So, the worst thing happened: the World Health Organization, after much doubt and “fussing”, recognized the wave of COVID-2019 virus that swept through the world as a global pandemic that threatens all of humanity. However, there is no reason for panic, tearing your hair and fainting. The coronavirus is still not a plague or smallpox, which at one time "mowed" entire countries. In percentage terms, mortality among those infected with this infection is not so frightening.
If (pah-pah-pah!) Something extraordinary does not happen, like an unforeseen mutation that will give rise to a new, much more dangerous strain, humanity or some significant part of it is unlikely to die. But the fact that the world will never again be the same as before December 31, 2019 is certain. What can change dramatically in it?
Globalization - into the sewers?
Seeing off the old, 2019 year, humanity did not even suspect that on this festive night it says goodbye to the globalized world order that has become so familiar and convenient for it. Prepared (and practically, already begun) to live, as the great proletarian poet Mayakovsky wrote, "as a single human community", almost without barriers and barriers between states and continents, where huge distances and differences of languages and cultures were leveled, or even reduced altogether to no by modern technology and other manifestations of progress, the human race suddenly ran into an extremely unsightly wrong side of all that it was so proud of. It turned out that the erasing line and the border of globalization have a “dark side”, and not the one that gives away a bit of conspiracy theology that its opponents, who were organizing protests during the summits of the different “Sevens” and “GXNUMX”, shouted for many years, but quite visible and concrete. One of the main horrors of mankind, which threatened him in those days when it was floundering in the mud of the Middle Ages and even several centuries after that - a deadly infection, a deadly weather, pestilence, as it turned out, did not disappear anywhere. It would seem that this scourge was reliably and forever laid in the grave of the development of medicine, pharmacology, the most common hygiene and sanitation. However, the victory turned out to be imaginary. The “killer” deadly epidemics progress itself helped them to return to the world by attaching “wings” that allow them to spread across the planet with unprecedented speed. The opportunity to have breakfast in Shanghai, dine in New York and catch dinner at the Rio carnival before dinner ... Isn't this a wonderful detail of the modern world? Wonderful. In the event that the described movements are not carried out by someone who already, without knowing it, is the carrier of some deadly virus rubbish ...
A no less painful blow was the realization that almost the entire world economy literally for some decade and a half, it turned out to be almost tightly tied to one single country - China. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which last week published a special report that predicts the development of the world economy for the current year, emphasizes that the damage unprecedented in comparison with past epidemics is caused precisely by the fact that “the world economy has become significantly more interconnected and China plays a much larger role in global manufacturing, trade, tourism and product markets. " However, its experts are still quite optimistic - in their opinion, the world GDP will still increase in the range from 2.4% to 1.5%, depending on the rate and extent of the spread of the disease. Moreover, the OECD tends to believe that the global economy will recover to pre-epidemic levels by 2021. Much gloomier predictions come from, for example, researchers at the National University of Australia (ANU). The local clever people have calculated as many as seven models for the further development of the situation - one "better" than the other. How do you, for example, the option with the reduction of world GDP by 2.4 trillion dollars and the death of 15 million people around the planet? Not really? For your information, this is the best of the Australians' predictions ... By the way, one of the reasons that scientists cite as the main ones among those that allowed the coronavirus to "roam" with might and main and make such a breakthrough of misfortunes is the low response rate of governments and state bodies to news of his appearance. If the closure of borders and the cessation of air traffic began earlier - perhaps the scale - both damage and death - would have been significantly lower. Humanity has relaxed ... But in vain!
What needs to be changed ... But what?
By the way, the voices of those who have finally come to a fairly obvious conclusion have begun to be heard more and more lately recently: in the current catastrophic situation, communist China has proved not only its own economic power, but also the incredible effectiveness of its state and public institutions. Against the background of an ideal order, clear organization, incredible consciousness and discipline of citizens who allowed a huge country struck by a deadly virus not to fall into chaos and anarchy, but rather quickly and effectively organize resistance to disaster, the “advanced democracies” of the Western countries look somehow, softly saying pale. While they are thinking and debating in China, they are acting to save people. Moreover, according to reports, they have already triumphed over the coronavirus! The local Ministry of Health reports with quite legitimate pride: in the disaster that has become the epicenter of the disaster in Hubei, there are no new cases of infections, except for Wuhan itself. In the remaining regions of the Celestial Empire, only 7 new cases of the disease were revealed, of which 6 were imported. Moreover, UBS Global Wealth Management analysts argue that the “black line” is ending for the Chinese economy, without having inflicted the damage that could have been expected in the current emergency. One of the reasons is that up to 60% of the Chinese economy falls on domestic consumption, which is why a temporary drop in exports from the country is far from as painful for its national economy as it might seem at first glance. The country's GDP growth, of course, will decrease, but in no case will it stop and turn into a fall. And this is great luck for the rest of the world.
According to the International Monetary Fund, in 2002, China’s share in the world economy did not reach 8%. Last year, it amounted to more than 19%, showing more than double growth. According to the calculations of specialists of the World Trade Organization, the Celestial Empire from 2005 to 2015 increased its own share of participation in global production and sales chains by 10%, today it is at least 35%. By supplying companies around the world with at least 10% of intermediate goods (components, assemblies, semi-finished products), without which it is impossible to create final products, the Chinese comrades also increased the production of high-tech goods from components obtained from outside. In just 10 months of last year, Chinese airlines transported more than 60 million passengers around the world, demonstrating that this country, unnoticed by everyone else, has become a real “locomotive” of globalization, “tying” to itself both production and trade, as well as transport and logistics streams. The next step in this direction should be the implementation of the megaproject “One belt - one way”, which would mark another victory for Beijing in the struggle for world economic domination. What will be his fate now? Opinions differ. Some analysts are inclined to argue that the COVID-2019 epidemic, even having ended relatively well, will inevitably push the world towards de-globalization, a kind of “fragmentation”, strengthening borders between states and a desire for lesser industrial integration. There is, however, a completely opposite point of view, based on the fact that in the end, after the wave of infection subsides, it will be China that will be in the strongest position. With all the consequences, as they say ...
"One humanity" does not exist. Proven by coronavirus
Today we can say with certainty one thing: a plot in which all of humanity, united and harmoniously united, in a single impulse overcomes the problems of a global scale (rebuffs hordes of alien aliens, saves the Earth from a climatic catastrophe, and so on), while that can be left to the possession of extremely optimistic about science fiction writers and blockbuster screenwriters. As soon as a truly formidable and big trouble comes, the absolute majority of states immediately come to the fore with slogans about the notorious extreme house. "Every man for himself, one God for all!" - something like this in reality looks like the principles by which the absolute majority of not only governments, but also international organizations act in a critical situation. Neither the UN (which once again proves its complete ineffectiveness), nor the elite clubs of "large" states, considered the most developed, wealthy and influential on the planet, could unite all the inhabitants of the Earth in the face of the impending pandemic. The members of all these "sevens" and "twenty" were concerned exclusively with their own survival. Many, moreover, even attended to this issue with a fair delay. The decision of Donald Trump, who tightly "closed" the United States from contact with the rest of the world, caused an outrage in the European Union. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council President Charles Michel even issued an official statement in which they strongly condemned the isolationist behavior of the White House, recalling that the coronavirus is a common problem requiring "not unilateral action, but cooperation."
And you expected something different ?! Well, perhaps thanks to COVID-2019, there will be one less stupid delusion in the world (about "Americans always ready to save Europe"). However, we'll see how the Europeans themselves will behave. How will they, for example, respond to the desperate plea for help from Iran today? The local authorities have already announced that they have officially turned to the leadership of the International Monetary Fund with a request to provide Tehran with assistance in the amount of $ 5 billion, which is necessary to more effectively counter the spread of coronavirus in a country where more than 10 thousand people have already been infected with it. In fact, the IMF announced its readiness to provide funds to the countries most affected by the epidemic, using the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) for this. Let's see what the real answer will be. Be that as it may, today Russia needs, first of all, to continue to maintain the effectiveness of all, even the most stringent, measures necessary to prevent an epidemic in the country. And secondly ... Prepare for life in a slightly different world than the one we knew a year or two earlier. Surely, one should take a closer look at the experience of China and draw from it the most positive moments, those that allowed this country to overcome the extremely difficult trials of the present days. Again, in the future, less and less attention will most likely be paid to various "authoritative" international structures that can only demand and give empty recommendations and not the most reasonable advice. These institutions have proved their "usefulness" in full. In the significantly changed "post-virus" geopolitical reality, where each state will have to defend its own positions in the world in many respects, our country, if it manages to go through the pandemic without losses or with minimal losses, will have very good chances to strengthen its position and defend own interests.