Turkey can withdraw Russia from the “Idlib game” without war


The calendar winter is over, and with it the term of the ultimatum put forward by Erdogan Damascus with a demand to withdraw his troops in Idlib. Over the past days, Turks and pro-Turkish formations have knocked out a significant amount of the Syrian military equipment and inflicted tangible losses on the SAR government army. The chances of a direct clash with the Russian contingent are increasing, but it seems that Ankara has found a way to get Moscow out of the game without a war.


The key problem is that in Syria the interests of many players are intertwined: Turkey, Iran, Israel, the USA, Russia, indirectly some Middle Eastern monarchies participate in the conflict. Of all these, Russia is the only one that has been an official ally of the SAR since Soviet times and is located on the territory of the republic at the invitation of Damascus.

But this is far from all the difficulties of Moscow. So, Russia today is closely dependent on the issue of the implementation of a number of energy projects from Turkey, with which we seem to be supposed to fight, defending Syria. In addition, the allied Damascus Tehran has its own interests in the SAR, which often do not coincide with the Russian ones. Due to the Iranian military presence in Syria, the country is subjected to regular air raids from Israel.

So, what do we have today.

The Syrian army, battered by years of exhausting war, has an extremely low offensive potential and the ability to withstand a fresh and well-equipped Turkish army with a short supply shoulder. What does the “idlibic miracle” of Bashar al-Assad rest on? It is an active support of the Russian Air Force. One gets the impression that the cunning Turks have found a way to withdraw Russian aviation from the game without war and the use of air defense systems.

At first, The United States last week significantly conducted a nuclear strike in the event that Russia uses its nuclear arsenal against one of the NATO members. Recall Turkey is a member of the alliance. Now, the frigates Admiral Makarov and Admiral Grigorovich, equipped with Caliber cruise missiles, and the Orsk BDK are hurrying to the Syrian shores. As a counterargument, the U.S. Navy sent AUGs to the Eastern Mediterranean, led by the aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower (CVN 69) (Eisenhower), two missile cruisers and three destroyers. According to the state, it should be accompanied by a nuclear submarine with Tomahawk cruise missiles (Tomahawk).

Secondly, our "good allies" from Tehran invited Ankara to discuss the future of Idlib without Russia. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani believes that Turks, Syrians and Iranians will be able to independently resolve the issue of territorial integrity of the SAR. It is noteworthy that in Idlib, the Turks and their "proxies" conduct the most serious fire on those Syrian units, which are conditionally considered "pro-Russian". It can be assumed that the Iranians are ready to make an “agreement” with Erdogan in order to pull the blanket over themselves, and the Russians who have worked well, wave their hands goodbye.

Thirdly, there is a high probability that Ankara will hit Moscow’s energy projects. Turkey itself does not experience any problems with gas supplies: it has TANAP and the ability to buy LNG, and the winter is abnormally warm. For Russia, the termination of the Turkish Stream will be a serious image blow, since it means a complete collapse of the strategy for constructing bypass gas pipelines around Ukraine. Alternatively, the Turks can simply sharply increase gas tariffs.

Finally, Erdogan began openly blackmailing Europe with Syrian refugees. To be witty, the Turks are releasing them in small batches, but if Ankara wishes, migrants will flood the EU with millions. It is easy to guess that Turkey is putting pressure on the Kremlin’s European partners to persuade him to stop Assad’s active support, leaving him “alone with Erdogan,” as the Turkish president demands.

Seriously, such an insidious eastern policy has a good chance of success.
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  1. Rusa Offline
    Rusa 1 March 2020 12: 53
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    The opinion of the author is only his speculation.
    Moscow, Tehran and others did not report to him what and how it would be in Syria.
  2. Cheburashk Offline
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 1 March 2020 13: 17
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    I do not know how much Iran plays such a role there that it can itself agree with Turkey, and even on conditions acceptable to itself.
    The author is clearly a pessimist and very, I would even say, tenderly calls terrorists "proxies."
    And the United States loves to drive its AUG across the seas to intimidate anyone. According to Assad - yes, they can blast, but no more. But with the energy project, difficulties may arise. But if the nuclear power plant, which Russia is building at its own expense, will not be built, then I will only be glad for this, the money will return back.
    And with refugees, Germany has already howled (German Minister of Defense).

    Chairman of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and German Minister of Defense Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said the European Union and the United States should jointly increase pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to "clear the way for political negotiations" for a ceasefire in Idlib .

    It will be very difficult, but I think that should have been provided for, if not, then other questions arise.
    1. 123 Online
      123 (123) 1 March 2020 14: 44
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      In fact, everything is correctly said, only with

      Chairman of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and German Minister of Defense Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said the European Union and the United States should jointly increase pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to "clear the way for political negotiations" for a ceasefire in Idlib .

      - there is a catch. yes I suppose it’s not so important that she claims Merkel is not yet retired.

      A direct consequence of the political scandal in Thuringia was the resignation of the chairman of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. She also stated that she would not stand as candidate for chancellor in the upcoming elections.

      https://inosmi.ru/politic/20200210/246809328.html
  3. terrykoh Offline
    terrykoh (Dmitriy) 1 March 2020 13: 42
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    Blackmail of Europe by Syrian refugees first of all hits Erdogan! He has nothing to do on the territory of a sovereign state along with the bandits he supports! Then the Idlib problem will be solved with minimal humanitarian damage for everyone! And scaring Russia is a futile business! We ourselves will scare anyone you want and do not surprise us with sanctions! The main thing is that Erdogan blundered too much and now does not know how to crawl away without losing his image! He, more than anyone, does not need a clash with Russia, he will not be the beneficiary in this!
    1. Rusa Offline
      Rusa 1 March 2020 21: 58
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      Support.
  4. Dust Offline
    Dust (Sergei) 1 March 2020 13: 46
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    The author of the article, if you would like to get Russia out of the game, would have been taken out long ago! About the successes of the militants, it's you who read the Turkish media! It is unclear why the author tossed the coals with the US exercises to deliver a nuclear strike! Indeed, it is clear even to the mentally retarded that Russia will instantly answer, for the Idlib Americans will not risk New York and Washington! And further! The author, the Syrian army is a combat-ready army, it has been fighting for many years, unlike the Turkish! Moreover, the Turks do not have aviation ... It is better for the Turks to get out of there before hundreds of coffins go to Turkey.
  5. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 1 March 2020 14: 12
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    Quote: Rusa
    The opinion of the author is only his speculation.

    This is also called analysis and forecasting. wink
    1. Rusa Offline
      Rusa 1 March 2020 22: 05
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      What can be the analysis and forecasting on speculation? )
  6. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 1 March 2020 14: 14
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    Quote: Dust
    The author, the Syrian army is a combat-ready army, it has been fighting for many years, unlike the Turkish! Moreover, the Turks do not have aviation ...

    How do you know so much about the Syrian army? And where did the Turkish aviation go?

    https://topwar.ru/87098-obzor-voenno-vozdushnyh-sil-turcii-shag-nazad.html
    1. Cheburashk Offline
      Cheburashk (Vladimir) 1 March 2020 15: 10
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      Without the Russian Air Force, the Syrian army will be very limited in its actions. Well, perhaps the Tiger Forces, which were trained by instructors from Russia.
      1. Rusa Offline
        Rusa 1 March 2020 22: 07
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        Peskov has already said that Russia will not give up the fight against terrorists in Syria.
    2. Dust Offline
      Dust (Sergei) 1 March 2020 19: 33
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      The words "no aviation" means that the sky is under the control of the Russian Aerospace Forces. As for the Syrian army, this army has been trained by Russian specialists for two years now. The best Syrian officers are trained at Russian military schools. I will say even more, from time to time, the Syrian units travel to Russia and are trained to fight at Russian training grounds. By the way, Donbass is an example for you. Donbass artillery completely suppressed Ukrainian during the war in Ukraine. And who helped the specialists of Donbass, I hope you will understand!)
  7. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker 1 March 2020 14: 25
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    The attack of terrorists with the support of Turkey lasts almost a week. And Russia is waiting for everything on March 5? Our military commander does not allow our military to fight. Separate blows do not fight! Does Russia seem to be out of the game? The Syrians themselves fight back as they can. Assad, without Russia, will not agree to serious agreements with Iran. Iran cannot protect itself in Syria and Assad understands this. I believe that Erdogan puzzled the KREMLIN with his behavior. And Putin, it seems, doesn’t have good analysts, only sneaky ones. He thinks what to do for a long time. And when the “commander” does not know what to do, the “soldiers” begin to panic! Conclusion: The military know what to do! Do not bother them to fight in a war!
  8. 123 Online
    123 (123) 1 March 2020 14: 32
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    One gets the impression that the cunning Turks have found a way to withdraw Russian aviation from the game without war and the use of air defense systems.

    You can’t be so impressionable, have your imagination started again?

    First, the United States last week significantly conducted a nuclear strike in the event that Russia uses its nuclear arsenal against one of the NATO members.

    First, what does nuclear weapon have to do with it? Honor the Russian military doctrine, a possible clash with Turkey in Idlib is not the case. Secondly, are the US ready to launch a nuclear strike against Russia, protecting Erdogan? Has everything changed so much since Obama? Do not tell, even if Donald voiced a similar idea, the orderlies will be nearby. The maximum that they will go to, help from afar, even in a normal (non-nuclear) conflict, they will not directly participate.

    Secondly, our “good allies” from Tehran suggested that Ankara discuss the future of Idlib without Russia. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani believes that Turks, Syrians and Iranians will be able to independently resolve the issue of territorial integrity of the SAR. It is noteworthy that in Idlib, the Turks and their "proxies" conduct the most serious fire on those Syrian units, which are conditionally considered "pro-Russian". It can be assumed that the Iranians are ready to make an “agreement” with Erdogan in order to pull the blanket over themselves, and the Russians who have worked well, wave their hands goodbye.

    They can discuss anything, only they can’t do anything. The Iranian president can consider himself the viceroy of God or spider-man, reality does not depend much on this. How they "successfully resolved the issue of territorial integrity of the ATS" before the arrival of our air forces is not a secret. Russian VKS and "conditionally pro-Russian units of the SAR" will leave Idlib, because Iran and Turkey agreed on this? Are you seriously? They are pro-Russian, not pro-Iranian, and Shoigu Rukhani does not obey, he has a different boss. sad

    Thirdly, there is a high probability that Ankara will hit Moscow’s energy projects. Turkey itself does not experience any problems with gas supplies: it has TANAP and the ability to buy LNG, and the winter is abnormally warm. For Russia, the termination of the Turkish Stream will be a serious image blow, since it means a complete collapse of the strategy for constructing bypass gas pipelines around Ukraine. Alternatively, the Turks can simply sharply increase gas tariffs.

    The probability that something bad will happen is always there, for example, a meteorite may fall. Unlike natural troubles, “surprises” from people with one degree or another probability can be predicted. If you are interested in whether Turkey will “hit” on energy projects, it is necessary to consider not only its capabilities, but also countermeasures. Often you neglect this. yes Consider what they can do and panic. Who will take the response? Pushkin? Yes, the Turks have other sources of gas and can also arrange problems with pumping gas. Do they have millions of tourists to replace Russian? Or a market for conventional "tomatoes"? Will they sell to Iran? And how will the builders returning to their homeland affect the image of Erdogan? Does he have new projects for construction companies? Maybe they will finish building the nuclear power plants themselves? Yes, you need to think about the future, to start making spare parts for the S-400 yourself.

    Finally, Erdogan began openly blackmailing Europe with Syrian refugees. To be witty, the Turks are releasing them in small batches, but if Ankara wishes, migrants will flood the EU with millions. It is easy to guess that Turkey is putting pressure on the Kremlin’s European partners to persuade him to stop Assad’s active support, leaving him “alone with Erdogan,” as the Turkish president demands.

    Refugees to Europe - this is serious, I already cringed all over, as I read. Well what to do request we will watch with sympathy and interest how Europeans solve this problem. winked Believe putting pressure on Kremlin partners is a good idea? This is how Lithuania threatens to stop transit to Kaliningrad if the EU cuts off subsidies.

    Seriously, such an insidious Eastern policy has a good chance of success.

    Seriously, this "Eastern policy" causes a homeric laughter. laughing Did not think your strength in KVN try? winked
    1. Rusa Offline
      Rusa 1 March 2020 22: 15
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      You're right. Pompeo has already said that the United States will not send its soldiers to help Turkey.
  9. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 1 March 2020 14: 49
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    - A substantial, objective article - on a very real objective topic ...
    - My respectist to the author and plus ...
    - And this topic is so objective for Russia today that it is time to take completely radical measures ... - And what measures ???
    “Such“ measures ”, like those when our Russian UN representative V.A. Nebenzya is officially and touching ... - condoles to the whole world for Turkey about the dead Turks who were beaten along with the bandits with whom they fought together in hand; and who themselves suddenly invaded Syria in order to support the bandits who are fighting against the Assad SAA ...
    - So ... - and what else can Russia offer ??? - What other concession must be made to Turkey so that Erdogan will calm down ???
    - What did Russia achieve in Syria ??? - At the very beginning, a catastrophic mistake was made ... - Russia came to Syria to approve the Russian mission to the Middle. East with a handful of military; with several squadrons of the air force; who have behind them the base of Khmeimim, vulnerable from all sides ..; and even no mobility in case of need to deliver Russian equipment and weapons ... - Because the exit from the Black Sea for our ships will be instantly closed; and Iran, Iraq, Georgia, Bulgaria, Azerbaijan and, of course, Turkey ... - they will close their airspace for Russia ... - and how many airplanes you deliver - they will simply start to shoot down ...
    - Personally, I already wrote a lot about the need to create a powerful Russian fortified area in Syria ...
    - Now his absence begins to affect ...
    - What's next???
    - And then the “Gazprom pipelines” - it was necessary to armored vehicles, weapons and all military components to import and deploy an entire Russian military fortified area ... - and not to extend pipelines to Turkey ...
    - Yes, and tomorrow, Merkel will start an open anti-Russian company ... - who needs more crowds of refugees ... - They cannot get rid of the former refugees ...
    - So for Gazprom, the Turkish Stream and SP-2 become a dream ... - and Gazprom itself just stops its activities and disappears ... - I’m already tired of writing about this personally ...
    - The "mission" of Russia in Syria may also end ...
    1. Cheburashk Offline
      Cheburashk (Vladimir) 1 March 2020 15: 08
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      What are you so panicking: planes will begin to shoot down, the straits will be closed, and so on. Nobody will fly down planes, the straits can be closed if Turkey declares war on Russia. And even that is not clear what Russia can do.
      But introducing a large group in Syria is also not a panacea, then they will begin to say why, why, for what, how much it costs, and so on.
      Without the Russian Aerospace Forces, the Syrians cannot really attack.
      For the rest, I agree with you, but the trouble is that economics and politics, in my opinion, do not play together, but separately. Really nobody could predict such a situation with Idlib?
      1. gorenina91 Offline
        gorenina91 (Irina) 1 March 2020 15: 27
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        But introducing a large group in Syria is also not a panacea, then they will begin to say why, why, for what, how much it costs, and so on.

        - We read carefully ... - Today it is already quite late to import ...
        - But it was possible to create everything in as many as five years ... - And Russia, which has been doing all these five years ...: "I play the harmonica ..., with ... Syrians in sight, etc ... "- at the very beginning it was clear that Assad’s army is very weak and very serious support and foundation are needed ... - And the VKS targeted strikes are clearly not enough ...

        For the rest, I agree with you, but the trouble is that economics and politics, in my opinion, do not play together, but separately. Really nobody could predict such a situation with Idlib?

        - Yes, personally, I’m already tired of predicting ... - These are all the forecasts that "appeared" ... - Hahah ...
        - Yes, and where does Idlib ??? - Not Idlib - so Aleppo ..; not Aleppo ... - so Seracib, etc ...
        - Yes ... and how to understand it - "And for the rest I agree with you" ... - is this a minus to me as a sign of "consent" or something ??? - I see ... - everything is clear with you ... - Hahah ...
        1. Cheburashk Offline
          Cheburashk (Vladimir) 1 March 2020 16: 00
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          Well, if you answered everything for me ha ha ha, you can continue on to your successful time of day, hahaah, and I didn’t set you a minus.
  10. Bakht Offline
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 1 March 2020 15: 33
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    In principle, "Russia can withdraw Turkey from the Idlib game without war."
    All that is needed is political will and determination. A full package of economic sanctions against Turkey and the song of Erdogan sung. And not in words of the blockade, but in practice. They have already been listed here. Tourists, tomatoes, nuclear power plants, gas, air defense systems. Well, do not save the Sultan during the next coup.
    Introduce the entire package and calmly wait a couple of months. During this time, from a purely military point of view, prompt Damascus to introduce a complete no-fly zone over Syrian territory. Shoot down everything that flies. Even sparrows.
    The options are darkness. There is no one. Determined to do all this.
  11. Regis Offline
    Regis (Sergey Kopan) 1 March 2020 16: 36
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    Let's start with the third point. Erdogan is building Turkey in the long run as a global hub for trade in petroleum products, oil and gas. It is about becoming an intermediary in the supply of hydrocarbons from the Middle East to Europe. And, I emphasize, Russia helps in realizing this dream of the Turkish president, both technically and politically. Over the past 10 years, gas consumption in Turkey has doubled. And this growth is also a strategic objective for the government and for the country's industry. Currently, gas consumption in Turkey corresponds to approximately 50 billion cubic meters per year. Last year, consumption was 46,7 billion cubic meters, while approximately 60% of all gas that Turkey consumed was supplied from Russia. 20% was supplied from Iran and about 7% from Azerbaijan. Thus, Russia dominates the Turkish market, and the expansion of supplies from Russia is crucial for the Turkish economy. So it is doubtful that the Turkish president would seriously decide to stop the gas pipeline. "Play" on this issue is real and even necessary, but seriously unlikely.
    The second question, "allies," you say? Iran is our "ally", seriously, or what? Yes, he never was. Iran is always "on its own mind" - this time. The second - we are talking only about Idlib (one of the 14 governorates in northwestern Syria). Just. And everyone understands this. The United States and its puppets from Germany to all sorts of English, of course, would like to squeeze Russia out of Syria. But alas, we are talking about what territory Turkey will get from one of the 14 governorates in northwestern Syria.
    First point. What the United States wants is understandable. What their fleet is doing in the Mediterranean Sea is clear as it became after the Second World War and continues to this day. Has something changed dramatically? Not really.
    The crisis? Undoubtedly, but, alas, regional. Can grow into a massacre? Quite. But for now, everything is as always.
  12. ABM Offline
    ABM (ABM) 1 March 2020 16: 44
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    Stop the panic!
  13. Wanderer039 Offline
    Wanderer039 1 March 2020 17: 02
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    Oh my God, who would doubt it, again Marzhetsky with the phrase - Katz offers to give up ... from the famous film, with Dmitry Kharatyan in the title role .. Advise to surrender Tsakhal, Mr. Marzhetsky, or you don’t want to give your advice like that ?! They made fun of the well-equipped Turkish army ... The main tank of the Turkish army is the antediluvian M-60 and its modifications, in reserve even more ancient M48A2C tanks, with gasoline engines, Leopard-2 tanks, at least Leopard-1 are the same antiques as M -60 ... LNG is expensive, and Turkey’s economy is on the verge of default, so it’s still not clear who will fly the most from the break with Russia, although, as for me, it’s definitely not the Russian Federation ... They’ll complete the North Stream-2, and this is much more important than the whole of Turkey together with the Turks combined ... As for the refugees, then Greece can take advantage of then Turkey will be drawn into Syria, and to give the Turks a kick in Cyprus, the fleet of Greeks has already gone to sea ... And in sea battles with the Greeks, the Turks were always unlucky ... The cruiser Averof, who smashed the Turks, is still preserved by the Greeks as a museum.
    1. gorenina91 Offline
      gorenina91 (Irina) 1 March 2020 18: 01
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      The main tank of the Turkish army is antediluvian M-60 and its modifications, in reserve are even more ancient M48A2C tanks, with gasoline engines, Leopard-2 tanks, at least Leopard-1 are the same antiques as the M-60 ...

      - And what tanks in Russia ??? - Already do, do upgrade scrap metal ... - just a shame to read about all these "improvements" ... - And how and what are they equipped with ??? - Yes, the Israeli tankers would simply refuse to fight on such tanks ... - and all the Jews would support them ... - And for Russia, this will do ... ... - Yeah ...
      - Ah, Armata ... - Well .., there is sheer "shyness" ... - and Uralvagon does not have enough money (it would be better if he let out wagons - they probably won't rename it for this purpose) ..; Yes, and the engine still can’t be picked up for Armata ... - "But by the way, it’s not the geese ... - everything is amiss ..." ... ... - What about Vysotsky ...
      - But the Turks and their tanks are riveting (although much of the Leopards was ripped off ... - not all the same, the Chinese are stealing someone else's) ...

      As for the refugees, then Greece can take advantage of the fact that Turkey will be drawn into Syria and give the Turks a kick in Cyprus, the Greek fleet has already gone to sea ..

      - What Greeks ... - Yes, and even the Turks kick ??? - Hahah ... - Yes, the Turks have been living on Greek soil for almost 500 years ... - And the Greeks are not gu-gu ... - And it’s not worth mentioning about Cyprus ... - sheer Greek shame ... save before the Turks ...
      1. Wanderer039 Offline
        Wanderer039 1 March 2020 22: 06
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        In the Russian Federation, reservists will be put on the T-72B, in extreme cases, on the T-72AV, and these tanks are superior in all respects to Turkish scrap metal, such as M-60, M-48, Leopard-1, which is the basis of Turkey’s tank fleet .. In Cyprus, the Greeks did not tear the Turks just because of US intervention, learn the materiel.
        1. gorenina91 Offline
          gorenina91 (Irina) 2 March 2020 04: 03
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          In Cyprus, the Greeks did not break the Turks just because of US intervention, learn the materiel.

          - From the region ... - "Here we would give them if they would catch us ..."
          - That's how Turkey has been “catching up” with Greece for almost 500 years ... - And when it catches up, Greece will simply “tear” Turkey ... -Hahah, and only ...

          In the Russian Federation reservists will be put on the T-72B, in extreme cases - on the T-72AV

          - And will Russia again buy thermal imagers for these tanks from the French ??? - And electronic sights ??? - A complex of active protection (KAZ) from the time of King Peas ??? - and where is satellite communications and modern complexes of orientation devices ??? - How can on-board computers provide the crew with data from the same drones and other information ??? - And where are the fire adjustment devices ???
          - Are you raving again ???
          - That would be Israeli tank reservists would be put in the "Merkava Mk.1" and sent against the same Ishilov armed with RPG-7; TOW; Javelins or against the same old "Abrams" ...
          - And you saw how our tanks shoot at the Tank Biathlon ... - at a white light like a pretty penny ... - and there isn’t much difference ... - that our tankers (and these are the best of the best crews) shoot, that the Ethiopians they shoot from our tanks ... - the difference is small ...
          - I propose to master the mat myself. part ... - Also me ... - expert ...
          - In general - a lot of things on the website of couch strategists ... - it’s even scary ...
          - Has anyone really served in the army ... - and not in the construction battalion ???
          1. General Black Offline
            General Black (Gennady) 2 March 2020 10: 28
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            Have you really served?
            1. gorenina91 Offline
              gorenina91 (Irina) 2 March 2020 11: 32
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              Yes, I personally ... - Art. Lieutenant of reserve; military department (VUS 521500 "Systems of special satellite communications") ... - Already two times I was called from the military registration and enlistment office for training ... and three times - for parachute jumping ... - and earlier, before that I already jumped ... - there are already 59 jumps ... - They constantly offer to serve in our valiant Russian Army and ... - immediately to the captain (major) position ... - And the salary is cool ...
              - But my work is already normal ... - Yes, and personal life comes first, and my parents are against ... - so ...
              - But I'm just amazed ... - But did anyone from the site team generally serve in the army ???
              - I personally have to confront one of these couch strategists ... one to confront ... - Who will "blind" and "confuse" American and Chinese satellites and missiles ...
              - Here the special group will be parachuted from somewhere in the taiga and we will confront all Russian enemies ... - and to the Chinese ... - first of all ... - These are the worst opponents and enemies of Russia today ... - Even Americans are in second place ...
              - But, while Siberia is alive ... - Russia is invincible ... - But now ... - how long will all this ...
              1. General Black Offline
                General Black (Gennady) 2 March 2020 14: 44
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                It so happened that I have the same VUS, what I want to say, but what exactly can you say in your military specialty? Can you correctly link the station to the terrain, not the "plus-minus" two bast shoes ", taking into account the magnetic declination? Form an array of CXOS and enter it on the on-board computer? Check the link line with OA? What will you do if the" Collector Failure "indicator lights up or "Accident ZS" at RPDU. In general, are you able to deploy the complex in the "fields"?

                - They constantly offer to serve in our valiant Russian Army and ... - immediately to the captain (major) position ... - And the salary is cool ...

                I dare to disappoint you a little. The formation of an officer takes place precisely in the combat unit. In the combat unit, if you are lucky, you will receive the "first" officer rank "captain". Because the captain knows everything. Now in the primary positions are still captains and majors. Believe me. Nobody will put a “jacket” on a major position, even with 59 jumps. This is an undermining of the combat readiness of the unit. And there is also a list of posts for which women are allowed, and there are those for which no. The military commissariat knows for sure about this. So, someone else will be scampering in the taiga. Something like that. Sincerely, k.3 stock rank.
                1. gorenina91 Offline
                  gorenina91 (Irina) 2 March 2020 15: 05
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                  - That's why I won’t go to our valiant army ... - Firstly ... - it’s not very “mine” ...
                  - And secondly ... - as I already wrote ... - in the first place ... - personal life ...
                  - But, of course ... - if it suddenly arises ... as they say "severe necessity" ... - then, of course ... - here without any talk ... - only carry out the order .. and the task ...

                  so that someone else will rush through the taiga.

                  - Yes, we already had a winter landing (not this one) in the taiga ... - And it was supposed to take place .., but the fires in the taiga prevented ... - so everything went with "simple" activities ...
                  - I think that for me all this is already in the past ... - drove through ...
  14. Gadlei Offline
    Gadlei 1 March 2020 17: 43
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    The delirium of a drunken hedgehog.
  15. Tramp1812 Offline
    Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 1 March 2020 19: 09
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    Great Turkey, but nowhere to retreat. Essentially, Erdogan put everything on the Syrian map. It was she who was going to cover up failures in domestic and foreign policy. A neo-Ottoman carrot is hung in front of the Turks in the interior of the country's Islamization and departure from Ataturk's course. Iran has similar problems. Turkey and Iran are unfortunate comrades and could temporarily become situational partners. It is possible to make Russia a pen under such circumstances. You won’t be able to play back. But will the Russian Federation agree to such an option? As for me - no. And then what if this “no” is reinforced by the military successes of the Assad regime? On the other hand, it is unprofitable and it will be necessary to expand the military presence. The videoconferencing will not solve the problem of the physical consolidation of the Syrians in the territories that can be recaptured from the Turks. Is Russia ready to increase losses in manpower, equipment, costs? And most importantly, how in this situation to build further relations with Turkey and Iran? But the option of resolving the crisis without Russia's participation is as unpredictable as with its participation. But there are still Arab countries, the USA and Israel. Depending on the attitude of these countries to the events around Syria, the stripping, or vice versa - the support of illegal armed groups, the scenario for the continuation and end of the conflict changes significantly. The situation is becoming increasingly complicated.
    1. commbatant Offline
      commbatant (Sergei) 2 March 2020 01: 51
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      Quote: Rogue1812
      But will the Russian Federation agree to such an option? As for me - no.

      No one will ask her ... Turkey will close its straits, Iran will have its airspace and all logistics covered with a "copper basin", we will only have to evacuate our contingent .... if they give ...
      During its presence in the SAR, the Russian Federation was not able to create a SAR of self-sufficient aircraft, this is a system error when the SA left the DRA in the 89th, as it turned out, there were also no strong and self-sufficient aircraft that were quickly destroyed by the Taliban ... .
      Militarily, the Russian Federation urgently needs to build a reserve military airfield in Tartus and evacuation plans, as during the fighting in the SAR, the Turkish army will try to cut off the VVB in Khmeimim from the PMTO in Tartus ....
      With a worse scenario, the Russian Federation will repeat the American experience of "fleeing Saigon" ....
  16. commbatant Offline
    commbatant (Sergei) 2 March 2020 01: 35
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    The Syrian army, battered by years of exhausting war, has an extremely low offensive potential and the ability to withstand a fresh and well-equipped Turkish army

    In the best years of its development, the SAR Armed Forces could never compete with the Turkish Armed Forces, yielding both in combat strength and combat training ....
    Turkey can now set its 2nd and 3rd PA against the SV SAR (they always "specialized" in the Soviet Transcaucasia and the BV), which can be strengthened by the 11th AK, transferred from Cyprus and re-equipped with the A and BT Aegean PAs, to be plans of the Turkish Ministry of Defense until 2011 to disband ....
    In the air and at sea, the Turks have complete superiority ...
    The only deterrent for Turkey in the ATS is the possible presence of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in the ATS, which will be enough for Turkey ....
    The war between Turkey and the SAR is beneficial only to the Anglo-Saxons and Israeli Jews, as a result of which the latter will occupy most of the coast and oil fields of the SAR, and the USA will subsequently create including at the expense of the territories of Turkey and the SAR-Kurdistan .... and the crowds of refugees will flee to a happy and tolerant EUU ....
    1. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 2 March 2020 06: 35
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      Thanks for the adequate and detailed comment.
    2. Tramp1812 Offline
      Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 2 March 2020 06: 46
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      Quote: commbatant
      The Syrian army, battered by years of exhausting war, has an extremely low offensive potential and the ability to withstand a fresh and well-equipped Turkish army

      In the best years of its development, the SAR Armed Forces could never compete with the Turkish Armed Forces, yielding both in combat strength and combat training ....
      Turkey can now set its 2nd and 3rd PA against SV SAR (they always "specialized" in the Soviet Transcaucasia and BV), which can be strengthened by the 11th AK deployed from Cyprus and re-equipped with A and BT Aegean PAs, subject to plans Turkish Ministry of Defense until 2011 to disband ..
      The war between Turkey and the SAR is beneficial only to the Anglo-Saxons and Israeli Jews, according to the results of which the latter will occupy most of the coast and the oil fields of the SAR, and the USA will subsequently create including due to the territories of Turkey.

      No one seriously says that the Assad regime is able to confront Turkey one on one. You are right, in my opinion, drew an analogy with the confrontation between the Taliban and the regime of Najibullah. Syria is even sadder. But this is not about that. The situational alliance between Iran and Russia, with certain introductory ones, may change to an alliance between the Russian Federation and Israel. It is much more reliable. The author of the publication under discussion logically noted that Israel under no circumstances would tolerate Iran’s gain at its borders. And now unpredictable Turkey. It seems that in the Arab countries, the Anglo-Saxons - there are a lot of points for creating a possible alliance against isolated Turkey and Iran. In the end, a change of regimes in Turkey and Iran themselves is not ruled out. The author analyzed a very interesting version of the development of events. But she is not the only one. And it is possible only with the inaction of Israel and other players. Optimal for Turkey and Russia, in my subjective opinion, is the division of the territory of Syria. But in this situation, Iran remains out of work. And Turkey has an opportunity to strengthen. Which is unlikely to please the Arab countries, Israel, Russia and the Anglo-Saxons. The situation is now at the peak point of the storm. And should be resolved quickly enough. The whole question: which way and how. One of the options was highlighted by the author of the publication. Others are not excluded. Depending on the introductory. Here are just these introductory can be very different. It seems that Turkey and Iran will lose. The strengths and capabilities of their objective and potential adversaries are immeasurably greater. Plus, a difficult domestic political situation in these countries. Of course, there is a temptation to squeeze the Russian Federation out of Syria and solve everything without it. Laying on the shoulder blades of the Persians and Turks. But this is again from the scope of possible options.
  17. gore Offline
    gore (Alexander) 2 March 2020 06: 16
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    Author, you forgot the moment when Russia "brought" the Turkish economy with simple tomatoes and beaches in Antalya.
    So do not consider yourself smarter than others ...
    1. Tramp1812 Offline
      Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 2 March 2020 06: 52
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      Quote: gore
      Author, you forgot the moment when Russia "brought" the Turkish economy with simple tomatoes and beaches in Antalya.
      So do not consider yourself smarter than others ...

      I, in turn, would advise you personally to be concerned about the culture of the discussion. As well as the need to restrain emotions and operate on facts, according to the dialectical theory of proof.
  18. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 2 March 2020 06: 29
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    Quote: Rusa
    What can be the analysis and forecasting on speculation?)

    You do not understand what you are writing.
  19. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 2 March 2020 06: 30
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    Quote: gore
    Author, you forgot the moment when Russia "brought" the Turkish economy with simple tomatoes and beaches in Antalya.
    So do not consider yourself smarter than others ...

    You can be advised the same. Laughing tomatoes.
  20. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 2 March 2020 06: 32
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    Quote: Wanderer039
    Oh my God, who would doubt it, again Marzhetsky with the phrase - Katz offers to give up ... from the famous film, with Dmitry Kharatyan in the title role .. Advise to surrender Tsakhal, Mr. Marzhetsky, or you don’t want to give your advice like that ?!

    You again? Can’t you calm down? Why aren't you in Idlib with a gun in your mouth?
  21. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 2 March 2020 06: 33
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    Quote: Cheburashk
    What are you so panicking: planes will begin to shoot down, the straits will be closed, and so on. Nobody will fly down planes, the straits can be closed if Turkey declares war on Russia. And even that is not clear what Russia can do.
    But introducing a large group in Syria is also not a panacea, then they will begin to say why, why, for what, how much it costs, and so on.
    Without the Russian Aerospace Forces, the Syrians cannot really attack.
    For the rest, I agree with you, but the trouble is that economics and politics, in my opinion, do not play together, but separately. Really nobody could predict such a situation with Idlib?

    Yesterday 2 planes were shot down. So far, only Syrian.
    1. Accidentally Offline
      Accidentally 2 March 2020 07: 27
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      It is doubtful ... that the Syrian pilots. Faster than ours. And the law on the secrecy of losses for which adopted a few years ago. To write off the losses on the horn line.
  22. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 2 March 2020 07: 08
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    Quote: Regis
    Currently, gas consumption in Turkey corresponds to approximately 50 billion cubic meters per year. Last year, consumption was 46,7 billion cubic meters, while approximately 60% of all gas that Turkey consumed was supplied from Russia. 20% was supplied from Iran and about 7% from Azerbaijan. Thus, Russia dominates the Turkish market, and the expansion of supplies from Russia is crucial for the Turkish economy.

    Turkey is constantly reducing the consumption of Russian gas and has diversified its supplies. And by the way, winter is over. Do not wishful thinking, then you will not be mistaken.
  23. nznz Offline
    nznz (Igor) 2 March 2020 14: 35
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    Frank distortion of the facts. The first thing that is clearly a lie - Iran offered Turkey a meeting without Russia, but not on the future of Syria, but on the situation in Idlib. You can not read further. The depth of the strategist is visible ... by litter .. Manuals are old ... change ..
  24. Paspom Offline
    Paspom (Dmitry Zezegov) 2 March 2020 22: 02
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    And it didn’t occur to this author that the turkey so glorified by him, having settled on five fronts (Syria, Libya, Russia, Europe (refugees), well, the Kurds, of course ... !!!), simply ceases to exist on the political map. ..?!
  25. Alexander Churinov (Alexander) 2 March 2020 22: 28
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    Point by point:
    1. The United States and NATO are unlikely to turn up in support of Turkey, even if direct clashes between Turkey and Russia begin;
    2. The Iranians may want an agreement with the Turks, but Assad is unlikely;
    3. Moscow has no less, if not more, economic arguments against Turkey. Remember the past tomatoes.
    FINALLY: By releasing refugees to Europe, Erdogan thus causes even more hostility among Europeans. They can’t stand him anyway.
  26. kriten Offline
    kriten (Vladimir) 3 March 2020 13: 52
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    Russia somehow supports Iran, so it's hard to believe these nonsense. As always, there is trade in the East, no more. What if someone gives in. Iran’s alliance with Turkey will deprive Iran of the penultimate ally.