"Turkoman Republic": how far is Erdogan ready to go in conflict with Damascus


After the aggravation in Idlib, the situation is in limbo. Turkey is seething with chauvinist and anti-Russian sentiments; martial law has been declared in the country. President Erdogan took a wait-and-see pause, and his adviser said that Ankara was ready for the seventeenth war with Russia.


To be or not to be this war: what will Recep Tayyip Erdogan decide?

Turkish social networks are filled with poison and negative to our country due to the death of their military as a result of an air strike of the Russian Aerospace Forces. For example, Ahmet Sonuj, a video blogger, states:

What will end this business? You can’t even imagine what seeds of hatred you sowed.

Some “network experts” there do not believe that the Russian pilots could not identify the Turkish military among the militants, and deliberately used certain “penetrating bombs” on them. Others criticize Sergey Lavrov, who said that terrorists should not be negotiated:

How do you define terrorism? Therefore, you should ask why you are not talking about the PKK / YPG terrorists who occupied the east of the Euphrates.

Apparently, they are able to distinguish between “right terrorists” and “wrong”. Still others significantly publish footage of Russian frigates equipped with Caliber cruise missiles passing the Bosphorus and Dardanelles. Against this background, the temptation is great for President Erdogan to arrange a small victorious war in order to increase his rating. The question is how to "pack" this undisguised aggression against a sovereign state?

If you recall the recent history, then a similar precedent already exists. In 1974, Turkey landed its landing on the island of Cyprus, where there was an ethnic conflict between the Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots. As a result of the military operation, the island was divided into two parts, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus arose. This state is still not recognized by anyone except Ankara, which does not prevent it from being comfortable enough to exist all these years.

It’s no secret that in Syria Turkomans (Turkmens) related to the Turks live, mainly in Aleppo and Latakia. In 2012, the “Syrian Turkmen Platform” was created, officially supported by Turkey. They have Syrian Turkomans and their armed units. With Ankara’s great desire, it is possible to conduct some kind of plebescite and the appearance of the “Turkoman Republic of Northern Syria” as a result of which the Turkish “northern wind” will blow to help the militia and earn a “voentorg”.

In general, if they want, then the Turks will find a plausible excuse to gain a foothold in Syria and lay claim to part of its northern territories. The scenario is quite working, but the question is, is Erdogan ready for such serious political steps and their long-term consequences? Then the Turkish Kurds can raise the question of their own national autonomy, and then the Syrian Kurds in the east of the country. A stone thrown into the water will give circles on it.

Ankara’s official war with Damascus is also an undesirable scenario today. Despite the superiority of the Turks over the Syrian army, Kremlin support will make the conflict protracted. When the first wave of chauvinistic fervor passes, the war will have an extremely negative impact on Turkish the economy, the question will be joint energy projects with Russia. The Western countries led by the USA look the most benefited from the seventeenth Russo-Turkish war: Ankara and Moscow will mutually weaken each other, and in case of military failures, the regime of President Erdogan can be swept away by the opposition in favor of a more pro-American protege.

The most reasonable decision for Erdogan would be to properly recoup for his losses in the Syrian army and fix some intermediate result for his internal audience, without going over the last line. Damascus should continue the offensive, trying to take control of as much territory as possible before the upcoming talks between the Kremlin and Ankara.
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  1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 1 March 2020 09: 52
    -2
    When the child's whims go far or become unbearable, literate parents will spank and put them in a corner so that the child thinks about his behavior. And if the parents are "stupid" and continue to fulfill the child's whims, then a MONSTER grows out of the child, which does not accept refusals and does not understand. So Putin himself raised this MONSTER !! And if you don't "spank" him now, then this monster will drink a lot of blood !!
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 1 March 2020 12: 07
      0
      When the child’s vagaries go far or become unbearable, competent parents will spank and put in a corner so that the child thinks about their behavior.

      The child is not yours, the neighbor. Still want to spank? winked

      And if the parents are "stupid" and continue to fulfill the child's whims, then a MONSTER grows out of the child, which does not accept refusals and does not understand.

      He grows up without parents, wants to be adopted, but "uncles and aunts" are not taken into the family (EU), he brings up from afar. Only the local punks were accepted into their NATO gang. And he is no longer a child, a difficult teenager.

      So Putin himself raised this MONSTER !!

      From this moment in more detail, please. recourse Is this when his uncle Vova grew up? No. Not our nephew. request All he did was not let him be put to sleep when the tanned uncle wanted to show what euthanasia is.

      And if you don't "spank" him now, then this monster will drink a lot of blood !!

      All the monsters will get tired of spanking. And the process of "spanking" itself does not look plausible, the palm will not work, you will have to wave a baseball bat, blood will squish in the process. sad
    2. commbatant Offline commbatant
      commbatant (Sergei) 1 March 2020 17: 52
      0
      Quote: steel maker
      So Putin himself raised this MONSTER !!

      You are to blame for every news on this site, it smells like schizophrenia, look better at your Old Man ...
    3. Rubik Offline Rubik
      Rubik 2 March 2020 21: 33
      0
      Yes, they fought with Turkey 16 times ... believe me, if they could, they would have spanked a long time ago ... wouldn’t have taken this rubbish ... Turkey is not Georgia, not Ukraine .. Little Vovochka, if he could, he would do something. I don’t understand one thing .. Russia can get in, like, protect its own in Ukraine, and Turkey can’t protect its Turkoman near its borders ????????????????????? And anyway, where did you get the idea that there are terrorists ???? If it is forbidden in Russia, this does not mean that everyone should take them for terrorists ... Turkey considers PKK Kurds to be terrorists, and you in Moscow allowed them to open an office ... where is your justice ?????
      1. boriz Offline boriz
        boriz (boriz) 3 March 2020 00: 12
        +1
        Our justice will come when the Syrians fill up a couple of Turkish planes, and if the Sultan does not calm down, the Kurds will fight with him.
  2. Regis Offline Regis
    Regis (Sergey Kopan) 1 March 2020 11: 20
    +2
    Erdogan is trying to comprehensively solve several of his problems. In domestic policy - to raise your image, to "correct" the discontent of the military (which is better than an external enemy for this?) In foreign policy - to raise again the image of Turkey as a player in the foreign arena. Tear off a piece of territory from Syria (if it is also with oil ...) So, there will be bargaining.
    1. commbatant Offline commbatant
      commbatant (Sergei) 1 March 2020 17: 58
      +1
      Quote: Regis
      Erdogan is trying to comprehensively solve several of his problems. In domestic politics - to raise your image, "correct" the discontent of the military

      He has already "corrected" his military, immediately after the failure of the military coup, as a result of the "purge" the highest command staff of the Turkish Armed Forces was bled white.

      In foreign policy, again, to raise the image of Turkey as a player in the foreign arena.

      For this, he climbed into Libya, not understanding all the risks ...

      Tear off a piece of territory from Syria

      - this is normal, because SAR was once part of the Ottoman Empire, the main tidbit is control over the river. Euphrates and its waterworks ....

      (if he is also with oil ...)

      - This piece was already staked out by the USA and Israeli Jews ...
      1. Regis Offline Regis
        Regis (Sergey Kopan) 2 March 2020 10: 32
        +2
        Not everything is so dashing and simple. Many underestimated the Turkish military in domestic politics.
        1. commbatant Offline commbatant
          commbatant (Sergei) 2 March 2020 19: 34
          +1
          Quote: Regis
          Many underestimated Turkish military in domestic politics.

          The ranks of the Turkish Armed Forces began to "cleanse" (as once the Red Army before the Second World War) long before the attempted last military coup ... sooner or later, this will affect the combat readiness of the Turkish Armed Forces ...
          1. Regis Offline Regis
            Regis (Sergey Kopan) 3 March 2020 08: 22
            +1
            Our argument does not make sense. Time will tell.
  3. sharp-lad Offline sharp-lad
    sharp-lad (Oleg) 1 March 2020 15: 01
    +3
    What will end this business? You can’t even imagine what seeds of hatred you sowed.

    Interestingly, and the Turks themselves imagine what memories they evoke from the dark depths of history?
    1. xilia72 Offline xilia72
      xilia72 (xantos) 1 March 2020 15: 16
      +2
      I think that the Turks are sure (because the republic of Hatay, northern Cyprus, daily violation of the borders with Greece, Iraq, Syria, Libya and, probably, follows) step by step push their interests, that Europeans are not able to resist.
  4. The comment was deleted.
  5. Roarv Offline Roarv
    Roarv (Robert) 2 March 2020 22: 38
    +1
    Erdogash Turk embarked on the path of Blackmail .... It will end badly for Turkey - personally very bad for Erdogan .. The EU is blackmailing - Refugees:
    Iran - Corn Naber - US bases.
    Iraq - seized territory.
    Libya - Oil Fields .. + terminals.
    Syria - The territory of several provinces.
    Russia - NPPs, Loan for S-400 air defense systems, Turkish stream (how much $ billion)
    USA - again buy S-400 ...
    Greece is a controversial issue in Cyprus ...
    So after all, it is also by chance that the Turkish side number 1 gets into flying over someone else’s territory ...... provocation and all.
    When you have so many external enemies + internal you need to think about something.
    In general, Erdogan will have a nuclear power plant, which means that there will be nuclear weapons, everyone will have fun with his ambitions ...