Oil War: Russia will soon lose half of the Belarusian market

March 4 2020 24

Minsk is starting to turn more and more actively to the West. Instead of the allies in the EAEU of Russia and Kazakhstan, Belarus now focuses on Europe, the United States and Ukraine with Azerbaijan. The "oil issue" ruined everything.

Considering that the Kremlin is using the valve on the pipeline as an instrument of political pressure, President Lukashenko set a strategic goal to diversify the supply of “black gold” so as not to depend on Russia anymore. What will come of Alexander Grigoryevich?

Russia should supply 24 million tons of oil a year to Belarus, but actually Minsk chooses only 18. Some of the raw materials are used for domestic needs, the rest is processed at oil refineries and exported to Europe. Due to disagreement with the terms of the Moscow tax maneuver in the Russian oil industry, President Lukashenko is demanding compensation for his losses. The Kremlin agreed to partially do this, but so far, large domestic oil companies, with rare exceptions, have not delivered their products to Belarus.

According to the latest data, Belarusian exports to the European Union in January fell by half compared to last year. Minsk, which has contracts for the supply of oil and oil products, is frantically looking for other suppliers. As an alternative to Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, the USA, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were called. It is very curious to see how Minsk’s relations with these countries are developing.

East

The position of the Russian leadership is clear: Moscow expects Minsk to fulfill the agreements on economic integration within the Union State. Until this is done, Belarus should not count on “allied discounts”. President Lukashenko cannot completely refuse deliveries from Russia, but he is ready to radically reduce the degree of dependence. Alexander Grigoryevich called different numbers: then 30-40% of the total, then 40-50%, which is closer to reality.

Not very well with Belarus and with its partner in the EAEU, Kazakhstan. For some reason, our mutual friends from Nur-Sultan are not eager to supply oil to Minsk at a discount. The Kazakh authorities agree to sell raw materials to Belarusians, but only with an export duty, since they rightly fear "the flow of their oil into the European Union." Kazakhstan is ready for deliveries to Belarus only if there are some guarantees that there will be no subsequent re-export.

West

Western countries, on the contrary, are interested in selling their raw materials to Minsk, since there are no discounts at all. So, a trial batch of Norwegian oil has already been purchased and goes to Belarus through Lithuania.

Poland is currently looking for technical opportunities to reconfigure part of the Druzhba pipeline in order to start reverse supplies of American oil through its port of Gdansk. In Warsaw, they said:

We in Poland are interested in helping Belarus with oil supplies, if necessary, if possible.

In addition, oil from the United States is looking for additional ways to Belarus. As you know, Minsk is forced to transport raw materials by rail through Lithuania, which seriously makes it more expensive. But now everything can change, as the Belarusian authorities intend to build an additional jumper to the pipeline in the direction of the Baltic. President Lukashenko is threatening to do so at an accelerated pace and is counting on US financial assistance, which is ready to allocate $ 1 billion for infrastructure projects:

Somewhere we need a couple of jumpers, which the government expects to build as much as three years. It will not be this. One and a half to two years, no more! And we ourselves will find $ 100-120 million for these jumpers.

It is worth adding that somewhere around 1 million tons of oil per year will soon go through Ukraine from Azerbaijan via the Odessa-Brody pipeline. In general, in the next couple of years, the picture may change radically, and not in favor of Russia, which will lose at least half of the Belarusian oil market. Accordingly, the influence on Minsk from Europe and the USA, which are so worried about the sovereignty of Belarus, will sharply increase.

It turns out that the West is closer to President Lukashenko in every sense than the East.

Information

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steelmaker

0

4 March 2020 11: 46

The article is correct. They won’t say this on TV, and they certainly won’t discuss it on any talk shows. They also said about Ukraine that it will not go anywhere; Turkey was recorded as a friend. In general, everything according to Chernomyrdin - they wanted the best, it turned out as always.
1. Sergey Cactus
  
  +1
  
  5 March 2020 03: 23
  
  What is Belarus? I'm laughing at you!
  1. Sergey Antonov
    
    -1
    
    5 March 2020 19: 34
    
    Belarus is where the last people friendly to Russia were. But, having shut off oil supplies, due to the rejection of the union state, they seem to have lost them too ...
123

-1

4 March 2020 12: 27

It is worth adding that somewhere around 1 million tons of oil per year will soon go through Ukraine from Azerbaijan via the Odessa-Brody pipeline. In general, in the next couple of years, the picture may change radically, and not in favor of Russia, which will lose at least half of the Belarusian oil market.

It is also worth noting that the life of Belarusians can also dramatically change in the next couple of years. Lukashenko has long expressed his opinion on priorities, the welfare of citizens for him, it turns out, is not the main thing. This is in the form of greetings, broadcasting about our thieves and bourgeoisie, who think only of themselves and a "caring leader" who does everything exclusively for the good of people.

Accordingly, the influence on Minsk from Europe and the USA, which are so worried about the sovereignty of Belarus, will sharply increase.

I would not exaggerate the degree of such an influence, as practice has shown, it is imaginary and quickly disappears. Another thing is that Western partners are more pragmatic and will find other ways to hook an obstinate client on a cook.

It turns out that the West is closer to President Lukashenko in every sense than the East.

His shirt is closer to the body. That is his whole ideology. The crown has grown.
Sergey Latyshev

+2

4 March 2020 12: 46

Wah. It used to be praised. And now he began to bargain with the Kremlin - and is no longer good.

And they will agree - and again it will be just wonderful.
T. Hanks

+1

4 March 2020 14: 06

Balabalism is everything. Prices where in the article are indicated? The farther, the worse. The author is required: how much Russia sells, how many Kazakhs, how much the entire civilized world. Kohl does not know, there is nothing to scum paper in vain.
1. 123
  
  +1
  
  4 March 2020 18: 23
  
  Balabalism is everything. Prices where in the article are indicated? The farther, the worse. The author is required: how much Russia sells, how many Kazakhs, how much the entire civilized world. Kohl does not know, there is nothing to scum paper in vain.
  
  It just won’t succeed, the prices aren’t voiced, they say it’s a trade secret.
kriten

+4

4 March 2020 15: 04

Do not Cry. God be with him, with the oil market of Belarus. Not the essence of it. This is a consequence. They cannot live on their own - Luke's successes are all half-lip. Take away the feeding - that's all. But the West today will not feed it at all, it is not up to it.
feudor

+1

4 March 2020 16: 02

The market of Belarus is also small. Maximum 8 million tons.
Cheburashk

+2

4 March 2020 16: 28

For politicians, all these venues will be beneficial, but not for a simple resident of Belarus. Europe and the West will support only their interests and no more!
Wanderer039

+3

4 March 2020 21: 12

If the Republic of Belarus loses a sales market in the Russian Federation, hunger will begin there, and all plants will be closed, since goods from the Republic of Belarus are not needed in the EU, where their enterprises are fighting each other for quotas and parts of sales markets. You have to think about it, gentlemen, self-proprietors, and not scare the Russian Federation ...
Caretaker

-2

4 March 2020 21: 56

The position of the Russian leadership is clear: Moscow expects Minsk to fulfill the agreements on economic integration within the Union State ...

They said the same thing about gas when they traded.
And Bulgaria gave a 40% discount without any integration,
$ 127 - for Belarus,
$ 125 - for Bulgaria

https://vz.ru/economy/2020/3/4/1026928.html?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop&utm_

Let them try to demand from Bulgaria degree of integration as with RB at present.
- let Bulgaria leave NATO, expel all structures hostile to the Russian Federation,
- integrates the armed forces with the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation (combined air defense, information exchange, exercises, military-technical cooperation, i.e. no less than what was in the ATS),
- abolish border control, visas, etc.,
- will enter the EAEU, the customs union,
- recognizes Russian as the second state language, etc.
Weak to set such conditions for Bulgaria for gas discounts?
Caretaker

+3

4 March 2020 22: 03

... As you know, Minsk forced to transport raw materials by rail through Lithuania, which seriously increases its cost.

Correctly noted! The key word is "forced".
This is understandable for "foreign" oil, but why is Belarus forced to distill Russian oil, which traders bought, through the Baltic states? Why is it impossible to pump Russian oil through Russian pipes, since it was bought from Russian companies?
Radical

+1

4 March 2020 23: 21

Why did you cite this episode from the movie "Eternal Call" as an example? In the sense that you share the philosophy of the hero Basilashvili - Colonel Abver Lakhnovsky?
1. 123
  
  +1
  
  5 March 2020 18: 18
  
  Why did you cite this episode from the movie "Eternal Call" as an example? winked In the sense that you share the philosophy of Basilashvili's hero - Colonel Abwehr Lakhnovsky? sad
  
  Well, what are you, I just wanted to make you feel good, I thought you hadn't watched a movie for a long time. Often the appearance is deceiving and the content does not match it. It's me that the picture on the avatar does not make you as insightful.
bonifacius

+2

4 March 2020 23: 43

If anyone is on the "oil needle", it is Belarus, not any Russia. Without Russian oil at a "free price", Batka's economy will shrink like shagreen leather.
Pound

+2

5 March 2020 05: 09

No matter how Belarusians lose the Russian market, this will be an ass, and Luke Tryndets.
gore

0

5 March 2020 06: 29

What a grief! Half the market! No, not so .... HALF OF THE BELARUSIAN MARKET !!!
Chef, the mustache is gone!
Luka should hint at a reduction in exports to Russia in all items by 10-15%, and this is where the "oil war" will end right away ...
Marzhecki

-1

5 March 2020 07: 10

Quote: Caretaker
Let them try to demand from Bulgaria the degree of integration with Belarus at the present time.

Did Bulgaria sign an agreement to create a Union State with Russia?
Belarus then no one forced to do it
1. Caretaker
  
  -2
  
  5 March 2020 20: 42
  
  Quote: Marzhetsky
  Did Bulgaria sign an agreement to create a Union State with Russia?
  Belarus, no one forced to do it.
  
  So, after all, no one forced Russia to sign an agreement on the Union State.
  To date, they have integrated exactly as much as it was beneficial to both states. Several roadmaps for further integration have recently been agreed. Approximately 8 "cards" have not yet been agreed upon.
  Gas is sold to Bulgaria at the same price as Belarus, only because Bulgaria has diversified its gas supplies, while Belarus has no choice yet? Is this the behavior of an ally or partner?
master3

+1

5 March 2020 18: 08

The Kremlin uses an oil pipeline valve as an instrument of political pressure

- Well, where is it not true? Read on:

Moscow expects Minsk to fulfill the agreements on economic integration within the Union State.
Caretaker

0

5 March 2020 20: 52

It is noteworthy that none of the participants in the discussion of this topic began to condemn, and even more so - condemn Bulgaria in the next topic about a 40% discount. It seems that the prices are the same, but the degree of disturbance of the participants varies?
Probably Bulgaria (a member of NATO) is closer and dearer to them?
Fanning the conflict with Belarus is beneficial only for pro-Western oriented participants.
Anchonsha

+1

6 March 2020 00: 23

Yes, politics is such a delicate thing not only in the East, but also in Belarus. And to us, Russia, what of this? First of all, the mask fell off Lukash's face along with his "union" state. As such, he never needed a union state, but he dreamed of milking Russia longer. So, STALEVAR, Russia has lost Belarus in one way or another, but now it won't milk us so boorishly and cynically. And the fact that the United States can enter our traitorous neighbor and there is nothing to be done. But will it become easier for Belarusians to live without Russia, without our market, etc.? The Belarusians face the same thing that happened with Ukraine. The West does not need the Belarusians, but their territory is so necessary, incl. and forests. Let the Belarusians now eat what they themselves have chosen.
1. Caretaker
  
  0
  
  6 March 2020 20: 20
  
  Quote: Anchonsha
  ...but milk Russia he dreamed longer
  
  Similar terms in relation to Russia are used in Georgia and Ukraine.
  A similar interpretation of events and definitions is not applicable to Russia.
  
  Quote: Anchonsha
  ... But at least now it will not be milk us so rude and cynical ...
  
  In relation to yourself personally, you have the right to choose any definitions that are not prohibited on the site, but with respect to citizens of the Russian Federation and the state as such, the definitions you have chosen are unacceptable.
  
  Quote: Anchonsha
  Russia, even so, though otherwise, Belarus lost
  
  Do not wait. The union state will remain in one form or another, despite the efforts of pro-Western agitators to destroy the union of fraternal peoples.