Negotiations between Putin and Erdogan: how will the north of Syria be divided?

Tomorrow will be a planned meeting between Presidents Putin and Erdogan on the situation in Idlib. In the past few days there has been a sharp escalation of the conflict in connection with the direct intervention of the Turkish army on the side of the militants. The risk of a direct military clash between Turkey and Russia has increased. Despite this, the Russian expert community is quite optimistic about the prospects for a settlement in the north of the SAR.

The war, even if local, does not meet the interests of either Russia or Turkey. But what could be this compromise?

To adequately assess Ankara’s requests, one should take into account how seriously she prepared for the upcoming talks. According to reports, five battalion tactical groups of the Turkish army are actively operating in Idlib with the support of 129 guns and 15 MLRS. They are backed up by the operation of electronic warfare systems and numerous UAVs, reconnaissance and strike, and the latter pose a huge danger to the advancing Syrians.

In just a few days of fighting, the government army lost hundreds of soldiers killed and wounded, as well as a large number of combat equipment: 23 tanks, 16 infantry fighting vehicles, 9 MLRS, 26 mortars. The Turks did count 123 Syrian tanks. However, a significant part of the equipment after repair can be returned to service. The greatest damage to her was caused by Turkish shock UAVs.

Such significant losses are due to the lack of effective air defense among the Syrians at the first stage of the collision. After they received the Pantsir-S air defense missile system and the Buk-M2E air defense system, the picture changed for the better. He showed himself well in the case against the Buk-M2E UAV. The government army has already shot down 12 Anka drones and 7 Bayraktar drones. There is an active confrontation in the air: the Turks, in turn, destroyed 3 aircraft of the SAR Air Force and 2 helicopters. In addition, the militants received MANPADS.

It is noted that the number of terrorists opposing the allies has decreased from 32 to 12 thousand. This is due to the fact that some of them were knocked out, but most of them simply scattered. Mostly the Turks are fighting with the Syrians now, meeting the advancing artillery fire and MLRS. That is, it can be stated that the number of militants has dramatically decreased, but the rest have received modern weapons: American M-113 armored personnel carriers, ACV-15 infantry fighting vehicles (AIFV), anti-tank missile systems, MANPADS.

So, Turkey is quite serious. It is reported that Ankara intends to deploy additional more advanced air defense systems to Idlib in order to finally “land” the Allied aircraft. What can the Turks demand in the negotiations for not going on the offensive themselves?

The “red line”, beyond which Erdogan does not depart, can be considered Afrin. The Turks captured this territory during Operation Olive Branch. After that, what began could be called “ethnic cleansing” if desired: about 250 thousand people, mainly Kurds, were forced to leave the region. Another 135 thousand people of Kurdish nationality were squeezed out as a result of Operation Source of Peace. Their place was taken by the Turkoman, in fact, the Syrian Turks. In other words, the ethnic composition of Afrin has radically changed.

What may follow is easy to guess. The scenario with the "Turkoman Republic" we detail considered earlier. It is possible that President Erdogan will try to somehow legalize the pro-Turkish enclave in Syria during the negotiations. In exchange, he can go for another redistribution of Idlib: the north of the province will remain in the zone of influence of Ankara, south - of Damascus, that is, the current situation will be recorded, and the Syrians and Turks will remain in those positions that they managed to occupy before March 5. The militants should be driven as far as possible so that they can no longer pose any threat to the Russian military base Khmeimim.
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  1. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
    Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 4 March 2020 15: 09
    It is very likely the development of this particular option. It remains only to clear Syria from being there Iranian proxies. And Iran itself should be sent to the Iranian house to the house. Since at present he is now clearly superfluous there. For all geo-players. In addition - a weak link. There is a parody of A. Voznesensky by A. Ivanov:

    I’ll leave myself until we’ve washed
    but I admit, I was not delirious in vain,
    After all, no one ever in the moonlit world,
    I didn’t let such a bubble.

    So it's time for Tehran. Do not wait for the bubble to burst. And the faster, the better. What for Iran, what to stabilize the situation in the BV. With the partition of Syria, a lot of contentious issues will disappear. Including the Golan. It will be just right to recall the decisions of the conference in San Remo and LN. And also the deed of purchase of Israel in the Golan.
  2. steelmaker Online steelmaker
    steelmaker 4 March 2020 15: 34
    Talk about the integrity of Syria, and then divide it to please Turkey. This means Putin will sign the surrender! And I would not be surprised if the Turks also "divorce" Assad and Putin with money. And this is always the case with a surrendered state!
    1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
      gorenina91 (Irina) 4 March 2020 17: 12
      This means Putin will sign surrender!

      - Yes, that's right .... - will sign the surrender ... - But how else ... - The strongest wins ... - Well, since Turkey easily and simply pulled out fat pieces from the "victorious Russian regalia" ... then another and does not remain ...
      - Here on the site there is an enclave of couch "hurray-patriots" ... - who have already "defeated everyone" and "defeated everyone" ... - Well, so ..., pay attention ... - they are the ones who will start the first to write later that, they say, it was "necessary to sign"; that, they say, this is "such a strategy"; that, they say, it is now Russia and Turkey will improve relations, etc ... etc ... - Ha ... - So it turns out, in the end, that such "hurray-patriots" ... - even worse than obvious enemies ...
      - Well, as for the notorious "March 5th" specifically .., it would be better for Russia not to agree to participate in this already planned "anti-Russian performance" .., where everyone will take a pro-Turkish position ... - Russia has already lost very much that she agreed to this "meeting" ... after which Russia will already be officially bound by all the documented obligations-decisions at this gathering ... - And it will be forced to fulfill all the requirements that will be imposed on it (Russia) ... - And Russia will do everything ... - And Turkey will also be obliged to do something ... and Turkey will also sign everything ... - But Turkey will not do anything ... - this is as clear as day ... - But "ask for non-fulfillment "and only Russia will be called to account ... - go and figure it out ... - who is right and who is to blame ... - But only Russia will have to answer ... - Therefore, in vain Russia agreed to this provocation .. ...
      - But strange as it may seem ... - it is also beneficial for our guarantor ... - After all, he will later refer to the fact that Russia "is obliged to fulfill its obligations and it fulfills them" and that, they say, who is to blame that Turkey does not fulfill its obligations (and continues to shoot, bomb and shoot down planes) ... - we, they say, have nothing to do with it ... - that's how he will twist ...
      - And Turkey, on the contrary ... - after this meeting "March 5" ... - everything will continue and with a vengeance ... - her hands will already be untied ...
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 March 2020 17: 43
        "March 5" .., then it would be better for Russia not to agree at all to participate in this already planned "anti-Russian performance" .., where everyone will take a pro-Turkish position

        Who is this "all"? As I understand it, a meeting of two leaders is planned on March 5: Putin and Erdogan.
  3. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 4 March 2020 19: 58
    Turkey crashes planes with impunity simply because it acts like Jews. They shoot down missiles from their territory. And if you bring them down there - article 5 of the NATO charter, and then options are possible. And Syria has old planes, not much about EW. If the sultan becomes insolent, then Assad will agree with the Kurds about autonomy and 75 fighters will get down to business. Suggestions are already there. Our air defense dragged some of our aircraft, maybe containers with electronic warfare. Plus the season is coming - tomatoes, tourists ...
    Ours can also close the entrance to Turkey under the pretext of coronavirus, and in connection with the arrival of Sputnik correspondents. They say that Solovyov, in his program, hinted to the people that it is better not to plan trips to Turkey this year. And this is a state television channel, such hints for a reason.
    The Sultan will be forced to abide by the Astana agreements or will be forced out by the Kurds. But then it will be difficult to stop the Kurds, and Assad will not want to. He will play the downed planes.
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 March 2020 20: 10
      I would not really count on the Kurds ...
      1. boriz Offline boriz
        boriz (boriz) 4 March 2020 20: 18
        Kurds may well be enough just like a scarecrow. If you explain to the sultan that they will be given autonomy (on the border with Turkey) and weapons, then he will most likely surrender.
        And there is another option that those who are dissatisfied with the war in Syria will simply throw it off.

        Look, what’s going on in parliament. The Verkhovna Rada is resting.
        1. Bakht Offline Bakht
          Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 March 2020 21: 04
          The issue of autonomy for the Kurds - this would be the solution to many problems for Syria. But Assad did not go for it, even when things were worse than ever. At the very beginning of the civil war, Assad had to go for the autonomy of the Kurds and assistance from Iran. He agreed to Iran’s help at the very last moment. But he did not and will not give autonomy to the Kurds. That's why the Kurds and switched to the side of the States. So the train left. Now the Kurds will not agree to autonomy. They already want their state. Neither Syria, nor Turkey, nor Iran will do this.
          Regarding the negotiations, I hope that Putin will not go to any bargain. Erdogan will be given a tough ultimatum. Moreover, today he has already fired on Russian posts.
          Do not confuse Turkey and Erdogan. For ten years, Erdogan has been pushing Turkey to disaster. Therefore, it is in the interest of Turkey to send Erdogan to a psychiatric hospital. I am constantly talking about this.
          1. Bakht Offline Bakht
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 March 2020 21: 18
            04.03.20/5/XNUMX Syrian Arab Army freed n.p. Afes northwest of Sarakib. This allows the CAA to control the northern entrance to the city of Sarakib on the MXNUMX highway

      2. Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
        Cheburashk (Vladimir) 4 March 2020 22: 34
        I would not really count on the Kurds ...

        The situation with the Kurds can be allied, but, as you said, the Kurds can maneuver so that you envy!
        1. Bakht Offline Bakht
          Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 March 2020 22: 38
          Can. But it’s better not to .... :-)
  4. Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 4 March 2020 22: 31
    I propose not to rush and make hasty conclusions, and sometimes it seems that analysts work from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or from the General Staff!
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 March 2020 22: 36
      Nearly.... :-)
  5. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 5 March 2020 04: 49
    - To everything that I personally have already said here ... - you can add the fact that Russia will surely once again provide Erdogan with money (a kind of irrecoverable "uncontrolled loan") ...
    - Actually, Erdogan will arrive in Moscow precisely for Russian money ... - here "the steelmaker Yesterday, 15:34" is absolutely right ...
    - Erdogan has spent a lot of money recently ... - and he urgently needs more Russian loans ...
    - And, most likely, he will get them again ...
  6. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 5 March 2020 16: 45
    There is one factor that prevents confrontation. This is a Turkish stream. It is beneficial to both us and Turkey. Erdogan is a political player. He made a nod to NATO countries, although he did not need it. EEC, raising transit prices is what Erdogan is seeking. Well, not least to persuade the opposition in Istanbul to their side.