Will Russia have 10 trillion rubles of reserves to survive the oil drop

On the eve of the next "oil war" of Russia began, but not with little Belarus, but with the whole world. Moscow unexpectedly for many refused to extend the OPEC + deal to limit the extraction of raw materials. After that, oil quotes and the exchange rate of the national currencies of oil-producing countries, including Russia itself, instantly collapsed.

Our compatriots, who intended to relax abroad in the upcoming tourist season, are watching with horror the value of the dollar and the euro. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation reassures that the funds of the NWF will be enough for another 10 years for low oil prices. But is this really so, and who will emerge as the real winner from the global "oil war to annihilation"?

Why did Russia actually ruin the OPEC + deal? The answer seems simple and lying on the surface. The representative of the largest domestic raw materials company Mikhail Leontyev explained:

From the point of view of Russia's interests, this deal is simply meaningless. By yielding our own markets, we remove cheap Arab and Russian oil from them in order to clear a place for expensive shale American.

There is a lot of truth in his words. By limiting production and thereby maintaining high oil prices, Russia and Saudi Arabia de facto supported the efficiency of the American shale industry. Everything is clear with the Saudis, they are allies of the USA, but why did Moscow do this for so many years to the detriment of its national interests? And why did Rosneft decide to take such a tough step right now, when the coronavirus pandemic is raging in the world, and the gas projects of Gazprom, the second “after all of Rosneft”, are under increasing pressure? Recall that gas prices are tied to oil quotes.

There is no doubt that we must fight for our place in the market. The question is how well time and money are chosen, as well as what price you will have to pay for the result, and from whose pocket.

A number of industry experts doubt that with its demarche, Rosneft will actually be able to bring American shale oil to its knees. All oil projects in the USA are insured (hedged), large players have come into this business, who are capable of incurring losses for a long time. Even if one of them burns out, the American bankruptcy law is such that they can reorganize and get back into business without the baggage of their previous debts. Forbes Edition warnsthat Moscow should prepare for a long and painful process of confrontation.

Due to withdrawal from the deal, Russia will lose 100-150 million dollars daily. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation is counting on funds from the NWF. According to officials, this money will last for 10 years with quotes at the level of 25-30 dollars per barrel. At the beginning of March 2020, it kept 10,1 trillion rubles, or about $ 150,1 billion. If the accumulated part is not enough, the fund will be replenished by selling foreign currency on foreign markets. It sounds optimistic, but practice shows that soon our oligarchs will come to the government with outstretched hands, who will have to help save the privatized enterprises that suffered from the systemic crisis for pennies.

So there are some doubts that the NWF will be enough for all the declared 10 years. In addition, dissatisfaction with the actions of Moscow has already been expressed in Tehran. Iran is already barely kept afloat due to US sanctions, the proxy war in Syria and the outbreak of the coronavirus. Following Tehran, claims can be more delicately expressed in Caracas. That is, there will soon be relatively benevolent states against our country.

So why did Rosneft suddenly start chopping off its shoulder, getting involved in a war it could not defeat?

It is worth recalling that this oil company owes China a tidy sum of $ 45 billion. Of these, 15 billion are debts to China Development Bank, the remaining 30 billion are obligations to supply oil for the money already received. Beijing owes so much to manage. Today, it is China, which is suffering from a decline in industrial production amid the epidemic of coronavirus, most of all that needs cheap hydrocarbon fuel for subsequent recovery.

So think for yourself.
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 10 March 2020 10: 56
    The state should help the Russian oligarchs in exchange for the shares of their enterprises. It's time to start developing our own industry, both heavy and medium, and light. It’s a shame to import for currency what Russia itself can produce.
    And maybe now they will stop investing the state’s revenue in the USA, and will direct it to their own development?
    1. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 15 March 2020 09: 30
      That's for sure. Knives, forks. It is only necessary to import what we cannot do without.
  2. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 10 March 2020 11: 19
    Will Russia have 10 trillion rubles of reserves to survive the oil drop

    - The United States will have enough of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which it owns ... to survive the fall of oil ...
    - And China belongs to all of Russia ... - and that is enough for him to survive any crisis and any epidemic ...

    - And Russia will only have to hope that it will "remain" for its "own needs" after the United States and China ...
    - And the second "hope" of Russia ... is its own Russian taxpayer; he is also a depositor of his miserable savings in Russian banks ... - and these deposits will also be used and sacrificed to save our stunted economy ... - Not the first time ...
  3. Mihail55 Offline Mihail55
    Mihail55 (Michael) 10 March 2020 11: 42
    The Chernomyrdin "... wanted the best ..."
  4. Igor Pavlovich Offline Igor Pavlovich
    Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 10 March 2020 11: 46
    ... At the beginning of March 2020, it stores 10,1 trillion rubles, or about $ 150,1 billion ....

    - Mr. Marzhetsky, you counted it at the old rate of ~ 67 r / $. Over the past weekend alone, Russia lost, thanks to the "wise leadership" of Putin and Co., more than $ 10 billion. And then, as in the song by Pugacheva - or else there will be, oh-oh-oh! And this is precisely thanks to Putin - on March 1 he directly gathered the leadership of the oil industry, together with the Minister of Fuel and Energy Novak, at the Vnukovo-2 airport. And there he announced his withdrawal from the OPEC + agreement. The usual format of the event was confirmed as well: Putin speaks, the others listen. That is, the decision has already been made and simply communicated to the top management of the industry. And now all the "hurray-patriotic" media are broadcasting that this step was taken in order to punish American oil producers and to make them go bankrupt from low prices ...
  5. Nick Offline Nick
    Nick (Nikolai) 10 March 2020 22: 23
    Even if the price of a barrel remains at the current level of $ 35, then in order to balance the budget, it will be necessary to annually take about 1 trillion rubles from the accumulation funds. Therefore, these 10 trillion savings are really enough for 10 years of normal life.
    In addition, a correction in the depreciation of the ruble by about 9-10% will act as an incentive for our exports, as well as stimulate import substitution, due to the increase in the cost of imported goods in ruble terms. as a result, manufacturing sectors of the economy will receive a significant incentive to development.
    Among other things, the dependence of the budget on oil and gas revenues will fall. Now the budget depends on oil and gas by 39-40%, and at current energy prices it can fall to 30%.
    In general, the drop in oil prices has obvious advantages for the Russian economy, some of which I have listed.
  6. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 11 March 2020 19: 04
    On the one hand, the strategy is right. On the other hand, it is necessary to reduce the dependence of the ruble on oil and gas. We get most of the budget from imports. It cannot go on endlessly. Not because I don't want to. Too many obstacles are being raised against us. And there will probably be even more.