Why the ruble remains stable no matter what


Despite the tightening of the sanctions regime, the ruble continues to maintain its position against the dollar. Why is our national currency avoiding the fate of the currencies of other developing countries, losing in value relative to the "American", and how long can this last?


If we compare the ruble, for example, with the Chinese yuan or the Turkish lira, then it looks like a "peppy". The Chinese currency was purposefully and consistently weakened by Beijing itself as part of a trade war with the United States. Now, the consequences of the coronavirus epidemic that threaten the Chinese economics huge losses. The Wuhan virus is far from defeated, but the yuan has already sunk to the level of seven units for one dollar.

The Turkish lira has no less problems. There is no epidemic in the country, but serious economic difficulties have long been brewing. The worsening of relations with the United States is aggravated by the war in neighboring Syria, which forces Ankara to deploy significant military contingents in Idlib and to resolve the issue of millions of Syrian refugees. Another war looms on the horizon in Turkey, already in more distant Libya, with the prospect of developing into a protracted conflict. In the aggregate, all these problems amid a decrease in the key interest rate by the Turkish Central Bank lead to a consistent drop in the lira exchange rate.

The Russian ruble stands apart so far, despite the fact that our country has been under Western sanctions for years and also participates in the Syrian campaign. What factors support the stability of the national currency of the Russian Federation?

At first, we must bow to the floor of the “oil-nurse”, which won back at the price of 11%, having risen in price from 53,1 dollars to 59,3 dollars. Relatively high oil prices support the Russian ruble.

SecondlyDue to the reduction in the key rate, a significant influx of non-residents in OFZs was noted. Foreign investors like the stability of Russian government bonds, which increases the popularity of ruble assets.

Thirdly, the government’s planned purchase of a controlling stake in Sberbank from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation may lead to a temporary decrease in the purchase of American currency.

Together, these factors maintain a stable exchange rate of the Russian ruble at an “American” price in the region of 64. However, this trend cannot continue indefinitely.

The Chinese coronavirus can begin to reduce its cost without even entering the territory of our country. Severe quarantine in China has already led to a decrease in industrial production. This will automatically entail a drop in stock market indices, as well as a decrease in oil demand. The cheapening of “black gold” will negatively affect the ruble exchange rate and will entail a growing trend for the dollar and real, yellow gold. According to some forecasts, by the end of 2020, the “American” may already cost 70-71 rubles per unit.
Photos used: https://pixabay.com/
Ctrl Enter

Noticed oshЫbku Highlight text and press. Ctrl + Enter

12 comments
Information

Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.
I have an account? Sign in

  1. 123 Offline
    123 (123) 21 February 2020 12: 35
    +3
    • 4
    • 1
    First, we must bow to the floor of the “oil-nurse”, which won back 11%, having risen in price from $ 53,1 to $ 59,3. Relatively high oil prices support the Russian ruble.

    Firstly, if I’m not mistaken in the exact amount, everything above 40 dollars automatically goes into the “little money”, this has not affected the ruble exchange rate for a long time, from the word at all. no

    Secondly, due to a decrease in the key rate, a significant influx of non-residents in OFZs was noted. Foreign investors like the stability of Russian government bonds, which increases the popularity of ruble assets.

    Secondly, in the world there is an increased demand for the assets of developing countries, including Russia, and secondly, a decrease in inflation while maintaining real interest rates, a decrease in the key rate in this case is secondary, it became possible only due to a decrease in inflation. Investors are more likely to like the increased yield, rather than the stability of government bonds.

    Thirdly, the government’s planned purchase of a controlling stake in Sberbank from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation may lead to a temporary decrease in the purchase of American currency.

    Как belay money for the purchase of Sberbank comes from the "fund". Did the money from the “capsule” be spent (planned to be spent) on the purchase of currency?
    But the ruble can indeed become cheaper, firstly, support for the high exchange rate is disadvantageous to the government, because production costs are rising and social spending is becoming more expensive. Secondly, it is planned to increase costs, therefore, the money supply will increase. The situation in China is likely to negatively affect the growth rate of the economy (I think not very much) than the ruble exchange rate.

    According to some forecasts, by the end of 2020, the “American” may already cost 70-71 rubles per unit.

    Forecasting is a thankless task, you can count on one thing, then new circumstances appear and all forecasts fly into .. winked
  2. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker 21 February 2020 13: 52
    +4
    • 4
    • 0
    In 1998, there were generally no prerequisites. It's just that the government has decided so. They know better THERE, they will not ask us. Whoever has the opportunity is better to hedge.
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) 21 February 2020 16: 30
      +1
      • 2
      • 1
      In 1998, there were generally no prerequisites. It's just that the government has decided so. They know better THERE, they will not ask us. Whoever has the opportunity is better to hedge.

      You can, of course, call money and prerequisites, although it sounds original. lol There are no prerequisites, there was no money at all. request
    2. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 22 February 2020 19: 34
      +1
      • 2
      • 1
      Quote: steel maker
      In 1998, there were generally no prerequisites.

      This is when the government took money on T-bills at 480% per annum? There were no prerequisites? Yes, the country was prepared for liquidation, they collected so many debts that they had to give up mineral resources, lands, and factories. But it did not grow together. Putin appeared and ruined everything ...
  3. Midshipman Offline
    Midshipman (Sergei) 21 February 2020 15: 18
    +1
    • 2
    • 1
    The Ukrainian hryvnia is also stable, no matter what. Who should they bow to?
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) 21 February 2020 16: 27
      +3
      • 4
      • 1
      The Ukrainian hryvnia is also stable, no matter what. Who should they bow to?

      They can be said to be kept on "artificial respiration", if anything, the device will be immediately turned off and that's it. They were already saved from default, the IMF rules were specially changed for them. They bow to whom they bow and regularly perform this ritual. yes
  4. gorenina91 Online
    gorenina91 (Irina) 21 February 2020 20: 03
    0
    • 1
    • 1
    - Yes, the whole secret of Openwork is that Russia has finally (God forbid that it always has been this way) ceased to hobnob with a cursed multi-colored Chinese candy wrapper ... -yuan ...
    - But the loss that this candy-yuan managed to inflict on the Russian economy ... - still can’t make up for anything ...
  5. Nick Offline
    Nick (Nikolai) 22 February 2020 02: 35
    0
    • 0
    • 0
    Fortune telling on coffee grounds.
  6. Sergey Latyshev Offline
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 22 February 2020 08: 58
    0
    • 1
    • 1
    Sense something. This is all PR for suckers. The ruble is stable, but everything is becoming much more expensive ..... The ruble is stable - that means the Kremlin has to keep the dollar / goods disproportion before fig dough, and still not cash in on it ....
  7. bear040 Offline
    bear040 22 February 2020 09: 56
    +3
    • 3
    • 0
    Prices are rising in Russia, which means the ruble is weakening ... it is depreciating stupidly.
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 22 February 2020 19: 36
      0
      • 1
      • 1
      In fact, price increases are the most desirable for capitalism. Allows you to redistribute cash flows. And the fall in prices - to unemployment and impoverishment.
      1. Midshipman Offline
        Midshipman (Sergei) 25 February 2020 16: 08
        +2
        • 2
        • 0
        Rising prices and wages, otherwise - inflation, is beneficial to producers and consumers, i.e. to us, and the absence of inflation or deflation is beneficial for banks, because they get more from loans issued. And the most profitable for banks and disadvantageous for the rest is what is happening with us now: on an inflationary wave, people scored loans, hoping for inflation and early repayment, and then tightened inflation. As a result, industry and the people found themselves in a credit trap, and are forced to refinance all the time in order to survive and feed banks in this way.