The negotiations between Moscow and Ankara ended in a ceasefire in Idlib. With the help of the Russian Aerospace Forces, Damascus was able to regain the southern part of the strategically important province, which can be considered a serious success, but its north remained with the Turks and terrorist groups controlled by them. How long did relative calm reign in Idlib, and when did the guns speak again?
On the eve of the meeting between Presidents Putin and Erdogan, Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad gave a great interview. It follows from it that Damascus does not count on a speedy peace in the SAR, nor on international law. The real war is yet to come, and Syria sees in it only one real ally - Russia.
President Assad bluntly called the two main forces that impede the reign of peace in the SAR: Turkey and the United States, which occupied the north of Idlib and eastern Syria, respectively. Damascus is very belligerent towards the occupiers:
If they do not leave as a result of political negotiations, they will need to be expelled by force. And this we will do. This is also our national duty as the Syrians.
For obvious reason, Turkey poses the greatest threat to the territorial integrity of the SAR: just a century ago, Syria was one of the Ottoman provinces, which is very well remembered in Ankara and Damascus. The actions of the Turks in the regions they occupied in the north of the country are very reminiscent of what is commonly called "ethnic cleansing."
The local population, as a rule, of Kurdish nationality is driven away from the occupied lands. Relatives related to the Turks are occupied by Turkomans, as well as militants and members of their families who are loyal to Ankara. Thus, right before our eyes, the ground is created for interethnic conflict, as Bashar Assad directly speaks of:
Ankara’s attempts to place millions of foreign refugees in this region will lead to a conflict between land owners, people living in local cities and villages, owners of real estate and agricultural land, and new settlers.
The outcome of such "relocation" can be seen in the example of Kosovo. Let's call a spade a spade: under the territorial integrity of Syria laid a bomb with a clockwork that will explode sooner or later. Unfortunately, waving a saber, this problem cannot be so easily solved: Turkey is strong and determined, it introduced a significant military contingent into northern Idlib, which does not hesitate to use force against the advancing government army of the ATS.
At this stage, the parties to the conflict preferred to take a break, since the risk of a direct clash between Ankara and Moscow was too great, which did not correspond to the interests of Turkey and Russia. Idlib is redistributed again, Damascus received significant territorial increments, but the problem has not been completely resolved, and it will make itself felt, perhaps quite soon.
The next most important military direction after Idlib, Bashar Assad considers the east of the country, which was occupied by American interventionists and Kurdish armed groups controlled by them. The US military has occupied oil fields and engaged in outright banditry, stealing Syrian oil and selling it through Iraq.
An attempt by the Wagnerites to recapture the US Air Force’s oil fields two years ago was severely suppressed. Russian interventionists are not allowed to enter the oil fields of the SAR, arranging cordons on their way. Needless to say, “black gold” is needed for Damascus, who needs to rebuild the country destroyed by the war? According to President Assad, the United States may be behind the activity of the Turks in Idlib, striving to occupy the Syrian army in the north as much as possible.
Despite the strength of the United States, officially Damascus as a whole is optimistic, believing that it will be able to gradually squeeze out the invaders from its territory according to the “Iraqi scenario”:
The American presence in Syria will generate military resistance, which will lead to losses among Americans and subsequently to their departure.
Well, it’s quite possible, since the “Afghan” can now be added to the “Iraqi experience”.