Will Russia save the accumulated reserves from the consequences of the coronavirus?


The day before, President Putin held a meeting with representatives of the Russian oil and gas sector, at which they discussed the impact of the Chinese coronavirus on oil prices. As it turned out, the authorities are awake and counting on the means of the NWF to extend the period of economic recession. But will it work out?


As we have told earlier, Russia today suffers not so much from the coronavirus COVID-19 as from its consequences. Until the infection has yet reached our country, the epidemiological situation is being controlled. However, Russia can play a cruel joke that it is included in the global the economy as a “raw materials appendage”, if you call a spade a spade. The problems of the main foreign consumers of domestic hydrocarbons, metals and forests are already starting to come around to us.

It is no secret that one of the most important sources of replenishment of the federal budget of the Russian Federation is the export of oil and gas. As for black gold, ”its quotes collapsed, recalling the crisis of 2008. If 2020 began at a price of $ 70 per barrel, now it is already worth $ 50. Representatives of the industry and authorities consider this level “acceptable”. The question is, will such a price persist for a long time, and will it not fall even lower?

As already mentioned, the coronavirus epidemic turned out to be dangerous not only for people (although thousands of infected people have already died from it), but for the world economy. The disease simultaneously showed the vulnerability of the globalist project, when all countries depend on each other.
So, COVID-19 primarily hit the leading "Asian tigers" - China and South Korea. The severe quarantine measures undertaken by Beijing have not yet been able to take control of the situation: the disease escaped beyond the Asia-Pacific region and is already developing in Europe.

For the Middle Kingdom, only two months of the epidemic were a terrible blow. If in January the index of business activity (PMI) was 50 points, then by February 29 it fell to 35,7, according to the State Statistical Office of China. The sub-price index for raw materials fell by 13,2 pp, and the number of new orders fell by 22,1 pp. For the “world workshop”, which is the driver of the global economy and the main consumer of raw materials, this is very, very serious. There is no guarantee that everything will end soon.

However, within the framework of the globalist project, the problems of China immediately echoed in the main economy of the Old World, Germany. The DIW Institute for Economic Research warns that German industrial growth could slow down soon due to problems with Chinese consumers and suppliers. On the one hand, China is one of the most important markets for German cars. Due to the decline in industrial production in China, a drop in demand for German automotive products is expected. On the other hand, German manufacturers themselves are seriously dependent on the supply of components from China. Here is what Forbes writes about this:

In the supply of automotive parts, virtually all car manufacturers (in the world) are heavily dependent on transnational supply chains. If one link drops out of the chain or slows down, it is very likely that the same will happen to everything else.

As you can see, one pulls the other. Following the stagnation in Germany, problems will begin throughout the rest of the European Union. The coronavirus epidemic may well lead to a global economic crisis. Needless to say, this will have an extremely negative impact on Russia, which depends on the sale of its raw materials to China and the EU?

The NWF is, of course, good, but how long will it last, given that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has already launched its hands into it, selling Sberbank to the Russian government, about which we told earlier?
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  1. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 2 March 2020 12: 50
    -1
    What is the article about? About coronavirus, its negative impact on the economy, and also will there be enough reserves to level it? Did I understand correctly?

    However, Russia can play a cruel joke that it is included in the global world economy as a “raw materials appendage”, if you call a spade a spade. The problems of the main foreign consumers of domestic hydrocarbons, metals and forests are already starting to come around to us.

    Here, it turns out, what is the matter, "a raw material appendage". recourse Let us, for example, replace Russia in the proposal with Japan, which has not been noticed in the unrestrained export of raw materials, replace export goods, and remove that very "appendage". It turns out:

    However with Japan can play a cruel joke that it is included in the global global economy as “high tech center"If you call a spade a spade. Problems with the main foreign consumers vehicles, machinery and equipment already starting to sniff at them.

    It turns out that the problems are the same as their causes, a global decline in demand and a slowdown in economic growth. By the way, as you pointed out, Germany has the same problems. It turns out that the "raw material appendage" has nothing to do with this issue. request Then what was it? Misunderstanding the essence of the issue? Are you unable to compare the situation in Russia and Germany and draw elementary conclusions about the causes of the problems? request This seems to be just an involuntary reaction. yes what In the course of movement, tar drips from the tank? lol

    It is no secret that one of the most important sources of replenishing the federal budget of the Russian Federation is the export of oil and gas. As for "black gold", its quotes collapsed, recalling the crisis of 2008. Whereas 2020 started at $ 70 a barrel, now it costs $ 50. This level is considered "acceptable" by industry and government officials. The question is, will this price last for a long time, and will it fall even lower?

    Firstly, even if the oil price drops to $ 40 on the budget, this will not affect in any way, because there is

    The National Welfare Fund of Russia, which since 2017 all budget revenues from oil have gone for more than $ 40 per barrel

    https://www.finanz.ru/novosti/valyuty/rossiyskuyu-ekonomiku-ostavyat-bez-deneg-fnb-1028077421
    In addition, the share of oil and gas revenues in the budget, although slowly, is declining. Secondly, a price below $ 40 is hardly acceptable for other exporters, therefore, production will decrease, their budgets depend on oil no less than ours. This is elementary, the economy is slowing down, demand is declining, followed by lower production.

    As you can see, one pulls the other. Following the stagnation in Germany, problems will begin throughout the rest of the European Union. The coronavirus epidemic may well lead to a global economic crisis. Needless to say, this will have an extremely negative impact on Russia, which depends on the sale of its raw materials to China and the EU?

    The problems will begin not only in the EU, this applies to the whole planet, the globalization of the economy, you know ... At this point, a person with the remnants of common sense could think about what chances Russia has for a less painful experience of the impending crisis, and what this could lead to ... Compare the level of external debt, debt, the availability of reserve funds from other countries. If you delve into this question a little, it turns out that it is too early to sprinkle your head with ash.

    NWF is, of course, good, but how long will it last, given that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has already launched its hands into it, selling Sberbank to the Russian government

    Frank stupidity, the fund was created just for such a case, and funds accumulated over 7% of GDP go to the purchase of Sberbank.

  2. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 2 March 2020 12: 56
    -1
    Quote: 123
    NWF is, of course, good, but how long will it last, given that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has already launched its hands into it, selling Sberbank to the Russian government

    Frank stupidity, the fund was created just for such a case, and funds accumulated over 7% of GDP go to the purchase of Sberbank.

    To buy Sber will go as much money as it goes.
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 2 March 2020 14: 28
      -1
      Here is the information about the purchase of Sberbank:

      https://www.rbc.ru/economics/18/02/2020/5e4ab8c29a794742853c1d74

      By this link, the availability of funds in the NWF:

      https://www.minfin.ru/ru/perfomance/nationalwealthfund/statistics/?id_65=27068-obem_fonda_natsionalnogo_blagosostoyaniya

      It is simply impossible to spend money from the fund by law, only after reaching 7% of GDP. The deal was drawn up so that it is possible to purchase Sberbank. Naturally, it’s not so much more, but after the purchase a little more remains.
      I hope you’ll figure out the third link yourself.

      hi https://calculator888.ru/
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  4. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 2 March 2020 12: 58
    +2
    Will Russia save the accumulated reserves from the consequences of the coronavirus?

    - No, they won’t save ... - Yes, Russia doesn’t think about its salvation at all ... - As for COVID-19 .., it’s sure that they are still diligently silent about its penetration into Russia ... - everywhere it already takes place to be ... - penetrated everywhere ...- But to Russia, where the Chinese are just a huge amount ...- and suddenly this COVID-19 ...- yet, supposedly ...- did not penetrate ... - Then how it will open ... - Well, as they say, ... - arrived ...
    - Then Russia (as always) will announce ... - "Get up, the country is huge" ... - "All to fight the coronavirus ..." ... - And this requires huge funds ... - Well, and ... - further - as in the written word ... - But - this is the "first option" ...

    - And the "second option":
    - This is an attempt all the same ... - to blame everything on the global crisis, on falling hydrocarbon prices, etc. ... And the NWF is basically an illusion, virtuality, which has already been biased by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and, as a result. .. -gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia ..; which the IMF controls ...
    -Those. -In its essence, the NWF is a preprogrammed "weak link" that can be sacrificed at any time and not necessarily - precisely for solving the social problems of our needy population ... -So ... -this is my grandmother said in two more ... - Yes, and there will not be enough dry "residue" for the needs of the people ... after they are well "used" by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to carry out their speculative operations ...
    - It's about the same as I personally support Mr. "Sergei Marzhetskiy" and not only in words ... and I put my pluses ... - But in the bottom line, my pluses prevail ... - they are simply spent, but they are not compensated and are not replenished ...- I don’t mind the pros for a good deed ... -But ... here ... -This is the real gratitude ...- the expectation was negative ...
  5. g1washntwn Offline g1washntwn
    g1washntwn (George Washington) 3 March 2020 08: 10
    +1
    Again, money is poured into a bottomless barrel called "saving the banking system."
    A chest without a bottom. There, no matter how rash of gold, there will never be to the top.
  6. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 8 March 2020 09: 11
    0
    Prices are already growing and growing, at 10-20%, well, they will grow to 20-40%.

    Everyone, as grumbled, will be so.

    And the dissatisfied will be declared agents of the State Department and the coronavirus.