easy to guess that the main loser is Russia, appointed by Washington a threat to its national security, and the United States and its allies are the main winners.


Involuntarily one has to wonder why the deal fell apart right now?

Earlier, domestic experts condemned the OPEC + agreement, since it clearly worked in the interests of the United States. The decline in the production of “black gold” made it possible to keep high quotes and ensure profit for the American shale industry. Now the deal has virtually ceased to exist, although legally it is still valid until April 1.

Two leading US companies, ExxonMobil and Chevron, managed to earn a tidy sum of $ 50 billion over four years from the OPEC + deal. Oil production grew from 8,9 million barrels per day to 13,1 million barrels, and export of "black gold" - 5 times. The Saudis did not waste time in vain either: Riyadh conducted a public offering of shares in Saudi Aramco, and directed the funds received to a program of socio-economic reforms in the country.

In other words, the Allies managed to remove all the cream from high oil prices. How did Russia manage its excess profits? True, she hid them in the NWF without investing in the development of the national economics. Now for this shortsighted policies Moscow will have to pay all the Russians.

Middle Eastern oil-producing countries have united against Russia, throwing additional volumes of raw materials onto the market, and even at a discount. Moreover, Sadovaya Arabia is the most zealous. It would seem that the allied Washington Riyadh is working against American oil, which needs high prices. But everything is a little more complicated.

Now the war is not for price, but for market share. Winners will take the place of the loser, and the one with less safety margin will lose. Large shale workers in the United States will be able to survive this confrontation on the depletion of resources, the bankrupt will simply return to business without debt. In Russia, the authorities rely on funds from the NWF, but it seems to be too optimistic. Each month, our country will lose at least $ 2 billion, and gas exporters will soon begin to lose, because its value is tied to black gold in contracts. The Power of Siberia pipeline has already been put up for prevention.

In just six months, the general picture of the collapse of the economic model of Russia, based on the export of oil and gas, will manifest in all its glory.
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  1. Vladimir_ Voronov (Vladimir) 13 March 2020 14: 36
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    It would seem that the allied Washington Riyadh is working against American oil, which needs high prices.

    Now the war is not for price, but for market share. Winners will take the place of the loser

    Some two mutually exclusive statements. If the price is low, then the Saudis are driving the US out of the oil market. Moreover, the US has already begun talking about a conspiracy between Russia and the Saudis against the United States. And then there are the Chinese, with the assertion that the United States is the author of the coronavirus. And also the prerequisites of the American Civil War.
    Sergey, leave your alarmist moods and just bring ALL factors together. Maybe the conclusion will be different. And finally, diamond and coal are one chemical element, but the first is the result of strong pressure. So are people ...
  2. Bulanov Offline
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 13 March 2020 15: 07
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    Now the war is not for price, but for market share.

    The market share in Russia itself is huge, if you restore industry and pay people normal money to warm up the economy. And this does not need foreign specialists. Give way to your business executives, patriots.
  3. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 13 March 2020 16: 40
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    Six months later, the economic model of Russia can give slack.

    - What is this "economic model of Russia" ??? - Hahah ...- Has anyone ever heard of such a thing ???

    - And which half year ??? - Tomorrow, the Ministry of Finance will transfer part of the reserves from the NWF to the Chinese yuan ... - This is already called arrived ... - All my forecasts begin to come true in the worst version ...
    - Sinking Russia ... as always ... - rushed to save China ... - And what kind of

    10 trillion rubles of reserves should be enough for Russia to survive the oil drop ..

    - And how should this NWF be enough for all declared 6-10 years ???
    - The Russian oil company already owes China an amount of $ 45 billion and our Ministry of Finance did not find a better time to squander the NWF reserves now; and even invest them in China ... - After all, quite recently, Russia was so burnt on deposits in the Chinese wrapper yuan that it seemed; after this, any one would simply begin to repeat this ... - But Russia does not care at all ...
    - Personally, for the first time I am glad that the gold of Russia does not belong to Russia ... - and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, although it is stored in the Central Bank of Russia in Moscow (and a small part in St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg) ...- And the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is disposed of by the United States. .. - And then the Americans will not give Russia with du_ru another Russian gold to enter China ...
    - It seems that the entire leadership and government of Russia do not think at all about the future of Russia; and fulfills the evil will of Russia's obvious enemies ... - I would like to be wrong ... - But ...- alas ...
    1. Observer2014 Offline
      Observer2014 14 March 2020 17: 04
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      What is this "economic model of Russia" ??? - Hahah ...- Has anyone ever heard of such a thing ???

      belay laughing good We have here a herd of bonds nearby .... on the building of the FMS drove. Probably this. This very model is. Selflessly serve the homeland. bully
  4. Yevgeny Mikhailov (Vyacheslav Plotnikov) 13 March 2020 16: 58
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    This year is nothing particularly “new” about the Republic of Kazakhstan (“Capitalist Russia” does not show. Everything was very clear to her 10 years ago. As it was a weak and frivolous state, dependent on the West, it remains so. The thing is different.
    The world begins to see clearly that the "king is naked." That this state is "quite-at-all" ns with a t. E. Empty "like a tambourine." There is nothing! Neither a coherent governance structure, nor a structure of democracy ... There is no independent financial SYSTEM, there is no EDUCATION, there is no state-owned quality MEDICINE, there is no serious law enforcement SYSTEM ... There is no civil aviation, almost no worthy examples auto and motorcycle equipment ... Weak army and navy (this is evidenced by the “pulling the tail” of a famous cat in both Donbass and Syria. For more than five (5) years ... The Union during this time brought Germany and its allies to their knees and I didn’t forget about militaristic Japan ....).
    And now the world sees all THIS and draws appropriate conclusions. RK cease to be taken seriously. They begin to be rude, “not to notice” (as “not noticed” in China, the interests of the Republic of Kazakhstan in Belarus). "Effective managers" of the Republic of Kazakhstan are starting to get nervous, make mistakes ...
    "TIME OF REFORM" RK "overslept", because of self-confidence, self-confidence of Russian-speaking "managers". And now another time has come - "TIME TO KEEP THE SHOCK". It has ALREADY come, RK does not have any “temporary reserves”.
    1. boriz Offline
      boriz (boriz) 14 March 2020 17: 19
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      You live in a parallel universe. In the eyes of everyone in Russia, reforms are underway for the third month, Putin has just moved from the stage of "holding the blow" to the stage of striking, and you are blinded. And it is a strong army that covers these reforms. It would never occur to anyone to try to wring their hands. And Putin was able to start reforms earlier than Trump and X. And it will be calm to carry them out, while Trump, C and the EU will gnaw each other's throats in the struggle to change trade balances.
  5. 123 Offline
    123 (123) 13 March 2020 17: 00
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    It is now easy to guess that the main loser is Russia, appointed by Washington a threat to its national security, and the United States and its allies are the main winners.

    From this phrase alone it is not difficult to guess who the author of the article and its general content are. laughing The main "victim" of the site, tirelessly singing the lost polymers. winked

    Earlier, domestic experts condemned the OPEC + agreement, since it clearly worked in the interests of the United States. The decline in the production of “black gold” made it possible to keep high quotes and ensure profits for the American oil shale industry.

    If the agreement works in the interests of the United States, it would be wise to withdraw from it, which, in fact, did. By the way, the decision has long been predicted, this was expected back in 2018, full of optimism for the “shale”, because the “country gas station” was left without loans and technology. Life seemed beautiful and amazing, because:

    The shale oil resource miners have already proven that they can adapt to the current reality. They emerged victorious from the price war with OPEC + countries thanks to large-scale cost reduction and improved drilling technology.

    https://www.forbes.ru/biznes/356789-amerikanskaya-ugroza-chem-rossiya-otvetit-na-rost-dobychi-slancevoy-nefti-v-ssha

    By the way, it’s interesting to see how they will prove it now. winked But the author is unhappy no it turns out

    Two leading US companies, ExxonMobil and Chevron, managed to earn a tidy sum of $ 50 billion over four years from the OPEC + deal. Oil production grew from 8,9 million barrels per day to 13,1 million barrels, and export of "black gold" - 5 times. The Saudis did not waste time in vain either: Riyadh conducted a public offering of shares in Saudi Aramco, and directed the funds received to a program of socio-economic reforms in the country.

    Pretty curious statement. Let's see how things turned out for American oil workers, for example, in 2018.

    In the first 40 days since the beginning of the price collapse in early October 2018, the global oil and gas industry has missed $ 1 trillion, almost a quarter of its total value.
    So, the shareholders of ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell lost almost $ 3 billion each from October 13 to November 35, BP - $ 24 billion each, Total and Chevron - $ 20 billion each, ConocoPhillips - $ 18 billion. WTI crude oil prices have fallen by more than 25% over this time. S&P 500 energy indices lost $ 240 billion in forty days.

    http://neftianka.ru/neftyanye-kompanii-poteryali-1-trln-dollarov/

    The same ExxonMobil that earned together with Chevron 50 billion in 4 years, immediately lost 35 billion.
    Maybe things were not going so smoothly with them? Well come on, back in our time.

    On Monday, oil quotes fell 25% against this background. This was the largest one-day drop in oil prices since 1991. American indices lost more than 7%, and the Dow Jones entered the bear market phase, losing more than 20% of record levels.

    https://bcs-express.ru/novosti-i-analitika/kakim-amerikanskim-kompaniia-rossiia-sdelala-bol-no

    How much ExxonMobil and Chevron have lost this week and how much more will be lost in the near future, the author is modestly silent. sad Yes, I almost forgot to mention the Saudis, who successfully made money and spent everything on

    program of socio-economic reforms in the country

    Apparently, they acted wisely and extremely pragmatically, not like "dunce" from Moscow?

    In other words, the Allies managed to remove all the cream from high oil prices. How did Russia manage its excess profits? True, she hid them in the NWF, without investing in the development of the national economy. Now for this short-sighted policy of Moscow, all Russians will have to pay.

    Following this logic, before a long trip, you should not fill your backpacks with canned goods, it is much more reasonable to gobble up everything before departure. And eat up to the dump, and the burden is not necessary. yes

    Now the war is not for price, but for market share. Winners will take the place of the loser, and the one with less safety margin will lose.

    Reasonable remark, let's see who has what margin of safety. good

    Large shale workers in the United States will be able to survive this confrontation on the depletion of resources, the bankrupt will simply return to business without debt.

    Really? belay That is, they will simply bankrupt the company and there will be no consequences. They’ll put the equipment in the warehouse, and then they’ll get it, voila, fellow here they are again on horseback, ready to mine again .. I wonder why then there is so much screech if our production closes? Sorry for the curiosity, but where will the people working in this sector of the economy go? Will they be put in the freezer until better times? smile

    Producers in the United States benefited from a recovery in activity not only by American but also by foreign oil companies. But the development of production in the US oil producing regions has become a notable factor. According to UBS, from mid-2016 to mid-2017, more than half of the new manufacturing jobs were created in Texas, where one of Permian Basin’s main shale deposits is located.

    https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2018/02/21/751738-slantsevii-perevernul-amerikanskuyu

    This is for a better understanding of the problem.

    In Russia, the authorities rely on funds from the NWF, but it seems to be too optimistic. Each month, our country will lose at least $ 2 billion, and gas exporters will soon begin to lose, because its value is tied to black gold in contracts. The Power of Siberia pipeline has already been put up for prevention.

    The Russian authorities are counting on the NWF, but what are the Saudis counting on? At the mercy of Allah? What about the Americans? Won't they lose anything? How about gas? Will production only grow? I wonder where from? And now what to do with the "bargain" with the Chinese? But they agreed that they would push in $ 200 billion worth of goods, including oil and gas. Where will they now get oil and gas for the Chinese? Will they buy from Russia?
    Consequently, no trade surplus is visible on the horizon, economic growth in the fog, industrial growth and new jobs are now covered by a pretty copper basin. It turns out that America is not so great. request It doesn’t work again. With this, Donald approaches the new election. what

    In just six months, the general picture of the collapse of the economic model of Russia, based on the export of oil and gas, will manifest in all its glory.

    I propose to gather at this place on September 13. Let's see what will appear. yes
  6. Bakht Offline
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 13 March 2020 18: 11
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    Oil is good. Russia will bend at a price of $ 30. And the rest will flourish? Will the Saudis simply bathe in petrodollars? And will America’s shale men throw bonnets into the sky?
    What is the Fed doing now? Or the European Central Bank? I can tell you a secret. The states decided to immediately throw 1 trillion bucks. Trillion!!! For a couple of months. About 200 billion a day. The central bank is weaker. Total decided to throw 200 billion. But the euro. Figures are subject to change. But only upward.
    If you believe the "economists", then there are huge bubbles on the exchanges. And they decided to pump a little more. No one tried to extinguish a fire with gasoline?
    Everyone knows that in the United States they are not joking with taxes:

    The U.S. Internal Revenue Service may well push forward the deadline for paying taxes, which now falls on April 15th. According to the country's finance minister, this will help increase liquidity by $ 200 billion, support small businesses and have a stimulating effect on the economy. At the same time, no direct financing of companies is planned.
  7. Arkharov Offline
    Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 14 March 2020 07: 36
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    Tell someone, but do we have any kind of "economic model"?
    1. boriz Offline
      boriz (boriz) 14 March 2020 17: 10
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      There is a model. It is the same all over the world, just the control center (and pulling the blankets over itself) turned out in the West. But right now, this model is being demolished. Its action has ended, simply because the planet Earth is not infinite. This was written by Adam Smith and Marx. If it’s really interesting, read Khazin's “Remembering the Future”. Yes, there are a lot of letters, but it’s very clear and popularly stated and everything becomes clear.
  8. boriz Offline
    boriz (boriz) 14 March 2020 17: 24
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    In Russia, the authorities rely on funds from the NWF ...

    In Russia, only last year 1,1 trillion rubles from the budget were not spent. And this money has not gone anywhere. And all this money more than 13 trillion rubles. Just sabotage of the government and moronic by-laws do not allow to reach out and take this money. Mishustin is precisely engaged in restoring the controllability of the state apparatus.
  9. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 15 March 2020 08: 05
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    Quote: Vladimir_Voronov
    Some two mutually exclusive statements. If the price is low, then the Saudis push the United States out of the oil market. Moreover, the US has already started talking about a conspiracy between Russia and the Saudis against the United States.

    There is no contradiction here. The weak are knocked out first, and the strong will take their place.
  10. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 15 March 2020 08: 08
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    Quote: boriz
    You live in a parallel universe. In the eyes of everyone in Russia, reforms are underway for the third month, Putin has just moved from the stage of "holding the blow" to the stage of delivering strikes, and you are blinded.

    Putin switched to an operation to turn himself into a permanent president. That is all that happens.
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 15 March 2020 20: 41
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      In the United States, for 50 years, a relative after a relative sits in the White House chair, but this nepotism does not surprise anyone.
      6 families ruled the USA for 100 years, while there were 5 left with the Kennedy assassination. And all immigrants from Ireland. The grandfathers of Reagan and Bush are generally from the same village, and arrived in the United States on the same ship. This is not Stalin-Khrushchev-Brezhnev-Gorbachev-Yeltsin-Putin. This is the presidential grandfather-granddaughter-nephew.
  11. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 15 March 2020 20: 34
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    Rashkafso !!!
    What a jaded record. It would be better to write about Honduras ... winked
  12. master3 Offline
    master3 (Vitali) 18 March 2020 17: 06
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    ... the economic model of Russia.

    - already funny! Is she there?