Russian Aerospace Forces frustrated Erdogan’s “blitzkrieg”. What's next?


Last day the situation in Syria sharply worsened. President Erdogan switched from threats to their execution and actually launched an operation to “liberate” Idlib from the government forces of the SAR. However, the “blitzkrieg” was foiled, barely starting, with the help of the Russian Aerospace Forces. What will happen next: the real war of Ankara with Damascus and Moscow, or can the parties find a compromise?


The day before, with the support of Turkish artillery and special forces, the militants launched a counterattack on the Syrian army. The primary goal for them was the "liberation" of the village of Nairab, located near the capital of the province of Idlib. This locality was recently occupied by government forces of the SAR.

Initially, the actions of the militants were successful: they were able to knock out and capture several units of armored vehicles. However, then the "cavalry" appeared: the Russian Su-24 and Su-35S began to work, and the offensive choked. VKS of the Russian Federation destroyed machinery terrorists, and the Syrians were able to knock out several units of Turkish armored vehicles. After Moscow officially notified Ankara that the Turkish artillery was fixing fire by observers, it was discontinued.

So, an attempt to resolve the issue by force on the move in Turkey failed. What next: the parties will sit at the negotiating table, or will they begin to escalate the conflict further?

As we noted earlier, Ankara drove into Idlib a very serious seven thousandth group by local standards with two thousand units of armored vehicles. If this force instead of the “barmalei” goes on the offensive for real, then the result will be completely different. Turkey can dramatically reduce the combat capabilities of the Russian Aerospace Forces by cutting off its supply through its straits.

Yes, according to the Montreux Convention, this can be done only in the event of an officially declared war, but in reality, the Turks can create for the "Syrian express" going through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles the maximum unfavorable regime. As the saying goes, there would be a desire: it is possible to arrange queues in the straits, networks will be wound on ship propellers, ships can “accidentally” collide, etc. Turkey may also close its airspace for Russian aircraft. It’s necessary to fly bypassing through Iran, but with the help of air support alone you won’t be warring for a long time. In addition, the militants began to actively use MANPADS against Russian aviation in Idlib. Ankara very meaningly asked the United States for help in the supply of Patriot air defense systems. In general, ignoring Turkey’s interests in the region would be extremely imprudent.

On the other hand, the allies are also very belligerent. Damascus promises to completely clear Idlib and Aleppo. Syrian authorities warn that a direct operation by Turkish troops against government ATS will be regarded as a declaration of war. Note that neither the United States nor the NATO bloc are prepared in such circumstances to fight in Idlib. It is gratifying that the Russian Aerospace Forces did not sit back, quickly coming to the aid of the Syrians, turning the tide. And on February 19, strategic Tu-22M3 bombers escaped from Russia, accompanied by fighters, which for several hours defiantly flew over the Black Sea.

The question of the future north of the SAR is very difficult, since it calls into question all the previous achievements of President Erdogan. Initially, his ambitions seemed to extend to all of Syria. Then the “lip” had to be “rolled up” and confined to the province of Idlib. However, Turkey did not fulfill its obligations to demilitarize it, so the allies had to resolve the issue with terrorists by force. In fact, the Turks lost more than half of their "conquests" in Idlib.

Judging by the comments leaking into the press, Moscow suggested that Ankara limit itself to a small buffer strip along the border to protect against Kurdish armed groups and create something like a “ghetto” in the image and likeness of the Gaza Strip. President Erdogan was not enthusiastic about the idea, and he tried to turn the tide with the hands of the “barmaley”. Did not work out. Now everything will depend on whether Turkey is ready for a real war, having been officially declared an aggressor against a sovereign state?

Judging by the conciliatory statements, Ankara does not want to go so far. The Turkish Minister of Defense even outlined the conditions for the withdrawal of his troops from Syria:

There will be a constitution, legitimate elections will be held, a legitimate government will come, a democratic state will appear, then everyone will take all the places, and we will do it. When there is a democratic leadership, then Turkey will quit.


In some ways, it resembles the “Minsk format”, about which we wrote on the eve. Perhaps the parties can still come to some kind of consensus, without bringing the matter to great bloodshed.
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14 comments
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  1. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker 21 February 2020 14: 01
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    Not scared, not abandoned! I say, do not interfere with our military, they know what to do! Still, “Caliber” on barmaley so that Erdogan completely calmed down.
    1. bear040 Offline
      bear040 22 February 2020 09: 43
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      Gauges on barmaley are not as effective as you think, and expensive ... It’s better to use volumetric bomb air bombs so that a shortage of coffins arises in Turkey ..
  2. bear040 Offline
    bear040 22 February 2020 09: 42
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    I don’t understand why to write such nonsense, and repeating them repeatedly, under different names and sauce ?! Is this someone’s order to inspire the citizens of the Russian Federation with the idea that the Russian Federation will be able to respond to the destruction or attempt to destroy Russian troops in Syria only by transferring its additional units to Syria ?! This is nonsense, and judging by the demonstration of power organized by the Russian government, demonstratively conducting the exercises of bombing units over the Black Sea in Moscow, they think the same .. Tu-22M3 is a carrier of the supersonic anti-ship missile system X-22 Storm, whose warhead is designed to destroy cruisers and aircraft carriers an adversary ... One such pill is enough for any Turkish frigate to go to study the seabed ... In Georgia, Russia has already shown that shooting Russian soldiers is unhealthy ..
    1. Mikhail Petrov Offline
      Mikhail Petrov (Mikhail Petrov) 22 February 2020 10: 51
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      Any such frigate in Turkey will have enough of one such pill to go to study the seabed.

      So Turkey or NATO, which is one and the same?
      1. Wanderer039 Offline
        Wanderer039 22 February 2020 22: 42
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        NATO will not fit in for Turkey ... There are no bad people to die under missiles of the Strategic Missile Forces ...
  3. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker 22 February 2020 10: 09
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    It was Georgia that showed that killing RUSSIANS is safe for their health !! Having shot our peacekeeping contingent from tanks, thereby violating international laws, Saakashvili did not suffer any punishment. His Russia, for the murder of our soldiers and violation of international laws, has not been put on the wanted list and has not presented any claims. And if Jews or Americans were shot like that, would Saakashvili also walk like that freely? The unpunished murder of Russian soldiers continued in Syria, even did not get off with tomatoes! Therefore, do not wishful thinking.
    1. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 22 February 2020 11: 25
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      You can also recall how the US Air Force bombed the Wagnerites in Syria.
      1. molotkov60mkpu Offline
        molotkov60mkpu (Yuri) 22 February 2020 22: 56
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        And sank the Kursk submarine.
    2. Wanderer039 Offline
      Wanderer039 22 February 2020 22: 44
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      Well, the death of Saakashvili is not the main thing here ... The main thing is the defeated and demoralized Georgian army ... Only in serviceable captured tanks in 2008 the Russian Federation captured 200 pieces ...
  4. Mikhail Petrov Offline
    Mikhail Petrov (Mikhail Petrov) 22 February 2020 10: 49
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    What's next? Turkish tomatoes and russotourist! It’s basting on Coke - start over.
  5. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 22 February 2020 11: 20
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    Quote: bear040
    One such pill would be enough for any frigate of Turkey to go to study the seabed ... In Georgia, Russia has already shown that shooting Russian soldiers is unhealthy.

    And what did she show after Turkey shot down the Su-24?
    1. Wanderer039 Offline
      Wanderer039 22 February 2020 22: 45
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      Burnt columns of Turkish fuel trucks and the corpses of Turkish soldiers guarding them.
  6. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 22 February 2020 11: 22
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    Quote: bear040
    Gauges on barmaley are not as effective as you think, and expensive ... It’s better to use volumetric bomb air bombs, so that in Turkey there is a shortage of coffins ..

    Quote: bear040
    I don’t understand why to write such nonsense, and repeating them repeatedly, under different names and sauce ?! Is this someone’s order to inspire the citizens of the Russian Federation with the idea that the Russian Federation will be able to respond to the destruction or attempt to destroy Russian troops in Syria only by transferring its additional units to Syria ?! This is nonsense, and judging by the demonstration of power that the Russian government arranged by demonstratively conducting the exercises of bombing units over the Black Sea, Moscow believes the same .. The Tu-22M3 is the carrier of the supersonic anti-ship missile system X-22 Storm, whose warhead is designed to destroy cruisers and aircraft carriers the enemy.

    As I understand it, you have a Strategic Missile Forces control panel connected directly to the sofa. soldier
  7. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 22 February 2020 11: 25
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    Quote: Mikhail Petrov
    Any such frigate in Turkey will have enough of one such pill to go to study the seabed.

    So Turkey or NATO, which is one and the same?

    This is a "couch special forces". soldier
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